KPChun 2012 Mulitivariate Boreal

A multivariate investigation of the
Canadian Climate Model (CCCma)

simulations and boreal forest flux tower
observations in Saskatchewan
K.P. Chun1, H.S. Wheater1 and A. Barr2
1Global Institute for Water Security
2Climate Processes Section, Environment Canada
7th June 2012

www.usask.ca
Outline
Background
Multivariate Analysis
a)
b)
c)
Visualisation
Hypothesis testing
Principal component analysis
Future work
www.usask.ca
Background
The Boreal Ecosystem Research and

Monitoring Sites (BERMS) in
Saskatchewan
Previously, flux towers from

Canadian Carbon Program(CCP)
Three operating towers are in sites

dominated by Old Aspen (OA), Old
Black Spruce (OBS) and Old Jack
Pine (OJP)
www.usask.ca
Data Sources
High Frequency Stand Data
Climate Data
Carbon Flux
Additional Gridded Data
CGCM3
Spatial scale (~200-500km)
www.usask.ca
20
10
0
-10
Temperature
-20
Rel. Humidity
4.0 40 50 60 70 80 90
3.5
3.0
Wind
2.5
150
100
Correlated
50
Radiation
Seasonality
95.0
Important input of
evaporation and snowmelt
model
94.6
94.2
Multiple climate time series

measured simultaneously
Surface Pressure
93.8
Multivariate Data
OA series
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Time
www.usask.ca
20
10
0
-10
Temperature
-20
Identify possible model

strategies
Rel. Humidity
4.0 40 50 60 70 80 90
Assess data quality
3.5
3.0
Perceive the structure or

pattern of the data
100
50
95.0
94.6
94.2
93.8
Surface Pressure
Radiation
150
2.5
Wind
Visualisation
OA series
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Time
www.usask.ca
2.0
94.2
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
95.0
50
100
Radiation
3.0
150
3.5
Wind Speed
2.5
94.6
Surface Pressure
93.8
2.5
4.0
3.0
Wind
Rel. Humidity
4.0 40 50 60 70 80 90
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
30
Time
Temperature
www.usask.ca
Rel. Humidity
3.5
-20
-10
10
Temperature
20
Scatter Plots
OA series
2.0
94.2
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
95.0
50
100
Radiation
3.0
150
3.5
Wind Speed
2.5
94.6
Surface Pressure
93.8
2.5
4.0
3.0
Wind
Rel. Humidity
4.0 40 50 60 70 80 90
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
30
Time
Temperature
www.usask.ca
Rel. Humidity
3.5
-20
-10
10
Temperature
20
Scatter Plots
OA series
2.0
94.2
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
95.0
50
100
Radiation
3.0
150
3.5
Wind Speed
2.5
94.6
Surface Pressure
93.8
2.5
4.0
3.0
Wind
Rel. Humidity
4.0 40 50 60 70 80 90
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
30
Time
Temperature
www.usask.ca
Rel. Humidity
3.5
-20
-10
10
Temperature
20
Scatter Plots
OA series
-30
94.2
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
-10
50
150
2.5
3.0
3.5
10
Wind
Temperature
100
Radiation
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2.0
Time
Rel. Humidity
www.usask.ca
Wind Speed
95.0
-20
94.6
Surface Pressure
93.8
Rel. Humidity
20
4.0 40 50 60 70 80 90
30
-20
-10
10
Temperature
20
Scatter Plots
OA series
20
Scatter Plots
8e-04
0.00
1
10
30
0.0012
0.001
-10
-20
6e-04
4e-04
8e-04
-20
3.5
Wind Speed
0
-10
4.0
2e-04
3.0
2.5
40
-30
Temperature
10
Temperature
20
0.001
50
60
70
80
90
100
2.0
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Rel. Humidity
Rel. Humidity
www.usask.ca
20
Density Plot
8e-04
10
0.00
14
0.0012
density
-10
0.001
6e-04
4e-04
8e-04
-20
Temperature
0.001
Te
pe
m
2e-04
r
tu
ra
50
60
70
80
90
40
100
Rel. Humidity
Rel. Humidity
www.usask.ca
Comparable Climate Variables

OA
-2
-2
-1.0
-3
-3
-1.0
0
-1.5
-3
-2
OBS
-1
OJP
Temperature
2
1
0
Surface Pressure
Radiation
-2
1.0
1.5
1.0
-1
1
0
-1
2.0
1.5
0.5
0.0
0.5
-0.5
-2
-3
0.0
-1.0
-0.5
-1.5
-1.5
-2
-1
Temperature
-3
-1.0
-4
Surface Pressure
Temperature
Radiation
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.5
-1
Radiation
1
0
0.5
-2
2.0
1.0
0.0
-0.5
-3
2.0
1.5
-1
1.0
Surface Pressure
Radiation
1
0
2.0
1.5
-1
Surface Pressure
CGCM3
-2.0
-3
-2
-1
Temperature
www.usask.ca

OA
0.5
1.0
1.5
Temperature
0.0
Temperature
-0.5
-2
-2
-3
-3
-2
-1.0
0
-1
-3
-1.5
Surface Pressure
0
-1
0
-1
2
1
-1
2
1
-2
Surface Pressure
Temperature
CGCM3
2.0
-1.5
-3
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
OJP
Radiation
2
1
0
Surface Pressure
1
0
-1
-2
Temperature
1
0
-1
-1
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
Radiation
1.0
1.5
2.0
-2
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
Surface Pressure
OBS
Radiation
-2.0
-3
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Radiation
www.usask.ca

OA
0
-1
Temperature
0
-2
-2
-1
Temperature
CGCM3
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
Radiation
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Radiation
OJP
-1
Temperature
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-2
-1.5
-2.0
Temperature
0.5
1.0
1.5
OBS
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
Radiation
0.5
1.0
1.5
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Radiation
www.usask.ca
Incomparable Climate Variables

OA
Temperature
Temperature
2
1
-1
Wind
2
1
Wind
Tempeature
CGCM3
-2
0
-1
-3
-1
-1
-4
-3
-2
-1
-2
-4
-2
-2
-3
3
-3
-3
-2
-1
Rel. Humidity
Rel. Humidity
OJP
-3
-2
-1
Rel. Humidity
Wind
-1
-2
0
-1
-3
-3
-1
-2
-2
-4
-2
1
0
Temperature
-1
-4
Wind
OBS
-3
-2
-1
Rel. Humidity
www.usask.ca
Incomparable Climate Variables

OA
0
-1
Temperature
0
-2
-2
-1
Temperature
CGCM3
-3
-2
-1
-2
-1
Rel. Humidity
Rel. Humidity
OJP
-1
Temperature
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-2
-1.5
-2.0
Temperature
0.5
1.0
1.5
OBS
-2
-1
0
Rel. Humidity
-2
-1
Rel. Humidity
www.usask.ca
Scatterplot Matrix
OA
-1.5 -0.5
0.5
1.5
-2
OBS
-1.5 -0.5
0.5
1.5
Temp
-2.0
-2
-1
Temp
-1
1.5
-0.5 0.5
-2 -1 0
R. Hum
0.1
0.14
-1
0.06
0.06
0.
08
1
-2 -1 0
0.0
0.02
R. Hum
0.02
0.1
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.02
-1
0.08
0.04
Wind
0.
06
Wind
0.
08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.04
0.1
0.02
0.06
0.0
0.04
0.02
0.0
8 0.06
0.05
0.06
-1
0.02
SurP
0.02
0.08
0.04
0.04
0.02
-3
0.02
0.02
0.04
0.0
0.08
0.1
0.04
0.06
0.04
0.05
SurP
0.06
0.1
-1
0.02
0.1
-3
8
0.0
0.05
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.05
Rad
0.08
0.1
-1.5 -0.5
0.1
0.04
0.15
1 2 3
0.5
Rad
0.06
0.1
-1.5 -0.5
1.5
0.04
0.1
0.5
1.5
-3
-3
0.02
1 2
0.04
0.1
-1
0.02
1 2 3
-2
0.04
-2
-1
-3
-1
1 2 3
-3
-1
1 2 3
-2.0
-0.5 0.5 1.5
-3
-1
1 2
-3
-1
www.usask.ca
Scatterplot Matrix
1
CGCM3
-1.0
0.0
1.0
-2 -1 0
OA
-1.5 -0.5
0.5
1.5
Temp
-2
2
-2
-1
-1
Temp
-3 -2 -1 0
0.04
0.03
1.5
-1
-3
-1 0
-2 -1 0
0.0
0.05
0.02
SurP
0.04
0.04
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.04
0.0
0.02
0.06
0.04
-1
0.06
1 2 3
-3
0.1
2 3
0.1
6
0.0 0.04
0.04
0.04
SurP
0.1
0.05
0.1
-1
0.02
0.0
8
Rad
0.08
0.02
-2
0.5
0.02
0.04
0.1
-1.5 -0.5
0.08
06
0.
08
0.
0.0
0.04
0.02
0.06
0.02
0.08
0.08
0.1
0.02
0.06
0.1
0.02
0.08
0.04
-2 -1 0
0.1 0.06
0.05
Rad
0.08
0.06
0.1
Wind
0.
06
0.06
0.0
0.04
0.06
0.1
-1.0
0.04
0.08
1.0
0.1
0.06
0.02
0.04
0.1
-1 0
1
0.
0.08
0.02
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.06
0.14
0.06
Wind
0.04
0.02
0.0
8
1 2 3
0.08
0.01
R. Hum
R. Hum
-2 -1 0
-3 -2 -1 0
0.05
04
0.
0.02
-2
-1
-3
-1
1 2 3
-3
-1
1 2 3
www.usask.ca
Scatterplot Matrix
1
CGCM3
-1.0
0.0
1.0
-3
-1.5 -0.5
CGCM3 2085-2100
0.5
1.5
Temp
-3 -2 -1 0
R. Hum
0.08
0.03
0.06
0.02
-1
6
0.0 0.04
-1 0
2 3
-2 -1 0
0.1
0.05
0.06
2
1
-1 0
0.06
0.1
0.08
0.02
0.02
0.04
0.1
Rad
0.06
0.02
0.0
0.04
0.0
6
0.08
0.02
0.
08
SurP
0.02
0.06
-3
0.0
8
0.04
0.05
-1 0 1 2
SurP
0.06
1.5
0.5
-1.5 -0.5
0.02
0.04
0.04
0.15
0.1
-2
0.02
06
0.
08
0.
0.0
0.04
0.1
0.
04
0.02
0.08
0.02
0.06
0.02
0.02
0.1
0.02
0.02
0.04
0.05
0.08
0.06
-2 -1 0
0.1 0.06
0.06
0.1
Rad
0.08
0.08
1.0
0.04
0.06
0.1
0.0
0.04
08
0.
-1 0
0.02
0.1
0.06
0.06
1
0.
0.08
0.02
-1.0
0.04
0.04
0.08
0.06
Wind
Wind
0.04
-3
0.01
R. Hum
0.04
0.08
0.05
04
0.
0.02
-1 0 1 2
-2
-2
-1
-1
Temp
-1 0 1 2
-3 -2 -1 0
-2
-1
-1 0
-3
-1 0 1 2
www.usask.ca
Hypothesis testing
A log-likelihood ratio test
2 =
=
=1
=1
Boxs M test
1
( 1)
=
=1
www.usask.ca
Hypothesis testing results

Data
p value
Likelihood
Box M
CGCM3
CGCM3 (Interpolation based on Leith (2005))
0.3163
0.2834
CGCM3
CGCM3 (1850-1865)
0.3768
0.3422
CGCM3
OA
OA
OBS
CGCM3 (2085-2100)
OBS
OJP
OJP
0.7608
0.0119
0.0001
0.9721
0.7345
0.0082
0.0000
0.9653
CGCM3
OA
0.0000
0.0000
CGCM3
OBS
0.0000
0.0000
CGCM3
OJP
0.0000
0.0000
CGCM3
(OA+OBS+OJP)/3
0.0000
0.0000
www.usask.ca
Principal Component Analysis

-2
OJP
-1.5 -0.5 0.5
1.5
-2
-1
Temp
0.05
R. Hum
0.1
0.04
0.1
0.02
0.05
6
0.0
Wind
0.15
0.02
0.1
Rad
0.1
1.5
-3
0.08
-1 0 1 2
-2
-1
0.1
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.
06
0.05
0.04
SurP
0.04
0.04
0.02
-2
-1
0.02
-3
-1 0 1 2
8
0.0
0.06
0.02
-2
0.0
0.0
0.04
0.02
0.06
0.0
0.04
0 1 2 3
0.05
0.1
Linear combination of
climate variables to linear
independent components
Using the correlation
matrix of the five climate
variables to compute the
eigenvalues for the five
components
-1.5 -0.5
-1
-2
0 1 2 3
www.usask.ca
0.0
0.5
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
CGCM3
Boreal data
1
2
3
PC
4
5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Cumul. Explained Variance
0.1
Prop. Explained Variance
1.0
0.6
Principal Component Analysis
CGCM3
Boreal data
1
2
3
4
5
PC
www.usask.ca
Frist and Second Components

CGCM3
0.0
0.5
OA
0.0
-0.5
0.5
0.5
Wind
SurP
0.0
PC2
0.0
PC2
SurP
0.5
1.0
-0.5
-0.5
Rad
R. Hum
Rad
Temp
-1
-1
R. Hum
-1.0
-2
-2
-0.5
Wind
-3
Temp
-1
-3
-2
-1
PC1
OBS
0.5
Rad
Wind
Temp
-0.5
-1.0
-2
-3
-1.5
-1.0
PC2
0.0
SurP
0.5
0.5
R. Hum
-1.5
-0.5
0
PC1
0.0
1.0
3
2
1
PC2
0
-1
-2
-3
-1
OJP
-0.5
Rad
Wind
Temp
R. Hum
-2
1.5
0.5
SurP
-3
-1
0.0
1.5
-0.5
0
PC1
1.0
-2
0.0
-3
-3
-2
-1
PC1
www.usask.ca
Second and Third Components

-1.0
-0.5
CGCM3
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
-2
OA
-1
0.0
Temp
R. Hum
Rad
-0.5
SurP
PC3
Wind
Rad
Temp
SurP
-2
-1.5
-2
-1
-1
Wind
-1.0
-1
PC3
R. Hum
0.5
1.0
1.5
-1.5
-3
-2
-1
-2
-1
PC2
2
-3
-2
-1
OJP
3
1.0
OBS
1.0
-1
0.5
-2
0.5
-3
PC2
0.0
SurP
R. Hum
-0.5
-0.5
PC3
SurP
-1
0.0
Rad
Temp
-1
R. Hum
-3
-2
-1
0
PC2
-2
-1.0
Wind
-1.0
Wind
-2
PC3
Temp
Rad
-3
-2
-1
PC2
www.usask.ca
Conclusions (1 of 2)
Temperature, Radiation and Surface Pressure of the CGCM3 and

Flux tower data are fairly consistent each other.
Relatively humidity and wind speed may be problematic
Using CGCM3 data for hydrological or ecological modelling may

need to further consider the implications of the inadequate
climate variable correlation structure.
Simple bias correction does not help the current problem
www.usask.ca
Conclusions (2 of 2)
Improving local feedback processes related to relative humidity,

wind and plant in the climate models may help to assuage the
current observed discrepancy.
Stochastic processes may be used to reconcile or downscale

wind and relatively humidity field based on empirical relationship
between flux tower data and climate model outputs.
Continue monitoring is important
www.usask.ca

KPChun 2012 Mulitivariate Boreal

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KPChun 2012 Mulitivariate Boreal

Enviado por

Direitos autorais:

Formatos disponíveis

A multivariate investigation of the

Canadian Climate Model (CCCma)

7th June 2012

The Boreal Ecosystem Research and

Previously, flux towers from

Three operating towers are in sites

High Frequency Stand Data

Additional Gridded Data

Multiple climate time series

Identify possible model

Assess data quality

Perceive the structure or

Comparable Climate Variables

Comparable Climate Variables

Comparable Climate Variables

Incomparable Climate Variables

Incomparable Climate Variables

-0.5 0.5 1.5

A log-likelihood ratio test

Hypothesis testing results

CGCM3 (Interpolation based on Leith (2005))

Principal Component Analysis

-1.5 -0.5 0.5

Cumul. Explained Variance

Prop. Explained Variance

Principal Component Analysis

Frist and Second Components

Second and Third Components

Temperature, Radiation and Surface Pressure of the CGCM3 and

Relatively humidity and wind speed may be problematic

Using CGCM3 data for hydrological or ecological modelling may

Simple bias correction does not help the current problem

Improving local feedback processes related to relative humidity,

Stochastic processes may be used to reconcile or downscale

Continue monitoring is important

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