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Prof. Dr. Khondoker Mokaddem Hossain Director Centre for Disaster and Vulnerability Studies (CDVS) Department of Sociology University of Dhaka Mobile: 01711-383926 Emial: mokaddemdu@yahoo.com cdvs.sociodu@gmail.com
Impacts will be felt in all sectors, esp. on natural resources (Water, Agriculture, Forests and Coastal zones) The magnitude of impacts is likely to be substantial, and in some cases, catastrophic:
Climate variability (especially extreme events) will be the primary driver. 2002 Monsoon failures in India may result in ~1% GDP loss. Recurring floods in Bangladesh (~5% of GDP). Hurricane Mitch (99) set Honduras economic development back 20 years (~75% of GDP).
Adaptation will involve coping with climate shifts and variability in the context of several factors that influence vulnerability.
Alteration of the mean state of climate Increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events Combination of i. and ii. Climate surprises (i.e. emergence of historically unexpected and sudden climate change-induced patterns)
iii. iv.
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 LHD MHD HHD Human Development
Series1
3 0
1975
1980
1985
Total Economic Loss Average loss per Decade Insured Loss Mean Insured Loss per Decade
2 5
2 0
1 5
1 0
Many different factors can make you more or less vulnerable to climate variability
Manage risks at all time scales (weather, climate, extremes, changing climate) in a risk management framework (Climate Risk Management)
Multi-stakeholder approach Involvement of stakeholders in identification and prioritization of
3)
4)
5)
Development of decision-support tools. Includes climate information tailored to user needs at different planning horizons: Weather (3d) for saving lives (DM) Extended weather (10d) for early mitigation decisions (DM) Medium-term forecast (20-25d) for logistics planning (DM) Seasonal (6mos) for resource management planning (agriculture, water) Long-term trends for evaluating how decisions and investments today can withstand future extremes (infrastructure, environment, planning) Institutional engagement and capacity development Active focal point able to bring DRR and CCA communities together Regular dialogues (e.g. Monsoon Forum) Training and demonstration
7) Policy support
8) Receiving feedback to improve climate risk management process and tools 9) Sustaining initiatives by mainstreaming into local and national development processes
Address the integrated climate-society system Start with understanding of vulnerability and focus on resilience Place and context matter Understand decision-making framework to help guide climate information development, delivery and applications Useful and usable information Continuum of climate timescales Scale, timing, format & language appropriate to application and user community Responsive to user needs Incorporates new insights/capabilities
Usable knowledge:
data, models, facts influences on the ground decisions prediction, economic value Uncertainty increases with decreasing scale
Difficulty:
learning to extract useful local info. in the face of uncertainty Not merely an academic exercise, continuous interaction with the real world.
Local
Regional Scale
Global
Predictability
Uncertainty
Being prepared for climate change : If adaptation is the answer, what is the question?
Climate is one input among many:
Multiple stressors
Multiple Stakeholders
Increased climate variability Change in local vulnerability over time due to other factors Changes in operating regimes
Added complexity and coordination Recognition that stakes vary The poorest take the biggest hit
Climate
Other Stressors
Knowledge Generation
Knowledge Integration
Ability to convert raw scientific data into useful predictive information (e.g., probability of rainfall failure)
Ability to integrate predictive climate information with other sector information and local knowledge. Easier said than done! Ability to integrate disparate existing capacities. Find the experts. Scientists and analysts to learn region specific needs, and develop/ modify assessments in response. Two-way street. Public (Bureaucrats, NGOs) and private sector needs to be intimately involved so facilitate feedback to analysts.
Credible and Appropriate Knowledge Institutional adjustment Financial considerations Top-down and bottom up flows
A system that moves information from top-down to bottom up and vice-versa. Is credible with users That links with other efforts.
Capacity Capacity
Institutional Transformation
building and maintaining accountable institutions, and producing an environment of mutual trust between government and the population.
Capacity Building Institution for Climate Change: Some dos and donts
The scope of the Center must be framed in broad terms - else a
lot of narrowly focused capacity could be developed. Not very useful for concerns about economy and human security.
S&T capacity for knowledge generation is only one aspect of the picture. It is critical that capacity building address how this knowledge is Do not reinvent the wheel. Many organizations tend to begin from
used, and how feedback is incorporated. scratch when there is no need to. Leverage and build connections to existing capacity.
Capacity Building Institution for Climate Change: Some dos and donts
Appropriate representation and participation is needed : those with understanding of local issues as well as various stakeholders (especially most vulnerable) expert communities - suitable balance of S&T, social science, public/private (knowledge generation) as well as implementation. Need to think about entrenched interests! Convince Northern institutions to cede monopoly position. Otherwise growth of center may be stunted because of difficulty in attracting talented people, finances, etc.