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Greenhouse effect and health

Liana Mos, MD, PhD Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry West University Vasile Goldis Arad, Romania Department of Internal Medicine

Arad, 28.11.2009

Premises
Climate change of the order and time frames
predicted by climate scientists poses fundamental questions of human security, survival and the stability of nation states which necessitate judgments about political and strategic risks as well as economic cost;

WHO estimates that in the year 2000, there were


150,000 excess deaths per year due to climate change; Climate change is already affecting health around the world, and its impact on health will continue to grow.

Greenhouse effect - The Earth has a natural temperature control system

Certain atmospheric gases called greenhouses gases, consisting mostly of carbon dioxide
(CO2), are critical for maintaining this system

Leading sources of greenhouse gas emissions are combustion of fossil fuels: coal, oil, and natural gas. Since pre-industrial times, the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases has increased significantly - CO2 by about 31%, methane by about 150%, and nitrous oxide by about 16% (Watson et al 2001).

Global Contributors to Greenhouse Gas Emissions


Global carbon dioxide emissions are projected to
The dangerous level of CO2 is at MOST 450 ppm,
increase by at least 50% over the next 25 years under current conditions.

probably less. Were now at 386 ppm. Deforestation releases carbon stored in trees, with current annual emissions of CO2 amounting to 23 billion metric tons or about 1% of total CO2 in the atmosphere. To stabilize below 450 ppm CO2 would require that emissions peak by 2010, with a 6 10% annual decline thereafter to reduce emissions by 80% by 2050.
Adapted after L. Rudolph, 2008

Annual Carbon Dioxide Emissions - 2005


Others Japan India EU Russia China U.S. 4,6% 4,9% 5,6% 11,4% 18,4% 22,4%
Total CO2 measured in thousands of metric tons

32,7%

0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% 30,0% 35,0%


U.S. per capita emissions of carbon are over 20 times higher than India, 12 times higher than Brazil, and 7 times higher than China. The most current estimates state that China is about to surpass the US in emissions and its rate of emissions is accelerating.

Source: U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory

Historically, the earths climate has experienced significant changes over the last 400,000 years, going from very warm to an ice age in as rapidly as a few decades, suggesting that our climate is quite sensitive to internal and external energies and feedback.

Climate Change is Happening Now

This episode of global warming is due to human activity. It began with the Industrial Revolution two centuries ago, and accelerated
over the last 40 years.
Source: IPCC 2007 (4th Assessment)Panel on Climate Change The 2007 report of the Intergovernmental

The mean global surface temperature has increased by about


0.3 to 0.6C since the late 19th century. In the past four decades, it has increased by about 0.2 to 0.3C, which is way beyond natural climatic cycles would explain.

IPCC 2007: Human Impact is Evident

Source: IPCC 2007 (4th Assessment)

Projected Impacts of Global Temperature Change


0C Food 1C 2C 3C 4C 5C
Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions Falling yields in many Possible rising yields in developed regions some high latitude regions 450 ppm CO2 eq
Small mountain glaciers disappear water supplies threatened in several areas Significant decreases in water availability in many areas, including Mediterranean and Southern Africa

Water

Sea level rise

Ecosystems
Declining food yields Extinction of animal & plant species

Extreme Weather Events

650 ppm CO2 eq

Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves

Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Changes


Source: L. Rudolph, 2008 2008 Adapted after L. Rudolph,

Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system

Climate Change: Sea Level Rise


Effects of rising sea level
Coastal areas will become vulnerable to storms and flooding Loss of coastal wetlands and erosion of beaches Contamination of drinking water

Climate Change: Floods & Droughts


Warmer temperatures can result
in premature and rapid snowmelt

Severe flooding may occur


during winter and spring, with slower water flow during summer seasons

Climate Change: Wildfires


Wildfires Climate models predict the
summer months will be longer, and hotter, due to global warming

Result: dry soil and vegetation


become fuel for wildfires

Climate Changes Impacts on Health

Source: Haines, et al, JAMA 2004

Health Impacts of Heat Waves


Health impacts likely to be seen 1 to 3 days
after the onset of the heat waves
Health effects of extreme and prolonged heat exposure include: heat cramps, heat stroke, heat syncope

Devastating heat waves seen elsewhere


August 2003 European heat wave: 35,000 excess deaths

Extreme Weather Events & Disease Clusters

Source: Epstein, Harvard Center for Health & Global Environment

Potential Environmental Impacts of Climate Change: Air Quality


Increased temperature and
increased carbon dioxide in atmosphere leads to
Increase in formation of groundlevel ozone (and smog) Increased allergen production (e.g. pollen) Longer seasons for allergen producing weeds

Senior citizens, children, and people with respiratory and chronic diseases
are most vulnerable to high levels of ozone and increased allergens

Health effects of high levels of ozone exposure include:


Reduced lung function Respiratory discomfort Exacerbation of chronic respiratory illnesses (e.g. asthma)

Health Effects of Air Pollution


Amount of goods transported
through California projected to nearly quadruple between 2000 and 20201 Will have significant impact on air quality and health2 Diesel particulate matter (PM)
concentrated around ports, railyards, and heavily trafficked roads3 premature deaths cancer respiratory disease lost workdays global warming (2nd to CO2)

Annual Health Impacts in CA from PM and Ozone4

1 (Cal EPA, 2005); 2 (Pacific Institute, 2006) 3 (CA/EPA Air Resources Board); 4 (CA/EPA Air Resources Board, 2004)

The most vulnerable ecological and socioeconomic systems are those with the greatest sensitivity to climate change and the least ability to adapt.

Ecosystems that are already under stress are particularly vulnerable. Socio-economic systems tend to be more vulnerable in developing countries with weaker economies and institutions.

Adapting to Impacts of Climate Change


The potential impacts of climate change on the environment
and socio-economic systems can be understood in terms of sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability of the system; Sensitivity degree to which a system will respond to any given change in climate, e.g., the ecosystems composition, structure & function; Adaptability degree to which adjustments are possible in a systems practices, processes or structures in response to, or in anticipation of the changed condition, whether spontaneous or planned; Vulnerability extent to which climate change may damage or harm a system. It depends not only on the systems sensitivity but also on its ability to adapt.

What to Address?
Threatened food security warming could affect
food production and could reduce global food supply; Inundation of coastal areas rise in sea level and increased precipitation put to risk low-lying areas special in small islands; Water shortage in inland areas higher temperatures and intense hydrological cycles heighten effects of drought or dry spells; Health risks climate warming could bring about new breed of disease-bearing organisms, heat waves;

Adaptation
We need to prepare now for the inevitable
effects of climate change Good news: preparing for one type of emergency prepares us for all types of emergencies Preparation minimizes impact of disasters and fear/anxiety

Strategies for Adaptation


Preventing losses, for example, by building barriers against sea
level rise or reforesting hillsides to prevent erosion.

Reducing losses by redesigning crop mix to ensure a


guaranteed minimum production even during the worst conditions.

Sharing burden with those worst affected by conducting relief


operations and mobilizing resources.

Changing or shifting activity or relocating production sites to


areas less vulnerable.

Restoring damage sites especially historical ones or those that


are of great cultural importance to communities.

Vulnerability

What Should We Do?


1. Reduce, Reuse, Recycle
Reduce energy usage and GHG emissions
As individuals, at home As organizations, at work

2. Prepare for impact of climate change = Adaptation


As individuals/families As local health department

3. Advocate for healthy policies - Support legislation that reduces GHG emissions
- Support sustainable lifestyles & communities

Ex. Reducing GHG Emissions


Multi-level prevention approach can be taken to respond to climate change
Primary prevention = climate change mitigation Efforts to slow, stabilize, reverse climate change by reducing GHG emissions Efforts will occur in sectors such as energy and transportation Secondary/tertiary prevention = climate change adaptation Efforts to minimize health burden of climate change similar for other uncertainties (e.g. pandemic flu, bioterrorist attack), in adaptation efforts Health co-benefits Benefits of climate change that have a positive effect on health Example: promote cleaner energy production and cleaner fuels Primary result = reduced GHG emissions from energy production Co-benefit = less air pollution = less respiratory distress Strategy: reducing vehicle miles traveled Primary result = lower motor vehicle GHG emissions Co-benefit = higher physical activity rate

Source: Frumkin, et al., AJPH 3/08

Transport
Fuel efficiency Hybrids Road to rail Public transport Non-motorized transport

Agriculture

Crop & land management Livestock & manure management Improved N fertilizer use Industry Buildings Energy efficiency Day lighting Heat & power recovery Energy efficiency Energy supply Improved cook stoves Coal to gas Solar heating & cooling Nuclear power * Items in green have health co-benefits! Renewable energy
*The green ones on this list, for example, have health co-benefits. .

Ex - GHG reductions in 4 cities would avoid


(through 2020)
64,000 premature deaths 65,000 chronic bronchitis cases 37 million person-days of restricted activity or work loss

Sources: IPCC (2001); Caton (2000); Blomqvist (2000); Cifuentes (2001)

Ex. Climate Benefits of Reduced Meat Consumption


Average European diet requires the production of extra 1.5 CO2 compared to a strictly vegetarian diet. 2.2 pounds beef = CO2 of 155 miles driving. Meat consumption reduction of 20% = switch from Camry sedan to Prius

Reductions Greenhouse gas emissions Antibiotic use Water pollution (nitrates) Air pollution Soil erosion Unsustainable H2O consumption Pesticide Use

Increases Biodiversity Global food security Protein intake equity Rural community strength

Reductions Ischemic heart disease Obesity Colorectal cancer Breast & prostate cancers Type II Diabetes Antibiotic resistance Respiratory disease Pesticide health effects

Borrowed from L. Rudolph

What Can We Do to Combat Global Warming?


Establish recycling programs in the workplace and
home
Recycling half of your household waste = hundreds of lbs. of CO2 saved per year

Promote energy efficiency in the home and workplace


Changing regular light bulbs to compact fluorescent bulb throughout your house = hundreds of lbs of CO2/yr

Make small energy use changes on a broad scale


E.g. replacing all light bulbs with energy efficient light bulbs in all County buildings

Encourage renewable energy power sources (solar


energy and wind energy) and responsible use of energy
Turning off your TV, computer, and other electronics = thousands of lbs. of CO2 saved per year

Try to drive less and walk more!


You save gas money and keep our air cleaner for every mile you dont drive Most car trips taken in your neighborhood are short enough to walk or bike

Encourage carpooling to

work/school Encourage public transportation use

Purchase fuel-efficient vehicles (e.g. electric, hybrid, CNG vehicles)


Every gallon of gas saved = tens of lbs. of CO2 saved

If you do take a car, maintain it


Properly inflated tires can improve gas mileage by 3%

What else Should We Do?


Educate ourselves, public, and policy makers Partnerships and collaboration Behavior change Carbon footprint reduction Increase research: health co-benefits Protect vulnerable populations Monitor health impacts of climate change Preparedness and adaptation
Borrowed from L. Rudolph

The Time for Inaction Has Past!


Scale of threat is global: touches all, everywhere Intensity of the threat: threatens all of our basic survival
mechanisms - food, water, shelter, and health. Scale of response: must engage every sector of society Timeframe for response: we have at most 10 years - not 10 years to decide upon action, but 10 years to alter fundamentally the trajectory of global greenhouse emissions."

There is still time, but just barely. (Dr. James


Hansen, director of NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

Fighting climate change is aligned with protecting


and promoting health, many of the proposed solutions for climate change are healthy for everyone

We have the appropriate skills:


Skills to effect behavior change; Skills that can help people adopt greener behaviors too; Policy and advocacy skills that will help encourage organizational and societal changes.

Plenty to be worried about but big chance to play a key role in achieving a global solution, revitalised health promotion and true sustainability!
...It is man-made and it can be overcome and eradicated by the actions of human beings. Nelson Mandela

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