Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Jiřı́ Vomlel
1
Contents
• Brief introduction to Bayesian networks
2
Bayesian network
• a directed acyclic graph G = (V, E)
3
Using the chain rule we have that:
4
Example:
X1 P( X1 ) X2 P( X2 )
P( X3 | X1 )
X3 X4 P( X4 | X2 )
X5 P( X5 | X1 )
X6 P( X6 | X3 , X4 )
X7 X8 X9 P( X9 | X6 )
P( X7 | X5 ) P( X8 | X7 , X6 )
P( X1 , . . . , X9 ) =
= P( X9 | X8 , . . . , X1 ) · P( X8 | X7 , . . . , X1 ) · . . . · P( X2 | X1 ) · P( X1 )
= P( X9 | X6 ) · P( X8 | X7 , X6 ) · P( X7 | X5 ) · P( X6 | X4 , X3 )
· P( X5 | X1 ) · P( X4 | X2 ) · P( X3 | X1 ) · P( X2 ) · P( X1 )
5
Typical use of Bayesian networks
• to model and explain a domain.
6
Simplified diagnostic example
We have a patient.
Possible diagnoses: tuberculosis, lung cancer, bronchitis.
7
We don’t know anything about the pa- Patient is a smoker.
tient
8
Patient is a smoker. ... and he complains about dyspnoea
9
Patient is a smoker and complains ... and his X-ray is positive
about dyspnoea
10
Patient is a smoker and complains ... and he visited Asia recently
about dyspnoea and his X-ray is pos-
itive
11
Application 2:Decision making
The goal: maximize expected utility
12
Fixed and Adaptive Test Strategies
Q1
Q2
Q5
wrong correct
Q3
Q4 Q8
Q4
wrong correct wrong correct
Q5
Q2 Q7 Q6 Q9
Q6 wrong correct wrong correct wrong correct wrong correct
Q7 Q1 Q3 Q6 Q8 Q4 Q7 Q7 Q10
Q8
Q9
Q10
13
X2
For all nodes n of a strategy s we
have defined:
X3
X1 • evidence en , i.e. outcomes of
X2
steps performed to get to node
X3
n,
X1
• probability P(en ) of getting to
X3
X2 node n, and
X1
• utility f (en ) being a real num-
X3
ber.
X1
Let L(s) be the set of terminal
X2
X3 nodes of strategy s.
X1
Expected utility of strategy is
X2
E f (s) = ∑`∈L(s) P(e` ) · f (e` ).
14
X2
X3
X1
X2
X3
Strategy s? is optimal iff it maxi-
mizes its expected utility.
X1
X2
15
Application 3: Adaptive test of basic
operations with fractions
Examples of tasks:
3 5 1 15 1 5 1 4 1
T1 : 4 · 6 − 8 = 24 − 8 = 8 − 8 = 8 = 2
1 1 2 1 3 1
T2 : 6 + 12 = 12 + 12 = 12 = 4
1
T3 : 4 · 1 21 = 1
4 · 3
2 = 3
8
1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1
T4 : 2 · 2 · 3 + 3 = 4 · 3 = 12 = 6 .
16
Elementary and operational skills
1
CP Comparison (common nu- 2 > 13 , 2
3 > 1
3
merator or denominator)
1 2 1+2 3
AD Addition (comm. denom.) 7 + 7 = 7 = 7
2 1 2−1 1
SB Subtract. (comm. denom.) 5 − 5 = 5 = 5
1 3 3
MT Multiplication 2 · 5 = 10
1 2 3 4
CD Common denominator 2, 3 = 6, 6
4 2·2 2
CL Cancelling out 6 = 2·3 = 3
7 3·2+1
CIM Conv. to mixed numbers 2 = 2 = 3 12
17
Misconceptions
Label Description Occurrence
a c a+c
MAD b + d = b+d 14.8%
MSB a
− = ba−
c −c 9.4%
b d d
MMT1 a
b · bc = ab·c 14.1%
MMT2 a
b · bc = ab+·bc 8.1%
MMT3 a
b · dc = ab··dc 15.4%
MMT4 a
b · dc = ba+·cd 8.1%
MC a bc = ac·b 4.0%
18
Student model
HV2 HV1
AD SB CMI CIM CL CD MT
CP
19
Evidence model for task T1
3 5 1 15 1 5 1 4 1
· − = − = − = =
4 6 8 24 8 8 8 8 2
T1 ⇔ MT & CL & ACL & SB & ¬ MMT3 & ¬ MMT4 & ¬ MSB
CL ACL MT
SB MMT4
MSB T1 MMT3
P(X1 | T1)
X1
Hugin: model-hv-2.net
20
Using information gain as the utility function
“The lower the entropy of a probability distribution the more we know.”
entropy
0.5
0
0 0.5 1
probability
21
Skill Prediction Quality
92
adaptive
average
90 descending
ascending
88
Quality of skill predictions
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Number of answered questions
22
Application 4: Troubleshooting
23
Application 2: Troubleshooting - Light print problem
Actions
Faults
A1
F1
A2
Problem F2
F A3
F3
Questions
F4 Q1
24
Troubleshooting strategy
A1 = yes A2 = yes
A1 = no A2 = no
Q1 = no A1 A2
Q1
A2 = no A1 = no
Q1 = yes A2 A1
A2 = yes A1 = yes
25
Expected cost of repair for a given strategy
26
Commercial applications of Bayesian networks in
educational testing and troubleshooting
• Hugin Expert A/S.
software product: Hugin - a Bayesian network tool.
http://www.hugin.com/
• Educational Testing Service (ETS)
the world’s largest private educational testing organization
Research unit doing research on adaptive tests using Bayesian
networks: http://www.ets.org/research/
• SACSO Project
Systems for Automatic Customer Support Operations
- research project of Hewlett Packard and Aalborg University.
The troubleshooter offered as DezisionWorks by Dezide Ltd.
http://www.dezide.com/
27