Four Transitions

Hydraulic (hypothesized)
Primitive→Hierarchical, militarized, local political systems
ca. 5000 BCE
Imperial
→ Imperial secular states
ca. 500 BCE
Westphalian
→ Centralized state power, diverse elite ideology, nationalism
1500-1650
Industrial
→ Industrialization, democratic ideology, compact states
1750-1900
 Features of Early Civilization

Social stratification
* Peasantry
* Urban Artisans
* Warriors
* Priests
* Nobility

Literate bureaucracy

Walled cities

Long-distance trade, diplomatic relations and military

operations
Persian Empire, ca. 500 BCE
Roman Empire, ca 50 CE
Tang Empire 750 CE
Inca Empire 1500 CE
 Imperial vs. Feudal Systems
These form a continuum: imperial systems can be consolidated out of a feudal system (the
Chinese system did this several times) and when an imperial system weakens, local
political/military leaders take control and it becomes a feudal system (this was the fate of
the numerous attempts during medieval Europe to re-establish the Roman Empire).

Imperial Feudal
Structure Centralized; formally Decentralized; based on personal
hierarchical loyalty
Political/military Often separate; imperial Warriors are usually rulers;
stratification government has own bureaucracy is independent
bureaucracy (usually with a religious
affiliation)
Size Very large Very small
Strategic approach Concentrate force using Hold defensive strong points;
mobile professional troops; warfare is seasonal;

Economic base Taxation and imperial Local agricultural production

landowning; significant
long-distance trade
Characteristics of imperial systems possibly
relevant to today

• Military power is concentrated in a single state capable of

operating at long distances but also using local alliances
– Ferguson, Barnet
• Multi-national states
• Economy is dependent on stable long-distance trade
Characteristics of feudal systems possibly
relevant to today
• Persistent militarized non-state actors that can effectively
challenge state military power in marginal areas
• Decentralization of economic power
• Rise of supra-national organizations with significant
political and military power
• Re-emergence of religion as a major political factor
• Rise of non-national identities as the defining
characteristic for individuals
– Corporations
– NGOs
– Religion
– Social movements, for example environment
Significant imports to Europe, 1300-1600
Information technology
· Paper - China
· Moveable type - China
· Compass - China
· Clock - China
· Hindu-Arabic numbers - Middle
East
· Modern accounting - Middle East
· Greek philosophy and medicine -
Middle East
Agriculture
• Intensive rice agriculture - China
· Maize (corn) - Mexico
· Potato - Mexico
· Spaghetti - China
· New luxury foods: tea, tobacco,
chocolate, sugar
·Other
• Spinning wheel - China
· Gunpowder - China
· Black Plague - ??
· Gold and silver - Mexico and
Peru
 Medieval vs. Westphalian Systems

Medieval Westphalian
Source of wealth land trade
Basis of political oath / loyalty residence in territory
obligations
Political leadership military administrative
Source of military heavy cavalry gunpowder
strength
State monopoly on no yes
the use of violence?
Political role of the major minor
church
 Features of Industrial Civilization

Democracy replaces monarchy as dominant ideology

Labor force shifts from agriculture to manufacturing to service

Middle class with literacy, organizational skill, leisure time and

access to information

Efficient taxation and social welfare systems

Global trade, diplomatic relations and military operations

Colonialism and unequal economic development

“Hourglass Hypothesis

Distribution of Power
Political Level

International

National

Local/

Regional

Triangular Diamond Hourglass

20th Century Highlights
1890's Expansion of colonial empires
1900­10 Development of European alliance 
systems
1914­1917 World War I
1929­1939 Great Depression
ca.1935 Failure of League of Nations; rise of 
militarist governments in Germany, Japan
1939­1945 World War II—”total war”
1945 Founding of United Nations
Nuclear weapons
Bretton Woods economic system (1944)
20th Century Highlights, cont.
late 1940s Beginning of Cold War
1950­70 Decolonization
1962 Cuban Missile Crisis—beginning of
US­USSR détente
1970s Global economic instability due to OPEC, 
US  inflation; collapse of Bretton Woods 
system
1989­90 Collapse of communism in Europe
Cold War Historical Highlights
1917 Bolshevik Revolution in Russia
1930's Great Depression: USSR recognized by 
European states
1941 USSR invaded by Germany; 
becomes ally of  USA, UK
1945­49 USSR installs communist regimes in Eastern 
Europe;
Formation of NATO (1949)
1948 Communist victory in China
1950 USSR explodes atomic bomb
1950­51 Korean War
1952­54 US destabilization of leftist regimes in 
Guatemala, Iran
Cold War Historical Highlights
1953 Death of Stalin
1954 French defeated in Vietnam
1955 German rearmament
Warsaw Treaty Organization founded
1956 De­Stalinization
USSR invades Hungary
1961 Bay of Pigs invasion (Cuba)
1962 Cuban Missile Crisis
1965­72 US involvement in Vietnam
Tet Offensive (1968)
1968 USSR invades Czechoslovakia
Cold War Historical Highlights
1968­78 US­USSR détente period
1980­89 USSR involvement in Afghanistan
1980­85 "Second Cold War" under Reagan, assorted 
aging Soviet leaders
1985 Gorbachev comes to power in USSR, begins 
liberalization
1989 Communist regimes in Eastern Europe 
collapse
1991 Soviet Union disbands
Post-Cold War Highlights
• Unipolar military system: complete US dominance in
conventional military technology
• China emerges as major economic power
• Fragmentation of several states: USSR,
Czechoslovakia, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Yugoslavia
• “Failed states” in Somalia, Liberia, Sierra Leone,
Zaire, Afghanistan, former Yugoslavia
• Continued European integration
• Continued economic globalization
• Trans-national terrorist movements and other
militarized non-state actors