Você está na página 1de 36

CE 385 D Water Resources

Planning and Management


Flood Management - 1

Daene C. McKinney
Floods
Floods affect the lives of
more than 65 million people
per year

More than any other type of
disaster, including war,
drought and famine

In East and Southeast Asia,
during the monsoon season,
rivers swell to over 10 times
the dry season flow

About 13% (of 45,000) of all
large dams in the world in
more than 75 countries
have a flood management
function
USGS - top; www.ci.austin.tx.us - bottom
Hydrologic Cycle
Runoff,
streamflow, Q(t)
Precipitation, P(t)
Flood Damage
Injuries and loss of life
Social disruption
Income loss
Emergency costs
Physical damage
Structures, utilities, autos, crops, etc.
Lost value of public agency services
Police & fire protection, hospitals, etc.
Tax loss
Property and sales

www.ci.austin.tx.us
Streamflow Hydrograph
Peak
Time
D
i
s
c
h
a
r
g
e
,

Q

Beginning of
Direct Runoff
Baseflow
Recession
Baseflow
Recession
Centroid of
Precipitation
Basin Lag
Time
of Rise
End of
Direct Runoff
Inflection
Point
Baseflow
Storm Runoff
Rainfall Divided
1. Direct runoff (P
e
)
2. Initial loss (before DRO, I
a
)
3. Continuing loss (after DRO, F
a
)

Time
P
r
e
c
i
p
i
t
a
t
i
o
n

p
t
a
I
a
F
e
P
a a e
F I P P + + =
Shoal Creek Flood - 1981
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0
Time (hr)
R
u
n
o
f
f

(
c
f
s
)
0
1
2
3
P
r
e
c
i
p

(
i
n
)
Precipitation
Streamflow
www.ci.austin.tx.us
Stream Gauging
Q = VA
Estimate:
Cross-sectional area
Average velocity
Subdivide cross-section
Determine "average" flow
for each subdivision
Sum for total flow
Stage - Discharge Curve
Stage (height) and discharge (flow rate)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
Discharge (cfs)
S
t
a
g
e

(
f
t
)
Extreme Events & Return Period
Extreme events:

Random variable (Q); Realization (q); Threshold q
T
Extreme event
if Q q
T

Recurrence interval
t = Time between occurrences of Q q
T

Return Period
T = E[t] = Average recurrence interval


Magnitude
1
Frequency of occurence
Guadalupe River near Victoria
000 , 50 =
T
q
Exceeded 16 times, 16 recurrence intervals in 69 years


E(t) ~ t =
69
16
= 4.3years
Exceedence
Year
Recurrence
Interval
1936
1940 4
1941 1
1942 1
1958 16
1961 3
1967 6
1972 5
1977 5
1981 4
1987 6
1992 5
1999 7
2002 3
2003 1
2005 2
Number 16
Years (05-36) 69

Pr(Q> q
T
) =
1
T

T = E(t)
Exceedance probability

Pr(Q> 50, 000) =
1
4.3
= 0.23
Return Period
Flow Exceedance Distribution
Q is RV: Annual Maximum Flow
q
T
is flow with return period of T years
Flow exceedance probability


Exceedance Distribution


Pr[Q> q
T
] =
1
T

Pr[Q> q
T
] =1 Pr[Q< q
T
]
=1 F
Q
(q
T
)
q
T
q
T
1
] Pr[ q Q>
Flow exceedance distribution
Events Considered in Design
Return periods (T)
1 100 years (Minor structures)
Highway culverts & bridges, Farm structures, urban
drainage, air fields, small dams (w/o LOL)
100 1000 years (Intermediate structures)
Major levees, intermediate dams
500 100,000 years (Major structures)
Large dams, intermediate & small dams (w LOL)
Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)
Probable Maximum Flood (PMF)
Flood Damage
Event damage
Damage from flood events (e.g., 10-, 50-, 100-year
events)
Used for emergency planning
Expected annual damage
Average annual damage for events that could
occur in any year
Used for project B/C analyses

US Federal Flood Programs
Two agencies
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)
Focused on reducing flood damage through implementation of
various protection works
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)
Focused on flood insurance as a means for partial recovery of
losses for property owners
Floodplains flooded by the 100-year flood are subject to
land-use management provisions (no development in the floodway,
properties must be elevated, etc.) and
flood insurance is mandatory for properties located within this zone
if communities are to remain eligible for certain disaster relief
programs.
Flood Damage Reduction
(a US Corps of Engineers Perspective)
Identify a plan that will reduce flood-damage and contribute to national
economic development (NED) and is consistent with environmental
protection
Benefits
Locational (B
L
): Increase in income from additional floodplain development
Intensification (B
I
): Increase in income from existing floodplain activities
Inundation reduction (B
IR
): Plan-related reduction in physical economic
damage, income loss and emergency costs
Costs: Total implementation costs + OM&R costs (C)

NB= B
L
+B
I
+B
IR
C
Inundation Reduction
Economic damages With and Without plan



Expected Annual Flood Damage
Risk of various magnitudes of flood damage each year
Weight damage by probability of event occurring

NB= B
L
+ B
I
+ B
IR
C
B
IR
= Damage
Without Plan
Damage
With Plan

NB= B
L
+ B
I
+ E D
W/O
| |
E D
W
| |
C
Flood-Damage Reduction Measures
Measures that
reduce damage by
reducing discharge
Measures that
reduce damage by
reducing stage
Measures that
reduce damage by
reducing existing
damage
susceptibility
Measures that
reduce damage by
reducing future
damage
susceptibility
Reservoir Channel
improvement
Levee or floodwall Land-use and
construction
regulation
Diversion Floodproofing Acquisition
Watershed
management
Relocation
Flood warning and
preparedness
planning
Effect of Flood Management Measures
Impacted Relationship
Stage -
Discharge
Stage -
Damage
Discharge -
Damage
Discharge -
Frequency
Damage -
Frequency
Reservoir
Levee
Channel mod.
Diversion
Flood Forecasting
Flood Proofing
Relocation
Flood warning
Land use control
Planning Study
Which measures, Where to locate, What size, How to operate
Formulate Evaluate Compare various alternative plans
Reconnaissance phase:
Find at least one plan that
Has positive Net Benefits
Satisfies environmental constraints
Is acceptable to local stakeholders
Estimate flood damages Without plan
Feasibility phase:
Refine and search the set of feasible plans
Detailed studies of channel capacity, structural configurations, etc.
Evaluate economic objective, environmental compliance, etc.
Design phase

q

H
stage-discharge
q

p
flow-probability

Damage

H
stage-damage
damage-probability

p

Damage
Computing Expected Annual Damage
Expected
Annual
Damage
Compute
Damage exceedance distribution
Probability that Flood Damage
(FD) is specified level (fd
T
)


Expected Annual Flood
Damage



p = Pr[FD> fd
T
] =
1
T

E[FD] = p(FD)dFD
0

}
Computation of Expected Annual Damage
1. Construct basic relationships for without-plan situation
Flow exceedance distribution
Stage-discharge curve
Stage-damage curve
Damage exceedance distribution
2. Compute the area beneath the damage-exceedance distribution
(expected annual flood damage) for each location and sum to obtain the
total expected annual flood damage
3. Repeat step (1) for each alternative flood plain management plan under
investigation
4. Repeat step (2)
5. Subtract results of step (4) (with plan) for each plan from without-plan
results. The differences will be expected annual flood damage reduction
for each plan
Expected Annual Flood Damage
Calculating Expected Annual Flood Damage
] [FD E
Flow exceedance distribution
Stage-discharge curve Stage-damage curve
Damage exceedance distribution
Benefits of E[FD] Reduction
Expected Annual Flood Damage reduction
Difference between E[FD] with and without protection
Calculating Expected Flood Damage Reduction Benefits
Floodplain Protected by a Levee
Probability of overtopping or geo-
structural failure
Need stage-discharge relationships in
the channel and on the floodplain
Flood stage in the floodplain
protected by a levee is a function
of
Flow in the stream or river channel,
Crosssectional area of the channel
between the levees on either side,
Channel slope and roughness,
Levee height.
If floodwaters enter the
floodplain
Water level in the floodplain depends
on the topological characteristics of
the floodplain
Levees
Probability of levee failure
function of
Levee height
Distribution of flows
Probability of geostructural
failure




Probability of levee failure
15% = probable non-failure
point, PNP
85% = probable failure point,
PFP


Stage
Probability of failure if water
surface reaches stage shown

0.0

0.15

0.85

1.0
Probable failure point (PFP)
Probable non-failure
point (PNP)
Levee

Stage

Damage
Without
Project
With
Project
Example
Urban basin.
Floods have caused significant
damage
Flow is measured at a USGS
gauge nearby
communities in the basin have
been flooded periodically
Increased development in the
upper portion of the basin
promises to worsen the flood
problem, as urbanization
increases the volume and peak
discharge
Inundated 130 businesses and
732 residences, second-story
flooding, eight lives lost.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0 200 400 600
D
a
m
a
g
e

(
$
m
i
l
l
i
o
n

1
9
7
8
)

Discharge (m3/sec)
Example
Flood problem analyzed to identify opportunities for damage reduction
Set of damage reduction alternatives formulated

Evaluate each alternative in terms of economic performance
Display the results so that alternatives can be compared
Identify and recommend a superior plan from amongst the alternatives
The standard for damage-reduction benefit computation is the without-
project condition. Expected annual damage should be computed
For the computation, discharge-frequency, stage-discharge, and stage-
damage relationships were developed following standard procedures
Discharge - Probability Function
The existing, without-project discharge-frequency relationship
was developed from the sample of historical annual maximum
discharge observed at the USGS gauge
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
D
i
s
c
h
a
r
g
e

(
m
3
/
s
)

Exceedence Probability
Exceedence
Probability
Discharge
(m3/s)
0.002 899
0.005 676
0.01 539
0.02 423
0.05 299
0.1 223
0.2 158
0.5 87
0.8 51
0.9 39
0.95 32
0.99 22.9
Stage - Discharge Function
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
1400.0
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00
D
i
s
c
h
a
r
g
e

(
m
3
/
s
)

Stage (m)
The present, without project stage-damage relationship at the
USGS gauge index point was developed from water-surface
profiles computed with a computer program
Discharge-Stage
Stage (m)
Discharge
(m3/s)
1.97 84.4
2.39 100.4
3.39 168.2
4.07 228.4
4.58 277.5
5.50 383.7
6.70 538.5
7.13 605.8
7.47 651.5
7.75 721.7
8.10 838.2
8.79 1030.8
8.99 1159.1
9.57 1297.1
Stage - Damage Function
0.0
1000.0
2000.0
3000.0
4000.0
5000.0
6000.0
7000.0
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00
D
a
m
a
g
e

(
$
1
,
0
0
0
)

Stage (m)
Developed with the following procedure:
Categorize structures in the basin
Define an average-case stage-damage relationships for categories
Add emergency costs
Stage-Damage
Stage (m)
Damage
($1,000)
3.35 0.0
4.27 25.7
4.57 88.6
5.18 339.3
5.49 525.1
6.10 1100.0
6.71 2150.6
8.23 5132.8
8.53 5654.2
9.14 6416.5
9.45 6592.2
Flood Damage Exceedance Frequency
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.2
D
a
m
a
g
e

(
$
1
0
0
0
)

Exceedence Frequency
Exceedence
Probability
Damage
($1,000)
0.002 5286
0.005 3830
0.01 2133
0.02 817
0.05 168
0.1 18.2
0.2 0
EAD Integration Procedure
Area between
each pair of
points is found
by Integration.
Damage ($)
Exceedance Probability
Area added as
last step in
integration
Area under
curve is
expected
annual damage
Last
exceedance
frequency
First
exceedance
value should be
at zero damage
Expected Annual Flood Damage
Trapezoid Rule:

E(D) = p
0
D
0
+ p
j
p
j1
( )
D
j
+ D
j1
( )
2
j=1
n

Integrating
Exceedence
Probability
Discharge
(m3/s) Stage (m)
Damage
($1,000)
Probability
Increment
Mean
Damage
for
increment
Weighted
Damage
0.002 5286 10,572
0.002 898.8 8.32 5286
0.003 4557.9 13,673.8
0.005 676.1 7.57 3830
0.005 2981.7 14,908.5
0.01 538.5 6.70 2133
0.01 1475.4 14,753.5
0.02 423.0 5.80 817
0.03 492.5 14,773.5
0.05 298.8 4.76 168
0.05 92.9 4,645.0
0.1 222.5 4.00 18.2
0.10 9.1 910.0
0.2 158.4 3.24 0
EAD 74,236
Uncertainty
In flood damage-reduction planning, uncertainties include
Future hydrologic events: streamflow and rainfall
choice of distribution and values of parameters
Simplified models of complex hydraulic phenomena
geometric data, misalignment of structure, material variability, and slope
and roughness factors
Relationship between depth and inundation damage
structure values and locations, how the public will respond to a flood
Structural and geotechnical performance when subjected to floods
Introducing Uncertainty
Assign probability density
functions to evaluation functions
At any location an orthogonal
slice would yield the PDF of
uncertainty
EAD and benefits determined in
the same way as before,
however, a Monte Carlo
sampling is used to sample from
the functions to produce
independent probability
damage functions that are
integrated to compute EAD
Monte Carlo sampling is
repeated (replicates) until stable
expected values are computed.
Darryl W. Davis, Risk Analysis in Flood Damage Reduction Studies The
Corps Experience, World Water Congress 2003 118, 306 (2003)

Você também pode gostar