THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM FOR LAHORE

INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

What is Climate Change?

Climate change is attributed mostly to the rapidly increasing concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as CO2 from human activities in the agriculture, forestry, energy, waste and industry sectors Energy (power and transport), Waste and Industry, sectors which contribute greatly to GHG emissions, are urban-related activities

Source: University of Colorado

Source: Government of Canada website

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Asian Trends - Energy

Energy consumption 1980 2030
Asia: 70% of global growth in energy demand Non-OECD Asia: energy use triples between 2004 - 2030 Coal use growing in Asia, declining in the West

http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/press/images/06-03-1.gif
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Trends Climate change

Energy-related carbon emissions 2003 - 2030
Carbon emissions to grow worldwide but faster in Asia Main contributors are power generation and transport

http://www.accf.org/images/Test399Fig8.gif

Pakistan Trend Coarse Suspended Particulate Matters in Air PM10

1200 1000
800 600 400

1030 895 834 910 870 709

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200 Safe Limit 0

Multan Lahore Karachi Peshawer Quetta Faisalabad Rawalpindi

Safe Limits: WHO Guidelines: 120 g/m3 Japanese Standards: 200 g/m3
Source: EPAs Punjab , Sindh, NWFP 2006
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Causes and impact: air pollution influences climate change (long-term)

Climate change impact depends on type of pollutant Ozone (tropospheric ) contributes to warming (positive radiative forcing) Aerosols offset radiative forcing (producing a cooling effect)
Image Source: IPCC, 2001. Third Assessment Report The Scientific Basis

Source: IPCC Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Summary for Policy Makers

Impacts: Climate change ALSO influences air pollution (short term)

Probability of exceeding O3 limit in Ispra, Italy (Van Dingenen et al., in preparation)

Increased temperatures (warming) increase probability of exceeding air quality guidelines for ozone Direct impact of climate change on particulate matter has not been established
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Policy integration: IPCC supports co-benefits approach

Integrating air pollution abatement and climate change mitigation policies offers potentially large cost reductions compared to treating those policies in isolation

Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

Objectives of the co-benefits approach

Overlap climate change and air pollution
Similar causes (e.g. energy use) Climate change affects air pollution and vice versa Air pollution affects short-term climate

Mitigation measures therefore bring multiple benefits (cobenefits)

Reduced GHG emissions and air pollution Reduced energy use (= increased energy security) Improved public health Reduced traffic congestion and road safety Reduce mitigation costs

Co-benefits: a simple definition

Killing (at least) two birds with one stone
Climate change Air pollution Energy security

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Integrating AQM and Climate Change

AQM Climate Change Mitigation Climate Change Adaptation

Action

Integrated Inventories based on common methodologies

Analysis

GHG Emission inventories

Common weaknesses: Reliable Activity data Emission factors

Air pollutant Emission Inventories

Energy use
Domestic Industrial Power generation

Transport
Road transport Shipping Aviation Rail

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What Project will do

1. Quantify the existing air quality and GHGs data

Identify existing air quality, GHGs and meteorological data Identify main potential air pollution sources Perform dispersion modelling Design and perform screening study

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2. Establish Quality Assurance/Quality Control Procedures

Review and Set up Monitor data quality control

3. Create a database for AQMS, both monitoring data and model calculations

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4. Establish and test Air Quality Management models

Adapt atmospheric dispersion models to Lahore Install GIS system for Lahore Collect population data for exposure estimates

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5. Undertake emission inventories

Prepare data collection procedures Gap analyses and complete emission inventory Collect emission factors to use in the AirQUIS (software developed by NILU) emission models

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6. Perform different model calculations for handling AQMS (Impact Assessment & Air Pollution Control Strategies)
Undertake source assessment Undertake air quality and exposure assessment Conduct impact assessment Conduct cost-benefit analysis

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7. Capacity Building and Awareness raising in AQMS (Undertake institutional building & training)
Undertake needs assessment of partners Develop and conduct training in monitoring and analysis Develop and conduct training in data acquisition and database systems Develop and conduct training in assessment and reporting of air quality data

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8. Disseminate Information
Develop advocacy material Design of reporting system, AQI (Air Quality Index) Establish public web-portal for air quality data

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9. Next Steps
Proposal Development Sharing with Punjab EPD for feedback Review of proposal based on the feedback received. Submission to Planning Commission for funding consideration

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