Dr Ashok K Behuria IDSA, New Delhi 13 August 2011 ITB Police Academy P.O.

Mussoorie, District Dehradun (UKD)

 Epicentre
Politically Emitting Certain

of Terrorism and Radicalism

unstable, economically unviable

corrosive influence

ethnic groups deeply anti-India in outlook, fed and sustained by ISI of Pakistan

Nuclear South

dimension

Asia too deeply interconnected not to be influenced by these developments

Failure to evolve an identity. Muslim State or Islamic state? Pathological obsession with India. Pakistan has to be what India is not.

A predatory military, venal and corrupt political leadership and fractured civil society.
Military committed to preserve the existing state apparatus with its deformities, for its own sake. Pakistan lacks the will to transform itself.

Pakistan: Demographic Information

Annual Pakistani Defence Budget Total and as % of GDP

Operations Conducted by Pakistan Army 2001-2010

Pakistani Forces deployed along Afghan Border (2001-2011)

No of Pakistani Military Posts along Afghan Border

Pakistani army casualties (2001-2011)

Annual Number of Drone Strikes 2004-2011

Monthly Unmanned Drone Strikes in Pakistan 2008-2011

Drone Strikes by District (2004-2011)

No of monthly attacks by Type (October 2008-2011)

Monthly Fatalities in militant attacks( October 2008-2011)

Monthly attacks by Province (January 2006-2011)

Annual Number of Suicide Attacks by Province (2002 -2010)

Total Deaths from Drone Strikes (2006-2011)

Total Number of Internally Displaced Persons (2009-2011)

Annual Inflation

 Sectarian

divides seem unbridgeable : Shia Sunni, Intra-Sunni etc.

increasingly intolerant and violent

Becoming

Talibanisation
Inter-ethnic Punjabi

of southern Punjab

faultlines may erupt

dominance resented by all, especially Sindhis and Balochis irreconcilable Hazaras now assertive

Balochis Seraikis,

system of diarchy at work

Govt

performing municipal functions, Military determines security and foreign policy is assertive coalition walking on a tight rope

Judiciary PPP-led PML-N

in a bind (To topple or not to topple?)

Jamaat-i-Islami The

and Tehrik-e-Insaaf of Imran Khan getting together Hybrid system to continue

 Tax-GDP

ratio: 9.4% Public debt: 56% of GDP ($124bn) Forex reserves: $17bn Heavy dependence on foreign aid IMF tranche not forthcoming (SAP not implemented yet) 7400 MW power shortage FDI inflow affected by uncertain internal security situation Flight of domestic capital

FDI Flows, ODA from US and GDP growth (1960-2009)

Pak Defence Expenditure Forecast By Janes Intelligence

Title 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

GDP Defence Budget Total Defence Procurement Army Budget Navy Budget Air Force Budget Defence-Wide Budget

147.6 3.921 1.188

1.686 0.627 0.922 0.686

156.4 162.3 167.3 173.9 181.6 190.3 198.6 3.937 4.133 4.313 5.273 5.715 6.002 6.256 1.195 1.258 1.313 1.609 1.752 1.834 1.909
1.811 0.610 0.925 0.591 1.901 0.620 1.013 0.599 2.027 0.690 1.009 0.587 2.478 0.844 1.266 0.686 2.629 0.943 1.429 0.714 2.701 0.960 1.501 0.840 2.753 1.001 1.564 0.938

Annual FDI in US$ and as % of GDP

FDI inflows to Pakistan from different countries (2001-2011)

FDI inflows to Pakistan in different sectors 2001-2011

International Aid Commitments to Pakistan by Type (2001-2010)

International Aid Commitments to Provinces (2001-2010)

International Aid Commitments to Pakistan by Sector (2001-2010)

Total Aid and Military Reimbursement to Pakistan (2002-2011)

Estimated Growth of Different types of schools in Pakistan

Population: 2.8 crores GDP: 15.7 billion Dollars Provinces: 34 Districts: 394 Ethnic Groups: Pashtuns: 42% Tajiks: 27% Hazaras: 9% Uzbeks: 9% Aimak: 4% Turkmen: 3% Baloch: 2% Pashai, Nuristani, Arab, Brahui, Pamiri, Gujjar, etc.: 4%

Coalition and Afghan troops "inflicted enormous losses" on mid-level insurgents and "took away some of their most important safe havens in 2010. Reports of unprecedented discord among the members of the Quetta Shura, the Taliban senior leadership body. We clearly now have our teeth in the jugular of the enemy.-Petraeus

Statistics gathered by NATO, as well as other organizations, show that violence rose to its highest levels last year, and U.S. military officials predict that 2011 will be even worse. IEDs also known as roadside bombs, killed 268 American troops in Afghanistan in 2010, up by 60 % since 2009, 3,366 US service members injured (up 178%). 2010 was by far the deadliest for all foreign troops, including Americans, with 702 of the soldiers killed. Afghan government remains dangerously ineffective, Pakistan sanctuary for the Taliban's leadership is still secure. "I can tell you this very clearly: 50 percent of the people who are working with the Afghan government, their hearts are with the Taliban," ----- Munshi Abdul Majid, the governor of Baghlan

According to UN data, more than 2,100 Afghan civilians lost their lives in the first nine months of 2010. Nearly 100,000 American troops already stationed and many more are expected to soon join them. the latest report said that the military ops have caused damage to public property worth 100 million dollars in southern Afghanistan. U.S. investment worth 11.4 billion dollars in building the Afghan National Security Forces not paying off

A younger, more militant generation of leaders appears to have marginalized older figures from the Taliban's government before 2001. Although the Taliban has a strong endogenous impetus, according to Taliban commanders the ISI orchestrates, sustains and strongly influences the movement. They say it gives sanctuary to both Taliban and Haqqani groups, and provides huge support in terms of training, funding, munitions, and supplies. In their words, this is as clear as the sun in the sky. "No matter how authoritative the source of any such claim, messages of this nature are solely intended to influence American and European public opinion ahead of withdrawal," the report by Mat Waldman

"Nothing has happened yet, not secret, not public, .The fighting itself is the big problem. Peace is like water. And fighting is a burning thing. No one can find water amid all of this fire. Abdul Salam Zaeef the Taliban regime's former ambassador to Pakistan

Pakistans influence likely to grow, Indias to decline. Indian influence among the Northern Alliance at an all time low. They sense Indian policy is driven by US.

All groups are arming themselves in preparation for future contingencies.

Even if US stays on the impact will be minimal. China is a silent but critical player. Will it fill up the vacuum??? Will Pakistan cooperate with India???

A politically unstable and economically insecure Pakistan is unlikely to dramatically revise its policy and it will be impossible to expect miracles to happen. Pakistan-US relations quite jerky at the moment post-OBL. China-Pak, Saudi-Pak, Iran-Pak relations upbeat US is unlikely to cut down on drone attacks. Whither PakMilitant relationship? Catch 22: If US policies drive a wedge into Pakistan-Taliban relations, the fate of Pakistanis is doomed. If it allows them to run into each others embrace, the fate of Afghans is doomed. Way Forward: Regional consensus on Afghanistan, Improvement in India-Pak relations and greater emphasis on non-kinetic measures. However, where will the dollars come from???

Taliban unlikely to de-ideologise itself. Pakistan more radical than ever.

Growing radicalisation in the region

Pakistans diversionary tactic to reappear Theatre has shifted from Kashmir to other regions in India. Talks with Pakistan unlikely to succeed despite our best intentions in the short-term.

Negative influence on India, communal hiatus to grow??? Throwback to 1980s???

Keep Pakistan engaged without lowering our guard on security Engage different ethnic groups disillusioned with the Pakistan as a deterring lever

Keep talking to both China and US on Pakistan; engage Iran and Saudi Arabia too
Reengage pro-India forces in Afghanistan Improve political situation in J&K Sensitise security apparatus to the need for restraint especially because international attention is focussed on India.

Take special care not to enable radical forces in India.