7/20/12

PRIVATE
BANKING
Where Banking
Click to edit Master
subtitle Meets
style Investment

Eduardo Martnez
Patricio Novales
Soraya Snchez

7/20/12

Index

7/20/12

Introduction

Investin
g in
Stocks

Source: Offshore Company India Services.

Risk

CADIVI
SITME
BONDS

Source: COFACE: Venezuela Country Risk.

Mayor oil gas

and mining
resouces.
Rally of 30%
since October.
Possible political
change.

7/20/12

Investing in Bonds

7/20/12
Source: Bloomberg. Miguel Octavio; Venezuelan economist and blogger.

Source: Economtrica.

7/20/12

P
r
i
c
e
s

Risk

Source: COFACE: Chile Country Risk. Bloomberg.

Developing
country.
Abundant
natural
resources.
Good business
environment.

7/20/12

7/20/12
Source: Bloomberg.

Risk

Source: COFACE: Germany Country Risk. Bloomberg.

Solid industrial
base.
Competitiveness
and weak
sensitivity to
exchange rates.
R&D.

7/20/12

7/20/12
The German Government Bond issuance
is considered a gold standard or
benchmark in Europe (even after the
creation of the Euro).
Source: Bloomberg.

Commodities
tends to focus more on the "super" and less on the
"cycle.This one could turn in 2014.The current
commodity supercycle can be dated to 1999. Since then,
the S&P GSCI index has risen fivefold (WSJ ,14-3-2012)

Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303717304577277621046368962.html

7/20/12

Discussion of the supposed commodity "supercycle"

Commodities

7/20/12

30% of the portfolio

Choice 2012-13: Live Cattle

Date
Apr'12

Live Cattle: Futures

US Dollar Cents/Pound
High
Low
118.325
118.325

Last
118.325

Jun'12

115.825

115.825

115.825

Aug'12

118.475

118.475

118.475

Oct'12

123.975

123.975

123.975

Dec'12

125.975

125.975

125.975

Feb'13

126.825

126.825

126.825

Apr'13

127.725

127.725

127.725

Jun'13

124.800

124.800

124.800

Aug'13

125.150

125.150

125.150

Sources: http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-commodities-outlook-2011-12
http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-commodity-outlook-2012-3
Rabobank Report: Outlook 2012 Down, but not out, Commodity research, January 2012.

7/20/12

Chicago Mercantile Exchange

Choice 2012: Gold

2012 High

2012 Low

2012 Average

William Adams
$2,230
$1,500
$1,785
Daniel Brebner
$2,100
$1,545
$1,825
Bayram Dincer
$1,950
$1,450
$1,770
Philip Klapwijk
$2,005
$1,530
$1,760
Martin Murenbeeld
$2,125
$1,450
$1,835
Eddie Nagao
$1,800
$1,300
$1,525
Ross Norman
$2,100
$1,590
$1,765
Frederic Panizzutti
$2,120
$1,550
$1,808
Thorsten Proettel
$1,950
$1,220
$1,640
Jeffrey Rhodes
$1,975
$1,465
$1,727
James Steel
$2,050
$1,450
$1,850
We still anticipate significant annual increases in gold and silver
Anne-Laure
$2,100
$1,500
$1,775
Tremblay
prices
in 2012 from strong investment demand (Morgan Stanley
*Edel1-18-2012)
Tully
$2,500
$1,400
$2,050
report,
All Forecast
contributors
to increase in 2012
by at
Matthew
Turner
$2,100 expect gold
$1,425
$1,782
least
10%.Vaidya
() hit record
highs again this$1,440
year, with a predicted
Bhargava
$1,900
$1,600

average high of $2,055 (London Bullion Market Association 2012

$2,010
$1,425
$1,750
Forecast)

Wolfgang Wrzesniok
Averages

$2,055

$1,443

Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204468004577167913292060748.html
London Bullion Market Association 2012 Forecast, January 2012.

$1,766

7/20/12

Analyst Name

Choice 2013: Base metals

London Metal Exchange
price,
4-4-2012

(London Metal Exchange+

Nordea+ Morgan Stanley
average)

Copper

8.451,50

8.500

Aluminum

2.059,50

2.500

Nickel

18.035,00

21.000

Source: Nordic Metals & Mining, 5 October 2011, Nordea Equity Research.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/update/01/index.htm

Expected 2013*
7/20/12

US$/tonne

USA
Rating: AA+
Outlook:
Negative

Nordic
countries
Rating: AAA
Outlook:
Stable

Germany
Rating: AAA
Outlook:
Stable

7/20/12

Stocks

Canada
Rating: AAA
Outlook:
Stable

UK
Rating: AAA
Outlook:
Stable

Source: S&Ps credit ratings for each country http://chartsbin.com/view/1177

Australia
Rating: AAA
Outlook:
Stable

Macro data
CANADA

GERMANY

2011

2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013

GDP growth %

1.53

1.78 2.54 2.5

Inflation %

2.99

1.21 0.90 2.56 2.025 2.037 2.24 1.30 1.60

Unemployment
(%)

9.09

9.04 8.54 7.65 7.70 7.24 6.00 6.15 6.39

1.95 2.50 2.72 1.27 1.50

Current account -3.10

(%Balance)

-2.12 -1.71 -3.33 -3.81 -3.51 5.04 4.92 4.78

Public Debt (%
GDP)

105

100

108

34.9 36.8 37.0 82.6 81.9 80.9

Source: FMI http://www.expansion.com/economia/datosmacro.html

7/20/12

USA

AUSTRALIA

UNITED KINGDOM NORDIC

COUNTRIES
(SWEDEN)

2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013

GDP growth %

1.80 3.32 3.42 1.14 1.58 2.37 4.39 3.85 3.50

Inflation %

3.54 3.32 3.47 4.51 2.44 2.00 3.00 2.50 1.48

Unemployment
(%)

4.97 4.80 4.80 7.75 7.81 7.76 7.37 6.57 5.77

Current account
(%Balance)

-2.18 -4.67 -5.40 -2.72 -2.30 -1.68 5.83 5.27 5.07

Public Debt (%
GDP)

22.82 23.82 22.96 80.76 84.77 85.95 36.03 32.59 29.16

Source: FMI http://www.expansion.com/economia/datosmacro.html

7/20/12

Macro data

Indexes (2009-2011)
OMX STOCKHOLM
INDEX
7/20/12

NASDAQ 100

28.80
%*

DAX INDEX

22.2%
*

ASX LIMITED

26.26%
*
*Last six months evolution
Source: www.prorealtime; www.bloomberg.com

11.11%
*

FTSE 100
INDEX

12.48%*

P/E

ROE

DIV.
YIELD

PRICE TO NET
BOOK
PROFIT
VALUE
MARGIN

DEBT /
EQUITY

16,8

20,6%

3,5%

5,4

2,3%

78,1

Industrial Goods21,5

13,6%

2,31%

7,6

7,0%

44,7

Consumer
17,9
Goods (brewer)

20,0%

1,4%

12

20,3%

33,2

Utilities (gas)

11,7%

4,1%

8,2%

50,1

24,9%

1,7%

10,5

23,2%

29,3

Services
(Wholesales)

22

Technology
17,5
(appl software)

Source:http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/ind_index.html

7/20/12

Sector analysis

P/E

ROE

DIV.
YIELD

PRICE TO NET
BOOK
PROFIT
VALUE
MARGIN

DEBT /
EQUITY

11,3

10,4%

2,4%

1,2

7,2%

35,5

Basic materials 19,3

(agricultural
chemicals)

17,9%

1,7%

4,6

15,2%

47,1

Conglomerates 15,20 20,50% 2,05%

18,9

13,10%

123,9

Healthcare
(Drug
manufacturer)

19,9

16,7%

72,2

Financial
(insurance)

17,2

15,8%

Source:http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/ind_index.html

4,4%

7/20/12

Sector analysis

SAP

Founded in
1972, SAP
applications
and services
enable more
than 183,000
customers
worldwide to
operate
Source: www.sap.com
profitably,

2011

2010

2009

Total rev

14,233

14

12,464 17

10,672

Total op ex

9,352

-5

9,873

22

8,084

Op profit

4,881

88

2,591

0.1 2,588

Profit

3,439

89

1,813

BS (M.)

2011

T current assets 9,669

2010

1,750
%

2009

36

7,143 36

5,255

T non current
asset

13,556 -1

13,696 69

8,119

T assets

23,225 11

20,839 56

13,374

T current
Liabilities

6,266

5,153 51

3,416

T liabilities

10,518 -4.5 11,015 126 4,883

22

7/20/12

SAP is the
leader in
enterprise
application
software.

IS (M.)

CF 2011

% 2010

CFO 3,775 29

2,922

2009

-3

3,019

CFI

-1,226 -69 -3,994 1235 -299

CFF

-1,176

2,520

-2,170

SAP

INDUSTRY

1.54

2.9

Quick R. 1.54

2.8

Curr. R.

(IFRS)

2011

2010

Software rev

3,971

3,265

22%

Soft. Services rev.11,319 9,794

16%

Solvency 45%

Operating profit

88%

Debt/Eq. 83%

4,881

Operating margin 34.3%

2,591

2.89

4340

20.8% 65%

Source: www.sap.com; http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SAP:GR

Earnings per

NWC

1.52

90

FCFE

2,844

80%

7/20/12

SAP

SAP
Market
Cap

Revenue Gross
margin

Op
margin

63.35

14.23

71.25%

34.30% 18.41 0.90%

IBM software 181.85

79.97

46.90%

20.44% 16.03 1.4%

Microsoft
Corporation

203,36

54

76.38%

38.04% 11.72 2.5%

Oracle
corporation

110.12

27.72

78.31%

37.52% 15.46 0.80%

Industry

187.87

84.95

71.27%

8.00%

SAP

Source:http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=SAP+Competitors

P/E

Dividend
yield

27.30 1.7%

7/20/12

SAP

23/03/20
12
53.5
2009-2011=30%

04/10/20
02
10.52
Source: www.Prorealtime.com

19/09/20
11
35.8

7/20/12

06/06/20
00
61.11

IS (M.)

BAYER AG is
Total rev
a global
enterprise
Total op ex
with core
competencie
Op profit
s in the
fields of
BS (M.)
Profit
health care,
nutrition and T current assets
high-tech
T non current
materials.

2011

36,528 4

2010

2009

35,088 12.6 31,168

32,379 0.06 32,358 14.9 28,162

4,149

51.9 2,730

-9.2 3,006

2011
2,470 %
88.5 2010
1,310 %
-3.6 2009
1,359
20,068 9.5 18,318 7.8 16,993
32,697 -1.5 33,188 -2.5

34,049

T assets

52,765 2.4

51,042

T current
Liabilities

13,390 28.9 10,835 20.7 8,973

T liabilities

33,494 2.71 32,610 1.6

assets

Source: http://www.bayer.de/de/Homepage.aspx

51,506 0.9

32,091

7/20/12

BAYER AG

Die BrseFrankfurt

CF 2011

% 2010

2009

CFO 5,060 -12 5,773

7.4

5,375

CFI

-3,890 61 -2,414

60.8 -1501

CFF

-2,213

-3,230

-3,246

BAYER

INDUSTRY

1.5

2.15

Quick R. 0.9

1.85

Curr. R.
NWC

(IFRS)

2011

2010

4,149

2,730

51.9

Operating margin 11.36

7.78

46

Earnings per
share

1.301

89.8

Operating profit

2.47

Dividend
share(25/03/2012);
1.65
1.50
Source: Bloomberg
www.bayer.de

10

9,372

Solvency 22.1%
Debt/Eq

60.8%

FCFE

2,002

67.8%

7/20/12

BAYER AG

BAYER AG
Market
Cap

Revenue Gross
margin

Operating P/E
margin

BAYER AG

44

36

51.2

11.36

18.05 3.11

JOHNSON &
JOHNSON

135

48.6

67.2

24.8

18.7

3.4

DOW
CHEMICAL

31

45

18.8

8.8

14.9

2.9

PFIZER

127

50.536

75.7

23.2

19.4

3.9

INDUSTRY

40.7

48

53.9

18.9

17.2

4.4

Source: Bloomberg (25/03/2012)

Dividend
yield
7/20/12

B.

22/12/20
00
35.8

28/03/20
12
53.3

20092011=50%

Source: www.prorealtime.com

17/03/200
3
10.20

19/09/20
11
35.8

7/20/12

BAYER AG

Developing Countries
Fund Name

Overall Rating
TAIWAN
WisdomTree Emg Mkts Eqty Inc FdRating: AAC+
Outlook:
GDP
+4.8%
PowerShares DWA Emg Mkts Tech LeadStable
C+
WisdomTree Emg Mkts SmCap Div Fd BRASIL
Rating:
BBB
INFLATION
+1.9%
SPDR S&P Emerging Latin America ETF
Outlook:
Stable
SPDR S&P International Div ETF

FISCAL
DEFICIT
SPDR
S&P Emerg
Middle East&Africa

-1.9%

Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF

C+

PowerShares Emg Mkts Infrastructure

Source: S&Ps credit ratings for each country http://chartsbin.com/view/1177

World Bank, 2012 Economic Outlook

B+4%
C+

C+

C+
+4.5%
B-

C+

B-

C+

-2.9%
B-

C
10% of
10% the
C
portfolio

SPDR
S&P Emerging
SECTOR
GDP Markets ETF

Risk Grade

B*14%BC+

7/20/12

Top profitable Emerging countries ETFs 2012

(in yellow
top investments TAIWAN
in Brazil and Taiwan):
2012-2014
Average
BRAZIL

7/20/12

Taiwan: IT sector

$ billion

NET
INCOME

REVENEU

RATING
(Fitch)

Outlook

Taiwan Semiconductor
Manufacturing
Co(Semiconductor)

$5.55

$13.98

AAA

Stable

HTC Corporation
(Telecom)

$1.673

$11.95

AAA

Stable

FOXCONN(Electronic
manufacturing)

$1.3

$36.33

AA+

Stable

Bloomberg
OCDE Brazil Country Report,

Brazil: Infrastructure Related

7/20/12

Industry

Too
companies
$ billion

NET
INCOME

REVENEU

RATING
(Fitch)

Outlook

Vale SA (Metals/Mining)

4.57

14.85

BBB+

Stable

CSN SA ( Steel & Cement)

1.9

8.8

BBB-

Positive

Itausa SA(Conglomerate:
Real State, metals)

2.5

30.1

AA-

Stable

Bloomberg
OCDE Brazil Country Report,
www.oecd.org/country/0,3731,en_33873108_36016449_1_1_1_1_1,00.html

Uncertainty and volatility rule

global markets.
Hard researching effort ahead for
investors trying to play safe.
Under a constant revision of
numbers as challenges remain.

7/20/12

Conclusions

7/20/12

Money Never Sleeps

Gordon Gekko.

Henkel Garca. Analyst and Finance Instructor.

President of Visin Inversin and Director of
Econometrica, IE C.A.
Skype interview. Interviewed: 10/03/12.

7/20/12

Sources

COFACE. Country Risk and Economic Research.

Available:
http://www.coface.com/
Access date: 11/03/12.

Offshore Company India Services. Available:

http://www.incorporation-offshore-saves-wealth.com/privateAccess date: 10/03/12.

Banco Central de Chile. Available:

http://www.bcentral.cl/index.asp

Reuters.

CIA The World Factbook.

Live cattle prices can they rise again in 2012.

Available:
www.agrimoney.com/feature/live-cattle-prices--can-they-rise-again-in-2012--131.html
Access date: 4/04/12

7/20/12

Acces date: 20/03/12.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/ind_index.html

www.sap.com

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SAP:GR

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=SAP+Competitors

http://www.bayer.de/de/Homepage.aspx

Bloomberg platform

S&Ps credit ratings for each country. Available:

http://chartsbin.com/view/1177

FMI data http://www.expansion.com/economia/datosmacro.html

www.prorealtime

Econstats

7/20/12