Pre-feasibility Analysis

Case: Bus Rapid Transit, Hyderabad

Nisha Jain (12Ex-029) Nitin Gera(12Ex-030)

Purpose of Pre-feasibility Study

The purpose of a pre-feasibility study is to select the preferred option (Base Case) for the project development. This base case option is then developed in sufficient detail to support decisions to commit the additional funds required to: collect additional information carry out a final project feasibility study complete the required project permitting efforts

Pre feasibility Analysis includes:

- Needs and options analysis
- Legal feasibility

- Technical feasibility
- Scoping social/environment safeguards analysis - Preliminary financial viability including expectations of required Government financial support - Institutional capability analysis - Identification of next steps required

The pre-feasibility study lays the foundation for the project work scope carried forward into the feasibility study

Needs and options analysis

Traffic flow is nearing capacity, so that any minor incident can bring traffic to a standstill for extended periods of time. The rapid growth in the private vehicle fleet means that if nothing is done, Hyderabads traffic condition will deteriorate further and result in severe congestion
The options available for addressing huge traffic problem are : - Elevated metro - Elevated monorail - Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) Whatever measures are taken to improve mass transit in Hyderabad, they should be accompanied by policies to: - Restrain private vehicle use - Improve conditions for cycling and walking.

Estimating Future Demand for BRT, Metro, and Monorail

Because metro and monorail systems are expensive, they generally can not be expanded fast enough to keep pace with urban dispersal and the growth of private motor vehicle fleets.
BRT Sys. Daily PAX Corr 1 pphpd Sys. Daily PAX Metro Corr 1 pphpd Sys. Daily PAX Monorail Corr 1 pphpd

2008
2011 2021

854,001
905,221 1,076,042

14,441
15,307 18,195

653,862
693,093 873,298

11,057
11,720 14,767

482,362
511,303 607,776

8,157
8,646 10,277

Pphpd: peak period passengers per hour per direction PAX: passengers

Effect of Fare and Travel Time on Demand for Three Alternative Systems
Travel Time Effect on Demand for Three Mass Transit Systems Metro Monorail BRT

Time Savings(min)
Equivalent Value (INR) % savings Effect on Demand

17
2.8 41% +20%

17
2.8 41% +20%

21
3.4 49% +24%

Travel Cost Effect on Demand for Three Mass Transit Systems Metro Proj. Fare % difference from bus Effect On Demand 10.5 50% -25% Monorail 14 100% -50% BRT 7 0 0

The net effect of the differences in system characteristics between the three mass transit systems analyzed on demand is -5% for metro, -30% for monorail, and a +24% for BRT.

Estimated Costs and Financial Feasibility

Comparative First Year Profit / Loss for Hyderabad BRT, MRT, and Monorail (in Rs. Crore) Metro
Capital Cost Companys Estimate ITDP Est. Capital Cost/Km Annualized Capital Costs Companys Estimate ITDP Estimate Annual Capital Subsidy (6 year financing) Annualized Capital Cost (20 year life) Operating Costs Annual Revenue Net Operating Profit / Loss Annualized Profit / Loss Projected Annual Farebox Revenue 4204 5170 110 135 862

Monorail
2500 8910 45 162 1485

BRT
408

17 68

259 108 206 +98 -161

446 80 213 +133 -313

20 42 188 +146 +126

*ITDP: Institute for Transportation and Development Policy

BRT Do not require large capital subsidies Adv: Low capital cost

Metro require large capital subsidies Adv: potentially higher capacity, but this level of capacity is unlikely to be required in Hyderabad High Fare price which will suppress demand

Monorail require large capital subsidies Adv: minimize land acquisition

Not so high fare price

High Fare price which will suppress demand

BRT can provide effective mass transit without requiring an increase in fare price. Thus, BRT has the highest potential to increase public transit mode share and relieve congestion in Hyderabad

Environmental and Safety Benefits of BRT in Hyderabad

BRT emissions benefits result from the use of cleaner buses, the shifting of passengers from private vehicles to public transit, and finally the use of fewer buses per passenger trip (because the buses have more capacity and are not stuck in congestion). BRT system would be constructed with safe pedestrian infrastructure in the entire corridor. Traffic fatalities in the Bogot BRT corridor dropped by 98% in the first year.

Some Characteristics of BRT system

System Design Recommendations

BRT System capacity is a function of:

a. The capacity of the vehicle b. The load factor (how many passengers are actually using each bus at any given link) c. The frequency of the vehicles d. Average speed of the vehicle, determined by operating speeds, intersection delays, and time required for boarding and alighting

Increasing Bus Capacity

Bus capacity is basically a function of the length of the bus. The articulated bus used in TransMilenio (above) has become the BRT standard because as the buses get any longer (bi-articulated) they become much more expensive and have difficulties on turns.

Increasing the Load Factor Another way to increase the actual capacity of the system is to increase the number of passengers per bus, or the load factor. Shifting the bus routing system to a trunk and feeder system will increase the load factor of each bus.

Increasing Bus Frequency and Reducing Headways

Increasing the number of buses per hour that can pass through a corridor before the bus station congests Reducing the dwell time can help in increasing the no. of buses
Dwell times have fixed as well as variable elements Fixed element: time it takes the vehicle to slow down, speed up, and open and close its doors. Variable elements: passenger boarding and alighting time a function of the number of passengers getting on and off the bus at any given station, and how long it takes them to get on and off per passenger. Together, these elements will determine the total dwell time.

In order to increase capacity further, there needs to be an additional lane in each direction at the bus station where the buses can go around other buses that are stopped to load passengers

Proposed Configuration options for BRT

Configuration I: BRT with Best Ped. Amenities. Example: Bogota, Colombia

Configuration 2: BRT and Minimum Sidewalk Only Example, Quito, Ecuador

Configuration 3: Median Two-Way BRT and One Mixed Traffic Lane Per direction. Example: Rouen, France

Configuration4. Curb-side bus lane on One- Way Street. Example: Quito, Ecuador

Configuration 5: Median One-Way BRT with Two Lane, two-way mixed traffic street. Example: Quito, Ecuador

Configuration 6. Side-Aligned TwoWay BRT Adjacent to Two Lane, oneway street. Example: Curitiba, Brazil.

Hyderabad BRT Fare Collection System considerations

Selecting an appropriate ticketing system is complex and relates not only to the speed and capacity of the BRT system but also to the institutional structure of the BRT system

Smart card ticketing systems may be adopted in order to: 1) allow easy discounted transfer to other systems or lines, 2) allow other commercial uses of the smart cards, 3) improve control over the revenue stream For speed and capacity of the BRT system alone, the current manual collection method with an independent collector inside the bus is old fashioned but very efficient External collection would accelerate the boarding process at critical points where many passengers board at the same time, like at terminals

Assessment of Costs
Estimated Capital Costs of 24km BRT Corridor in Hyderabad Per Km costs
Footpaths & Pedestrian Amenities Pavement Cost - Mixed Traffic lanes Pavement Cost - BRT Lanes Moving Poles Moving Transformers Bus Stations Dividers & Medians Overruns, miscellaneous

Lakh Rs/Km
15 25 19 2.5 12 80 0.35 50

#per Km
2 4 2 2 2 2 2 1

Total Crore Rs.

7 24 91 120 58 38 0.3 12

Sub-Total
Additional Costs - Terminal Stations 1250 (Lakh Rs. each) 2 (quantity)

98
25

Total Infrastructure
Bus Fleet Acquisition (averaged price of articulated and feeder buses) Land Acquisition - per ha (estimated as per market value)

123 80 10,000 205 205

Projected Impacts of BRT in Hyderabad

The BRT system could significantly improve current mixed traffic speeds. It is anticipated that mixed traffic vehicle speeds will increase by at least 5kph on average
The BRT system would lead to a significant reduction in air pollution by roughly 20% - 40% in the corridor Currently BRT Corridor I has an average of 60 fatalities a year, of which 35 are pedestrians. The BRT system is likely to reduce these fatalities to fewer than 5 per year

Next Steps
Establish a permanent project management unit to oversee the implementation of the project, and to appoint a director with significant powers to see the project through
Complete the on-board origin-destination survey of bus passengers, and plug this into a traffic model to get more robust demand estimates for each corridor, to make critical decisions about the importance of route changes Decisions about where land acquisition and road widening are possible and where they are not possible, and to what extent, needs to be made quickly