PRSENTED BY:TINA CHITLANGE SUDHA SINGH SHAKIR ALI SHARAD PANDE SUMEET JAROLIYA SURAJ CHANNAWAR

Simulation is one of the oldest operation research technique know the man-that is representation of the real world by number and other symbols that can be manipulated. In modern simulation. It is the availability of computers which make it possible for us to deal with an extraordinarily large quantity that can be incorporated into model. The simulation is used in almost all fields , restricted only by our imagination and our ability to translate such imagination into a set of computer directives.

A simulation of a system or an organism is the operation of a model or simulation which is a representation of the system or organism. The model is enable to manipulation which would be impossible too expensive or unpractical to perform on the entity it portrays. The operation of the model can be studied and for it , properties concerning the behavior of the actual system can be inferred.

ADVANTAGES OF SIMULATION 1. This approach is suitable to analysis large and complex real-life problem that cannot be solved by the usual quantitative method.

2. It is useful for sensitivity analysis of complex system. In other words , it the decision-maker study the interactive system variables , and the effect of changes that take place in these variable on the system performance in order to determine the desired result.,

3. Simulation can be used as a pre-service test to try out new policies and decision rules for operating a system before running the risk of experimentation in the real system. 4. It is the remaining tool when all other techniques become intractable or fail. 5. Simulation experiment are done on the model, not on the system itself. This also allows to the inclusion of additional information during analysis that most quantitative models do not permit. In other words, simulation can be used to experiment on a model of a real situation, without incurring the cost of operating on the system.

1. Sometimes simulation models are expensive and take a long time to develop. for ex- A corporate planning model may take a long time to develop and may also prove to be expensive.
2. It is trial and error approach that produces different solutions in repeated runs. This means if does not generate optimal solution to problem.

3. Each application of simulation is ad hoc to a great extent.

4. The simulation model does not produce answers by itself. The user has to provide all the constraints for the solution that he wants to examine.

Ex.1:- A bakery keeps stock of a popular brand of cake. Previous experience shows the daily demand pattern for the item with associated probabilities, as given below:Daily demand(no): 0 10 20 30 40 50 Probability:- 0.01 0.20 0.15 0.50 0.12 0.02 Use the following sequence of random number to simulate the demand for next 10 days. Random no:- 25, 39, 65, 76, 12, 05, 73, 89, 19, 49. Also estimate the daily demand for the cakes on the basis of the simulated data.

Sol:- using the daily demand distribution ,we obtain a probability distribution as shown
Daily Demand Probability Cumulative Probability
0.01 0.21 0.36 0.86 0.98 1.00

Random number Interval

00 01-20 21-35 36-85 86-97 98-99

0 10 20 30 40 50

0.01 0.20 0.15 0.50 0.12 0.02

Conduct the simulation experiment for demand by taking a sample of 10 random numbers from a table of random numbers, which represent the sequence of 10 samples. Each random sample number here is a sample of demand. the simulation calculations for a period of 10 days are given.

Days 1 2

Random no 40 19

Demand 30 10

3
4 5 6

87
83 73 84

40
30 30 30

7
8 9 10

29
09 02 20

20
10 10 10

Because 0.36<o.40<0.85 Because0.01<0.1 9<0.20.and also so on

total

220

Expected demand=220/10=22 units per day

There is a wide range of application of computer-based simulation models because it is an approach rather than an application of specific techniques. The major use of computer-based Monte Carlo simulation model has been in solving complex queuing problems.
A good deal of work has been done in the development of inventory simulation models such as determination of optimal reorder level and lot size, under condition of probabilistic demand and lead time, optimal review period and ordering policy for continuous review inventory models.

A number of network simulation models have also been developed. For e.g.:- a randomly selected activity times the critical path can be evaluated. Repeating this process many times, the probability distribution of project completion time can be obtained. The probability that each given activity is on the critical path can also obtained.

A variety of other problems that can be solved by simulation include:1.military studies of logistics, support planning and weapon system effectiveness.
2. Studies of individual and group behavior. 3.Financialstudies involving risky investment.

4.Testing of decision rules for hospital admission and operating policies.