PROJECT MANAGEMENT

ADM2302 ~ Rim Jaber

Learning Objectives
Understand how to plan, monitor, and control projects using PERT/CPM. Determine earliest start, earliest finish, latest start, latest finish, and slack times for each activity. Understand impact of variability in activity times. Develop load charts to plan, monitor, and control use of various resources during project. Use LP to find least cost solution to reduce total project time, and solve LP models using Excels Solver. Understand important role of software such as Microsoft Project in project management.
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Introduction
Every organization will take on a large and complex project. Scheduling large projects is difficult challenge to most managers when stakes are high. Millions of dollars in cost overruns have been wasted due to poor project planning. Unnecessary delays have occurred due to poor scheduling, and companies have gone bankrupt due to poor controls. How can such problems be solved? Answers lie in popular decision modeling approach known as project management.
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Project Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling

Source: J. Heizer and B. Render. Operations Management. 6/e. Prentice Hall. 2001.

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Project Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling

Project Planning 1. Setting goals 2. Defining the project 3. Tying needs into timed project activities 4. Organizing the team Project Scheduling 1. Tying resources to specific activities 2. Relating activities to each other 3. Updating and revising on regular basis Project Controlling 1. Monitoring resources, costs, quality and budgets 2. Revising and changing plans 3. Shifting resources to meet demands
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Before Project
During Project

Software Packages in Project Management

Managing large and complex projects has become easier due to availability of specialized project management software packages. Primavera (by Primavera Systems, Inc.), Microsoft Project (by Microsoft Corp.), MacProject (by Apple Computer Corp.), Pertmaster (by Westminster Software, Inc.), VisiSchedule (by Paladin Software Corp.), and Time Line (by Symantec Corp.). Microsoft Project 2000.
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PROJECT SCHEDUELING TECHNIQUES: CPM and PERT

Network Techniques CPM: Critical Path Method PERT: Project Evaluation and Review Technique

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CPM vs. PERT

Primary difference between PERT and CPM is how time needed for each activity in project is estimated.
CPM is a deterministic technique: It estimates completion time of each activity using a single time estimate. PERT is a probabilistic technique: each activity has three time estimates that are combined to determine expected activity completion time and its variance Allows you to find the probability that the entire project will be completed at a given date.
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Questions That May Be Addressed by PERT and CPM

1. When will the project be completed? 2. What are the critical activities or tasks in the project? 3. Which are the noncritical activities? 4. What is the probability that the project will be completed by a specific date? 5. Is the project on schedule, ahead of schedule, or behind schedule? 6. Is the project over or under the budgeted amount? 7. Are there enough resources available to finish the project on time? 8. If the project must be finished in less than the scheduled amount of time, what is the best way to 9 accomplish this at least cost?

Six Steps Common to PERT and CPM

1. Define the project and all of its significant activities or tasks. 2. Develop relationships among the activities. Determine the intermediate predecessors (activities or tasks that must be completed before the current activities can begin). 3. Draw the network connecting all of the activities. 4. Assign time and/or cost estimates to each activity 5. Compute the longest time path through the network. This is called the critical path. 6. Use the network to help schedule, monitor, and control the project. ADM2302 ~ Rim Jaber 10

General Foundry Example to General Foundry, Inc., a metalwork plant in Milwaukee, has long been trying
avoid the expense of installing air pollution control equipment. The local environment protection group has recently given the foundry 16 weeks to install a complex air filter system on its main smokestack. General Foundry was warned that it will be forced to close unless the device is installed in the allotted period. Lester Harky, the managing partner, wants to make sure that installation of the filtering system progresses smoothly and on time. When the project begins the building of the internal components for the device, and the modifications that are necessary for the floor and roof can be started. The construction of the collection stack can begin once the internal components are completed. Pouring the new concrete floor and installation of the frame can be completed as soon as the internal components are completed and the roof and floor have been modified. Once the collection stack has been constructed, the high-temperature burner can be built, and the installation of the pollution control system activity can begin. The air pollution device can be installed after the hightemperature burner has been built, the concrete floor has been poured, and the frame has been installed. Finally, after the control system, and pollution device have been installed, the system can be inspected and tested.
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General Foundry Example (Contd)

1. Define all project activities. 2. Determine the intermediate predecessors (activities/tasks that must be completed before the current activities can begin).

3. Draw the corresponding network.

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General Foundry Example: Activity, Immediate Predecessor, Time

Activity
A B C D E F G H

Description

Immediate Predecessor

Time (weeks)
2 3 2 4 4 3 5 2
13

Build internal components Modify roof and floor Construct collection stack Pour concrete and install frame Build high temperature burner Install control system Install air pollution device Inspection and testing
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A A,B C C D, E F,G

Network Fundamentals
Network: A graphical display of project that contains the activities and shows the precedence relationships among the activities. Activity: A time consuming job or task that is a key subpart of the whole project.
Number of activities in project will depend:
On nature and scope of project. On level of detail with which project manager monitors and controls project.
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Drawing Project Network

There are two approaches for drawing project network --

Activity on Node (AON), and Activity on Arc (AOA).

Although both approaches are popular in practice, many project management software packages, including Microsoft Project 2000, use AON networks. Focus is on AON network:
The nodes of the network represent the activities. The arcs (the line with arrows) represent/show the precedence relationships among the activities.
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Some Network Construction Rules

If activity A precedes activity B, activity A must be completed before starting activity B. Each network has only one start and only one termination point.
If there are two activities or more that do not have any

predecessors, then include a dummy activity called Start. In case of two activities or more with no successors, all arrows must meet at the same Finish-of-project node. Include a dummy activity called Finish Dummy activity does not really exist and takes up zero time and resources.

Two or more activities cannot share both the same start and end event (AOA)
Dummy activities may be needed in AOA networks to show all precedence relationships
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Network for General Foundry, Inc.-Activity on Node (AON)

A
C F

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Network for General Foundry, Inc.-Activity on Node (AON)

2 2 C 3 F 2 H 0

A
0

s
3 B 4 D

4 5 G

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Network for General Foundry, Inc.-Activity on Arc(AOA)

C
(Build Internal Components)

(Construct
Collection Stack)

(Install Control System)

1
B
(Modify Roof and Floor)

(Build Burner)

E
G

6
(Install Pollution Device)

(Inspect and Test)

(Pour Concrete

and Install Frame)

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Network for General Foundry, Inc. (AOA)

C 2
A
t=2

4
F Dummy Activity
t=4 E
t=2

1
B

6
G

t=4

D
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Determining The Project Schedule

Once project network has been drawn to show all activities
and precedence relationships, determine project schedule.

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Critical Path
Definition
The critical path is the longest time path route through the network.

To find out just how long the project will take, perform critical path analysis for network:
Find the Critical Path

How to find the Critical Path?

Determine: ES, EF, LS, LF, and slack time.
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What is ES and EF?

Earliest Start Time (ES): Earliest time at

which an activity can start, assuming all predecessors have been completed.
All predecessors activities must be completed before an activity can be started

Earliest Finish Time (EF): Earliest time

at which an activity can be finished.

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Compute ES and EF for each Activity

EF = ES + t = Earliest start time + activity time ES : make a forward Pass through the network. ==>the earliest start time is the time when all the activities ending at the node have been completed ==> ES =Max{ EF of all immediate predecessors}
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General Foundrys Earliest Start (ES) and Earliest Finish (EF) Times--AON
ES EF ES EF ES EF

ES EF

A 2

C 2
ES EF

F 3
ES EF

s
0 3 B
ES EF

4 5 G
ES EF

ES EF

H 2

f 0

4 D
ES EF

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What is LS and LF?

Latest Start Time (LS): Latest time at

which an activity can start so as to not delay completion time of entire project. Latest Finish Time (LF): Latest time by which an activity has to finish so as to not delay the completion time of entire project.
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Compute LS and LF for each activity

For each activity, determine its LF value, followed by its LS value. LS = LF - t = Latest Finish time - activity time. LF : make a backward pass through the network (begins with last activity in project) ==> computed by making sure that the
project will not be delayed for any activity LF = Min{ LS of all immediate following activities}
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General Foundrys Latest Start (LS) and Latest Finish (LF) Times--AON
LS LF LS LF LS LF

LS LF

A 2

C 2
LS LF

F 3
LS LF

s
0 3 B
LS LF

4 5 G
LS LF

LS LF

H 2

f 0

4 D
LS LF

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General Foundrys ES,LS,EF and LF-AON

S= ( 0,0) F= ( 2,2) S=( 2,2) F=( 4,4) S= (4 ,10) F=(7 ,13)

S=(0 ,0) F=(0,0)

A 2

C 2
S=(4 ,4) E 4 F=( 8,8)

F 3

S= ( 13,13) F=( 15,15) S= ( 15,15) F=( 15,15)

s
0 3 B
S=( 0,1) F=(3 ,4)

H 2

f 0

4 D
S=(3 ,4) F=(7,8)

5 G
S=( 8,8) F= (13 ,13)
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Results of CPM: Activities Along Critical Path

General Foundrys Schedule and Slack Times
Earliest Earliest Latest Activity Start (ES) Finish (EF) Start (LS) On Latest Slack Critical Finish (LF) (LS - ES) Path?

A B C D E F G H

0 0 2 3 4 4 8 13

2 3 4 7 8 7 13 15

0 1 2 4 4 10 8 13
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2 4 4 8 8 13 13 15

0 1 0 1 0 6 0 0

Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes

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Results of CPM: Activities Along Critical Path (contd.)--AON

2 2 C 3 F 2 H 0

A
0

s
3 B 4 D

4 5 G

General Foundrys Critical Path (A - C - E - G - H)

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Multiple Critical Paths

In General Foundrys case, there was just a single critical path. Can project have multiple critical paths? Answer is yes.

For example, what if time required for activity B had

been estimated as 4 weeks, instead of 3 weeks? Due to this change, earliest and latest times for activities B and D would have to be revised.
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Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

An alternative to CPM

Uses Probabilistic activities times Same step as taken for the CPM Network Except:
on the fourth step instead of assuming a single time estimate we determine three time estimates for each activity: m, a, and b
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Three Time Estimates in PERT

Optimistic time (a)= time an activity will take if

everything goes as planned. Pessimistic time (b) = time an activity will take assuming very unfavorable conditions. Most likely time (m) = most realistic estimate of time required to complete an activity.

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Beta Probability Distribution with Three Time Estimates

Probability

Probability of 1 in 100 (a) Occuring

Probability of 1 in 100 (b) Occuring

Optimistic Time (a)

Most Likely Time (m)

Pessimistic Activity Time Time (b)

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Expected Time and Variability

To find expected activity time, t, beta distribution weights three time estimates as follows: t = (a + 4m + b) / 6
Most likely time (m) is given four times weight as optimistic time (a) and pessimistic time (b)

To compute dispersion or variance of activity completion time, use formula:

Variance = [ (b - a) / 6 ] 2

Standard deviation of activity completion time is square root of variance.

Standard deviation = Variance = (b - a) / 6
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a + 4m + b Variance = t= 6 Optimistic Most Pessimistic Expected Time a Probable- m b t = [(a + 4m + b)/6] Activity

Time Estimates (in weeks) for General Foundry, Inc. (Table 13.2)b - a
(

A
B C D E F G H

1
2 1 2 1 1 3 1

2
3 2 4 4 2 4 2

3
4 3 6 7 9 11 3

6 4-2 2 3 ( 6 ) = 3-1 2 ( 6 ) = 2 6-2 2 ( 6 ) = 4 7-1 2 4 ( 6 ) = 9-1 2 3 ( 6 ) = 11 - 3 2 5 ( 6 ) = 3-1 2 2 = ( 6 ) 37 Total 25 weeks

6 Variance [(b - a)/6]2 3-1 2 4

) =

36 4 36 4 36 16 36 36 36 64 36 64 36 4 36

Results of PERT: Activities Along Critical Path

2 2 C 3 F 2 H 0

A
0

s
3 B 4 D

4 5 G

Activities Along Critical Path

General Foundrys Critical Path (A - C - E - G - H)
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PERT Time Estimates

Most Optimistic Probable Pessimistic Expected Activity (a) (m) (b) Time Variance

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PERT Worksheet
Activity Expected Time ES EF LF Slack Critical?

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The Expected Project Completion Time

tp
= Sum

of the expected (mean) time of all the activities on the critical path.

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The project Variance

PERT uses variance of critical path activities to help determine variance of overall project. Project variance computed by summing variances of critical activities: Project variance = S (variances of activities on critical path) Variance of activities are: A is 0.11, C is 0.11, E is 1.00, G is 1.78, and H is 0.11. Total project variance and project standard deviation are computed as follows: Project variance (sP2) = 0.11 + 0.11 + 1.00 + 1.78 + 0.11 = 3.11 weeks2 Project standard deviation (sP) = (Project variance) = (3.11) = 1.76 weeks
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Probability of Completing Project on Time

General Foundry, Inc. How can information be used to answer questions regarding probability of finishing project on time? PERT makes two more assumptions: (1) total project completion times follow normal probability distribution; and (2) activity times are statistically independent. Normal curve implies there is 50% chance project completion time will be less than 15 weeks, and 50% chance it will exceed 15 weeks.

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Probability of General Foundrys Meeting the Deadline of 16 weeks

Compute Standardized Data Values: the number of standard deviations (Z) a value is from the mean, then refer to the normal table to find the probability Z = Due Date - Expected Completion Date = 16 - 15 1.76 = 0.57

.57 Standard Deviations Probability (T <= 16 Weeks) is 71.6%

15 Weeks

16 Weeks

Time

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Meeting 16-week Deadline

General Foundry, Inc.

Z = (due date - expected date of completion) / sP = (16 weeks - 15 weeks) / 1.76 weeks = 0.57 Referring to Normal Table in Appendix A, there is 71.6% chance pollution control equipment can be put in place in 16 weeks or less.

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Determining Project Completion Time for Given Confidence Level

Project completion time follows normal probability distribution with mean of 15 weeks and standard deviation of 1.76 weeks.
Find due date deadline for 99% chance of project completion. Determine Z value corresponding to 99%.
In Normal Table in Appendix A, identify a Z value of 2.33 as closest to a 0.99 probability.

Due Date = Expected completion time + Z x sP = 15 + 2.33 x 1.76 = 19.1 weeks

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Determining Project Completion Time for Given Confidence Level

General Foundry, Inc.

Due Date = Expected completion time + Z x sP = 15 + 2.33 x 1.76 = 19.1 weeks

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Project Crashing

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Project Crashing
Project manager may be faced with either (or both) situations: (1) the project is behind schedule, and/or (2) the scheduled project completion time has been moved forward. Some or all of remaining activities need to be expedited to finish project by desired due date. Process to shorten duration of project in lowest cost possible is called project crashing. Choose which activities to crash, and by how much to ensure: Amount by which activity is crashed is permissible. Shortened activity durations enable one to finish project by due date and Total cost of crashing is as small as possible.
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Crashing Project - Hand Calculations

Four Steps of Project Crashing 1. Compute crash cost per week for all activities in network. If crash costs are assumed to be linear over time, following formula may be used: Crash cost per period = (Crash cost - Normal cost) (Normal time -Crash time) 2. Using current activity times, find critical path(s) in project network. Identify the critical activities. 3. If there is only one critical path, then select activity on critical path that: (a) can still be crashed, and (b) has smallest crash cost per period. Crash this activity by one period. 50

Crashing Project - Hand Calculations

If there is more than one critical path, then select one activity from each critical path such that: (a) each

selected activity can still be crashed, and (b) total

crash cost per period of all selected activities is smallest. Crash each activity by one period each. 4. Update all activity times. If desired due date has been reached, stop. If not, return to Step 2.
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Crash and Normal Times and Costs

Activity Cost $34,000 Crash Cost $33,000

Crash
Crash Cost/Week = Crash Cost - Normal Cost Normal Time - Crash Time $34,000 - $30,000 = 3-1 = $4,000 = $2,000/Week 2 Weeks Normal

$32,000
$31,000 $30,000 Normal Cost 1 Crash Time 2 3

Time (Weeks) Normal Time

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Project Crashing
Time (Weeks) Activity Normal Crash Cost ($) Normal Crash Crash Cost per Week Critical Path?

A B C D E F G H

2 3 2 4 4 3 5 2

1 1 1 3 2 2 2 1

$22,000 $30,000 $26,000 $48,000 $56,000 $30,000 $80,000 $16,000

$23,000 $34,000 $27,000 $49,000 $58,000 $30,500 $86,000 $19,000

$1,000 $2,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $500 $2,000 $3,000

Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes

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A Linear Programming Model for Crashing Decisions

Use Linear programming to determine which activities to crash and how much they should be crashed
Decision Variables
Xfin= the finish time of the project Xi = the earliest start time for activity i Yi = the amount of time activity i is crashed
i = A, B, C, D,E, F, G, H
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Objective function
Minimize Crash Cost =

Constraints Crash Time Constraints (maximum allowable crashing time for each activity)

Project Completion Constraint

Xfin <= 13

Constraints Describing the Network: Precedence

Constraints.
(ES of an activity)>= (EF of the Immediate Predecessor activity)
EF = ES + t If ES the earliest start time for an activity is known, the effect of crashing a particular activity will be to reduce the t and hence EF, the earliest finish time
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Precedence Constraints
General Foundry, Inc.
Duration of activity i may be reduced by Yi. If activity A starts the earliest at XA, then the earliest finish (EF) is at (XA+2-YA). Earliest start time of activity C (namely, XC) can be no earlier than (XA+2-YA). XA =0 XB = 0 XC XA + 2 - YA (precedence AC) XD XA + 2 YA (precedence AD) XD XB + 3 - YB (precedence BD) XE XC + 2 - YC (precedence CE) XF XC + 2 - YC (precedence CF) XG XD + 4 - YD (precedence DG) XG XE + 4 - YE (precedence EG) XH XF + 3 - YF (precedence FH) XH XG + 5 YG (precedence GH) Xfin XH + 2 YH (precedence HFin) All Xi and Yi 0 (non-negativity)
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Managing Project Costs

Steps of the Budgeting Process Identify all costs with each of the activities. Then add these costs together to get one estimated cost or budget for each activity. If you are dealing with a large project, several activities may be combined into larger work packages. A work package is simply a logical collection of activities. Since the Genaral Foundry project we have been discussing is small, one activity will be a work package.
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Steps of the Budgeting Process

3. Convert the budget cost per activity into a cost per time period. To do this, we assume that the cost of completing any activity is spent at a uniform rate over time.
If budgeted cost for given activity is $48,000 and activity's expected time is four weeks, budgeted cost per week is $12,000 (= $48,000/4 weeks).

4. Using the earliest and latest start times, find out how much money should be spent during each week or month to finish the project by the date desired.
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PERT and Budgeting: Activity Cost for General Foundry, Inc.

Earliest Start (ES) Latest Start (LS) Expected Time, t Total Budgeted Cost Budgeted Cost per Week

Activity

A B C D E F G H

0 0 2 3 4 4 8 13

0 1 2 4 4 10 8 13

2 3 2 4 4 3 5 2 Total
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$22,000 $30,000 $26,000 $48,000 $56,000 $30,000 $80,000 $16,000 $308,000

$11,000 $10,000 $13,000 $12,000 $14,000 $10,000 $16,000 $ 8,000

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PERT and Budgeting

Using the earliest start time, we can find the exact weeks during which the budget for each activity should be spent. These weekly amount can be summed for all the activities to arrive at the weekly budget for the entire project.

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Budget Cost ($1000)for General Foundry Inc., Using Earliest Start Times
Week
Activity 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 11 11 A 10 10 10 B C 13 13 D 12 12 12 12 E 14 14 14 14 F 10 10 10 G H 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Total
22 30 26 48 56 30 80 16 308

16 16 16 16 16

Total/Week 21 21 23 25 36 36 36 14 16 16 16 16 16 8 8 Total to date 21 42 65 90 126 162 198 212 228 244 260 276 292 300 308
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PERT and Budgeting

Another budget can be computed using the latest start time. This budget will delay the expenditure of funds until the last possible moment.

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Budget Cost ($1000)for General Foundry Inc., Using Latest Times

Week
Activity 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 11 11 A B 10 10 10 C 13 13 D 12 12 12 12 E 14 14 14 14 F G H 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Total
22 30 26 48 56 30 80 16 308

10 10 10 16 16 16 16 16

Total/Week 11 21 23 23 26 26 26 26 16 16 26 26 26 8 8 Total to date 11 32 55 78 104 130 156 182 198 214 240 266 292 300 308
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Total Budgeted Cost

Budget Ranges for General Foundry, Inc.

Budget Using Earliest Start Times, ES

$300,000

$250,000
$200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
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Budget Using Latest Start Times, LS Weeks

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Budget Ranges for General Foundry, Inc.

Lester Harky can use any budget between the feasible ranges and still complete the air pollution project on time. Budget shown in the previous figure are normally developed before the project is started. Then as the project is being completed, funds expended should be monitored and controlled. Purpose of monitoring and controlling project costs is to ensure project is progressing on schedule and cost overruns kept to minimum.
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Monitoring and Controlling Projects Costs

Is the Project on Schedule and within the budget? Value of work completed = (percent of work completed)*(total activity budget) Activity difference = actual cost value of work completed Activity difference <= 0 cost underrun Activity difference >= 0 Cost overrun
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Monitoring and Controlling budget Cost (week 6)

Total Value of Work Percent of Completed Actual Cost Activity Budgeted Difference Activity Completion Cost ($) ($) ($) A B C D E F G H
$22,000 $30,000 $26,000 $48,000 $56,000 $30,000 $80,000 $16,000 100 100 100 10 20 20 0 0 Total 22,000 30,000 26,000 4,800 11,200 6,000 0 0 100,000 20,000 36,000 26,000 6,000 20,000 4,000 0 0 112,000

-2,000 6,000 0 1,200 8,800 -2,000 0 0 12,000

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Overrun

Monitoring and Controlling budget Cost

Question: The value of work completed is on $100,000, and the actual cost of the project to date is $112,000. How do these costs compare to the budget cost for week 6?

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