Process Decision Programme Chart

By ADITI # 02 KANAK # 10

PURPOSE
The purpose of process decision programme chart is to

prepare for abnormal occurrences with low probability which may otherwise be overlooked and to present the occurrences as well as the necessary countermeasures to guard against such occurrences in the form of a visual chart. The tool forces one to think of the possible obstacles in the smooth progress of a process or a project and then find ways and means to surmount those obstacles to ensure the successful and timely completion of the process or the project. Thus the tool helps one to prepare a contingency plan to achieve the objective if adverse events occur.

PROCEDURE
The steps in the preparation of a process decision programme

chart are : Prepare a normal flowchart of the process with all expected events as steps in the chart. Consider the possibility of the process not going as per the plan due to any abnormal, though less probable, occurrences. Show these occurrences on the flowchart through branching at appropriate locations. Consider how the abnormal occurrence will affect the process and search for ways and means to counter the effect. Show these countermeasures in rectangles connecting the corresponding abnormal occurrence on one side and the process objective or the goal on the other. Give a suitable title to the diagram

How to do it
1.

Identify the objective of using PDPC. For example, 'To identify risks in a specific area of a plan, and to identify countermeasures where the cost of the risk occurring is greater than a certain figure'. Ensure that the situation merits the use of PDPC. This will usually be when risks are either unknown or may have serious consequences if they occur. The plan should be available and complete, unless the PDPC activity is being used as an integral part of the planning process. Identify the areas of the plan which need to be examined in order to meet the objectives. If it is a large plan, then attempting to examine all elements of it will result in a practical limitation on the effort that can be put into each element. It is usually better to use PDPC only on the higher risk areas of the plan.

2.

Gather the people to work on the PDPC. Between them, they should have as wide a view as possible of the situation, so that diverse risks may be identified. These may include: High-level managers who can see the 'big picture' and relationships with other people and events. Experts in specific elements of the plan who can see potential problems with planned actions. People experienced in planning and using PDPC, who may have discovered other problems in similar situations.
3.

4.

Identify the criteria for making decisions during construction of the PDPC. These include: How to identify a risk (step 5). For example, 'Something that has a significant effect on the schedule completion time'. How to select risks that need countermeasures to be identified (step 6). For example, 'The top 10% of identified risks and also those for which simple countermeasures are obvious'. How to identify countermeasures (step 7). For example, 'A measure that has a good chance of reducing the identified risk'. How to select countermeasures to implement (step 8). For example, 'Those which cost less than the savings they would make if they were implemented'. Factors to consider when identifying selection criteria include: Time. How much time would a risk cost? Is it on the critical path of the schedule? How much time could countermeasures save? Cost. What would be the overall cost of a risk occurring? What would be the cost of a countermeasure? Would it be worth it? Control. How much control do you have for preventing the risk? What control would you have should it occur? How could you change that? Information. How much do you know about the risk? What warning would you have of its impending occurrence?

Applications
The tool has the widest range of applications as it can be used for

a range of activities from simple ones like a game of bridge or reaching railway station or airport in time to catch a train or a plane to complex processes or projects. In fact if can be applied to all processes to ensure their success by systematically minimising the untoward effect of unexpected adverse occurrences. Through the process of brainstorming for possible adverse occurrences and for measures to counter them, one assures the success of the process even if such events do occur. The tool can be used to prevent problems by identifying opportunities for error and devising measures to avoid failure. It can be used during the implementation of solutions for predicting resistance and for planning measures to overcome the resistance

5. For each plan element to be considered, identify potential problems that could occur. Ask, 'What if ...', using Brainstorming techniques to identify a broad range of risks. This can be helped by using a checklist of questions to ask.These risks can either be written down in a separate list or on 3" x 5" cards that can be moved about during step 6. Cards are particularly useful if larger numbers of risks are being identified or if the PDPC is being done as a part of a planning session which is also using cards. 6. For the risks identified in step 5, decide which ones should be carried forward onto the PDPC. These will be examined in more detail when determining countermeasures in step 8. This may be carried out by Voting, Prioritization Matrix or some other method for selecting items.To keep the PDPC manageable, select only a few risks per plan element (typically three or less).

7. Put the identified risks on the plan, using shaped boxes or some other method to enable these risks to be clearly differentiated from then plan elements. Steps 5 to 7 are illustrated below.

8. For each risk now on the PDPC, identify possible countermeasures in a similar manner to the identification of risks in step 5, but now asking, 'How can this risk be reduced?'. Look for methods of eliminating, reducing or handling the risk. 9. In a similar manner to step 6, prioritize these countermeasures and select those which are to be carried forward to the PDPC, using the criteria determined in step 4.

10. In the same way as step 7, add the selected countermeasures to the plan under the appropriate risk item. Steps 8 to 10 are illustrated below.

11. Carry out or otherwise prepare the selected countermeasures, ensuring that any changes to the plan are fully resourced and are treated thereafter as normal plan elements. Actions here might include: Changing the plan, e.g. to remove or replace high risk elements. Adding new elements to the plan, e.g. verification activities. Preparing contingency plans which will only be executed should specific risks occur.

Example
A dress production team at a clothes manufacturer was

improving the cutting-out process in order to minimize material wastage. They decided to use PDPC on the work breakdown structure to identify potential problems and ways of avoiding them. As the most expensive element is the material itself, they defined a significant risk as, 'Anything that might cause the cut cloth to be ruined', and viable countermeasures as, 'Anything that will reduce the risk, and which costs less than 100 pieces of cloth' .

The resulting PDPC is shown. As a result of this, the cutting was tested on cheaper material, resulting in the material clamp being redesigned to prevent drag, a start notch provided for the cutter and the general area being inspected for sharp corners to minimize snag problems. The cutting operator was involved in the PDPC process and the subsequent tests, resulting in her fully understanding the process. The final cutting process thereafter ran very smoothly with very little error.

Other examples
A structural engineering project manager uses it to help

find problems in a plan for constructing a road bridge. A kitchen hygiene improvement team uses PDPC to check for possible areas where infection could come into contact with consumable foodstuffs. An individual sub-project is then spawned for all identified danger areas. A mailroom project to improve delivery times uses it to help check the proposed solution, checking in particular that it will not have any side-effects that might upset other processes