June 29 2012

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The ValuEngine Weekly is an Investor Education newsletter focused on the quantitative approach to investing and the tools available from ValuEngine.com. In today's fast-moving and globalized financial markets, it is easy to get overloaded with information. The winners will adopt an objective, scientific, independent and unemotional approach to investing. If you are not yet a member of ValuEngine's stock analysis service, sign up now for a two-week free trial at www.valuengine.com!

MARKET OVERVIEW

Index
DJIA NASDAQ RUSSELL 2000 S&P 500

started week
12639.8 2863.89 775.15 1334.9

Thursday Close
12602.3 2849.49 775.89 1329.04

4 day change
-37.5 -14.4 0.74 -5.86

4 day change %
-0.30% -0.50% 0.10% -0.44%

ytd
3.15% 9.38% 4.72% 5.68%

Summary of VE Stock Universe

Stocks Undervalued Stocks Overvalued Stocks Undervalued by 20% Stocks Overvalued by 20% 72.56% 27.44% 37.46% 10.73%

SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector
Aerospace Auto-Tires-Trucks Basic Materials Business Services Computer and Technology Construction Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Finance Industrial Products Medical Multi-Sector Conglomerates Oils-Energy Retail-Wholesale Transportation Utilities

Change
-0.74% -0.67% -0.89% -0.70% -0.79% 0.25% -0.25% 0.01% -0.06% -0.40% 0.37% -0.57% -0.12% -0.05% -0.09% -0.09%

MTD
-0.98% -2.17% 0.26% 0.45% 0.23% 3.09% -1.04% 1.11% 1.86% -1.70% 5.69% -0.32% -1.96% -0.83% -0.32% 3.83%

YTD
-2.69% -1.44% -6.59% 3.60% 4.36% 16.37% 6.40% 7.45% 12.12% -2.51% 12.24% 3.35% -13.04% 6.10% 4.14% -1.74%

Valuation
2.36% undervalued 19.59% undervalued 18.90% undervalued 4.88% undervalued 1.61% overvalued 9.13% undervalued 4.65% undervalued 7.99% overvalued 4.61% overvalued 1.55% undervalued 6.41% overvalued 2.82% undervalued 17.44% undervalued 0.61% overvalued 6.66% undervalued 7.90% overvalued

Last 12-M Return

-15.03% -21.56% -34.08% -5.36% -13.45% -7.54% -6.71% -5.92% -0.63% -15.97% -12.02% -10.95% -28.08% 0.47% -17.73% -6.76%

P/E Ratio
36.93 17.97 21.43 33.11 37.11 42.91 29.86 18.55 22.07 19 29.5 13.85 24.78 24.82 24.07 18.89

Sector TalkHealth Care

Below, we present the latest data on leading Health Care Stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.

Top-Five Health Care Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
RPTP JAZZ VRX THLD PDLI

Name
RAPTOR PHARMACT JAZZ PHARMACEUT VALEANT PHARMA THRESHOLD PHARM PDL BIOPHARMA

Mkt Price
5.56 43.97 43.73 7.28 6.62

Valuation(%)
N/A 1.75 -23.39 0.74 -33.51

Last 12-M Retn(%)

-8.1 36.64 -15.61 343.9 23.51

Top-Five Health Care Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
RPTP JAZZ VRX WCRX WCG

Name
RAPTOR PHARMACT JAZZ PHARMACEUT VALEANT PHARMA WARNER CHIL PLC WELLCARE HEALTH

Mkt Price
5.56 43.97 43.73 18.37 53.98

Valuation(%)
N/A 1.75 -23.39 -18.79 -15.26

Last 12-M Retn(%)

-8.1 36.64 -15.61 -23.11 4.69

Top-Five Health Care Sector Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker
PDLI POZN TEVA AZN WLP

Name
PDL BIOPHARMA POZEN INC TEVA PHARM ADR ASTRAZENECA PLC WELLPOINT INC

Mkt Price
6.62 6.32 39.14 44.39 65.9

Valuation(%)
-33.51 -28.42 -26.43 -12.66 -25.23

Last 12-M Retn(%)

23.51 43.64 -15.77 -3.67 -15.28

Top-Five Health Care Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker
PCYC ELGX AMRN OSUR NEPT

Name
PHARMACYCLICS ENDOLOGIX INC AMARIN CORP PLC ORASURE TECH NEPTUNE TEC&BIO

Mkt Price
52.48 14.87 14.17 10.32 4.66

Valuation(%)
300 300 300 300 300

Last 12-M Retn(%)

N/A 60.58 -4.19 22.42 29.81

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Free Report Download for Subscribers

As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers, we are now offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Reports.
This week's free download is our report on JPMorgan Chase (JPM). J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is a leading global financial services firm. The firm is a leader in investment banking, asset management, private banking, private equity, custody and transaction services and retail and middle market financial services. A component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, JPMorgan Chase is headquartered in New York and serves more than 30 million consumer customers and the world's most prominent corporate, institutional and government clients. JPMorgan Chase has been in the news once again as losses from their "hedge" gone wrong are now predicted to approach $9 billion if the trade is unwound under the worst-case scenario. Regulators are now reviewing the banks risk models. JPMorgan report Q2 results on July 13th. Some analysts note that JPMorgan has essentially been operating as a hedge fund yet it has the benefit of Federally-insured deposits. Currently, we have the stock rated a 3-Engine HOLD. Download the free detailed valuation report for a more in-depth view of the Wall Street giant.

Weekly Subscribers can download a FREE Detailed Valuation Report on JPMorgan Chase HERE If you have not subscribed and want to be able to receive a FREE $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Report, you can subscribe to our Free Weekly Newsletter HERE.

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What's HotUndervaluation Stabilizes

The ValuEngine Valuation Model tracks more than 8000 US equities, ADRs, and foreign stock which trade on US exchanges. The model calculates a level of mispricing or valuation percentage for each equity based on what the stock should be worth if the market were totally rational and efficient--an academic exercise to be sure, but one which allows for useful comparisons between equities, sectors, and industries. Subscribers Get FULL ACCESS to our Market and Sector Overviews In the chart below, you can see that our Valuation Model finds that the market is a range of undervaluation, just above what we would consider "normal" range. This has been the case for much of May and June. Price levels are higher than the were at the beginning of the year, but the undervaluation is roughly equivalent.

Whenever we see levels in overvaluation levels in excess of @ 60% for the overall universe, we issue a valuation watch. But right now things seem pretty "normal," and we do not see much of a trend right now. Daily market fluctuations lead to slight variations in the undervaluation calculation. Of course, in the past undervaluation has persisted for a long time, and we do not believe that current levels are indicative of an extreme buy signal. For reference, here is a longer-term chart which tracks the metrics back to March, 2010. Note that undervaluation levels peaked in excess of 90% last Summer. We still wait for evidence that "Sell in May and Walk Away" will hold sway this year or if the US Presidential elections--as they usually do--will disprove that maxim. Right now it appears that the Summer swoon is the reality.

We will continue to watch and track our valuation metrics so that we may add to our data set.

Suttmeier Says
--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier
If you have any comments or questions, send them to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com Treasury Yields 10-Year--(1.587) Daily, semiannual and monthly value levels are 1,663, 1.903 and 1.909 with weekly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 1.440, 1.407 and 1.385. Commodities and Forex Comex Gold--($1555.6) Daily, weekly and annual value levels are $1529.9, $1530.9 and $1388.4 with my annual pivot at $1575.8, and semiannual and monthly risky levels at $1635.8, $1659.4 and $1695.4. My quarterly risky level is $1871.9. The 50-day / 200day SMAs: $1603.7 / $1666.8. Nymex Crude--($78.42) Daily and weekly value levels are $76.95 and $70.52 with the October 4th low at $74.95, a semiannual pivot at $79.83, and quarterly, annual and semiannual risky levels at $101.55, $103.58 and $104.84. Fridays close is below the 200week SMA at $80.51. The Euro--(1.2440) My weekly value level is 1.2098 with a daily pivot at 1.2501, and monthly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 1.2815, 1.2980 and 1.3366. The June 2010 low is 1.1880.

Major Indices Daily Dow: (12,602) Annual and value levels are 12,312 and 11,973 with a daily pivot at 12,535, and quarterly, annual and monthly risky levels at 12,794, 14,032 and 14,201. S&P 500 (1329.0) Daily and weekly value levels are 1321.4 and 1252.7 with quarterly, annual, monthly and annual risky levels at 1337.7, 1363.2, 1504.8 and 1562.9. NASDAQ (2849) Annual and weekly value levels are 2698 and 2657 with a daily pivot at 2855, and quarterly, annual and monthly risky levels at 2911, 3232 and 3248. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2537) Weekly and annual value levels are 2374 and 2300 with a daily pivot at 2543, and annual and quarterly risky levels at 2603 and 2608, and monthly risky level at 2873. Dow Transports (5065) Daily and weekly value levels are 4993 and 4856 with my quarterly risky level at 5420, and the all time high set at 5627.85 on July 11, 2011. Russell 2000 (775.89) My weekly value level is 713.15 with a daily pivot at 775.34, and quarterly and annual risky levels at 829.34 and 836.15, and the all time high set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011. The SOX (369.38) My weekly value level is 337.07 with a daily pivot at 367.85, and quarterly and monthly risky levels at 416.01 and 449.21, and the 2011 high at 474.33 set on February 18, 2011.

ValuEngine.com Tools and Services

We provide a variety of means for accessing ValuEngine market analysis and other content. You can find us on some of the leading financial media websites as well as the more popular social media services. While our own website ValuEngine.com provides access to lots of analysis--and you can always sign up to receive email daily and weekly bulletins HERE, some users prefer to download PDF reports of content while others prefer to garner info while browsing the web. Our Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier is a prolific market observer and you can find his content in a variety of places. His weekly column on Forbes provides insights into his "Buy and Trade" strategy while his daily market analysis can be followed and accessed at Scribd, Twitter, and Minyanville. Senior Editor Steve Hach re-posts PDFs and web-accessible copies of Daily and Weekly ValuEngine bulletins at Seeking Alpha and Scribd. In most cases, you can receive notification of VE content posting by Suttmeier and Hach by following the ValuEngine feed on twitter @ValuEngine. Links for this content are provided below, you may also find these links on our website HERE Intelligent Investing with Richard Suttmeier Articles by Richard Suttmeier | Articles by Steve Hach Newsletters, Articles and Other Research Pieces Articles by Richard Suttmeier | Articles by Steve Hach Get short, timely messages from ValuEngine Inc Daily Bulletin PDFs, Weekly Newsletter PDFs, and PDF Research Reports