Thin film solar technologies: prospects, opportunities, forecasts

Dr Harry Zervos
h.zervos@idtechex.com IDTechEx www.idtechex.com

Humanitys core problems in 2050

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. ENERGY WATER FOOD ENVIRONMENT POVERTY TERRORISM & WAR DISEASE EDUCATION DEMOCRACY POPULATION

2003 2050

6.3 8-10

Billion People Billion People

Global energy demands are currently unsatisfied

Source: Richard Smalley, Energy & Nanotechnology Conference, Houston.

Reduction of environmental impact

Energy Security Fossil fuels pricing

Need for new technologies in PV

The increasing demand for crystalline solar modules cannot be met due to an allocation lack of raw silicon on the global markets. This in turn leads to a shortfall in production coupled with higher and continually rising prices. Thus, suppliers of solar modules in particular become enormously dependent on previous stages of the value chain A typical crystalline solar cell uses a silicon wafer 200 to 300 microns thick. Si-PV presently consumes 10 to 15 metric tons of silicon per megawatt of solar cells produced Si can not meet requirements such as tightly rollable or transparent

Need for new technologies in PV

Process sequence for thin film module manufacturing

Process sequence for silicon module manufacturing

Source: AVANCIS

Energy Payback time

The time taken for the PV cell to recoup the energy that was expended in its production: - CdTe 1.1 Years - CIGS 1.2 years - Silicon 1.7 -2.7 years

New Applications
Ubiquitous, Flexible, Large Area PV Need of flexible, printable technologies that can guarantee: - Cheap, easy, quick manufacturing - Cheap raw materials

Flexible

Ubiquitous Solar power

Photovoltaics room for many technologies

Feeding the electricity grid long life, low cost per watt over life

InGaAs?

DSSC?
Transparent eg on face of a watch or window

Organic?
Light weight Eg cars

CIGS? Nano Si?

CIGS?

Small size eg ubiquitous sensors (thin and small footprint

PV paint
Organic?

eg mobile phone DSSC?

Long life and high reliability Large areas eg military possible at low cost eg power Tightly rollable, generation medium life low alongside upfront cost for roads

Radiation and heat tolerance Eg spacecraft

Generates electricity from heat as well as light Eg torch

DSSC?

Organic?

InGaAs?

Choice of technologies
Crystalline silicon Amorphous silicon Cadmium telluride Copper indium diselenide CIS family, notably copper indium gallium diselenide CIGS Dye sensitised solar cells DSSC Organic polymer or small molecule Others such as silicon nanoparticle ink, carbon nanotube CNT and quantum dots

Type a-Si

NanoSi CdTe

CIGS

Benefit or intended benefit Thin Film, Flexible substrates Potential for roll to roll processing unavailable for mono- or poly-Si. As above with high efficiency Fairly high efficiency Well proven Over $1 billion of orders Lowest cost/watt over life High efficiency at low cost long life transparent no disposal problems, printable Tolerant of polarised/ low level light-can use heat extreme angle of incoming light Transparent/colors, tightly rollable No disposal problems, printable Potential for lowest cost ? Large area possible Tightly rollable No disposal problems, Spray directly onto things?

Efficiency

8-10%

Challenges Constant degradation low efficiency Not tightly rollable Cd is toxic Controlled disposal only Not tightly rollable Price of indium. New process/ stability Liquids handling Price of ruthenium? 5 year life?

Companies Innovalight United Solar Mitsubishi Kovio First Solar Calyxo

High? 9-11%

10-14%

HONDA Global Solar Wurth Nanosolar G24i UK Dyesol Sony

DSSC

11%

Organic

2-6%

Cost Efficiency 1 year life? Narrow spectrum

Konarka Plextronics Heliatek

Thin Film PV Technologies

nanoparticle Si

CIGS/CIS

CdTe

DSSCs

Organic PV

Best Cell Efficiencies

TYPE OF CELL/ TECHNOLOGY BEST POWER CONVERSION EFFICIENCY (%)

Single crystalline silicon Multicrystalline silicon

24

18

Amorphous silicon
CIS, CIGS DSSC MultiJunctions (e.g. GaAs, InGaP) Organic & hybrid solar cells

13 ~20 11

~42
2-5

Source: NREL

Markets

Global Solar markets

-Germany dominates the solar market in Europe -Strong growth in other European countries, especially in southern Europe, will see Germany's share fall to about 50 percent in the next few years. -Photovoltaic (PV) power plants could be supplying 26 million households in the Mediterranean with electricity by 2020. -In 2040, PV could represent 25% of global electricity consumption.

Source: EPIA

Global Solar markets

Global Solar markets

Source: BSW Solar

Global Solar markets

Source: BSW Solar

German Market
International PV companies are also drawn to Germany by its network of producers, suppliers, and research institutes Nanosolar, Signet Solar, First Solar, ARISE Technologies Corporation

Source: Invest in Germany

Germany: the biggest market China: the biggest production hub

1200.6 MW

h.zervos@idtechex.com

China

www.IDTechEx.com

Top 6 thin film solar cell producers in 2007 (MW)

CdTe

a-Si

a-Si/-Si

h.zervos@idtechex.com

www.IDTechEx.com

However, only East Asia has many giant companies involved in non-silicon PV devices
USA Europe East Asia

Boeing

BASF, Shell, Bosch, CEA, EDF

Honda, Toyota, Seiko Epson, Konica Minolta, Matsushita, NEC, Sharp etc

Factors too important to be ignored...

Price of Silicon Efficiency of thin film technologies Government Incentives

Building Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV)

Big opportunity for TFPV Incentives (very strong in Metropolitan France, double the feed-in tariff than in the case of Non-BIPV

Energy from the Desert

Very large scale photovoltaic power generation (VLS-PV) systems Case-studies of both virtual and real projects based on selected regions (including the Mediterranean, Sahara, Chinese Gobi, Mongolian Gobi, Indian Thar, Australian Desert and the US)

Markets by Sector

For further information

Annual Conferences Photovoltaics Beyond Conventional Silicon USA: June 2009, Denver, USA Printed Electronics Asia: 8-9 October 2008 in Tokyo, Japan Printed Electronics USA: 3-4 December 2008 in San Jose, CA, USA www.idtechex.com/conferences/ Daily news analysed by experts Printed Electronics World www.idtechex.com/PEWorld

IDTechEx also carries out tailored projects markets, competition, technology forecasting, acquisition and investment targets, fund raising

For further information

Reports Printed and Thin Film Photovoltaics and Batteries Technologies, Forecasts and Players

by Dr Harry Zervos & Dr Bruce Kahn