WAS PAKISTAN WRONG TO REVIEW U.S. TIES?

Re-Engaging Washington: A Second Opinion

Pakistan did not confront forty-nine nations or risk international isolation in closing NATO supply routes. Islamabad faced only one: Washington. It needs Pakistani strategic cover for withdrawal. And Pakistans post-2014 role cannot be displaced. Critics who argue against Pakistans decision to correct the ties with United States would benefit from reviewing their position.
MEHMOOD MAAJID
The author is an alumnus of National Defense University, Islamabad, Pakistan. This Policy Brief was developed at Project Pakistan 21 based on an article by the author published by The Frontier Post of Peshawar, Pakistan. For queries, please contact media@projectpakistan21.org

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY On Pakistan withdrawing the facility granted to United States to transport US military and NATO war supplies through Pakistan 1. Pakistan is overestimating Americas ability to impose an end-game solution in Afghanistan or to sideline Pakistan. 2. It is incorrect to assume that by blocking NATO supplies Pakistan started a confrontation with forty-nine nations or risked diplomatic isolation. If this theory were true, Washington would not be the only capital pursuing desperate negotiations with Pakistan and eventually offer a symbolic statement of regret. 3. In the standoff over blocking NATO supply routes, Pakistan faced only the United States. 4. Europe was almost indifferent. Thirty-three NATO member states have less than 1,000 soldiers in Afghanistan and half of those states maintain less than 100 soldiers in the occupied country. Pakistan confronting 49 nations is a myth. 5. The war in Afghanistan is Americas war, not Europes. The question of Pakistan confronting 49 nations if it reviews US ties is exaggerated 6. Pakistan is not isolated. Islamabad is capable of mustering strong regional alliances independent of the United States, a fact known to Washington.

On United States ability to impose an end-game in Afghanistan and offer or deny Pakistan a role 7. The US failed to create conditions for end-game despite three troop surges and increased CIA drone attacks. 8. The American shift to a regional approach to end the Afghan war is evidence on the limits of US power. 9. Renewed references by US officials to a Pakistani role are evidence on the limits on American ability to impose a solution in Afghanistan without Pakistani assistance.

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10. American withdrawal from Afghanistan cannot be executed without Pakistani strategic cover. 11. The necessity of relationship favors Pakistan where the US needs Islamabad more than ever to get out and refocus on new threats in Asia-Pacific. 12. The US lacks a credible alternative to circumvent Pakistan if it wants to talk to Afghan resistance. 13. Pakistan will remain relevant in any post-2014 makeup; US officials recognize displacing Pakistans role is not possible. 14. It is true the US can muster tremendous pressures on Pakistan, but we are living in a post American world where strategic changes are no longer solely guided by the US.

On worst-case scenario and what should be Pakistans long term objective 15. Pakistan possesses the capability to establish consequences for United States by direct application of its strategic power beyond South Asia, in a worst-case scenario which is improbable to occur. 16. What Pakistan lacks and needs to develop ASAP is a credible, practical and sustainable policy framework for dealing with the US and shaping the future of Afghanistan. 17. The test of Pakistani diplomacy will be ensuring peace, economic development, sustainable economic growth, global status and security through realizing the regional integration of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia void of any outside influence. 18. Pakistan should continue and upgrade its current posture of keeping US under pressure while backing it up by this vision to remain relevant and play an influential role in global politics.

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RE-ENGAGING WASHINGTON: A SECOND OPINION

Was Pakistan Wrong To Review US Ties?

MEHMOOD MAJID | Thursday | 5 July 2012 | Project For Pakistan In 21st Century

The recent impasse in Pakistan-US relations raised important questions regarding the future of bilateral relationship between the two countries. The critics of Pakistans policy direction adopted by Islamabad to 'redefine and reconfigure' the relationship, despite its necessity, is flawed and has delivered less in terms of tangible deliverables; while demands of apology are 'unrealistic' and 'unnecessary' irritant in moving the relationship forward and resolving differences over key issues. So more engagement, according to this view, rather than confrontation with United States is beneficial for Pakistan. This construct, however, needs a critical reevaluation as it seems to lack the understanding and appreciation of changing global and regional strategic landscape. It is high time, therefore, to critically review the arguments presented for reengagement with US based on objective assessment of regional realities.

One: Does Pakistan Need United States For A Favorable Outcome In Afghanistan?
The first argument is of relevance, that Pakistan needs United States for favorable political outcome in Afghan end game. The fundamental thinking behind this argument is the overestimation of US capability to impose unilateral solution in Afghanistan without the assistance of regional states. The reality, however, is stark on the battlefield. The United States has failed to create conditions on the ground in Afghanistan that could help it negotiate with armed opposition from a position of strength. This failure occurs despite three troop surges and increased CIA drone attacks. The American policy shift in favor of a regional approach for a grand political reconciliation is in itself evidence on the limits of US power in the region.

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In recognition of these limitations, key American officials and policy makers have reiterated a number of times the importance of Pakistan in shaping the future of Afghanistan. Moreover, the much hyped Bonn II international conference on Afghanistan was of little political significance 1 when Pakistan boycotted the forum as a protest against the deliberate2 Salala check post attack. More importantly, the withdrawal (retreat, actually) of US-led forces from Afghanistan scheduled in 2014 has to be completed under the strategic cover provided by Pakistan through its crucial supply routes commonly known as Southern Distribution Network (SDN). If the Northern Distribution Network (NDN) has been as effective as claimed then why United States is desperately negotiated the opening of SDN? In fact, in practical terms, the necessity of relationship in this context is the other way round, i.e. America needs Pakistan more than ever to extricate itself from Afghan quagmire and resultantly focus on other emerging threats in Asia-Pacific.

Two: Pakistani Influence In Afghanistan, And Not US Presence, Is The Ultimate Trump Card
The second argument is Pakistan's sometimes exaggerated influence over powerful factions of Afghan resistance. Fact remains that Pakistan's influence (not control) within the major factions of Afghan resistance, at whatever level, is the ultimate trump card that can define the nature of conflict and the future of Afghanistan. It was through Pakistan that United States managed to contact 3 the Haqqani network last year. Progress in Qatar initiative aimed at increasing the pace of reconciliation process was also not possible without tacit Pakistani support. United States lacks a credible alternative to circumvent Pakistan's route and establish independent contacts to facilitate peace process in Afghanistan. Afghanistan's ambassador to United States, Eklil Hakimi, told the press in Bonn conference in December that, Right now we don't know their address. We don't have a door to knock on"4.

Oberti, Charlotte, Afghan future at stake as Pakistan boycotts Bonn talks, Link http://j.mp/Pf1zHJ

2 3

Porter, Gareth, US probe of border attack hardened Pakistani suspicions, Link http://j.mp/LRpmG9 Schmit, Eric, United States met secretly with Pakistan and Haqqani network, NYT, Link http://j.mp/LPSS3q 4 Associated Press quoting Eklil Hakimi in Bonn on Dec. 4, 2011

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In sum, Pakistan will remain relevant in any makeup of post 2014 Afghan political outlook and US lacks the capacity to displace Pakistan's role in this regard, a fact duly recognized by officials in Washington.

Three: If Pakistan Blocks NATO, It Faces Trouble With 49 Nations And Threat Of International Isolation
Third argument goes on to state that by delaying the opening of NATO supply lines, Pakistan risked the ire of 48 'contributing nations' in Afghanistan and dangers of international isolation. The assertion needs close introspection. Politically, if Pakistan is 'annoying' 48 contributing nations then why was it only United States that actively pursued the opening of supply lines and even went as far as issuing a symbolic 'statement of apology'? Moreover, the contribution is itself questionable. Thirty-three nations have less than 1000 troops in the mission while 16 amongst them have less than 100 soldiers present. The war in Afghanistan is unpopular in Europe in an environment of ongoing financial turmoil and shrinking defense budgets. Newly elected French President during his visit to Afghanistan announced troops' withdrawal at the end of 2012, ahead of NATO's timetable of 20145. In sum, war in Afghanistan is an American war and not European. With regards to isolation, the road to peace in Afghanistan passes through Pakistan so how come Pakistan be made irrelevant given its ability to muster strong regional alliances independent of US.

Four: Pakistan Is Weak And Has Limited Options In Dealing With US

Last argument is that Pakistan is a weak state and has its limits in dealing with United States. It is true that United States is an international power capable of mustering economic and strategic pressures against competitors. But equally true is that we are living in a post American world where regional and global strategic landscape is undergoing profound transition no longer solely guided by United States but also by other emerging players.

Cooper, Helene, and Cushman Jr., John H., Hollande tells Obama troop pullout will proceed, Link http://j.mp/NzI1q1

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Five: Pakistans Reach Beyond Its Immediate Neighborhood

In addition to the above mentioned arguments, Pakistan possesses the capability to establish consequences for United States by direct application of its strategic power beyond South Asia. This is in case of worst case scenario which is remote itself i.e. the threat of US military strikes inside Pakistan aimed at 'moderating' its behavior.

Given the above mentioned assessment of reality, the critics are right on one account though, i.e. Pakistan is lacking a credible, practical and sustainable policy framework for dealing with US and shaping the future of Afghanistan. The alternate framework should be looking beyond nation statehood towards a transnational management of regional affairs encompassing common culture and creed. The test of Pakistani diplomacy will be ensuring peace, economic development, sustainable economic growth, global status and security through realizing the regional integration of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia void of any outside influence. Pakistan should continue and upgrade its current posture of keeping US under pressure while backing it up by this vision to remain relevant and play an influential role in global politics.

[CONCLUDED]

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MISSION
To help and guide the citizens of Pakistan, the Federal Government and the Pakistan Armed Forces in sustaining and improving the core structure of the Pakistani State. Our project is organized around a basic idea that a proud history creates a nation of achievers. And that the Pakistani nation must be assertive in promoting its legitimate interests. Pakistan has made tremendous strides in its first seven decades. It needs to draw lessons of unity from its long history as a descendant of major empires in our region. This helps Pakistanis unite and understand their place in the region and in the books of history. For a better future, the Pakistani State must create citizens who are proud of their past. This confidence can then be used by the Pakistani State to create globalist citizens, proud Pakistani nationalists driven to excel in todays world, in cooperation with all peaceful nations. Pakistan requires a solid and stable political system suited to its domestic environment, and strong Armed Forces geared toward protecting the Pakistani space. Our vision is to help build a rapid and lethal military force in light of our modern and historical experiences in our larger surrounding pace. Pakistan is capable of packaging and exporting its robust culture, arts and music. Pakistan must move fast to harness its astounding potential in trade and as a market that can produce immense wealth and lead to attractive living standards for its citizens and worldwide capital investors. Pakistan has wasted two decades: the last of the twentieth century and the first decade of the twenty-first. We must ensure we utilize the remaining nine decades of this century to execute our plan for Pakistans rise.
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ABOUT PROJECT PAKISTAN 21 Project for Pakistan In 21st Century is a nonpartisan, nonprofit pool of Pakistani talent in diplomacy, media, military, education, economy and science. Its short name is Project Pakistan 21. It seeks to position Pakistan and its people for success in 21st century. It recognizes that a debilitated and rusty system of politics and governance in Pakistan cannot create a strong nation and needs to be changed top to bottom. To this end, Project Pakistan 21 intends to integrate Pakistans twin assets of human resource and strong institutions to play their role in Pakistans rebirth as a stable, proud, strong, independent and prosperous nation. OUR HISTORY Pakistan is a nation and a people extracted from the great cultures and blood lines going back to Turks, Persians, Arabs and Aryans. This history spans ten centuries and beyond of progressive contribution to arts, culture, science, trade and politics. Todays Pakistanis are cosmopolitan, resourceful and active contributors to the global march of civilization just as their ancestors were at their zenith. The lowest point in Pakistans history was the ninety years between the downfall of the Mughal Empire in 1857 and the rise of independent Pakistan in 1947. The trials of that period galvanized the Pakistani nation and spurred an impressive political and legal movement, spearheaded by patriotic, educated and resourceful leaders who triumphed with the rise of independent Pakistan on August 14, 1947. OUR FUTURE Pakistans future lies in creating and grooming ruling political elites committed in absolute terms to this idea of Pakistan and the prosperity and wellbeing of its citizens; a strong federal government sitting atop a power structure consisting of a dozen or more administrative provinces, or states, with directly elected governors and local parliaments. A political system that encourages the rise of national-level parties and discourages and bans politics based on ethnicity, language, sect or any divisive theory. We believe that the focus of governance in the first three decades of the twenty-first century in Pakistan should be on economy, trade, energy, infrastructure and education. Politics must not have a priority in this period. An independent media and judiciary can and should continue informing and watching the performance of the state and public servants even within a controlled, Economy First political system. This, in essence, creates the Pakistani model for development. Bold democratic reforms are required for a strong Pakistani state. Pakistans early plunge into Westminster-style political system was premature and did not take into account the young nations need for focus, discipline and organization immediately after Independence. National life in Pakistan needs to be depoliticized to the extent of liberating the talents of Pakistani people in arts, religion, culture, music, business, academia and sports. Politics in this period must not become a national sport. The State must help create an environment where every Pakistani citizen can contribute to increasing GDP and generating wealth.

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Pakistans vibrant media should be strengthened to take Pakistans voice to the world through films, books, music, documentaries and news media. Pakistan needs to harness its geostrategic strengths to their fullest potential across multiple platforms, from tourism to business to the military. Education must be tailored and imposed to create productive and globalist Pakistani citizens. The end game is to have men and women who are anchored in pride in Pakistans history and its Islamic heritage, which unites Pakistanis from all religious backgrounds and persuasions and grants equal opportunity to Pakistani Christians, Sikhs, Parsis, Hindus and others. Pakistans citizens and state are open to the world in the best traditions of Islamic golden period. In this context, Project Pakistan 21 will soon be floating a national document titled, A Smart Coup: Pakistan Strategic Readjustment Program For 21st Century. The document proposes a roadmap for achieving the above objectives. Our goal is that by 2030, Pakistan must be recognized as a politically stable and dynamic nation with a firm grip on its domestic politics and international relations. This is the vision that we at Project For Pakistan In 21st Century aims to achieve. Our headquarters to be launched soon at 1, Jinnah Avenue, Islamabad, Pakistan. To contact us now, please follow the instructions below.

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