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Terrorism
The unlawful use or threatened use of force or violence to intimidate or coerce societies or governments, often for ideological or political reasons. The unlawful use of force or violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives (FBI) Potentially politically loaded term One persons terrorist is anothers freedom fighter Terrorism most clearly defined by two characteristics Combatants do not represent a state Combatants deliberately target civilians Terrorism & terrorists violate intl rules of war
Terrorism as Strategy
Effects of Terror
Economy Each and every individual Irrational in nature Decreases any feeling of security Drains resources Places whole country on alert:
?overreaction ?False sense of security or irrelevant
Terrorism Is Theatre
As stated by Brian Jenkins - terrorism expert - terrorist acts are often deliberately spectacular, designed to rattle and influence a wide audience, beyond the victims of the violence itself.
Censorship Debates
Three choices when it comes to freedom of the press and terrorism To assume a laissez-faire, or hands-off, attitude Censorship Self-regulation
Quantity
(estimate) Dozens of mortars, thousands of mortar bombs
Range
3000 m 5700 m 8000 m 43 km 75 km 8.3 km Long-range rocket: 20.4 km Short-range rocket: 11 km
Target
Israeli towns and cities
Several dozen
Recoilless guns
Artillery Guns Antitank Missiles
122 mm 130 mm 155 mm SAGGER Millan Fagot Tow
Dozens
1300 m (est.)
military
Tanks
Antiaircraft
Aircraft
Ecoterrorism in the US
Earth Liberation Front (ELF) ELF migrated from Europe to the United States The alliance has been responsible for more than six hundred criminal acts since 1996 Its tactics include sabotage, tree spiking, property damage, intimidation, and arson
Why Terrorism???
Terrorism and guerrilla warfare
Ability to compete with superpowers Legitimate form of warfare? Applicability of Laws of war (legitimate nations at a disadvantage?) Terrorists have advantage of surprise and initiative What methods may be used to combat terrorist/guerrilla attacks? Advantages and disadvantages of each (loss of innocent life, collateral damage, etc.)
Crazies
Join terrorist groups for thrills of lifestyle
Crusaders
People who believe deeply in a cause
Suicide Terrorism
The use of suicide terrorism as a tactic has changed the nature of terrorism and the war in Iraq. In most cases, the use of suicide terrorism has tended to improve the success of terrorists and frustrated their more capable, better-resourced enemies (i.e., US, EU) This analysis is based on Robert Papes article in the Aug. 2003 American Political Science Review (vol. 97, no. 3, 343-361)
Suicide Terrorism
Suicide terrorism was seldom used but not unknown before 1980 The 1983 attack on the US Marine barracks in Lebanon was a spectacular early use of this tactic Since that time its use has risen sharply
Suicide Terrorism
Suicide Attacks Against Israel
2000 2001 2002 2003 2002 2005 2006 4 35 60 26 15 5 2
3. Suicide terrorism has been rising for the past 25 years because it is often partially successful
-- Palestinian management/control: West Bank, Gaza -- Regional autonomy negotiations for Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka -- Limited toleration for Kurdish minority in Turkey
5. The most promising tactic for reducing suicide terrorism is by reducing the terrorists confidence in further success
-- Border control, increased internal security -- Military action alone is unlikely to create this effect
Types of Terrorism
Terrorists have a choice of tactics to use depending on the desire effect Demonstrative Terrorism
Used mainly to gain publicity, recruit activists May announce their action in advance (bomb threat)
Destructive Terrorism
More aggressive, seeks to coerce enemies Balance between effect of act and the potential to alienate potential sympathizers
Suicide Terrorism
Most aggressive May alienate the terrorists own community
Types of Terrorism
Suicide terrorism is an aspect of asymmetrical warfare, where the terrorist organization is weaker than their enemy Their actions are a punishment for not acceding to previous demands Fear is intensified by the credible threat of additional future attacks
Terrorists Goals
US/France out of Lebanon Israel out of Lebanon Israel out of Palestine
Target Behavior
Complete Withdrawal Complete withdrawal Complete withdrawal from Gaza, partial withdrawal from West Bank
1996-2003
20002003-
Al Qaeda
Chechen Rebels Al Qaeda, various
Complete withdrawal
TBD TBD
Bernard Lewis: Islam an ancient rival against our Judeo-Christian heritage. Traces the rivalry back to the time of the Islamic invasion of Spain, the western Crusades, the Ottoman invasion of eastern and central Europe, and the European defeat of the Ottomans after WW1. The Muslim has suffered succesive stages of defeat.It was too much to endure, and the outbreak of rage against these alien, infidel and incomprehensible forces that subverted his dominance.was inevitable.
Bernard Lewis ideas have influenced important members of the Bush administration, including vice president Cheney Their assumptions: - Islamic societies are fundamentally anti democratic and repressive. - Islamists are resentful and hate the freedom and liberty they see in the US, and want to destroy it. - If Islam and the west are to live together, Islamic countries need to be democratized and modernised: this is the project in Iraq.
Huntingtons thesis
The fundamental source of conflict..will not be primarily ideological or economic. The great divisions among humankind will be cultural. The fault lines between civilizations will be the battle lines of the future. He divides the world into seven or eight major civilizations: Western, Confucian, Japanese, Islamic, Hindu, Slavic-Orthodox, Latin American. Huntington saw the main source of conflict in the world as being between western and Islamic civilization
Confuses the thinking of a small Islamic fundamentalist fringe, with the majority of Muslims Does not distinguish between Arab Muslims and non Arab Muslims Are civilizations that distinct and are they based on religion?
Muslims look forward to death the way Americans look forward to life. Osama bin Laden (Islamic Terrorist)
Terms
This briefing refers to ISLAM and ISLAMIC to refer generally to the broad range of religious, cultural and socio-economic values and assumptions that are shared among the diverse adherents to the Islamic faith. This briefing refers to ISLAMISTS (Islamic Fundamentalists, Fundamentalists, Extremists) ) and requires that these terms be understood to refer to those Islamic extremists who have, by their words and actions, defined themselves as the enemies of all that is NOT in agreement with their view and are currently executing a violent campaign against those who do not share their agenda primarily the U.S. This term does NOT refer to all Muslims nor Muslims of any particular denomination or sect of the broader religion of Islam. It refers ONLY to those Muslim extremists who are engaged in using violent means to expand the influence of their particular view of Islam. Some of these religious, and sociopolitical views are shared among most or even all Muslims. However, those views which have motivated Islamist, Fundamentalist Extremists to violent action are generally shared ONLY by those groups. JIHAD is an Arabic term that is used for any struggle INCLUDING warfare. It is frequently interpreted in a religious context as Holy War but CAN mean struggle as in a struggle to overcome a personal limitation or a struggle to understand a new point of view. JIHADI is one who struggles or fights. In the context of a religiously inspired Holy War, a Jihadi is a Holy Warrior.
Islam Today????
Islam (modernists, traditionalists and orthodox 80-85%?) Ancient religion of 1.5 billion people Diversity of beliefs, practices, and politics Islamism (salafi Islam, fundamentalism) (15-20%?) Islam must have political power and a state Response to European colonialism Modernism and the turn to Islam But no unanimity about democracy Jihadism (salafiyya jihadiyya) (<1%?) Extremist version of Islamism No gradual implementation or political process Only violence can recreate an idealized Islamic state called the Caliphate
Historical Perspective I
Islam spread very quickly by conversion and by developing empire. Mohammed was at once a prophet, religious leader, military leader, and government head. Crusades were a direct attack on this empire that included many lands outside of the Middle East. Focus is on Christian atrocities.
Historical Perspective II
Place of Christians and Jews in the early Islamic State and Mohammed's last wishes. Holy Land is for Muslims only: Arabia, Medina, Mecca With the collapse of the Ottoman Empire the Caliphate (Islamic Leader) ended (1924).
Al Qaeda Manual II
Colonialism and its followers, the apostate rulers, then started to openly erect crusader centers, societies, and organizations like Masonic Lodges, Lions and Rotary clubs, and foreign schools. They aimed at producing a wasted generation that pursued everything that is western and produced rulers, ministers, leaders, physicians, engineers, businessmen, politicians, journalists, and information specialists.
Worldview
Jewish Conspiracy
Banking Influence/Pulling the strings
US World Position
Leader and therefore responsible regardless of proof
Support of Israel
The Final Proof
(How many Arab countries have accepted the right of Israel to exist at all?)
Globalization
Forcing a secular western culture on a traditional Islamic culture Extolling: music, morals, sex, values and materialism Importing to them low paying jobs.
Understanding Islam Islam Role of religion for the believer Christian West
The defining An expression of doctrine regulating private personal all aspects of belief. personal behavior, family, political and economic life.
Understanding Islam
Islam View of The world consists government of one true faith divided into nations (Lewis, xx). There is no meaningful difference between political and religious communities. Christian West Dualism -- The world is split into two spheres, political (secular) and religious. Since the Enlightenment: religion should not be too prominent in politics.
Christian West
The Bible is the work of numerous men over a considerable time. There is a religious caste (priests) who either mediate for believers or perform certain holy rites. The Church is an institution that preserves the dogma of the faith.
Christian West
Society is a broad community of people in voluntary association who pursue common interests, preserve common ways of life and belief. Religion is only one of many factors that bind people together; numerous social substructures also support and nourish civic life.
Understanding Islam
Islam
View of the individual
The individual is bound by a strict duty to observe religious law, participate in the great evangelistic work of the faith, and defend the honor of Muhammad, the Muslim faith and all those who profess them.
Christian West
Individuals may choose to bind themselves to a religious faith, or to no religion at all. Individuals should respect each others rights.
most Muslim countries are still profoundly Muslim in a way and in a sense that most Christian countries are no longer Christian. (Lewis, 16)
What is Islamism?
Literalism of Quran to all of society Islamic world decline due to loss of religious observance and caliphate Moral and religious law enforcement
Islamic state
Western culture breeds materialism, atheism, selfishness, and decadence Separate from the west State of Israel is illegitimate and should be removed All Muslims should enroll in jihad to achieve these goals. Glorify martyrdom
Madrassas/Wahhabism
Wahhabi: 1750s reformer to an earlier purer Islam. Embraced and propagated by Saudi Arabia today in their education system home and abroad. Saudi Arabia Academy in Alexandria, VA. Unity of Religion, Government, Military Examples: Pakistan, Egypt, Sudan
Strong Fundamentalist Movements
Means Struggle. Jihad of the heart/soul is an inner struggle of good against evil in the mind. Jihad by the tongue is a struggle of good against evil waged by writing and speech. Jihad by the pen and knowledge is a struggle for good against evil through scholarly study of Islam. Jihad by the hand refers to a struggle of good against evil waged by actions or with one's wealth, such as going on the Hajj pilgrimage (seen as the best jihad for women), taking care of elderly parents, or political activity for furthering the cause of Islam. Jihad by the sword refers to qital fi sabilillah (armed fighting in the way of God, or holy war), the most common usage by Salafi Muslims and offshoots of the Muslim Brotherhood. 5 Kinds of Jihad, but we mostly only hear about the last!
Jihad
America departs Iraq prior to sufficient Iraqi capacity to provide security. Insurgents step up attacks against the government and make religious claims for regime change. Extremists overthrow the democratic government of Iraq and replace it with a Taliban-like regime. United Nations issues a resolution, but does not commit to action. United States does not re-enter the conflict
94
Extremists now have an Emirate in Iraq that serves as a base of operations from which they can revive the Caliphate.
Extremists export their message and terrorist acts throughout the middle east. Violence and extremist ideology undermine governments of Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Egypt. Moderate governments collapse; Taliban-like regimes take their place. Baghdad becomes the capital of the Caliphate.
95
The revived Caliphate now turns its attention to the destruction of Israel
Attacks against Israel intensify. United Nations issues resolution to stand down. Caliphate gains support within the Muslim world Caliphate attacks Israel
96
This would require the defeat of the U. S.; how could that happen?
Iraq has become the focus of the enemys effort. If they win in Iraq, they have a base from which to expand their terror
What is Al-Qaeda?
Osama bin Laden led organization of radical Islamic terrorists
Wahhabi sect of Islam Founded during Afghan resistance to USSR Funded in part by the US
US support of Saudis and US troops in Saudi Arabia in Gulf War turned him against US
Attacked US Embassies, USS Cole, 9/11 and more
The ruling to kill the Americans and their allies -- civilians and military -- is an individual duty for every Muslim who can do it in any country in which it is possible to do it, in order to liberate the al-Aqsa Mosque and the holy mosque [Mecca] from their grip, and in order for their armies to move out of all the lands of Islam, defeated and unable to threaten any Muslim. World Islamic Front Statement 23 Feb 1998
Jihad Against Jews and Crusaders
This is in accordance with the words of Almighty Allah, "and fight the pagans all together as they fight you all together," and "fight them until there is no more tumult or oppression, and there prevail justice and faith in Allah."
World Islamic Front Statement 23 Feb 1998 Jihad Against Jews and Crusaders
Ramzi Yousef
After being captured in Pakistan, he was flown into Stewart Airport in Newburgh, New York, and then transferred to an FBI helicopter for the trip to the Metropolitan Correctional Center next to Federal Plaza in Lower Manhattan. Two huge guys carried him off the plane, shackled and blindfolded After we got airborne and were flying down the Hudson River, one of the SWAT guys asks me, Can we take off his blindfold? It took Yousef a minute to focus his eyes. Ironically, the helicopter was alongside the World Trade Center. The SWAT guy gives him a nudge and says, You see, its still standing. And Yousef says, It wouldnt be if we had more money. (The Looming Tower, pg. 357. Emphasis Added)
Embassy Bombings
Rationale: Response to a call for Jihad on the U.S. Result: 12 people dead, 224 injured Osama bin Laden became a recognized name and hit the FBIs Top Ten Most Wanted Men
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Shows disinterest in their usual daily activities and a sense of foreboding about the future
Hyper arousal (difficulty in falling or staying asleep, outbursts of anger, hyper vigilance, an inability to concentrate, or exaggerated startle responses) May lead to significant impairment in social, occupational or other important areas of the individuals life
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Common Themes in the Research on 9/11 Psychological Impact Living closer to the attack scene, direct personal loss, and children were more likely to exhibit symptoms of PTSD Sadness was the most frequent reaction among New Yorkers, followed by anxiety and fear Almost 20% of Americans across the country reported symptoms of distress constant news coverage, replays of video footage showing the second plane hitting the World Trade Center, helped all Americans feel closer to the event
Americans did not withdraw from others Stress and uncertainty produces social behaviors: people seek out others, perhaps to enhance social support, or to help to affirm ones cultural view of the world and the threat (Brandon & Silke) Increased participation in religious services, memorials, vigils
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Aviation Sector
planes grounded for a week or more 20% drop in passengers 100,000 jobs lost; several airlines went bankrupt
Insurance Sector
loss of life and property estimated at $40-$50 billion
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Special financing incentives offered by the automobile companies led to record motor vehicle sales for October 2001
Securities market was only closed for four days, opening again after the telecommunications network in lower Manhattan became operational. Stock market re-opened on September 17th; within 19 trading days, the S&P 500 index had bounced back to its pre-September 11th level
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Bottom Line
9/11 events inflicted severe and immediate physical impacts to all businesses, government offices, and other organizations located in and around the WTC complex. This event involved dead, injured, missing, physically displaced and traumatized employees, losses of data, information, and institutional knowledge, and an unprecedented uncertainty in market behavior
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Pearl Harbor and 9-11: Two Different Worlds September 11, 2001
The 9-11 attacks were designed for drama. They were a tragedy performed on a subnational level, with the purpose of murdering thousands of people to create an aura of fear The goal of the September 11 terrorists was not one of conventional military strategy. Its purpose was to create so much feat that Western institutions would change their behavior The terrorists of September 11 were attacking globalization while America was defending state power
Three days before national elections, 10 bombs were detonated on crowded commuter trains during rush hour. Three were deactivated by security forces and one was found unexploded. Evidence quickly surfaced that jihadist terrorists with possible ties to the al Qaeda network were responsible for the attack that killed 191 people.
Madrid
Why?
1. 2. 3.
3. US Support of Israel
Third, if the Americans' aims behind these wars are religious and economic, the aim is also to serve the Jews' petty state and divert attention from its occupation of Jerusalem and murder of Muslims there. The best proof of this is their eagerness to destroy Iraq, the strongest neighboring Arab state, and their endeavor to fragment all the states of the region such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Sudan into paper statelets and through their disunion and weakness to guarantee Israel's survival and the continuation of the brutal crusade occupation of the Peninsula. -1998 Fatwa, February 23, 1998
Among them was Osama Bin Laden, the son of a wealthy construction industry businessman. Bin Laden, born in 1957, was the 17th of his fathers 57 children. He studied business administration and then Islamic studies at King Abdul Aziz University in Jeddah.
Bin Ladens father was one of many who provided funds for the Afghan mujahideen, and Bin Laden began visiting the area in 1980. By 1982, he settled down in Peshawar, Pakistan, the main centre for the Afghan mujahideen. He brought in engineers from his company, and built roads and other buildings for the fighters
I settled in Pakistan in the Afghan border region. There I received volunteers who came from the Saudi kingdom and all over the Arab and Muslim countries. I set up my first camp where these volunteers were trained by American and Pakistani officers. The weapons were supplied by the Americans, the money by the Saudis. Osama bin Laden in an interview to AFP, 27 August 1998
1989, Bin Laden forms his own group, known as Al Qaeda, or the base. Using his own money,as well as money from Saudi Arabia, the organisation grows, and attracts Arab militants In 1990, after the Soviet withdrawal, Bin Laden returns to Saudi Arabia and works in the family business. He also sets up a welfare organisation for Arab veterans of the Afghan war. Most importantly, OBL returned home with an address book containing the names of everybody who was anybody in Islamic activism and guerrilla warfare in his pocket. (TOEE, 117.)
In 1991, after Iraqs invasion of Kuwait Bin Laden wanted the Saudi royal family to create a force of Afghan war veterans to fight Saddam. Instead, the Saudis allowed US forces to be based in Saudi Arabia Bin Laden was furious about US troops would be based so closed to the sacred sites of Mecca and Medina. He criticized the Saudi royal family for allowing non Muslims to be based in the country. His view is widely accepted in the Arab world. Never has Islam suffered a greater disaster than this invasion. OBL The Saudi royal family revokes Bin Ladens citizenship
Personal Responsibility- He truly feels he is doing his job by waging Jihad against America. Piety- OBL is a devout Muslim. Gave up a life of riches to live with commoners and wage jihad against us. Professionalism- Businesslike in running Al Qaeda. His looks make us think he is an uneducated, anti-modern, crazy man, when this is the exact opposite. Courageous- Wounded at least twice fighting in Afghanistan
Many throughout the world, not just Muslims, respect OBL because he has not backed down. He has become one of the great warriors in the history of Islam. Wherever Muslims are in trouble, it seems, Usama Bin Laden will be there, slaying enemies, real or perceived. A modern nightmare really- a big screen villain, a free-lancer with the resources of a state, but without all the nasty obligations. (John Miller as quoted in TOEE, 189.)
The West has pretty much decided that bin Laden is a serious threat only because he is a trigger-happy nut, psychopath, or violence prone youngster who never grew up. TOEE, p. 300
Most important, his words leave no room to doubt that Americans are being attacked for what they do in the Islamic world, not for how they think, live or govern themselves.Scheuer, TOEE, pg. x. The focused and lethal threat(comes) from their plausible perception that the things they love and value- God, Islam, their brethren, and Muslim lands are being attacked by America. Scheuer, IH, 9.
If he had the wherewithal to kill Americans and attack U.S. targets he would do so, but he doesnt..Hes serious about wanting to kill Americans, but as long as hes in Afghanistan, as long as he doesnt have access to a cell phone,. His ability to plan and conduct terrorist operations is extremely limited. Anonymous US official, 1999. He is responsible for attacks on US interests all over the world.
Self Defense
OBL sees Islam and the Muslim world are being attacked by a more modern, powerful, and predatory version of the medieval Catholic Crusaders (Scheuer, 54) Therefore it is every Muslims duty to fight to defend their religion and culture. (Total War) According to OBL it is the duty of every Muslim to kill Americans and destroy or steal their property and money. (Scheuer, 60) Familiar???????
Inspiration
Bin laden has continually stated that he is not a worldwide Islamic leader. His duty, and Al-Qaedas is to support anyone who carries out military action against the Americans. We seek to instigate the nation (Muslims) to get up and liberate its land, fight for the sake of God, and to make Islamic law the highest law, and the word of God the highest word of all.- OBL If the instigation for jihad against the Jews and Americans in order to liberate Al-Asqa mosque, and the Holy Kaaba, is considered a crime, then let history witness that I am a criminal. OBL It is our duty to lead people to the light OBL
Alls Fair!
Bin Laden is looking for a chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear weapon (CBRN). I would say that acquiring (CBRN) weapons for the defense of Muslims is a religious duty. OBL Bin Laden is not interested in using a CBRN weapon to terrorize his foes; he is seeking a first strike capability. (Scheuer, 72.) Killing Muslim civilians is an unfortunate, but acceptable effect of using a CBRN against the Crusaders. Killing them with a single bullet, a stab, or device made up of a popular mix of explosives or hitting them with an iron rod is not impossible. Burning down their property with Molotov cocktails is not difficult. With the available mean, small groups could prove to be a frightening horror for the Americans and the Jews.Ayamen Zawahiri Osama bin Laden sees heroin as a powerful new weapon in his war against the West that is capable of wreaking social havoc while generating huge profits. Washington Times, 1998. OBL sees our dropping of atomic weapons on Hiroshima and Nagasaki as examples of Americas disregard for human life. (Scheuer, 49.) Did the U.S. forget.. what it did to the residents of Hiroshima and Nagasaki?- OBL
education in explosives and detonators: how to assemble bombs (e.g., TNT, C4), mines and grenades, pressure and trip wire booby traps, and the basic knowledge of electrical engineering how to mount rocket launchers in the beds of pickup trucks how and where to launder money
sniper rifle skills; how to fine-tune a rifle sight at short range to ensure accuracy at longer distances
how to direct weapon fire at targets on the ground and in the air training in four-man unit deployments and formationsincluding wedges, columns, echelons and linestechniques similar to those used by U.S. Marines and Army Rangers
War on Iraq
Our armies do not come into your cities and lands as conquerors or enemies, but as liberators. ... It is [not] the wish of [our] government to impose upon you alien institutions. ... [It is our wish] that you should prosper even as in the past, when your lands were fertile, when your ancestors gave to the world literature, science, and art, and when Baghdad city was one of the wonders of the world. ... It is [our] hope that the aspirations of your philosophers and writers shall be realized and that once again the people of Baghdad shall flourish, enjoying their wealth and substance under institutions which are in consonance with their sacred laws and their racial ideals. -- General F. S. Maude to the people of Mesopotamia, March 19, 1917
War on Iraq of your country, The government of Iraq, and the future
will soon belong to you. ... We will end a brutal regime ... so that Iraqis can live in security. We will respect your great religious traditions, whose principles of equality and compassion are essential to Iraq's future. We will help you build a peaceful and representative government that protects the rights of all citizens. And then our military forces will leave. Iraq will go forward as a unified, independent, and sovereign nation that has regained a respected place in the world. You are a good and gifted people -- the heirs of a great civilization that contributes to all humanity. -- President George W. Bush to the people of Iraq, April 4, 2003
Saddam kicked out U.N. weapons inspectors. WMDs Weapons of Mass Destruction. Saddam did not obey the No-Fly Zone limitations. He was a savage dictator. Stop Saddam before he can launch nuclear missiles against Israel, Europe, or even the United States.
IEDs
Increasing use of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) and/or mines in roads.
Recommendations:
Do not attempt to move, or stop for, items in the road, to include:
Boxes Bags Debris Animal Carcasses UXO Soda Cans Broke-down vehicles
Give wide clearance to any items on the roads. Remember the rules for obstacles They are being observed. Hostile forces may directly target Coalition forces that stop to investigate or clear IEDSdo not stop near a suspected IED.
IED Hidden in Plaster made to look like concrete block on side of road under debris
IED
More IED
X-RAY Image
Communism
Communist ideology gained prominence in 1919 US opposition began in 1946 43 years of Cold and Hot War to defeat the ideology Communism ultimately collapsed from within
Key Lesson: Marginalizing an ideology requires patience and promoting reform from within
We cannot discredit all of Islam as we did with communism, it is a divine religion. We can only discredit the violent extremist
cures must come from within Muslim societies themselves. The United States must support such developments. But this process is likely to be measured in decades, not years. - 9/11 Commission Report
Key Lesson: Capacity building takes decadesbut it is what allows the United States to win this war in the long term.
To win, the US must exploit the vulnerabilities of the enemy. What are they?
US Strategy
The three key elements in win this war are:
Protect and defend the Homeland Attack terrorists and their capacity to operate effectively at home and abroad Support mainstream Muslim efforts to reject violent extremism
In addition to the strategic elements, there are three critical crosscutting enablers:
Expanding foreign partnerships and partnership capacity Strengthening our capacity to prevent terrorist acquisition and use of WMD Institutionalizing domestically and internationally the strategy against violent extremists
This war goes far beyond the borders of Iraq, Afghanistan and the Greater Middle East
Resource rich safe havens for the enemy increasing our risk of attack
Failure to stop the enemy now, while he is relatively weak, portends a larger conflict later at enormous costs.
Much of the worlds energy resources held hostage Many of the worlds population repressed and isolated from growth and prosperity Extremists with the resources to carry-on continued attacks Countries isolated from a global trading economy Other religious beliefs repressed American security and standard of living at jeopardy
Another attack remains an ambition The jihadists lack capability? Improved intelligence and security measures have made operation environment too difficult? They certainly could do something Anything below 9-11 scale would appear feeble They are patient--8 years between '93 WTC bombing and 9-11
If al Qaeda planning (or has ambitions for) another big one, a lesser attack now would make it more difficult--attack when the enemy is inattentive Local recruits instructed to prepare themselves--a crackdown is expected A strategy of "many Madrids?"
Al Qaeda is not a typical terrorist group. It is multinational and not state sponsored. Most terrorist experts have underestimated OBL and Al Qaeda because of the latter. Most so called experts are trying to analyze OBL as a normal terrorist, when he is anything but. He and his followers are motivated by religion and the belief that they are doing Gods will. This makes them much more dangerous than someone fighting for a worldly cause.
Islamic fundamentalism represents a minority that would impose religious doctrine from and earlier historical era.The vast majority of Muslims worldwide do not support violence. Richard Mackenzie as quoted in TOEE, p. 300. This war is fundamentally religious. Under no circumstances should we forget this enmity between us and the infidels For the enmity is based on creed. OBL, quoted in TOEE, p. 19.
Imperial Hubris
We think we are right!
We have to understand that sometimes our actions, no matter how good they seem to us, are viewed by others as harmful to them. We need to understand that the American way does not work for everyone. We need to analyze our foreign policies to see if they are worth the backlash. If they are, we need to be prepared to accept it.
How Do We Win?
Get tough or get out. We cannot underestimate them, therefore fighting a limited war. We cannot continue to fight a politically correct war. Think WWII not Vietnam. We have to kill those who hope to hurt us. The public needs to be educated about the costs. The range of American policy options in the [Middle East] region is reduced to two alternatives, both disagreeable: Get tough or get out.
Westerners have learned, by harsh experience, that the proper response [when attacked by Islamic raiders] is not to take fright but to marshal their forces, to launch massive retaliation and to persist relentlessly until the raiders have either been eliminated or so coed by the violence inflicted that they relapse into inactivitythe world must learn again that the United States, when severely antagonized, is to be feared; that it grinds its mortal enemies to powder as it did sixty years ago, that the widespread view in extremist Islamic circles that it (US) is cowardly, decadent, and easily intimidated by the thought of casualties is false.
How Do We Win?
Reform the Immigration System. We need to know who is in our country. We need to be able to keep track of the people in our country. We need to be able to get them out when their visas expire.
How do we win?
Persian Gulf oil and the lack of serious U.S. alternative-energy development are at the core of the bin Laden issue. For cheap, easily accessible oil, Washington and the West have supported the Muslim tyrannies bin Laden and other Islamists seek to destroy. There can be no other reason for backing Saudi Arabia, a regime that, since its founding, has deliberately fostered an Islamic ideology, whose goals- unlike bin Ladenscan be met only by annihilating all non-Muslims. Scheuer, IH, pg. xi.
Get Off Oil We need to invest in alternative energy sources. Not only will this help the environment, it will make our nation a safer place. If we get off oil, we will have no reason to be in the Middle East, thereby making our country safer.