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Financeira
Aula 5
Anlise de Cenrio e de Sensibilidade
Anselmo Negro
Introduo
Mensurao de risco
1. Anlise de Cenrio
2. Simulao
3. Anlise de Sensibilidade
Anlise de Cenrio
Anlise de Sensibilidade
Simulao
Simulao
Exemplo
Dados
Investimento = R$ 100 mil
Vida til = 4 anos
Imp. s/ Vendas = 10% RB
IR/CSSL = 34%
Quantidade = 6.000
Preo = R$ 80
Custo Var. Uni. = R$ 60
Custo Fixo = R$ 50 mil
Fluxo do Projeto
2011
(+) Receita Bruta
2012
480,000.00
Quantidade
2013
2014
2015
480,000.00
480,000.00
480,000.00
(48,000.00)
(48,000.00)
(48,000.00)
(330,000.00)
(330,000.00)
(330,000.00)
6,000
Preo
80.0
(48,000.00)
Alquota
10.0%
(330,000.00)
CVU
55.0
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(-) Depreciao
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(=) LAIR
27,000.00
27,000.00
27,000.00
27,000.00
(-) IR / CSSL
(9,180.00)
(9,180.00)
(9,180.00)
(9,180.00)
Alquota
34.0%
17,820.00
17,820.00
17,820.00
17,820.00
(+) Depreciao
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
42,820.00
42,820.00
42,820.00
42,820.00
42,820.00
42,820.00
42,820.00
42,820.00
(100,000.00)
(100,000.00)
42 .820 ,00
VPL 100 .000
10 .849 ,61
n
n 1 1 0, 20
4
42 .820 ,00
0 100 .000
TIR 25,63 % a.a.
n
n 1 1 TIR
Anlise de cenrios
Anlise de cenrios
E se ocorresse queda/aumento de
margens?
E se o volume de vendas ficar abaixo/acima
do esperado?
E se a taxa de juros e o risco pas
subir/cair?
Tabela de Limites
Caso
Base
Limite
Inferior
Limite
Superior
Quantidade
6.000
5.500
6.500
CVU
55
53
57
5%
4%
6%
Risco Pas
3%
2%
4%
Tabela de Cenrios
Pessimista
Otimista
Quantidade
5.500
6.500
CVU
57
53
6%
4%
Risco Pas
4%
2%
Pior Cenrio
2011
(+) Receita Bruta
2012
440,000.00
Quantidade
2013
2014
2015
440,000.00
440,000.00
440,000.00
(44,000.00)
(44,000.00)
(44,000.00)
(313,500.00)
(313,500.00)
(313,500.00)
5,500
Preo
80.0
(44,000.00)
Alquota
10.0%
(313,500.00)
CVU
57.0
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(-) Depreciao
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
7,500.00
7,500.00
7,500.00
7,500.00
(-) IR / CSSL
(2,550.00)
(2,550.00)
(2,550.00)
(2,550.00)
Alquota
34.0%
4,950.00
4,950.00
4,950.00
4,950.00
(+) Depreciao
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
29,950.00
29,950.00
29,950.00
29,950.00
29,950.00
29,950.00
29,950.00
29,950.00
(=) LAIR
(100,000.00)
(100,000.00)
29 .950 ,00
VPL 100 .000
R$23 .913 ,79
n
n 1 1 0, 21
4
29 .950 ,00
0 100 .000
TIR 7,64 %a.a.
n
n 1 1 TIR
Melhor Cenrio
2011
(+) Receita Bruta
2012
520,000.00
Quantidade
2013
2014
2015
520,000.00
520,000.00
520,000.00
(52,000.00)
(52,000.00)
(52,000.00)
(344,500.00)
(344,500.00)
(344,500.00)
6,500
Preo
80.0
(52,000.00)
Alquota
10.0%
(344,500.00)
CVU
53.0
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(-) Depreciao
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
48,500.00
48,500.00
48,500.00
48,500.00
(-) IR / CSSL
(16,490.00)
(16,490.00)
(16,490.00)
(16,490.00)
Alquota
34.0%
(=) LAIR
32,010.00
32,010.00
32,010.00
32,010.00
(+) Depreciao
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
57,010.00
57,010.00
57,010.00
57,010.00
57,010.00
57,010.00
57,010.00
57,010.00
(100,000.00)
(100,000.00)
57 .010 ,00
VPL 100 .000
R$50 .426 ,76
n
n 1 1 0,19
4
57 .010 ,00
0 100 .000
TIR 43,60 %a.a.
n
n 1 1 TIR
Resumo
Custo de
FCO (R$) Capital
(%)
VPL (R$)
TIR (%)
Cenrio
Base
42.820
20
10.849,61
25,63
Pior
Cenrio
29.950
21
-23.913,79
7,64
Melhor
Cenrio
57.010
19
50.426,76
43,60
Anlise de Sensibilidade
Preo = -1%
Preo = -1%
2011
2012
475,200.00
Quantidade
2013
2014
2015
475,200.00
475,200.00
475,200.00
(47,520.00)
(47,520.00)
(47,520.00)
6,000
Preo
79.2
(47,520.00)
Alquota
10.0%
CVU
55.0
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(-) Depreciao
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(=) LAIR
22,680.00
22,680.00
22,680.00
22,680.00
(-) IR / CSSL
(7,711.20)
(7,711.20)
(7,711.20)
(7,711.20)
Alquota
34.0%
14,968.80
14,968.80
14,968.80
14,968.80
(+) Depreciao
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
39,968.80
39,968.80
39,968.80
39,968.80
39,968.80
39,968.80
39,968.80
39,968.80
(100,000.00)
(100,000.00)
VPL (R$)
TIR
3,468.61
21.82% a.a.
Preo = +1%
Preo = +1%
2011
2012
484,800.00
Quantidade
2013
2014
2015
484,800.00
484,800.00
484,800.00
(48,480.00)
(48,480.00)
(48,480.00)
(330,000.00)
(330,000.00)
(330,000.00)
6,000
Preo
80.8
(48,480.00)
Alquota
10.0%
(330,000.00)
CVU
55.0
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(-) Depreciao
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(=) LAIR
(-) IR / CSSL
Alquota
31,320.00
31,320.00
31,320.00
31,320.00
(10,648.80)
(10,648.80)
(10,648.80)
(10,648.80)
34.0%
20,671.20
20,671.20
20,671.20
20,671.20
(+) Depreciao
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
45,671.20
45,671.20
45,671.20
45,671.20
45,671.20
45,671.20
45,671.20
45,671.20
(100,000.00)
(100,000.00)
VPL (R$)
TIR
18,230.61
29.36% a.a.
Quantidade = -1%
Quantidade = -1%
2011
2012
475,200.00
Quantidade
2013
2014
2015
475,200.00
475,200.00
475,200.00
(47,520.00)
(47,520.00)
(47,520.00)
(326,700.00)
(326,700.00)
(326,700.00)
5,940
Preo
80.0
(47,520.00)
Alquota
10.0%
(326,700.00)
CVU
55.0
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(-) Depreciao
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(=) LAIR
25,980.00
25,980.00
25,980.00
25,980.00
(-) IR / CSSL
(8,833.20)
(8,833.20)
(8,833.20)
(8,833.20)
Alquota
34.0%
17,146.80
17,146.80
17,146.80
17,146.80
(+) Depreciao
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
42,146.80
42,146.80
42,146.80
42,146.80
42,146.80
42,146.80
42,146.80
42,146.80
(100,000.00)
(100,000.00)
VPL (R$)
TIR
9,106.88
24.74% a.a.
Quantidade = +1%
Quantidade = +1%
2011
2012
484,800.00
Quantidade
2013
2014
2015
484,800.00
484,800.00
484,800.00
(48,480.00)
(48,480.00)
(48,480.00)
(333,300.00)
(333,300.00)
(333,300.00)
6,060
Preo
80.0
(48,480.00)
Alquota
10.0%
(333,300.00)
CVU
55.0
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(-) Depreciao
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(=) LAIR
28,020.00
28,020.00
28,020.00
28,020.00
(-) IR / CSSL
(9,526.80)
(9,526.80)
(9,526.80)
(9,526.80)
Alquota
34.0%
18,493.20
18,493.20
18,493.20
18,493.20
(+) Depreciao
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
43,493.20
43,493.20
43,493.20
43,493.20
43,493.20
43,493.20
43,493.20
43,493.20
(100,000.00)
(100,000.00)
VPL (R$)
TIR
12,592.35
26.52% a.a.
2011
2012
480,000.00
Quantidade
2013
2014
2015
480,000.00
480,000.00
480,000.00
(48,000.00)
(48,000.00)
(48,000.00)
(326,700.00)
(326,700.00)
(326,700.00)
6,000
Preo
80.0
(48,000.00)
Alquota
10.0%
(326,700.00)
CVU
54.45
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(-) Depreciao
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(=) LAIR
(-) IR / CSSL
Alquota
30,300.00
30,300.00
30,300.00
30,300.00
(10,302.00)
(10,302.00)
(10,302.00)
(10,302.00)
34.0%
19,998.00
19,998.00
19,998.00
19,998.00
(+) Depreciao
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
44,998.00
44,998.00
44,998.00
44,998.00
44,998.00
44,998.00
44,998.00
44,998.00
(100,000.00)
(100,000.00)
VPL (R$)
TIR
16,487.88
28.49% a.a.
2011
2012
480,000.00
Quantidade
2013
2014
2015
480,000.00
480,000.00
480,000.00
(48,000.00)
(48,000.00)
(48,000.00)
(333,300.00)
(333,300.00)
(333,300.00)
6,000
Preo
80.0
(48,000.00)
Alquota
10.0%
(333,300.00)
CVU
55.55
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(-) Depreciao
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(=) LAIR
23,700.00
23,700.00
23,700.00
23,700.00
(-) IR / CSSL
(8,058.00)
(8,058.00)
(8,058.00)
(8,058.00)
Alquota
34.0%
15,642.00
15,642.00
15,642.00
15,642.00
(+) Depreciao
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
40,642.00
40,642.00
40,642.00
40,642.00
40,642.00
40,642.00
40,642.00
40,642.00
(100,000.00)
(100,000.00)
VPL (R$)
TIR
5,211.35
22.73% a.a.
2011
2012
480,000.00
Quantidade
2013
2014
2015
480,000.00
480,000.00
480,000.00
(48,000.00)
(48,000.00)
(48,000.00)
(330,000.00)
(330,000.00)
(330,000.00)
6,000
Preo
80.0
(48,000.00)
Alquota
10.0%
(330,000.00)
CVU
55.0
(49,500.00)
(49,500.00)
(49,500.00)
(49,500.00)
(-) Depreciao
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(=) LAIR
27,500.00
27,500.00
27,500.00
27,500.00
(-) IR / CSSL
(9,350.00)
(9,350.00)
(9,350.00)
(9,350.00)
Alquota
34.0%
18,150.00
18,150.00
18,150.00
18,150.00
(+) Depreciao
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
43,150.00
43,150.00
43,150.00
43,150.00
43,150.00
43,150.00
43,150.00
43,150.00
(100,000.00)
(100,000.00)
VPL (R$)
TIR
11,703.90
26.07% a.a.
2011
2012
480,000.00
Quantidade
2013
2014
2015
480,000.00
480,000.00
480,000.00
(48,000.00)
(48,000.00)
(48,000.00)
(330,000.00)
(330,000.00)
(330,000.00)
6,000
Preo
80.0
(48,000.00)
Alquota
10.0%
(330,000.00)
CVU
55.0
(50,500.00)
(50,500.00)
(50,500.00)
(50,500.00)
(-) Depreciao
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(=) LAIR
26,500.00
26,500.00
26,500.00
26,500.00
(-) IR / CSSL
(9,010.00)
(9,010.00)
(9,010.00)
(9,010.00)
Alquota
34.0%
17,490.00
17,490.00
17,490.00
17,490.00
(+) Depreciao
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
42,490.00
42,490.00
42,490.00
42,490.00
42,490.00
42,490.00
42,490.00
42,490.00
(100,000.00)
(100,000.00)
VPL (R$)
TIR
9,995.33
25.19% a.a.
2011
2012
480,000.00
Quantidade
2013
2014
2015
480,000.00
480,000.00
480,000.00
(48,000.00)
(48,000.00)
(48,000.00)
(330,000.00)
(330,000.00)
(330,000.00)
6,000
Preo
80.0
(48,000.00)
Alquota
10.0%
(330,000.00)
CVU
55.0
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(-) Depreciao
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(=) LAIR
27,000.00
27,000.00
27,000.00
27,000.00
(-) IR / CSSL
(9,180.00)
(9,180.00)
(9,180.00)
(9,180.00)
Alquota
34.0%
17,820.00
17,820.00
17,820.00
17,820.00
(+) Depreciao
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
42,820.00
42,820.00
42,820.00
42,820.00
42,820.00
42,820.00
42,820.00
42,820.00
(100,000.00)
(100,000.00)
VPL (R$)
TIR
12,984.23
25.63% a.a.
2011
2012
480,000.00
Quantidade
2013
2014
2015
480,000.00
480,000.00
480,000.00
(48,000.00)
(48,000.00)
(48,000.00)
(330,000.00)
(330,000.00)
(330,000.00)
6,000
Preo
80.0
(48,000.00)
Alquota
10.0%
(330,000.00)
CVU
55.0
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(50,000.00)
(-) Depreciao
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(25,000.00)
(=) LAIR
27,000.00
27,000.00
27,000.00
27,000.00
(-) IR / CSSL
(9,180.00)
(9,180.00)
(9,180.00)
(9,180.00)
Alquota
34.0%
17,820.00
17,820.00
17,820.00
17,820.00
(+) Depreciao
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
25,000.00
42,820.00
42,820.00
42,820.00
42,820.00
42,820.00
42,820.00
42,820.00
42,820.00
(100,000.00)
(100,000.00)
VPL (R$)
TIR
8,781.69
25.63% a.a.
-1%
0%
+1%
Preo
3,468.61
10,849.61
18,230.61
Quantidade
9,106.88
10,849.61
12,592.35
16,487.88
10,849.61
5,211.35
Custo Fixo
11,703.90
10,849.61
9,995.33
12,984.23
10,849.61
8,781.69
-1%
0%
+1%
Preo
-68.0%
0.0%
68.0%
Quantidade
-16.1%
0.0%
16.1%
52.0%
0.0%
-52.0%
Custo Fixo
7.9%
0.0%
-7.9%
Taxa de Juros
19.7%
0.0%
-19.1%
Varivel
VPL (R$)
16,000
12,000
8,000
4,000
0
-1%
+1%
VARIAO
Preo
Custo Varivel Unitrio
Taxa de Juros EUA
Quantidade
Custo Fixo
Grfico Tornado
Preo
-68.0%
Custo Varivel
Unitrio
-52.0%
52.0%
-19.1%
Taxa de Juros
19.7%
-16.1%
Quantidade
16.1%
-7.9%
Custo Fixo
-75%
68.0%
-50%
-25%
7.9%
0%
25%
50%
75%