Jim Cast

Headquarters, Washington, D.C

August 19, 1994

(Phone: 202/358-1600)

RELEASE: 94-136

NEW DATA BRIGHTENS DEBRIS OUTLOOK FOR SPACE STATION

Recent results from powerful radar measurements of orbital

debris are good news for the International Space Station.

NASA has just completed the third year of a campaign

measuring and monitoring the orbital debris environment using the
Haystack Orbital Debris Radar. The Haystack Radar is operated
for NASA by the MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, Mass. This
powerful radar can detect debris objects that are as small as a
pea (about 1/4 inch in diameter) orbiting 400 miles out in space.

The orbital debris population measured by Haystack has been

compared with predictions of the orbital debris environment based
on the NASA "Engineering Model". This model was developed using
measurements and data on the debris environment collected prior
to 1988. The measured orbital debris population differed from
NASA's predictions over all altitudes that were studied using
the Haystack Radar.

At low altitudes (250-400 miles) the measured debris

population was below predicted levels. Thus, this measurement
campaign brings good news to the International Space Station.
According to George Levin, NASA's Orbital Debris Program Manager,
Washington, D.C., engineers and scientists believe there are
three major reasons why their earlier predictions overestimated
the Space Station debris population.

"The first reason for this improvement in the orbital debris

environment is the success of NASA's Orbital Debris Mitigation
Program. Since 1987, following the explosion of an orbiting 3rd
stage rocket belonging to the European Space Agency (ESA), NASA
has made a concerted effort to inform other spacefaring nations
of the hazards to spacecraft resulting from these types of
explosions. As a result of these efforts ESA, Japan, China and
Russia have all joined NASA in modifying the designs of their
launch vehicles and their satellites to minimize the possibility
of future accidental explosions in space," said Levin.

A second reason for the improvement in the environment in

this region of space can be traced to the major economic and
political upheaval that occurred here on Earth during the last
decade.

The end of the cold war saw a dramatic reduction in Russia's

military space program. In previous years many intentional
explosions of satellites on orbit were attributed to the Russian
military space program.

The testing of anti-satellite weapons by both the United

States and Russia is believed to be another military space
activity which contributed to the low-Earth orbital debris
population during the early to mid-80's. The cessation of these
anti-satellite tests by both the United States and Russia has
helped to reduce the growth of orbital debris.

A third reason for the improvement in the low-altitude space

environment also can be attributed to these same economic and
political changes. The world-wide launch rate has fallen almost
40 % in the last nine years (from 129 launches in 1984 to 79
launches in 1993).

Levin explained that, "The forces of nature play a large

role in affecting the debris environment in low-Earth orbit.
Objects in these low (250-400 mile) orbits are affected by
changes in the solar cycle. During the peak of the solar cycle
the density of the atmosphere increases at these altitudes.
This increased density acts to slow down the orbiting debris
objects, causing them to re-enter the atmosphere. Thus, much of
the debris injected into the proposed Space Station orbit during
the early to mid-80's reentered during the unusually strong peak
associated with the last solar cycle."

Of increasing concern to NASA is the orbital debris

population measured by the Haystack Orbital Debris Radar at
higher altitudes (500-650 miles). In these orbits debris was
found to be greater than NASA's predictions. Objects
in these orbits are not significantly affected by changes in
solar activity. Thus, the lifetime of debris in these orbits can
exceed 1000 years. The long orbital life at these high altitudes
also means that debris in these orbits will not pose a hazard to
the Space Station. However, these orbits are important for
scientific, Earth observation, weather and communications
satellites.

NASA Administrator Daniel S. Goldin has directed NASA

engineers and scientists to focus increased attention on these
orbits. NASA must first understand the cause of the increased
debris population in the 500-650 mile altitude regime. Only then
is it possible to determine the actions required to control the
growth of debris in this economically important area of space.

In addition the NASA Administrator has reaffirmed the space

agency's commitment to continue to work, both within the U.S.
Government as well as with other spacefaring nations, to protect
the space environment for future generations.

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