Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Lieberman-Warner Aff
1AC 1-8
Solvency
Plan Solves Warming 9
A/T “Europe Proves Cap-and-trade fails” 10
A/T “Other Countries Will Emit” 11-12
A/T “Reduction Targets Not Strict Enough” 13
Disads
A/T “Economy DAs” 14-16
A/T “Price Volatility DA”
Not Unique 17
Link Answers 18
A/T “Spending” 19
Counterplans
A/T “Carbon Tax CP” 20-22
A/T “States CP” 23-24
1
SDI 2008 Opening Packet
Lieberman-Warner Aff
1AC
Contention One is Inherency.
The Lieberman-Warner cap and trade bill on carbon emissions was recently defeated in the
Senate- other efforts to combat global warming will meet a similar fate
Politico 6/11/08 (Climate change in '09?, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0608/10989.html)
The Senate global warming bill may be six feet under, but the tears have already dried along K Street as lobbyists set their sights on the next
administration. Regardless of who claims the White House this fall, climate change legislation is all but certain to be a top priority next year.
Environmental lobbyists have already swung their focus around from the Senate to the
House, from which the next big bill is predicted to emerge. Maintaining momentum from the old bill is key,
they say, and members can expect a push this summer that is nothing short of global warming boot camp. “All the lobbying interests working on
Lieberman-Warner are turning their sights to the House side,” said Friends of the Earth Legislative Director Shawnee Hoover. “If we don’t get
started on the House now, they
won’t be able to pass a bill next year.” The Lieberman-Warner
climate change bill died a short, painful death on the Senate floor after Republicans forced clerks to read
the entire 492-page bill and supporters were unable to muster the 60 votes needed to thwart a filibuster. Now on the House drawing board is a
round of new climate change bills, and one could be unveiled by the end of the month, according to Friends of the Earth, which is contributing to
the legislation. No
one expects the legislation to become law this year. Instead, the bills will serve as a
training round for the House, which never got to consider the Senate bill. It will be an
uphill climb. The bills are expected to be even tougher than Lieberman-Warner on emission reductions and cap-and-trade auctions. A bill
recently introduced by Rep. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) would reduce greenhouse gas emission levels to 85 percent below 1990 levels — more
aggressive than the 70 percent allowed in the bill by Sens. Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.) and John Warner (R-Va.).
There is no longer any real question that global warming is occurring as the result of the
rapid build-up of greenhouse gases primarily caused by human activities. We are on a
trajectory for global warming to become much more intense unless we begin a concerted,
rapid shift toward a low-carbon economy. And the danger is increasingly clear and present. As Rajendra
Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize,
has said, “If there’s no action before 2012, that’s too late. What we do in the next two to three
years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.”
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SDI 2008 Opening Packet
Lieberman-Warner Aff
1AC
Global warming causes disease spread, environmental damage, and escalating regional
conflicts
Podesta, Stern, and Batten 2007 (John, Todd, and Kit, President, Managing Director for Energy and Environmental Policy, and
Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress, Capturing the Energy Opportunity, November 2007, Accessed May 15, 2008,
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/11/pdf/energy_chapter.pdf)
Climate change presents the United States with multiple foreign policy challenges quite apart
from those directly connected to our nation’s deepening dependence on imported oil, which we will detail shortly. These
challenges include, for example, increased border stress resulting from the impact of climate change-induced storms and droughts
in Mexico and the Caribbean. Or consider the complications posed by ever-scarcer water supplies to
political progress in the Middle East. Perhaps the greatest climate change-induced geopolitical
challenge in the shortterm, though, will arise in the developing countries in the earth’s low
latitudes. In these countries, even a relatively small climatic shift can trigger or exacerbate
food shortages, water scarcity, the spread of disease, and natural resource competition.
Such conditions fuel political turmoil, drive already weak states toward collapse, and
threaten regional stability. According to a recent report by 11 former Army generals and Navy admirals, climate
change is a “threat multiplier for instability” in volatile parts of the world.16 Nigeria and East Africa
pose particularly acute challenges. Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, will confront intense drought, desertification, and sea-level rise in the
coming years. Already, approximately 1,350 square miles of Nigerian land turns to desert each year, forcing both farmers and herdsmen to
abandon their homes.17 Lagos, the largest Nigerian city, is one of the West African coastal megacities that the IPCC identifies as at risk from sea-
level rise by 2015.18 These conditions, coupled with rapid population growth projections, are likely to force significant human migration and
contribute to regional political and economic turmoil. The threat of regional turmoil is higher yet in East Africa because of the concentration of
weak or failing states, numerous unresolved political conflicts, and the severe effects of climate change. Climate change will likely create large
fluctuations in the amount of rainfall in East Africa during the next 30 years—a 5 percent to 20 percent increase in rainfall during the winter
months would cause flooding and soil erosion, while a 5 percent to 10 percent decrease in the summer months would cause severe droughts.19
Such volatility will jeopardize the livelihoods of millions of people and the economic capacity of the region: Agriculture constitutes some 40
percent of East Africa’s GDP and employs 80 percent of the population.20 In Darfur and elsewhere in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenya, water
shortages have already led to the desertification of large tracts of farmland and grassland. Fierce competition between farmers and herdsmen over
the remaining arable land, combined with simmering ethnic and religious tensions, helped ignite the first genocide of the 21st century.21 This
conflict has now spilled into Chad and the Central African Republic. Meanwhile, the entire Horn of Africa remains threatened by a failed Somalia
and other weak states. Beyond
Africa, the IPCC warns that “coastal areas, especially heavily
populated mega-delta regions in South, East and Southeast Asia, will be at greatest risk due
to increased flooding from the sea and, in some mega-deltas, flooding from the rivers.”22 In South Asia, this
will generate political tension as displaced people traverse the region’s many contested
borders and territories, such as those between Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and China. In
Bangladesh, for example, the combination of deteriorating socioeconomic conditions,
radical Islamic political groups, and dire environmental insecurity brought on by climate
change could prove a volatile mix, one with severe regional and potentially global
consequences.23
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SDI 2008 Opening Packet
Lieberman-Warner Aff
1AC
Advantage Two is Soft Power.
Current US policy toward climate change damages US image and encourages balancing:
cap and trade would boost soft power and spur cooperation on other issues
Busby 2007 (Joshua, Assistant Professor of Public Affairs at UT and a fellow with the RGK Center for Philanthropy and Community
Service as well as the Robert S. Strauss Center for International Security and Law, Who Cares about the Weather? Climate Change and U.S.
National Security, Paper prepared for presentation at the International Studies Association annual conference in Chicago, Illinois, March 1-3,
2007, www.utexas.edu/lbj/faculty/busby/papers/ClimateSecurity.pdf)
While response to climate-related disasters may enhance U.S. soft power, a broader
response to climate change writ large could also serve American interests. The reputation
of the United States in the world has not been this bad since the Vietnam War. One likely
reason U.S. popularity has suffered is because of the Bush Administration’s cavalier
treatment of its allies on issues of importance to them like climate change. The U.S.’s highhanded
withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol at the start of the Bush tenure in 2001 confirmed Europe’s fears that Bush was a unilateral cowboy in the
thrall of oil companies. While we cannot know for sure if a different stance on climate change would have had any appreciable impact on
America’s allies’ disposition towards the Iraq war, the
rejectionist pose of the Bush Administration on climate
has been part of the mix that soured European publics on American leadership and likely
made it costlier for the U.S. to get what it wants in the international arena.63 Multilateralism, self-
restraint, and giving one’s allies a voice in decision-making may be part of a sensible grand strategy for great powers. As John Ikenberry wrote in
After Victory, the U.S. construction of institutions in the post-World War II environment enshrined its influence and legitimated its rule in the
West among its allies, making the system easier to manage and more durable over the longer-term.64 It is this kind of pragmatism that led
It may make sense for the United States to
Ikenberry and Kupchan to call this approach “liberal realism.”65
cooperate on issues the Europeans care more about (climate change) so that they are more
willing and able to cooperate on issues the United States cares more about (terrorism).66 This
could under certain circumstances, as diagrammed in Figure 3, lead to reputational benefits for the United States, making it easier to achieve its
core security objectives. Figure 3: Action on Climate Change as a Remedy for Decline in U.S. Soft Power Poor U.S. image High Transactions
Leadership on Reputational Less Costly (Problem) Costs of Cooperation Climate Change Benefits Cooperation (I.V.) (Pos. Externalities) (D.V.)
Remedy There are better and worse ways of going about rehabilitating the U.S. image. The U.S. pursuit of a climate strategy for reputational
reasons could do little for the climate and little to improve its international standing or might be successful but resented. Even when the U.S.
proposes sound climate policies, these may be resisted. At the heart of the Kyoto negotiations were flexibility mechanisms like emissions trading.
At the time, these were fiercely resisted by the Europeans and yet now form the core part of Europe’s approach to greenhouse gas emissions
reductions. Similarly, the Bush Administration has championed the idea of reducing the economy’s carbon intensity. This is a sensible metric and
should have great relevance to China and India where absolute emissions are likely to rise but concerted efforts to introduce cleaner energy
technology should lead to lower emissions per unit of output. Convincing the Chinese and Indians to accept an intensity target would be difficult
but not impossible. However, because the Bush Administration’s own target mirrored the natural rate of efficiency gains, the idea may have been
sullied. If promoted by the United States, there are likely to be significant quarters of the environmental community unwilling to recognize
anything but a significant short-term emissions reduction target as a step forward. In the scheme of things, where net greenhouse gas emissions
need to fall on the order of 45-60% below 1990 levels by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change, they are right.67 The hardest part for the U.S.
however may be getting started and sending a reasonably strong signal to the private sector that governments are serious and committed to
limiting greenhouse gas emissions over the long haul. In any case, the U.S. needs to evaluate what price it is willing to pay for reputational
advantages. Some policy choices may prove to be expensive ways of purchasing good will. For example, the U.S. pledged at Kyoto to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions by 7% below 1990 levels by the 2008-2012 time period. Given that U.S. emissions grew more than 15% in the 1990s,
meeting that target would effectively require more than a 20% reduction in emissions.68 Different estimates of the costs of implementation of
Kyoto were calculated and ranged anywhere from 0.42% to 1.96% of GDP.69 While these may overestimate the costs of implementation, any
administration that is not wedded to climate protection goals for their own sake must evaluate different strategies for re-gaining others’ good will.
There may be other issues and ways to curry favor at lower cost, namely being nice (i.e. diplomatic) and acting like you are listening to your
allies. Such was the nature of the early visits to Europe by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and President Bush in 2005. At some point,
however, America’s allies will demand more substantive action on climate. If the U.S. government decides that
for reputational reasons it would like to embrace climate change, then for its actions to be credible, it might have to incur some reasonably
significant costs. These need not be purely material; they could entail political costs of standing up to core constituencies. To
get credit
from skeptical allies, the U.S. might have to do something unexpected or against type, such
as a carbon tax, a Patriot tax on gasoline as Thomas Friedman has suggested, or embrace of a cap-and-trade emissions
scheme.70As a consequence, the U.S. could find its allies were in a better position to
support the country on issues of more central concern. Such a move would also make it
more difficult for critics to use the symbolism of U.S. obstructionism on climate for their
own domestic grandstanding or to engage in quasi-balancing behavior.71
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SDI 2008 Opening Packet
Lieberman-Warner Aff
1AC
Soft power is critical to US leadership
Fried 06 (Eli, “The Soft Power of Multilateralism,” The Jerusalem Report, Oct 16, proquest)
If there is one big lesson to be learned from the war in Lebanon and Iraq, it is that both Israel
and the United States can gain as much, if not more, from international
cooperation as from the unilateral use of naked power. America's
experience in Iraq has demonstrated that no amount of military
power can make up for a lack of vital international support. Indeed, as a
result of its aggressive and unilateralist post- September 11 policies, Washington found itself
unable to play the role of regional broker early on in the Lebanon fighting. However, it went
on to pursue a sustainable cease-fire through a process of multilateral engagement, and,
with the passing of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, significantly enhanced its
persuasive capacity - or "soft power" - in the region. Its pursuit of an agreed- upon policy
enabled the United States to co-opt the international community without sacrificing
President Bush's paradigmatic division between the forces of good and evil. In other words,
it is not the U.S.'s moral partitioning that the world opposes, but
rather its perceived neo-colonialist policies and unilateralist tendencies.
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SDI 2008 Opening Packet
Lieberman-Warner Aff
1AC
Thus the plan:
The United States federal government should enact the Lieberman-Warner Climate
Security Act of 2008. We’ll clarify.
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SDI 2008 Opening Packet
Lieberman-Warner Aff
1AC
Contention Three is Solvency.
The Lieberman-Warner bill would cut carbon emissions enough to stop the impacts of
global warming and lead to increased use of alternative energy
Environmental Defense 12/5/2007 (Leading national nonprofit organization, press release, Environmental Defense Hails
Landmark Vote on Lieberman-Warner Climate Change Bill, http://www.edf.org/pressrelease.cfm?contentID=7404)
Waiting just two years to enact the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act or similar legislation would
double the rate at which the U.S. will need to cut emissions – from just under 2% a year to more than 4.3% a year – in order to
bring emissions down to where they need to be by 2020. The Climate Security Act (S. 2191) would reduce emissions by
almost 20 percent below current levels by 2020, largely through an emissions cap and trade system, putting the U.S. on a
path that is consistent with the roughly 80 percent reductions scientists say we need by mid-century to avoid a
dangerous climate tipping point. The strong short-term emissions goal is essential to deploying the technology
we already have to combat climate change, and sparking the innovation and investment we will need for the long
term. A groundbreaking analysis released last week by the management consulting firm McKinsey & Company found that the U.S. can cut
its projected emissions by as much as a third to one-half by 2030 at little cost and without major new
technology or lifestyle changes – provided we have the right policy incentives and start soon. “We can meet bold targets
with today’s technology and create the new jobs that will power our economy in the 21st century, we just need a smart national policy like cap
and trade. We also need a quick start. The longer we wait, the faster those opportunities will slip away,” Krupp said. The Climate Security
Act’s cap and trade system is a time-tested approach to reducing pollution that sets a mandatory limit on
emissions and frees companies to hunt for the lowest-cost reductions. Coupled with energy efficiency
provisions in the bill, the cap will result in reductions greater than 60 percent below current levels by 2050.
The bill also contains a “look back” provision requiring the National Academy of Sciences to periodically update Congress on the latest climate
change science.
The cap-and-trade system spurs use of current technology to cut carbon emissions and
allows development of even more efficient technology
Arroyo 2007 (Vicki, Director of Policy Analysis for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Climate Policy Should Focus on
Reducing Emissions, http://www.pewclimate.org/press_room/articlesopeds/arroyoenvironmentalforum.cfm, September/October)
Granted, tackling climate change requires a Herculean effort: emissions are on the rise, while the newest science reveals
impacts occurring faster than we envisioned. We are running out of time. To avoid the most serious
consequences of warming — loss of species, irreversible breakdown of ice sheets, and the human toll from
more intense heat waves and hurricanes — scientists say we need to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gases
such as carbon dioxide at less than a doubling of preindustrial levels (in the range of 450–550 ppm of CO2). If we’re
very lucky, that might hold us to a 3.6ºF (2ºC) global average temperature rise. It’s tempting to dismiss projected impacts as hyperbole or to
believe that we can engineer a “fix,” the way the Apollo 13 crew saved themselves by using duct tape to fashion a make-shift filter in their
struggle against rising CO2 levels on board their malfunctioning space capsule. I applaud those working on grand fixes and wish them every
success. But I place more stock in solutions that exist now. A Princeton University study shows that choosing just seven
current technologies from a number of options, including renewables, energy efficiency, and nuclear power, can
curb emissions growth sufficiently now, while buying time for technological breakthroughs. Each of these so-
called “wedges” can cut emissions by 1 gigaton per year within 50 years. But these technologies won’t be
deployed on the necessary scale without the right policies. One key policy is emissions trading, which has
worked for traditional air pollutants such as sulfur dioxide and is even better suited to curbing greenhouse
gases. The European Union has already developed the world’s largest carbon market. Some U.S. states are following suit, and a number of cap-
and-trade proposals are pending in Congress. By combining cap-and-trade with efficiency standards for cars and
appliances, advanced technology research, and development of geological storage, we can reach our emissions
reductions goals. So the essential first step is simple: stimulate existing technologies through demonstrated,
cost-effective policies. This takes political will, and there is no time to lose. Greenhouse gases differ from traditional air pollutants, which
can be eliminated with more than 99 percent efficiency at the stack. Greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere — and our oceans — for
hundreds of years. Even if geoengineering manages to cool a warming planet, it won’t solve other problems, such as ocean acidification from
conversion of CO2 to carbonic acid. And the risks of such “fixes” as seeding the oceans with iron and adding cooling particles to the atmosphere
are too big to ignore.
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SDI 2008 Opening Packet
Lieberman-Warner Aff
1AC
EPA analyses prove Lieberman-Warner cuts emissions enough to solve the impacts of
global warming
Green Car Congress 3/17/08 (EPA Analysis Finds Climate Security Act Could Cut GHG Emissions 25% Below 1990 Levels By
2050 at a Cost of 0.06 to 0.16 Percentage Points of GDP per Year; Transportation Contributes Little, referring to the EPA document that can be
found at http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/downloads/s2191_EPA_Analysis.pdf, http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/03/epa-analysis-
fi.html)
The Climate Security Act’s cut in cumulative US greenhouse-gas emissions is deeper than one found earlier
by EPA to be consistent with keeping global CO2 concentrations below 500 parts per million in 2100. The finding
assumes that other developed countries reduce their emissions by less than the US, and that the developing countries do not start making similar
reductions until 2025. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, keeping the global
concentration below 500 ppm greatly decreases the risk of severe global warming impacts in the US and elsewhere.
Federal action is key to effectiveness – decreases economic burden and creates a greater
incentive for innovation.
Repetto 2007 (Robert, Professor in the Practice of Economics and Sustainable Development at the Yale School of Forestry and
Environmental Studies, National Climate Policy: Choosing the Right Architecture, June 2007, Accessed May 12, 2008,
http://www.climateactionproject.com/docs/Repetto.pdf)
A national system should supersede other domestic cap-and-trade systems established on the state or regional
level, in order to avoid duplication and conflicting requirements, targets and timetables. It will not be appropriate to
have a national upstream cap-and-trade system operating in tandem with a regional cap-and-trade system covering just power plants and large
industrial establishments. A national system will confront national companies with fewer compliance burdens and
will obviate problems of inter-regional leakage that geographically limited systems would have to face. A
national upstream cap-and-trade system will also obviate the need for sector-specific regulations, such as
CAFE standards, because higher fuel prices will provide more comprehensive and flexible incentives for
drivers and auto makers to reduce automotive emissions. The system will also provide strong incentives for
energy efficiency improvements, though complementary policies to reduce market frictions, such a government procurement policies
and minimum efficiency standards, might still have a role.
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SDI 2008 Opening Packet
Lieberman-Warner Aff
1AC
Action on climate change is inevitable- the plan avoids a worse “crash system” in the future
Podesta, Stern, and Batten 2007 (John, Todd, and Kit, President, Managing Director for Energy and Environmental Policy, and
Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress, Capturing the Energy Opportunity, November 2007, Accessed May 15, 2008,
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/11/pdf/energy_chapter.pdf)
The challenge before us, then, is clear, and nothing is gained by delay. If
we ignore the risks of climate change and oil
dependence, or fail to mobilize the political will needed to address them, then we will
ultimately be forced into a much more costly and much less effective crash program down
the road. A short-sighted, business-as-usual approach to climate change will make it more
difficult to cope with increased disaster-related damage in the future and force us to
abandon existing infrastructure and equipment and any new physical capital we
improvidently deploy without regard to global warming. Moreover, we would incur a very large opportunity
cost, having lost out on the chance to become the economic leader in developing alternative and more efficient uses of energy. Instead, we should
seize the moment of challenge and opportunity now to start building the low-carbon economy.
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SDI 2008 Opening Packet
Lieberman-Warner Aff
10
SDI 2008 Opening Packet
Lieberman-Warner Aff
11
SDI 2008 Opening Packet
Lieberman-Warner Aff
12
SDI 2008 Opening Packet
Lieberman-Warner Aff
13
SDI 2008 Opening Packet
Lieberman-Warner Aff
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SDI 2008 Opening Packet
Lieberman-Warner Aff
Their arguments are based on economic models that don’t assume technological innovation
and resultant decreases in energy costs
National Wildlife Federation 1/20/08 (Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act: Energizing America’s Economy,
SustainableDelco, http://sustainabledelco.org/2008/01/20/lieberman-warner-climate-security-act-energizing-america%E2%80%99s-economy/)
Economic Modeling of the Legislation: Because the Lieberman-Warner bill designed to drive technology innovation,
economic models are incapable of guessing at what that innovation may bring, and the economic opportunity
it entails. However, many economists analyze bills based on the technology we have now to determine what
the likely market-based price will be for emission allowances, and how that will affect energy prices and GDP.
According to a detailed technology analysis by McKinsey & Company on behalf of Shell, Honeywell, DTE Energy and other sponsors, U.S.
emissions can be reduced by 20-30% below current levels by the year 2030 (reductions comparable to those in the
Lieberman-Warner bill) through measures that are cost effective. The cost savings from many of these measures
(such as improving efficiency in buildings) would roughly offset the added cost of the more expensive options
(such as reducing pollution at coal-fired power plants). Analysis of an earlier version of the Lieberman-Warner
bill by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions and RTI International
suggests the following: (1) America’s economy will grow strongly under the Lieberman-Warner bill. Total U.S.
GDP will roughly triple in size between 2010 and 2050 with or without enactment of the bill. However, there may be
some slight loss in GDP through 2050 – roughly equivalent to delaying economic growth by about 6 months over a 40 year timeframe. This
analysis does not attempt to assess, however, the positive boost to the U.S. economy that would accompany a renaissance in manufacturing clean
energy technologies to sell around the world. (2) The Lieberman-Warner bill returns significant revenues to consumers. The bill is the first to
provide detailed provisions to aid a just transition to a clean energy future for low- and middle-income families. Based on the Nicholas Institute’s
forecast for emission allowance prices, NWF calculates that the consumer-oriented provisions in the bill’s allocation formula will return $425
billion to low- and middle-income consumers thru the year 2030. (3) Energy prices may increase for businesses and residential consumers,
although energy bills could go up or down. Compared to a “business as usual” pathway, the Nicholas Institute estimates that, by the year 2015:
the price of gasoline may increase by 7%; the price of natural gas may increase by about 17%; and the price of electricity may increase by about
20%. However, increasing energy prices does not automatically translate into higher energy bills, as consumers
will have greater access to energy saving technologies that reduce the amount of gasoline, natural gas and
electricity purchased. A recent analysis by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency of a similar climate bill (S.
280) determined that overall cost of generating electricity across the United States would decrease by 2025, as
the savings from energy conservation more than offset the costs of pollution controls to industry. (4) The
United States energy mix will diversify and rely less on fossil fuels. The legislation will drive energy conservation and
renewable energy sources, with the overall use of fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) declining 12% by 2015 relative to business-as-usual. United
States dependency on oil will be reduced by 15% compared to business-as-usual by 2050. (5) The Cost of emitting greenhouse gas emissions will
increase over time as emissions limits tighten. Emission allowance prices are estimated to start at about $20 per ton (carbon dioxide equivalent) in
2015 and increase as emission caps tighten.
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SDI 2008 Opening Packet
Lieberman-Warner Aff
Turn: Innovation
A. Cap spurs renewable innovation – which is key to US competitiveness.
Byron Swift and Jan Mazurek 2008 (Director of the Center for Energy, Economy and Innovation at the Environmental
Law Institute and the Director of the Center for Innovation and the Environment at the Progressive Policy Institute,
Progressive Policy Institute Policy Report, October 2001, Accessed May 16, 2008,
http://www.ndol.org/documents/clean_energy_part2.pdf)
The adoption by other countries of greenhouse gas caps virtually guarantees that the country (or company)
first to market with carbon-abatement technologies will reap unprecedented dividends. Although we can’t foresee
exactly what carbon mitigation technologies will form the ultimate response to global warming, we should be creating incentives to
develop them now. We know from experience that new technology, an entrepreneurial spirit, and sound public
policies can simultaneously produce environmental improvements, growth, and affordable energy. U.S.
companies should have incentives to develop carbon mitigation technologies that will have world markets. It is
also up to countries like the United States that have the capital and expertise to develop these technologies in order for lesser-developed countries
to be able to commit to reductions by applying those technologies.
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LONDON, UK, October 30, 2006 (ENS) - The most comprehensive review ever carried out on the
economics of climate change warns that global warming could inflict worldwide disruption
as great as that caused by the two World Wars and the Great Depression. Published today and
launched at the offices of the Royal Society in London, the Stern Review estimates that US$9 trillion
dollars would be the global economic cost of doing nothing. The review, sent to Prime Minister Tony
Blair and Chancellor Gordon Brown, was commissioned by the chancellor in July last year. It was carried out by Sir
Nicholas Stern, head of the Government Economic Service and a former World Bank chief economist. Sir Nicholas
said today, "The conclusion of the review is essentially optimistic. There is still time to avoid the worst
impacts of climate change, if we act now and act internationally. Governments, businesses and individuals
all need to work together to respond to the challenge. Strong, deliberate policy choices by governments are essential
to motivate change."
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Lieberman-Warner Aff
Even if actual legislation isn’t inevitable, businesses think it is- plan provides economic
certainty
Walsh 2008 (Bryan, Environmental staff writer, Time, April 28, 2008, Accessed May 16, 2008,
http://www.time.com/time/specials/2007/article/0,28804,1730759_1731383_1731363-1,00.html)
It's true that there will be costs associated with any carbon-pricing plan; ending climate change
won't be free. "You want a clean environment, you have to pay for it," says Peter Fusaro, founder
of the green investment group Global Change Associates. But just how high will the tab be? An
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) study found that gdp would grow just 1% less from
2010 to 2030 under Lieberman-Warner than without it—and that doesn't take into account the
potential economic benefits. In an April study, the International Monetary Fund concluded that
smart carbon-cutting policies could contain climate change without seriously harming the
global economy. And while the U.S. business community will fight hard over the details of
any cap-and-trade plan, a growing number of companies are now begging for the certainty
that will come from what many see as inevitable legislation. "I believe it will be a challenge,
but it's doable," says Peter Darbee, CEO of the West Coast utility PG&E.
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Lieberman-Warner Aff
A/T “Spending”
Lieberman-Warner will boost government income by $100 billion in the first year
Thompson 6/21/08 (Clive, contributing writer for the New York Times Magazine, International Herald Tribune, “The mission of
Mister Clean,” lexis-nexis)
But the Lieberman-Warner bill, like virtually every other cap-and-trade bill in the works, gives away
only 75 percent of the allowances; the government auctions off the rest. Year by year, the
percentage of allowances that will be auctioned off steadily rises, until nearly all of them are. This is a huge
new source of money for the government: Carbon allowances are projected to be worth
$100 billion in the first year alone, rising to nearly $500 billion by 2050.
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Lieberman-Warner Aff
( ) Only permit schemes create international linkages – this best capture global solvency.
Clausen & Greenwald ‘7 (Eileen Claussen is president of the Pew Center on Global Climate
Change. Judith Greenwald is director of innovative solutions at the Pew Center. Miami Herald -- July 12 --
http://www.pewclimate.org/press_room/opinion_editorials/oped_miamih07122007)
Both a carbon tax and a cap-and trade system would use economic incentives to drive emission reductions. Cap-and-
trade, however, has some important advantages. It's more flexible for one, allowing you to link your system to other
cap-and-trade systems around the world. In today's global economy, where companies operate in multiple countries
at once, this kind of system has obvious advantages. Cap-and-trade also allows the ''banking'' of emission
allowances - reducing emissions early and using the saved emission allowances for later.
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( ) Carbon Tax places economics over the environment without really being a better option
for the economy . Only permits ensure less emission.
Williams-Derry ‘7 (Clark Williams-Derry is research director of Sightline Institute, a research and
communications center based in Seattle that tracks long-term trends in
environmental and social wellbeing – Gristmill – December 6th --
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2007/12/5/102441/300)
Just so, a tax gives a better guarantee of price stability than cap-and-trade. There's no chance of a carbon "price shock" with a tax, nor of a
collapse in carbon prices (as happened in the early stages of the European emissions trading system). And businesses love predictability --
without it, it's hard to plan investments. A cap-and-trade system has to be designed very carefully in order to reduce the chance of wild price
swings -- something that a tax does by design. But what I don't like about this op-ed is that it seems to elevate the principle of
price stability over effective climate protection. For example, the authors stress the difficulty of setting the initial emissions limits
right in a cap-and-trade system -- particularly, that an emissions limit that's too high or too low may send inconsistent price signals at the outset of
the program. That's fair enough, I suppose. But how is that any more worrisome than a system that sends consistent price
signals, if it turns out later that those price signals were too low to be effective? It seems that the much greater risk,
over the long haul, is a carbon tax that's never quite high enough to get the emissions reductions we need. And that's
where cap-and-trade really shines -- if done properly, it works like a self-adjusting tax, with the level of the tax
always pitched just high enough to guarantee the next incremental emissions reduction. And if implemented through an
upstream system with frequent and full auctioning of emissions allowances, a cap shouldn't be all that different from a carbon tax. I'm willing to
be proven wrong here. But it seems every bit as difficult to get the tax level right -- and keep it right -- as it is to get the
initial emissions limit right. If we get the taxes too low, we'll need to continually generate the political will needed to
adjust the tax rate upwards. And by the time that happens. North Americans may have emitted literally billions of
tons of additional CO2.
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( ) Carbon Tax is not easier to administer, and the EU proves that tradable permits are a
better option.
Clausen & Greenwald ‘7 (Eileen Claussen is president of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change. Judith
Greenwald is director of innovative solutions at the Pew Center. Miami Herald -- July 12 --
http://www.pewclimate.org/press_room/opinion_editorials/oped_miamih07122007)
As Congress moves closer to enacting a ''cap-and-trade'' program aimed at limiting U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, a
number of commentators are touting a carbon tax as a preferable policy. Their key arguments in support of such a
tax: 1) it would be simpler; and 2) the European Union has tried the cap-and-trade approach, and it has failed.
Both arguments are wrong.
Under a cap-and-trade program, the government sets an overall emissions cap and issues tradable allowances that grant businesses the right to
emit a set amount. Those who can reduce their emissions more cheaply are able to sell extra allowances to others who would otherwise have to
pay more to comply. Because of this market-based approach, a cap-and-trade system helps assure that you can achieve your
overall cap at the lowest possible cost. Cap-and-trade is the basis of the U.S. effort to control acid rain pollution,
which has achieved greater reductions at lower costs than anyone anticipated.
Under a carbon tax, emitters are required to pay a tax for every ton of pollution they emit. Neither system is
inherently more complex than the other. Both require monitoring and enforcement -- to determine taxable emissions and to
guarantee payment in the case of a tax, or to ensure that allowances match overall emissions in the case of cap-and-trade. Both approaches also
must address the question of how to distribute costs and benefits. For cap-and-trade, that means figuring out how to distribute and/or auction
emission allowances; under a tax, it means figuring out who pays and what to do with the revenue.
Yes, under a cap-and-trade program, exemptions and special treatment are possible, and even likely. But the same
goes for a tax. Only someone who has never filled out a tax form or helped write a tax bill could expect a tax to be
simpler than cap-and-trade.
As for the cap-and-trade system in Europe, it is actually a major success. The system covers more than 10,000
sources and has spawned a robust emissions trading market with millions of transactions per month.
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