Sale Forecast for INDIAN pharmaceutical INDUSTRY

Presented By : Yogita Ghag Batch : SMBA 16

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Introduction
The Indian Pharmaceutical Industry is a success story of providing employment for the millions and ensuring that essential drug at affordable prices are available to the vast population of Indian sub continent. The Indian Pharmaceutical Industry is the developing worlds largest and most developed, raking 4th in the world in terms of production value and 13th in domestic consumption value. India has considerable manufacturing Expertise , Indian companies are among the world leaders in the production of Generics & Vaccines Healthcare has become one of the key priorities of the Key Government & it has launched new policies & Programs to boost local Access & affordability to quality healthcare
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Indian Pharmaceutical Market will Triple Over the Next Decade

Market Size : US$ 6.3 Billion in 2005 to US$ 20Billion in 2015 CAGR 12.3% Indian Pharma Market will Rank 10th in world by 2015 overtaking Brazil, Mexico, South Korea & turkey Incremental Market Growth of US$ 14 Billion US & China US$ 200 Billion & US$23 Billion India's pharmaceutical sector is expected to touch US$ 74 billion in sales by 2020 from the current US$ 11 billion

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Six Trends will influence the Growth of Indian Pharma Market/ DEMAND DRIVERs
Growing & Aging, Sick Population 2) Rapid Growth in Several Chronic Disease 3) Doubling of Disposable Income & the number of Middle class household 4) Penetration in Rural market & Tier 2 Cities 5) 10% of the Indian Market is Likely to be Patent Protected by 2015 6) Expansion of Medical Infrastructure by Government/ Policy maker
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India Pharma Market is Likely to Triple by 2015

Affordability & Medical Infrastructure will drive 75% of Demand Growth

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Demand Drivers : Growing & Aging, Sick Population

By 2020 World Population will be more than 7.6 Billion v By 2020 more than 13% of the population in world will be 60 or older v Indias is facing Epidemiological Changes : The Population is ageing 2028 199 Million People will be 60 or older v Indian Population is Becoming affluent, living longer & increasingly suffering from life style related ailments such as Obesity heart disease stroke cancer & diabetes
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No of people in India suffering from this disease is set to double by 2020 v India has a Largest Pool of Diabetic Patient, more than 41 Million People Suffering vIndia is Home of Diabetic Population : Patient 73.5 Million in 2025 & Total bill of treating them would be about US$ 30 Billion by 2025 3/29/13
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Rapid Growth in Chronic Disease

On back of increasing sales of generic medicines, continued growth in chronic therapies and a greater penetration in rural markets, the domestic pharmaceutical market is expected to register a strong double-digit growth of 13-14 per cent in 2013.
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In India 8% Global drugs market by Volume & only 1% by Value but due the rapidly increasing purchasing power of Indian Consumers India could improve it s Price Volume Mix
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This change in Patient demographics will fuel the demand & which will change the Pattern of Demand
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Doubling of Disposable Income & the number of Middle class household

Real average household income in India has roughly doubled over the past two decade vNearly 140 Million People will move above poverty line during next decade which will increase the spending on basic healthcare & consumption of mass therapy drugs for acute ailments vRising income levels leading to more affordability v27 million household currently in low income category will move up
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Rural Market & Tier 2 Market Contribution

Growth in Indian Pharma Market will be well distributed Across Urban & Rural 70% of Indias Population still in rural areas Population residing in Villages has significantly reduced access to quality treatment & medicines Indian Pharma Companies devising strategies to Penetrate the Rural market. Nearly 45% of market growth in next decade will take place in Tier 2 market Rural market alone will 27% By 2015 the share of Tier 2 will grow 44%

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Patent Cliff

Generics Products will continue to dominate the Indian Market Next few years there will be launch of Patent Protected products which will capture the 10% share of total market by 2015 During year 2010 0-2015 30 to 40 new molecule will be launch globally every year & 75% of these will be introduced in the in the Indian market Around US$ 25 billion worth of Biologics are expected to go off Patent by 2016 this will open route for equivalent generics & enhance the Indian Pharma sector to grow Patented Products are in 5 therapeutic areas : Oncology, Anti infective GastroIntestinal, Neuropsychiatry & Cardiovascular By 2015 this 5 therapies to contribute 60-70 % of total Patented product launch

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Expansion of Medical Infrastructure by Government/ Policy maker

Policy maker will encourage access & innovation 1) Emphasis access through health Insurance 2) Ensure smooth Implementation of Patent Law 3) Support Capability building in R & D 4) Continued emphasis on improving public health resources & infrastructure 5) Adapted Broader View of Healthcare Cost

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CONCLUSION
India will see the largest number of merger and acquisitions (M&As) in the pharmaceutical and healthcare sector The Ministry of Commerce has proposed an ambitious Strategy Plan to double pharmaceutical exports from US$ 10.4 billion in 2009-10 to US$ 25 billion by 2013-14. Gujarat-based small and medium-sized pharmaceutical manufacturers are focusing on export markets, especially to emerging economies such as African and Latin American nations. Small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) based in Gujarat exported pharma products worth Rs 400-Rs 500 crore (US$ 74.63-US$ 93.28 million) in 2011-12. Of the net exports by SMEs, the share of emerging markets is 50-60 per cent, and it is rising yearly by 30-35 per cent, as per an Indian Drug Manufacturers' Association (IDMA) official

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Sources and References

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Report of Task Force, Ministry of Commerce & Industry Analysis of the Indian Pharmaceutical Industry Pricewaterhousecoopers Google

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THANK YOU

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