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Chapter 3 National Income: Measurement and Environment Scanning Veena Keshav Pailwar Professor IMT Nagpur
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Money Value All Final Goods & services Given Country Given period of time
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Households
Firms
Assumptions: 1. Only two agents : Business Firms and Households 2. No Government; No interaction with other countries
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In a state of equilibrium
Factor payments
= Wages + Interest + Rent + Profit = Household Income = Household Expenditure = Value of Final Output
= National Income
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Households
Expenditure on final goods and services Product Markets Leaka ges Saving Financial Markets
Injecti ons
Investment
Taxes
Government
Expenditure
Exports
Leakages
Shrinks the size of the Circular Flow of Income Examples Saving Taxes Imports
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Injections
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Domestic Territory
Political Territory (India) Foreign embassy Other govt offices
Indias GDP = Output produced within Indian Political Territory + Contribution by ships and aircraft + Output of Indian embassy Output of foreign embassy
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Gross Fixed Capital Formation New assets produced domestically Import of new assets Net purchase of second hand assets from abroad
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Total Expenditure= Private Consumption Expenditure (C) + Private Investment Expenditure ( Ip ) + Government Consumption Expenditure (G ) + Government Investment Expenditure (Ig) = C + Ip +Ig + G = C + I+ G = GDP Where I = Ip + Ig
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Total Expenditure= Private Consumption Expenditure (C) + Investment Expenditure ( I ) + Government Consumption Expenditure (G ) + Exports (X) Imports (M) = C + I + G +X - M
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Components of Expenditure
Consumption Expenditure
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UEE 3.1 Drivers of Growth Expenditure Components of the GDP at current market prices
Year China India Private Final Consumption 1990 50.6 66.2 2000 46.2 63.7 2009 35.7 57.3 Government Final Consumption 1990 14.1 11.7 2000 15.8 12.6 2009 13.0 12.3 Gross Domestic Capital Formation 1990 36.1 26.0 2000 35.1 24.3 2009 47.7 35.0 Exports 1990 19.0 7.1 2000 23.3 13.2 2009 3.8* 20.6 Imports 1990 15.6 8.5 2000 20.9 14.2 2009 25.3 Discrepancy 1990 -4.4 -2.4 2000 0.5 0.3 2009 -0.3 0.0 GDP at current mp (billion, in national currency 1990 1867 5696.2 2000 9922 21023.1 2009 34051 62311.7 Pakistan 71.4 75.4 80.5 15.1 8.6 8.1 18.9 17.2 19.0 14.8 13.4 12.8 20.2 14.7 20.4 855.9 3826.1 12739.3 Singapore 45.4 41.9 40.9 9.5 10.9 11.5 35.1 33.2 27.2 177.4 192.4 199.3 167.4 179.6 178.2 0.0 1.1 -0.6 70390.6 162584.1 265057.9 442781 502990 474169 Japan 53.0 56.2 59.6 13.3 16.9 19.7 32.7 25.4 20.4 10.4 11.0 12.6 9.4 9.5 12.3
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The expenditure components help in understanding the ways in which the total GDP is used the sources of demand or drivers of growth
Type of growth Consumption led growth Investment led growth Export led growth
Country China Type of growth pursued Investment and export led growth
India
Pakistan Singapore Japan
Consumption led growth: move towards investment and export led growth
Consumption led growth Export led growth Investment led growth, move towards more balanced growth
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This example also illustrates Computation of value added at each level of production
Equivalence of the three approaches: Expenditure Approach, Income Approach, Value Added Approach
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NNP at Market Price = NNP at Factor Cost + Indirect Taxes less Subsidies
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Gross Domestic Product Gross National Product Net Domestic Product market price factor cost market price factor cost market price factor cost
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Domestic Income = Total income (output) produced within the domestic territory of a country
National Income = Total income (output) produced by the Normal Resident of a country
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GDP Vs GNP
GNP = GDP + Net Factor Income from abroad
Net Factor Income from ROW
Income Earned for Factor Services by the Normal Resident Income Paid for Factor Services from the ROW
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Existence of Indirect Tax: Increases the market price Market Price > Cost of Production (Factor Cost) Market Price = Factor Cost + Indirect Tax Or Market Price Indirect Tax = Factor Cost Existence of Subsidy: Lowers the market price Market Price < Cost of Production (Factor Cost) Market Price + Subsidy = Factor Cost Or Market Price = Factor Cost - Subsidy
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GDP at fc Vs GDP at mp
GDP at fc (estimated at the cost faced by producers) Wage + Interest + Rent + Profit = C + I + G + X M Net Indirect Tax GDP at mp (estimated at the price faced by consumers) C+I +G + X-M = Wage + Interest + Rent + Profit + Net Indirect Tax = Value Added + Net Indirect Taxes
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GDP at fc Vs GDP at mp
GDP at fc = GDP at mp Net Indirect Taxes
GDP at mp = GDP at fc + Net Indirect Taxes Where Net Indirect Taxes = Indirect Taxes - Subsidies
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National Income
NI = NNP at fc
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Depreciation
NNP mp Net Income from Abroad Depreciati on Net Indirect Taxes NDP mp NNP fc Net Income from Abroad NDP fc Net Indirect Taxes
GDP fc
Depreciation
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Relationship between Various Concepts of National Income and Aggregate Personal Income
GNP mp (-)Depreciation NNP mp (-)Indirect Taxes (+)Subsidies NNP fc
PI
PO
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Exclusion of value of personal services rendered to oneself in the national product accounts Omitted market transactions Non-market activities and imputation Changes in the inventories and inventory valuation adjustment Final product- current & constant Rupees
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Examples Farm production and consumption Services yielded by the owner occupied houses Wages paid in kind to farm workers
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Helps in avoiding the overstating or understating the corporate profits and proprietors income and, therefore, national income
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Change in Prices
Changes in Taste
Changes in Consumption Basket Changes in the Quality Emergence of New Goods and Services
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Uses of National Income Estimates Measure of Economic Growth Indicator of Success or Failure of Planning
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Services
Trade, transport & communication; Financial, real estate and business services; Community, social and personal services
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Tertiary
Consists of commodities which are intangibles - Consumer services: Tourism, health care and education - Producer services: Transport and Finance Wealth consuming sector
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1980 1990 2000 2009 1980 1990 2000 2009 1980 1990 2000 2009 China India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Pakistan 30.1 27.1 15.1 10.3 48.5 41.3 45.9 46.3 21.4 31.5 39.0 43.4 38.1 29.3 23.4 17.1 25.9 26.9 26.2 28.2 36.0 43.8 50.5 54.6 24.8 19.4 15.6 15.3 43.4 39.1 45.9 47.6 31.8 41.5 38.5 37.1 14.9 8.7 15.0 4.6 8.3 2.6 41.3 39.9 38.1 36.7 43.7 51.5 57.3 60.7 9.3 41.5 46.8 43.4 43.5 44.9 47.3
29.6 26.0 25.9 21.6 25.0 25.2 23.3 24.3 45.5 48.8 50.7 54.2
Phillipines 25.1 21.9 15.8 14.8 38.8 34.5 32.3 30.2 36.1 43.6 52.0 55.0 Thailand 23.2 12.5 9.0 11.6 28.7 37.2 42.0 43.3 48.1 50.3 49.0 45.1
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UEE 3.4: Structural Shift in the Indian Economy The sectoral composition of the GDP is changing in favour of services In line with the development experience of developed countries However, the share of industrial sector is particularly low: Signifies a phenomenon of leapfrogging
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UEE 3.4: Structural Shift in the Indian Economy Leapfrogging made possible by Advances in communication technology A large supply of trained tnglish speaking personnel
Mismatch between Income and Employment Agriculture Sector The lowest share in the GDP The highest Share in employment Disguised Unemployment
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Non-Linear Higher Inequalities: Growth retarding in poor countries Growth encouraging in advanced developed regions High inequalities and high egalitarianism slows down the growth process
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20 a 0 20
b 50
B 80 100
Lorenz curve
Lorenze Curve Gives a broad picture of inequality The closer the curve is to the 45 degree line the more equal the distribution of income is.
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G = Area Bounded by the 45 degree line and the Lorenz curve Entire area below the 45 degree line
= A / (A +B) Range for G 0G1 G = 0 : Perfect equality in income distribution G = 1 : Complete inequality in income distribution
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R = The value of the maximum vertical distance between the Lorenz curve and the 45 degree line
Value of the index provides an estimate of the income that needs to be transferred from the population above the mean to those below the mean
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Indicator of the Pattern of Consumption and Investment The GDP measured using expenditure approach reveals Consumption Pattern The changes in expenditure pattern reflects the changes in demand pattern Business organizations can use this information to avoid the mismatch between demand and supply
Consumption Expenditure Demand
Investment Expenditure
Productive Capacity
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Convert the GDP or per capita income into a common currency and the price level
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Comparing the expenditure in the two countries using US $ indicates that income in country A is 10 times more than income in country B The expenditure in terms of PPP however indicates that the expenditure in country B is 90% of the expenditure in country A
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47,172.14
1,264.84
10 Netherlands
135 India
40,764.55
3,339.31
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10
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E Trough C Trough
A Trough
Expansion
B
Slowdown
D
Recession E Recovery
A
Recovery
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Peak A
D No. of Years
Growth Rate upturn
No. of Years
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For primarily agrarian economies data on the agriculture GDP can be used for measuring business cycles
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UEE 3.7: Global Economic Scenario: Expansion, Slowdown, Recession and Recovery Sustained global growth of 5% during 2004-07
Outbreak of the US subprime crisis put a break on this high growth phase
Mild Recession in some of the advanced economies in 2008; emerging economies continued to grow at robust rate Failure of the major financial institutions in the USA and other advanced economies resulted in a sharp decline in equity prices and disruption in the flow of trade finance and working capital
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UEE 3.7: Global Economic Scenario: Expansion, Slowdown, Recession and Recovery
World in severe recession in 2009 Emerging markets were also hit hard by a steep drop in equity prices and disruptions in trade and capital flows Unprecedented slowdown of economic activities and trade world over Contraction in some of the advanced economies in 2009
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UEE 3.7: Global Economic Scenario: Expansion, Slowdown, Recession and Recovery
Global recovery in 2010 To overcome the crisis coordinated monetary and credit policies were pursued Conventional measures: lowering interest rate and reserve requirement Unconventional measures: purchases of private sector debt by the central banks Governments interventions: rolling out fiscal stimulus packages Impact of these measures
supported demand Improved financial conditions Lowered uncertainty Bolstered confidence Improved investment World output registered impressive recovery
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