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2013 Fire Season Considerations and Outlook

SWCC Predictive Services

February 11, 2013

Seasonal Fire Potential Main Factors


1.

Drought

2.
3.

Fine Fuels Condition


Seasonal Temperature & Precipitation

4.
5.

Spring & early Summer Weather Patterns


Monsoon

Fire Season 2013: Drought

Severe+ long term drought ongoing across much of the region

Drought less severe over AZ high country & also southwest TX


Drought outlook calls for drought to persist through the spring

At this point, long term drought impacts are a given in our outlook methodology
Best we can hope for is temporary mitigation of drought impacts with any wetter periods Increased volatility during fire season

Fire Season 2013: Fine Fuels

Overall drought means not a lot of excessive, continuous fine fuels in general. Wetter monsoon in 2012 west of the divide leading to more normal+ fine fuels there, though some compaction along the Mogollon Rim. Similar situation for southwest TX. Fine fuels below average across the eastern plains/rangelands. We expect the fine fuels factor to become highly dynamic this spring!
Area of some fine fuels compaction by snowfall General area where fine fuels availability is seen as near normal or slightly above

Fire Season 2013: DEC-JAN 2012


Temperature & Precipitation

Cold>near normal temps, wetter west & drier east (except SW TX) Little impact on drought or fine fuels growth Main impact some fine fuels compaction in mountain areas Snowpack generally below average

TEMP

PRECIP

Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Fire Season 2013: FEB

Influenced by La Nada (ENSO neutral signal) west coast upper ridge/Great lakes upper trough pattern expected to be persistent Series of slow moving, dynamic systems expected to impact the region Overall dry signal, with fluctuating temperatures possibly averaging slightly below normal Potentially slightly warmer across the east, probably due to downslope wind signal

TEMP

PRECIP

Fire Season 2013: MAR-MAY


Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Slight pattern shift leading to potential higher variability/lower confidence outlook compared to FEB
Overall dry, with tendency for coolness west and warmth east Variable pattern could bring significant moisture into both NW and SE portion of the area, with sustained dryness most likely in between Potential for strong western U.S. trough to be persistent. This would point towards consistently cool across the west and intermittently breezy/windy with downslope winds across the east.

TEMP

PRECIP

Fire Season 2013: Spring & Early Summer Weather Pattern Jet Stream

Split flow jet stream suggested, with storm systems tending to pass north of the region or slow and drop southward towards the Baja.

If this pattern takes shape, periodic breezy/windy periods would occur but periods of more moist & cool conditions could occur across both the northwest and southeast portions of the region. Still overall dry.

L L

Trend towards higher variability/lower confidence pattern through the spring into early summer, based on variance of potential west coast trough. Two most likely solutions offer widely different impacts

Fire Season 2013: Spring & Early Summer Weather Pattern

Northern Track: Drier, cooler overallwarm/dry east with downslope winds. Southern Track: More moist overalldistinctly cooler NW half of area

= Windy/Dry Tendency

= Moisture Transport Tendency

L L

L
H
NORTHERN TRACK

H
SOUTHERN TRACK

Fire Season 2013: Monsoon

Very low confidence this far in advance and considering lack of El Nio or La Nia (a.k.a. La Nada) as influencing factor Some generalities regarding the monsoon:

The hotter the spring is and the earlier winds diminish, the earlier and potentially more robust the monsoon onset tends to be

Cooler, more active and potentially wet spring periods tend to delay or diminish the monsoon

This Year: The sooner we lose the influence of Southern Track systems in the spring, the earlier/better the potential monsoon outcome Note: Much of the eastern half of the area has seen two straight poor/dry monsoon seasons

2013 Fire Season Factors Summary


1.

Drought Severe and ongoing. Increased volatility overall, with generally decreased potential in fine fuel regimes and increased volatility & potential in higher terrain/heavier fuels.

2.

Fine Fuels Condition Normal+ west of the divide and southwest TX, with some areas of compaction in the mountains. Below normal elsewhere.
Seasonal Temperature & Precipitation La Nada influenced trend for overall dry conditions with mixed/fluctuating temperature signal. Greater variability/uncertainty in the spring with some moisture possible into the northwest and southeast portions of the region. Spring & early Summer Weather Pattern Mean western trough with varying northern and southern stream storm tracks offering almost opposing impacts. Potential for a few game changing wet spring storms. Overall, no widespread areas likely to see consistently good or bad conditions for too long. Monsoon La Nada offers minimal insight at this juncture.

3.

4.

5.

2013 Fire Season Potential Summary

Tough to summarize with no large areas of obvious focus at this time.

Less fine fuels across the eastern plains/rangelands means generally lower potential there. Drought will promote never before seen fire behavior and rapid drying responses in heavier fuel after any precipitationcausing generally increased fire potential over the higher terrain area-wide.

A fire potential graphic and more detail and certainty expected with subsequent monthly updates

= Windy/Dry Tendency

= Moisture Transport Tendency

L L

L
H
NORTHERN TRACK

H
SOUTHERN TRACK

Current area of focus

SWCC Predictive Services

END

Contact: Chuck Maxwell, Predictive Services Meteorologist cmaxwell@fs.fed.us, 505-842-3419

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