Table of Contents

Part 1: Strategic Issues & Forecasts for the Space Industry

Current trends in satellite manufacturing & launch services
Past decade closed as it started, whatever the metrics (number of satellites, mass to orbit and revenues) 2009 activity above 2008 Variations in launch tempo driven by the pace of satellite orders and the availability of launch vehicles The 4th cycle in commercial GEO comsats is driven by the replacement of satellite capacity Future satellite demand continues to be driven by the governments, especially for civilian use Growth in demand for commercial satellites also driven by non-geostationary orbits in addition to GEO Over 50% growth in the number of satellites to be launched in 2010-2019 over past decade Mass to be orbited due to increase by 45% in 2010-2019 Industry revenues to grow by 50% in 2010-2019

Market drivers for future satellite demand

The upstream and downstream satellite markets
Three orbits used by three types of satellite customers: military, civilian and commercial Demand differs between government and commercial satellite operators The value chain in satellite services provided by government and commercial satellite operators Long term future demand only partly driven by the satellite projects known today

Innovation is the satellite market driver

Tremendous growth in productivity of GEO satellites permitted by technology advances Technical innovation also for LEO satellites bring launch mass down Innovation not just technological, also for the financing of satellite systems

Insurance as a satellite market enabler

In-orbit risk coverage options augment with size of satellite fleets Price of launch insurance below 10% ?
Full Page Graphs & Tables Strategic Issues & Forecasts for the Satellite and Launch Industry Distribution by client, 2000-2009 & forecasts to 2019 - Number of satellites launched per year - Mass of satellites launched per year - Satellite manufacturing and launch market value per year Distribution by orbit, 2000-2009 & forecasts to 2019 - Number of satellites launched per year - Mass of satellites launched per year - Satellite manufacturing and launch market value per year - Number of commercial satellites launched per year - Mass of commercial satellites launched per year - Commercial satellite manufacturing & launch market value per year - Number of government satellites launched per year - Mass of government satellites launched per year - Governement satellite manufacturing & launch market value per year Distribution by orbit x client, 2010-2019 - Satellite manufacturing market by market accessibility - Launch market by market accessibility - Satellite manufacturing & launch market in number of satellites - Satellite manufacturing & launch market in kg - Satellite manufacturing market in value - Launch market in value Trends in commercial space - Two decades of GEO satellite distributed by client: 1999-2009 and 2010-2019 - Launch and order rates for commercial GEO satellites, 1995-2009 - The three value chains in commercial satellite applications (2009) - Trend in launch mass of commercial GEO satellites, 1998-2011 - Satellite losses in the past three years

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Part 2: Competitive Environment & Performances of Market Players

The satellite manufacturing industry
Structure of the satellite manufacturing industry More competition in GEO comsats manufacturing
Manufacturers of non-GEO satellites develop on domestic and export markets

Trends in industry financial performance

2009 revenues of the industry Profitability of the industry Prospects for revenue growth of the industry

Market shares for the commercial satellite market

Market shares for the commercial GEO market Positioning of players in the LEO/MEO market Positioning of market players for new generation GEO satellite systems

Strategic initiatives in the satellite manufacturing industry

Opportunistic partnerships between satellite manufacturers Competition between manufacturers is not just on technology terms Public-Private Partnerships and hosted payloads for government investment in satellite capabilities Going down in the value chain to deliver satellite-based services Ability to deliver backlog of orders on time Politics and regulations impact the competitive landscape Exchange rates: an issue for a limited number of manufacturers Adverse financing environment delays investment or makes it more costly, but not for all projects

Key issues for the short term of the industry

The launch service industry

Launch capability development driven by governments Size and growth of the launch market
2009 revenues of the launch industry Prospects for revenue growth of the launch industry

Launch market by orbit

Geostationary orbit remains by far the largest launch market Low Earth orbit on par with medium Earth orbit

Market shares for the commercial GTO launch market Key issues for the short term
Adapting GTO launch capacity to demand variations Balancing government and commercial launch requirements

Full Page Graphs & Tables - Competitive Environment & Performances of Market Players Current and future supply - GEO satellite platforms excluding Russian-made - Growth in GEO satellites masses driven by US operators - Accessibility of satellite manufacturing market by orbit: 2010-2019 - Accessibility of the launch market by orbit: 2010-2019 - Current & future expendable launch vehicles: 1960-2015 - Launch rates of GTO-capable launch vehicles: 1996-2009 - Total mass launched per GTO-capable launch vehicles 1978-2009 - Distribution by launch vehicle of the small satellites launched 2000-2009 & forecasts to 2019 - Satellite manufacturing & launch market value for commercial & government customers per year - Satellite manufacturing versus launch market value per year - Market shares for GEO/HEO commercial satellite manufacturing - Market shares for commercial launches to all orbits Growth in launch mass of GEO satellites, 1999-2012 - launched by Ariane - launched by Proton - launched by Sea Launch and Land Launch - launched by Atlas - launched by Asian launch vehicles (GSLV, H2, Long March)

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Part 3: Commercial Satellite Demand

Demand context for commercial satellites
Four market drivers for commercial satellite applications Scalability of the investment drives orbit choice for comsat

Assumptions for commercial demand

Number of satellites to be launched Satellite launch mass Specific prices ($ per kg)

The commercial market by orbit

Geostationary orbit is the primary destination of commercial satellites The commercial GEO comsat industry is still in its fourth demand cycle Future demand for commercial GEO comsats is driven by the balance between
increasingly productive satellites consolidation of operators and new entrants

Peak in launch demand in 2011-2012 and low in the 4th demand cycle of the end of the decade Highly elliptical orbit remains a niche market for commercial satellites MEO becomes a commercial market with O3b Earth observation satellites add to the second generation of three LEO comsat constellations Earth observation satellite systems specialize to produce more commercial optical & radar imagery

Full Page Graphs & Tables Commercial Satellite Demand Market drivers - Four decades of new services for communications &broadcasting - The cyclicality of the commercial GEO/HEO comsat market 2000-2009 and forecasts to 2019 - Range in commercial GEO comsat masses: 1999-2013 - Range in commercial FSS/BSS GEO comsat power: 1996-2009 - Growth in design lifetime Western-made GEO comsat: 1967-2009 - Growth in comsat productivity (more bandwidth + longer lifetime) - Cumulated capex for the largest commercial comsat operators - Growth in transponders capacity per GEO comsat: 1967-2009 - Transponders of commercial GEO comsat launched and retired per year: 1967-2009 - Firm orders per year for commercial GEO comsat: 1996-2009 - The pros & cons in growing launch mass of commercial GEO satellite - Launch mass distribution of the order book of civilian GEO comsat under construction (As of mid- 2010) - The 50 commercial comsat operators in activity - Concentration of GEO satellite demand: the top ten operators - Demand model by year of commercial GEO/HEO satellites: 2010-19 - Two decades of commercial LEO satellites - The three commercial constellations of LEO comsat - Demand model per year for commercial LEO satellites (comsat and Earth observation): 2009-2019 - Commercial satellite Earth observation companies Distribution by application, 2000-2009 & forecasts to 2019 - Number and mass of commercial GEO comsat - Satellite manufacturing market for GEO comsat - Launch market for GEO comsat Distribution by client region, 2000-2009 & forecasts to 2019 - Number and mass of commercial GEO comsat - Satellite manufacturing market for GEO comsat - Launch market for GEO comsat Distribution by orbit, 2000-2009 & forecasts to 2019 - Number and mass of commercial satellites - Satellite manufacturing market for commercial satellites - Launch market for commercial satellites

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Part 4: Government Satellite Demand

Assumptions for government demand
Number of satellites to be launched Satellite launch mass Specific prices ($ per kg)

The Government Market

Market hierarchy between customers, applications and regions Market dynamics by orbit
Growth in demand for GEO satellites driven by civilian government for meteo, navigation, technology Military satellites in GEO predominantly for satcom services but applications diversify MEO/HEO satellites historically used by the US DoD and the CIS The MEO market enlarges with the replacement of GPS and Glonass and two new systems (Galileo & Compass) Quasi-zenith satellites to optimize national navigational services in Asia The strong growth in the LEO market is driven by civilian government agencies Demand for Earth observation in LEO has multiple forms Military use of LEO diversifies outside imagery intelligence Government innovate to maximize the capex efficiency of their LEO satellites systems Smallsats for emergent national space programs Deep space missions for science and exploration

Full Page Graphs & Tables Government Satellite Demand Market drivers - Demand model in number of civilian ad military government satellites per year by orbit: 2010-2019 - Two decades of civilian & military government satellites
- By application - By customer region

Distribution by client, 2000-2009 & forecasts to 2019 - Number and mass of government satellites - Satellite manufacturing market for government satellites - Launch market for government satellites Distribution by orbit, 2000-2009 & forecasts to 2019 - Number of civilian and military government satellites - Mass of civilian and military government satellites - Satellite manufacturing market for civilian & military govt satellites - Launch market for civilian and military government satellites Distribution by application, 2000-2009 & forecasts to 2019 - Number of civilian and military government satellites - Mass of civilian and military government satellites - Satellite manufacturing market for civilian & military satellites - Launch market for civilian and military satellites

World government spending for civil & military space: 1980-2017 Trend in launch mass of government GEO satellites: 1998-2015 Trend in launch mass of MEO/HEO satellites: 1996-2015 Trend in launch mass of civilian LEO satellites: 1996-2015

Distribution by region, 2000-2009 & forecasts to 2019 - Number and mass of civilian government satellites - Satellite manufacturing market for civilian government satellites - Launch market for civilian government satellites - Number and mass of military government satellites - Satellite manufacturing market for military government satellites - Launch market for military government satellites

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Part 5: Company Profiles

This part is comprised of eight company profiles, a Euroconsult exclusive: Astrium Satellites Arianespace Boeing ILS Lockheed Martin Loral Space and Communications Orbital Sciences Corporation Thales Alenia Space Each company is includes a comprehensive analysis: Company history Shareholders and subsidiaries Financials (space division(s)) Product offering in satellite manufacturing and /or satellite or launch service Commercial performance in satellite manufacturing and /or launch service

Part 6: Satellite Backlog & Forecast

This part is made of two databases exclusive to Euroconsult:
The first database is a backlog of the 85 commercial GEO satellites under construction as of mid-2010 (+ 170 non-GEO satellites) for launch up to 2015. It is a complement to the market forecast established by Euroconsult on the number and types of commercial satellites to be manufactured for launch by 2019. The second database is Euroconsults forecast of the 800 government satellites to be launched worldwide during 20102019, including the nominative satellites under construction as of mid-2010, and those that are planned to be launched by 2019 as follow-on of existing systems or as new systems.

For each satellite, the following information is provided: Name of the satellite mission
Year of launch Name and country of the operator Application of the satellite Orbit of the satellite Satellite manufacturer Satellite bus Design lifetime of the satellite Launch mass of the satellite Launch service provider Launch vehicle

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