Chapter 9

Making the Selection Decision

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Learning Objectives
After studying this chapter, you should be able to: Discuss different ways of combining predictors Create a process for establishing cut-off scores Discuss the steps to take once the selection decision has been made

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1. Combining Predictors
Subjective approaches use human judgment, inference, or intuition when combining predictor scores to make a final selection decision. Objective approaches use statistical or mechanical means and equations to combine predictor scores to arrive at a final selection decision.
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Major Approaches to Combine Predictor Scores

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Four Major Approaches to Combine Predictors

Pure judgmental approach: Predictors are selected
and combined exclusively on the judgments of one or more decision makers.

Trait ratings approach: Judgmental data, such as

interview scores, are entered into a mathematical formula to calculate the total score for each applicant. Profile interpretation approach: Objective data about applicants are collected but interpretation and combining is done subjectively.

Statistical approach: Objective data are collected and

combined using mathematical formulae or other objective approaches.
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Choosing an Approach
Research indicates that statistical and mechanical composite approaches are either equal or superior to judgmental approaches to combining data. Reasons include:
Limits on cognitive capacity of humans Human tendency to ignore sample size and quality before jumping to conclusions Human susceptibility to illusory correlation Personal biases
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How to assign weights to various predictors?

Multiple regression: Use regression formula to
combine predictors and arrive at a total score for each applicant.

Multiple cut-off approach: Establish cut-off

score for each predictor and reject applicants who score below the cut-off on any single predictor.

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How to assign weights to various predictors?

Multiple hurdle approach: Applicants must pass each predictor in sequence. Unless the minimum cut-off scores for the first predictor is met, an applicant does not proceed to the second predictor. Combination approach: Multiple cut-off and multiple regression approaches are combined. Profile matching: Scores of current, successful employees are used to generate an ideal profile that is used for selection purposes.
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2. Establishing Cut-off Scores

One of the most challenging tasks in the context of selection. Either too high or too low a cut-off score can be problematic. When establishing cut-off scores, their impact on protected groups should be carefully assessed and continually monitored.

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Establishing cut-off scores is a challenging task!

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Cut-off Scores for Single Predictor Situation

1. Estimate the number of positions to be filled in a period. 2. Estimate the number of applicants during the same period. 3. Estimate the expected distribution of applicant scores on the single predictor. 4. Determine the cut-off score based on the percentage of applicants needed to fill the vacancies and the standard error of measurement.
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Multiple Predictor Situation

1. Using expert advice, rate all test items for their difficulty. In estimating the difficulty level, consider the proportion of minimally acceptable applicants who would answer each question correctly. 2. Add these proportions together to identify the raw cut-off scores. 3. Use the standard error of measurement to adjust the cut-off score.
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Critical Thinking Question

As part of improving the selection procedure, your organization has recently introduced a new cognitive ability test. How will you determine a suitable cut-off score for the test?

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Improving Perceived Fairness in Selection

Use only valid predictors. Consider validity generalization studies. Use systematic approaches. Keep procedures transparent. Audit selection system periodically. Apply banding.
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Top-Down Selection
Involves ranking applicant scores from highest to lowest and offering jobs moving from the top down until all job positions are filled Can lead to maximizing future job performance

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Banding
Banding involves classifying job applicants into different bands based on an equivalent range of scores after taking measurement error into consideration.

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Fixed Bands
The decision maker begins with the top band and considers all applicants in that band before moving onto the next band.

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Sliding Bands
While this is based on the fixed bands, not every applicant in one band needs to be selected before considering applicants in the next band, which provides a larger pool to choose from.

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3. Steps to Take After Selection

1. Realistic job preview: Show the work settings, equipment, and working conditions to the successful applicant before a formal job offer to foster realistic expectations. (Some employers do this at earlier stage in selection.) 2. Formal offer package: The written offer of employment that contains all conditions of employment.
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Common Provisions in Employment Contracts

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Critical Thinking Question

When you were accepted to college or university, what kind of admission package and what kind of information did you receive? How could this admission package be improved?

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Summary
Avoid using gut feelings when combining predictor scores. Systematic logic-driven cut-off procedures generate greater accuracy and greater perceptions of fairness. While a number of alternate decision rules and procedures exist for combining predictors and weighting them, each has its own strengths and limitations. Keep these limitations in mind when choosing a method. While a top-down approach may generate maximum performance, employment equity considerations may necessitate the use of other approaches such as banding. Audit selection systems periodically. Once the selection decision is made, follow-up procedures should ensue in a timely and efficient manner.
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