plter 2 color for pms ink printing only

HOT DAYS ALONG THE WEST ANTARCTIC PENINSULA

(computer generated color is not accurate to pms ink color) This file is used only when printing using PMS ink (549U, K(black) ie. tshirts using 2 colors of ink

Monday, July 2, 12

LTER Palmer has maintained a 19 year time series along the West Antarctic Peninsula

Current team The Boss!

Our Current grid

Bill Fraser (Polar Associates) - Penguins & Fish

Karen Baker (Scripps) - Data management & Informatics

PI Hugh Ducklow (MBL) Bacteria-Biogeochemistry Scott Doney (WHOI) - Ocean Modeling Beth Simmons (Scripps) - Education & Outreach

Oscar Schoeld (Rutgers) - Phytoplankton Sharon Stammerjohn (UCSC) Doug Martinson (LDEO) - Ocean Physics - Climate and Ice Debbie Steinberg (VIMS) - Zooplankton
Monday, July 2, 12

Acknowledgements to past LTER PIs: Ray Smith, Barbara Prezelin, Robin Ross, Langdon Quetin, Dave Karl, Maria Vernet, Eileen Hoffman, John Klinck, Dave Karl

The man!

Monday, July 2, 12

The man!

Monday, July 2, 12

The central hypothesis when the LTER began was that sea ice timing and magnitude structure the productivity and composition of the Antarctic ecosystem. The ice dynamics are driven by large-scale interactions of the atmosphere and ocean.

Winter 2007

Summer 2007

Monday, July 2, 12

Temperature Trends (degrees C per year) -0.2

Monday, July 2, 12

0.2

The WAP peninsula is experiencing the largest winter warming on Earth

Air temperature increases over the peninsula Sea ice duration drops

Mean Winter Temperatures

Black is British Faraday & Ukraine Vernadsky Station Red is US Palmer Station
Monday, July 2, 12

The WAP peninsula is experiencing the largest winter warming on Earth

Monday, July 2, 12

The WAP peninsula is experiencing the largest winter warming on Earth

Larson-B ice shelf after its collapse Thanks to BAS & A. Clarke

Monday, July 2, 12

Wind%Speed% 8.00% SAM%DJF% Linear%(Wind%Speed)% 7.50% Linear%(SAM%DJF)%

WAP$Wind$Speed$DJF$
Correlation = 0.55
4.00%

3.00%

7.00%

2.00%

6.50%

1.00%

6.00%

0.00%

5.50%

!1.00%

5.00%

!2.00%

4.50%

!3.00%

4.00% 1950%

1960%

1970%

1980%

1990%

2000%

2010%

!4.00% 2020%

Monday, July 2, 12

Melt pools on surface of King George VI Sound

(from a BAS twin otter, January 2004)

Monday, July 2, 12

Seasonal ice has declined over the few decades resulting to a climate migration y 1 a to the South M
0 00 2

15 eb F

Sea ice data courtesy of E. Chapman

% r ve co Ice

Monday, July 2, 12

ar e Y
80 19

Seasonal ice has declined over the few decades resulting to a climate migration y 1 a to the South M
0 00 2

15 eb F

Sea ice data courtesy of E. Chapman

% r ve co Ice

Key Implications: Regional shifts in the sea ice has major ecological implications
Monday, July 2, 12

ar e Y
80 19

1990

As a grad student
Monday, July 2, 12

Monday, July 2, 12

Palmer Station in the present

photo by Bill Fraser

Monday, July 2, 12

Plants at Palmer Station, the greening of Antarctica

Monday, July 2, 12

Heat input from Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC - worlds largest ocean current = ~30,000 Niagara Falls). The heat is driven onto the shelf by intensication of upwellingfavorable winds.

Monday, July 2, 12

Heat input from Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC - worlds largest ocean current = ~30,000 Niagara Falls). The heat is driven onto the shelf by intensication of upwellingfavorable winds.

Monday, July 2, 12

Heat input from Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC - worlds largest ocean current = ~30,000 Niagara Falls). The heat is driven onto the shelf by intensication of upwellingfavorable winds.

The WAP is the only location in the Antarctic where the ACC is adjacent to the shelf break. The ACC is Antarcticas warmest water

Monday, July 2, 12

10 year analysis annual trends

ice decline

Monday, July 2, 12

Barnett et al., 2001!

State of the Climate Report, 2009!

Monday, July 2, 12

WW

UCDW

Distance Offshore (km)

Monday, July 2, 12

Antarctic Peninsula

Depth (m)

Tmax

thanks to Doug Martinson

Upwelling favorable winds result in Ekman mass transport offshore

Monday, July 2, 12

5.2 2.0

7 Eddies, based on Tmax and Q transients (300.100)

5.0 1.9

Identified from Q characteristics and Tmax values ( ~6.66 day)

Q (x109 Jm-2)

T (C)

4.8 1.8

4.6 1.7

4.4 1.6

4.2 1.5 4.0 1.4

Monday, July 2, 12

Month/day (2008)

thanks to Doug Martinson

~ 1 day ~30 km ~ 1.5 days ~40-50 km ~ 1 day ~30 km

~ 1 day ~30 km

2011: Eddies moving across shelf?

Monday, July 2, 12

Red = offshore transport Blue = onshore transport

Monday, July 2, 12

The decadal changes have resulted changes in the phytoplankton

The change in chlorophyll since the 1970s

The changes driven by a decline in sea ice, wind and sun

Montes Hugo et al. Science 2009

Monday, July 2, 12

When chlorophyll is high, phytoplankton cells are big and are largely diatoms

Montes Hugo et al. 2009

Monday, July 2, 12

15 year time series of radiocarbon measurements also suggest a North & South gradient

Vernet et al. DSR 2008

Monday, July 2, 12

Time series at Palmer Station

Monday, July 2, 12

0.30

EOF_1 (SAM - DJF) & MEI - Yearly

Correlation = 0.53

1.5%

0.20

1.0%

PC1 SeaWIFS Chl-a

SeaWiFS Chl-a EOF 1

0.10 0.5%

15.8%
-63 -64 -65 -66 -67

SAM, MEI

0.00

0.0%

-0.10

!0.5%

-69
-0.20 !1.0%

-67

-65

-63

-61

-59

-0.30 1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

!1.5% 2012

Thanks Grace & Vince Saba

Monday, July 2, 12

Monday, July 2, 12

What regulates phytoplankton blooms in this region?

3 mg

0
Integrated chlorophyll a above the mixed layer
m-3

CHL a
UML

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

100 0 25
0 mol l-1

NO3

100 0 2
0 mol l-1

PO4

mixed layer depth (m)

0

100
DEC JAN FEB

Monday, July 2, 12

100

B) cryptophytes

% chlorophyll a associated with phytoplankton taxa

50 A) diatoms C) mixed flagellates D) prasinophytes

0 100

50

0 E) type-4 haptophytes

01/01/95

01/01/05

80% of the chlorophyll variance can be explained by diatoms. The next most signicant player are the cryptomonads (~15%)
01/01/95 01/01/05 Date (day/month/year)

Monday, July 2, 12

100m Thalassiosira antarctica

Corethron criophilum

Palmer Cryptophytes --> 8 2m

SEM Micrographs fromMcMinn and Hodgson 1993

10m Cryptomonas cryophila

Monday, July 2, 12

>300!

Watercolumn Integrated Chlorophyll a

Watercolumn Integrated Alloxanthin

Data from the 20 year Palmer time series

200!

100!

0! Watercolumn Integrated Fucoxanthin

Monday, July 2, 12

Fucoxanthin (mg
250 1991-1992 50

-2) m
1996-1997

Alloxanthin (mg
50 200

-2) m
40

150

2002-2003

0 12/1/91 40 1992-1993

0 0 03/1/92 11/18/96 4 20

1997-1998

0 03/24/97 50

0 11/01/02 400

2005-2006

0 04/01/03 200

0 10/25/92 200 1994-1995

0 0 02/8/93 12/01/97 40 20 1998-1999

0 04/10/98 50

0 11/01/05 400

2006-2007

0 05/01/06 25

0 11/21/94 400 1995-1996

0 0 02/27/95 10/01/98 40 1000

2000-2001

0 02/01/99 10

0 10/01/05 20 2008-2009

0 04/01/06 80

0 11/15/95

0 0 01/08/96 11/01/99

0 04/01/00

0 11/01/08

0 04/01/09

Date (month/day/year)
Monday, July 2, 12

modied UCDW

sea ice melt winter water

Monday, July 2, 12

Moline et al. GBC 2004

Monday, July 2, 12

A general feature in the warming WAP?

Temperature (C)

Salinity (ppt)

Density ()

Location
South Shetland Islands Weddell-ScotiaBellingshausen Confluence Areas

Reference
V illafae et al., 1995; Kang, S-H et al., 1997; Kang, J-S et al., 1997 Lancelot et al., 1991; Nothig et al., 1991 Trguer et al., 1991; Buma, 1992; Mura et al., 1995; Kang and Lee, 1995; Aristegui et al., 1996 McMinn and Hodgson, 1993 Kang and Lee, 1995; Kang et al., 1995 Krebs, 1983 Whitaker, 1982

Ellis Fjord Bransfield Strait Historical Data Anvers Island Signy Island
Monday, July 2, 12

Salinity (p.p.t) 33.3 33.6 33.8 Palmer Station

65S

Antarctic Peninsula
64W % Cryptophytes 0 25 50

65S

Moline et al. GBC 2004

Monday, July 2, 12

Ship grid (Not as clear a result)

Monday, July 2, 12

Cryptophyte (morph A)

Cryptophyte+
1000 1500

Diatom all

800

200

Frequency 500 1000

Frequency 400 600

2.0

2.5

3.0 3.5 log10 area

4.0

4.5

2.0

2.5

3.0 3.5 log10 area

4.0

4.5

Monday, July 2, 12

7000

Flagellate
150

Discard

thanks to Andrew Irwin and Zoe Finkel

Crypto (straight morph)

Monday, July 2, 12

Human classication

Classication summary
Group
Diatoms Dinos Flag. predator Others Total

Count
7360 555 486 22735

%
51 32 2.4 2.1

Cryptophytes 11484

2850 12.5

Classied as Cryptophyte A Cryptophyte F Cryptophyte H Diatom Diatom (charisma6c) Diatom (fuzzy) Diatom (poten6al) Dot agellate Dot agellate 2 Flagellate straight Fuzzy Gymnodinium 1 Gymnodinium 2 Gyrodinium Junk LRT Nanoagellate Pigment Prasinophyte Telonema spp. Torodinium spp Unknown Air bubble Bead Ciliate Corethron spp. Dinoagellate Gonyaulacaceae Phaeocys6s spp. (cells) Phaeocys6s spp. (colony) Spines Tin6nnid

Larger category Flagellate all Flagellate all Flagellate all Diatom all Diatom all Diatom all Diatom all Flagellate all Flagellate all Flagellate all Discard Flagellate all Flagellate all Flagellate all Discard Other Flagellate all Discard Flagellate all Other Flagellate all Other Discard Discard Discard Diatom all Flagellate all Flagellate all Other Other Discard Discard

Automatic classication
Flagellate Flagellate Diatom Dinoagellate Other Discard % agree Diatom Dinoagellate Other Discard % agree

3939 665 202 487 363 70

940 6803 67 323 1392 71

115 31 119 73 26 32

931 538 409 760 180 34 1444 233 426 10848 42 87

61 78 20 56 83 74

Automatic classication matches 74% of human classication All particles were classied/corrected by hand Human classication has an error/uncertainty rate of 5-10%

Monday, July 2, 12

Relative abundance of major groups

Cryptophytes
64 64

CryptAH
64
0.8

CryptF
0.20

FlagStraight
64

0.20

0 .0 5

0. 2

65

65

65

0.4

0.6
0.8

0.2

65

0.6

0.6

0.15

0.1

0.15

5 0.0

0.4 0.6

0.4

66

66

66

66

0.2

0.6

0.4

0.10

0.1

0.4

0.1

0.10

0.0 5

0.15

67

67

67

67

0.1 0.1 5

.05

0. 1

68

68

68

68

0.2

0.2

15 0.

0.05

0.05

0.2

0.05

0.00

69

69

69

0.00

75

70 X Diatom

65

75

70 X Dinoflagellate

65

75

70 X Predator

65

69

0.0

0.0

75

70 X Other

65

0.22

0.20

64

64

64

0.7

64

0.20
0.15

0.025

65

65

65

0.2

0.15

14

02

65

0.4

0.6

0.

0.030

0.5
1

66

0.4

66

66

0.

66

0 0. 16 .18

0.05

0. 1

0. 2

0.1

0.

0.0

0.18

0.16

0.4

0.10

0.025

67

67

67

67

0.14

0.3

0.6

0.0 3

68

68

68

0.2

0.020

68

0.3

5 0.02

0.

0.05

0.12

0.5

0.7

0.02

69

69

69

75

70

65

75

70

65

75

70

65

69

0.1

0.10

75

70

65

Monday, July 2, 12

Zooplankton are dominated by krill or salps

Krill greatest biomass of any animal on earth

Monday, July 2, 12

Monday, July 2, 12

% Retention by Krill

100 80 60 40 20 0 100 80 60 40 20 0 50 40 30 20 10 0

McClatchie and Boyd 1983

5-10

>15 Boyd et al. 1984

5-10

>15

Quetin and Ross 1985

5-10

>15

Phytoplankton Size (m)

Monday, July 2, 12

From Loeb et al., 1997

Krill:Salp

100 10 1 0.1 0.01 0.001 2 6

Krill:Salp

80 100

82

84

86

R 2 = 0.56 10 1 0.1 0.01 0.001

Year

88

90

92

94

96

Krill:Salp

100 10 1 0.1 0.01 0.001 R 2 = 0.63 -4

Ice Index

Mean Air Temperature (C)

Monday, July 2, 12

-2

Ice Index

Monday, July 2, 12

Is there an impact on higher trophic levels?

Monday, July 2, 12

Monday, July 2, 12

One focus idea of the LTER is testing, is that system is undergoing climate migration. We have structured sampling around the major Adelie penguin breeding areas along the peninsula.

Summer foraging areas for Adelie penguins

Winter foraging areas for Adelie penguins

To be expanded by NASA grant awarded in Dec.

Monday, July 2, 12

Anvers Island
Monday, July 2, 12

Anvers Island
Monday, July 2, 12

Changing diets for the Adelie penguins

Monday, July 2, 12

Changing diets for the Adelie penguins

1% 1%

1994present
98%

Krill Fish Other

Monday, July 2, 12

Changing diets for the Adelie penguins

1% 1%

1994present
98%

Krill Fish Other

1%

1995present

45% 54%

Monday, July 2, 12

Krill cohorts over time High chlorophyll anomaly years

PERCENT
50-60 40-50

**

30-40 20-30

56-65 51-55 46-50 41-45 36-40 31-35 26-30 16-25

10-20 0-10

8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 -8 8-8 9-9 0-9 1-9 2-9 3-9 4-9 5-9 6-9 7-9 8-9 9-0 0-0 1-0 2-0 3-0 4-0 5-0 6-0 7-0 8-0 9-1 0-1 1-1 87 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
YEAR

Monday, July 2, 12

SIZE CLASS

Monday, July 2, 12

Monday, July 2, 12

NORMALIZED OTOLITH ABUNDANCE IN DIET SAMPLES

-0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 -1 0 1 2

19 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 83 87 19 19 19 88 89 90 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19

Silverfish

Lanternfish

YEAR

19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01

LANTERFISH

ANTARCTIC SILVERFISH

If that was not enough, warmer temps leads to more moisture and more snow. Breeding failure...........

Monday, July 2, 12

Monday, July 2, 12

70 West

69 West Rothera Station

Old Day Communication

Brave New Day

Adelaide Island

68 South WHOI Drifter Ocean Station Obama RU05 Plan RU05 Actual

RV Gould Rothera Base

Real time comms

HAM Operator Coms Palmer Station 1988 Rutgers COOLroom

Monday, July 2, 12

Enhanced productivity is associated with the warm upwelled water

Monday, July 2, 12

Glider measurements of Fv/Fm indicate that the phytoplankton populations associated with upwelling are healthy

Monday, July 2, 12

Monday, July 2, 12

Monday, July 2, 12

Results from the 2011 eld season: Tidal structuring of the penguin foraging Moline, Oliver, Frazer, Kohut, Schoeld

Radio-tagged penguins Adelie (blue) Gentoo (red) Chinstrap (green)

Blue = semi-diurnal tides Red = diurnal tides

Monday, July 2, 12

Glider currents

Monday, July 2, 12

Design, Testing and Deploy

Observatory (simulated) data Models

~3 km ~100 m

Sensor & Platform

Virtual Ocean

Data Assimilation

Data Analysis Science Questions & Drivers

Science Community Workshop 1
Monday, July 2, 12

Data Synthesis: Nowcast & Data Impact

5

Conclusions: Minor variations in the ocean state can have profound impacts on polar ecosystems These profound changes are occurring in many polar oceans, changes appear to be accelerating New technologies offer a mode to study and understand these changes, so it is time hopefully speed up our uphill trek to quantitative understanding, animals will help show us the way

Monday, July 2, 12

Monday, July 2, 12