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Economic Environment of Business

Chapter 3 National Income: Measurement and Environment Scanning Veena Keshav Pailwar Professor IMT Nagpur

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Chapter 3 National Income: Measurement and Environment Scanning Main Points

Process of generation of income/ output


Different approaches of measuring total income Various aggregates measuring total output Equivalence of various aggregates Relationship between national and personal income Problems in the measurement of various aggregates Various uses of the concept of national income
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National Income: Definition


National income is the money value of allfinal goods and services produced in a county in a years time.
*

* * *

Money Value All Final Goods & services Given Country Given period of time
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Circular Flow of Income Simple Closed Economy


Factor Markets Factor Income (Wage, Rent, Interest, Profit) Factor Payment (Wage, Rent, Interest, Profit)

Households

Firms

Expenditure on final goods and services Product Markets

Revenue from sale of final goods and service

Assumptions: 1. Only two agents : Business Firms and Households 2. No Government; No interaction with other countries
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In a state of equilibrium
Factor payments
= Wages + Interest + Rent + Profit = Household Income = Household Expenditure = Value of Final Output

= National Income
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Circular Flow of Income More Realistic Open Economy with Government


Factor Markets Factor Income (Wage, Rent, Interest, Profit) Factor Payment (Wage, Rent, Interest, Profit) Firms

Households

Expenditure on final goods and services Product Markets Leaka ges Saving Financial Markets

Revenue from Sale of Final Goods and Service

Injecti ons

Investment

Taxes

Government

Expenditure

Imports Rest of the World

Exports

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Leakages

Shrinks the size of the Circular Flow of Income Examples Saving Taxes Imports
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Injections

Expands the size of the Circular Flow of Income

Examples Government Expenditure Investment Exports


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Output/ Income Generated in an Economy

Output/ Income Produced in the Domestic Territory GDP

Output/ Income Produced by the Normal Residents GNP

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Domestic Territory of a Country


Consists of Territory lying within the political frontiers (including territorial waters) Ships & Aircrafts operated by the residents between countries Embassies, govt. Offices, Consulates & Military Establishments of a country located abroad Excludes All foreign embassies and offices of the International Organizations located in the country

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Domestic Territory
Political Territory (India) Foreign embassy Other govt offices

Political Territory (Other Countries)


Indian embassy

Indias GDP = Output produced within Indian Political Territory + Contribution by ships and aircraft + Output of Indian embassy Output of foreign embassy
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Approaches to Measurement of Aggregate Income

Measurement of National Income


Expenditure Approach Value Added Approach Income Approach or or Net Product Method Factor Income Method

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Investment: Various Concepts


Gross Domestic Capital Formation = Investment = Production (Income) - Consumption Gross Fixed Capital Formation Change in Stock (Inventory)

Investment in Plant, Machinery Building etc.


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Investment: Various Concepts

Gross Fixed Capital Formation New assets produced domestically Import of new assets Net purchase of second hand assets from abroad

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GDP : Expenditure Approach


1. Closed Economy with Govt.

Total Expenditure= Private Consumption Expenditure (C) + Private Investment Expenditure ( Ip ) + Government Consumption Expenditure (G ) + Government Investment Expenditure (Ig) = C + Ip +Ig + G = C + I+ G = GDP Where I = Ip + Ig
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GDP : Expenditure Approach


2. Open Economy with Govt. and Transaction with Other Countries

Total Expenditure= Private Consumption Expenditure (C) + Investment Expenditure ( I ) + Government Consumption Expenditure (G ) + Exports (X) Imports (M) = C + I + G +X - M
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Components of Expenditure

Components of Expenditure (Y)

Consumption Expenditure

Investment Expenditure (I)

Net Foreign Expenditure ( X M)

Private Consumption (C)

Government Consumption (G)

Private Investment (Ip)

Public Investment (Ig)

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UEE 3.1 Drivers of Growth Expenditure Components of the GDP at current market prices
Year China India Private Final Consumption 1990 50.6 66.2 2000 46.2 63.7 2009 35.7 57.3 Government Final Consumption 1990 14.1 11.7 2000 15.8 12.6 2009 13.0 12.3 Gross Domestic Capital Formation 1990 36.1 26.0 2000 35.1 24.3 2009 47.7 35.0 Exports 1990 19.0 7.1 2000 23.3 13.2 2009 3.8* 20.6 Imports 1990 15.6 8.5 2000 20.9 14.2 2009 25.3 Discrepancy 1990 -4.4 -2.4 2000 0.5 0.3 2009 -0.3 0.0 GDP at current mp (billion, in national currency 1990 1867 5696.2 2000 9922 21023.1 2009 34051 62311.7 Pakistan 71.4 75.4 80.5 15.1 8.6 8.1 18.9 17.2 19.0 14.8 13.4 12.8 20.2 14.7 20.4 855.9 3826.1 12739.3 Singapore 45.4 41.9 40.9 9.5 10.9 11.5 35.1 33.2 27.2 177.4 192.4 199.3 167.4 179.6 178.2 0.0 1.1 -0.6 70390.6 162584.1 265057.9 442781 502990 474169 Japan 53.0 56.2 59.6 13.3 16.9 19.7 32.7 25.4 20.4 10.4 11.0 12.6 9.4 9.5 12.3

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UEE 3.1 Drivers of Growth

The expenditure components help in understanding the ways in which the total GDP is used the sources of demand or drivers of growth
Type of growth Consumption led growth Investment led growth Export led growth
Country China Type of growth pursued Investment and export led growth

Type of problem Stagflation Supply glut Higher sensitivity to external shocks

India
Pakistan Singapore Japan

Consumption led growth: move towards investment and export led growth
Consumption led growth Export led growth Investment led growth, move towards more balanced growth
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Factor Income Method


Compensation of Employees = Wages Operating Surplus = Rent + Interest + Profit Mixed Income of Self Employed

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UEE 3.2 : Trends in the Components of Factor Income


In India the factor income is composed of compensation of employees, operating surplus and mixed income of self employed Difficulty in distinguishing the wages from operating surplus in the case of mixed income of self employed: no clear trend in different components of income can be ascertained The share of organized sector in the total factor income is gradually increasing The share of compensation of employees which used to be the dominant component till 2005-06 in the organized sector has decelerated Changing composition of income in favour of operating surplus: Indicates growing inequalities in India Under a progressive taxation system growing inequalities indicate better revenue collection for the government
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NDP at factor cost by Factor Incomes at current prices


Factor Income 1990-00 2004-05 Compensation of Employees All Sectors Organized Unorganized All Sectors Organized Unorganized NDP (at factor Cost) All Sectors Organized Unorganized NDP at factor Cost (Rs crore) 100 40.5 59.5 1605103 100.0 41.0 59.0 2646370 100.0 41.9 58.1 3032583 100.0 42.7 57.3 3516947 100.0 42.4 57.6 4051770 100.0 43.2 56.8 4653419
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2005-06 34.1 22.0 12.0 65.9 19.9 46.1

2006-07 32.7 20.7 12.0 67.3 21.9 45.3

2007-08 34.1 21.6 12.6 65.9 20.8 45.0

2008-09 34.2 21.7 12.6 65.8 21.5 44.2

37.4 24.2 13.2 62.6 16.3 46.3

34.6 22.2 12.4 65.4 18.8 46.6

Operating Surplus/ Mixed Income of Self Employed

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Value Added Approach or Net Product Method


Estimation of Value Added Value Added by the Firm = Value of Final Output - Value of Intermediate Consumption _________________________ Income Generated by the Firm = Factor Income
Value Added by the Firms = Value Added in an economy
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Production of Bread in the Economy An Example


Factor Payment/ Income Producers Farmer Miller Baker Total Output Input Value Added 100 200 350 650 100 200 300 100 100 150 350 Wage 60 40 65 Rent 10 5 15 Interest 5 15 20 Profit 25 40 50 Total 100 100 150 350

This example also illustrates Computation of value added at each level of production

Equivalence of the three approaches: Expenditure Approach, Income Approach, Value Added Approach
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UEE 3.3: Methods of Measuring Sectoral Output


Method Production Approach (Value Added Method) Income Approach Sectors Agriculture & Allied Activities Forestry & Logging Fishing, Mining & Quarrying Registered Manufacturing Unregistered Manufacturing Gas, Electricity & Water Supply Banking & Insurance Transport, Communication & Storage Real Estate & Ownership of Dwellings Trade, Hotels & Restaurants Public Administration & Defense Other Services Construction

Expenditure Approach (Commodity Flow Method)

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Various Concepts of National Income


GDP at Market Price = GDP at Factor Cost + Indirect Taxes less Subsidies GNP at Market Price = GNP at Factor Cost + Indirect Taxes less Subsidies NDP at Market Price = NDP at Factor Cost + Indirect Taxes less Subsidies

NNP at Market Price = NNP at Factor Cost + Indirect Taxes less Subsidies
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Various Concepts of National Income

Gross Domestic Product Gross National Product Net Domestic Product market price factor cost market price factor cost market price factor cost

Net National Product market price factor cost

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Domestic Income Vs National Income

Domestic Income = Total income (output) produced within the domestic territory of a country

National Income = Total income (output) produced by the Normal Resident of a country

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Gross Vs. Net


One of the important components of national output: output of investment goods However, capital stock depreciates over a period of time Part of the investment may just be replacing the wear and tear in the existing capital stock Therefore, the proper estimate of the national income is the one that takes care of depreciation I = Gross Investment I Depreciation (Consumption of Fixed Capital ) = Net Investment
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GDP Vs NDP Gross Product Vs Net Product


GDP = C + I + G + X- M Where I = Gross Investment GDP Depreciation = C + (I Depreciation) + G + X-M = NDP = Net Domestic Product = Wage + Rent + Interest + Profit = Net Value Added

I - Depreciation Net Investment


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GDP Vs GNP
GNP = GDP + Net Factor Income from abroad
Net Factor Income from ROW
Income Earned for Factor Services by the Normal Resident Income Paid for Factor Services from the ROW

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Market Price Vs. Factor Cost


When the government does not Tax and Provide Subsidy The prices faced by the consumers for different commodities are the same as the cost of producing commodities by the producers In the presence of Tax and Subsidy The prices faced by the consumers are different than the total cost of production
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Market Price Vs. Factor Cost

Existence of Indirect Tax: Increases the market price Market Price > Cost of Production (Factor Cost) Market Price = Factor Cost + Indirect Tax Or Market Price Indirect Tax = Factor Cost Existence of Subsidy: Lowers the market price Market Price < Cost of Production (Factor Cost) Market Price + Subsidy = Factor Cost Or Market Price = Factor Cost - Subsidy
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Market Price Vs. Factor Cost


Existence of Indirect Tax and Subsidy Market Price Cost of Production (Factor Cost) Market Price = Factor Cost + Indirect Tax - Subsidy Or Market Price Net Indirect Tax = Factor Cost

Where Indirect Tax Subsidy = Net Indirect Tax


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GDP at fc Vs GDP at mp
GDP at fc (estimated at the cost faced by producers) Wage + Interest + Rent + Profit = C + I + G + X M Net Indirect Tax GDP at mp (estimated at the price faced by consumers) C+I +G + X-M = Wage + Interest + Rent + Profit + Net Indirect Tax = Value Added + Net Indirect Taxes
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GDP at fc Vs GDP at mp
GDP at fc = GDP at mp Net Indirect Taxes
GDP at mp = GDP at fc + Net Indirect Taxes Where Net Indirect Taxes = Indirect Taxes - Subsidies
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National Income
NI = NNP at fc

National Income = Net National Product at factor cost

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Relationship among Eight Variants of National Product Aggregates


GNP mp

Depreciation

Net Income from Abroad


GDP mp

Net Indirect Taxes

NNP mp Net Income from Abroad Depreciati on Net Indirect Taxes NDP mp NNP fc Net Income from Abroad NDP fc Net Indirect Taxes

GNP fc Net Income from Abroad Depreciatio n

GDP fc

Net Indirect Taxes

Depreciation

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Relationship between Various Concepts of National Income and Aggregate Personal Income
GNP mp (-)Depreciation NNP mp (-)Indirect Taxes (+)Subsidies NNP fc

PI

(-)Corporate Taxes (-)Undistributed Profit (+)Transfer Payments


(-)Personal Income Taxes

DPI (-) Personal Savings

PO
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Problems in the Measurement of National Income

Exclusion of value of personal services rendered to oneself in the national product accounts Omitted market transactions Non-market activities and imputation Changes in the inventories and inventory valuation adjustment Final product- current & constant Rupees
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Non Market Activities and Imputations


Examples Farm production and consumption Services yielded by the owner occupied houses Wages paid in kind to farm workers

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Non-Market Activities and Imputations Difficulties in Imputations


Valuation : at the cost of production or at market price Market price may vary if all the supply is marketed Quality of the retained output or payment in kind may vary Equivalent goods and services may not be available in the market: e.g.: police and defence
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Changes in Inventories & Inventory Valuation Adjustment Difficulties in Valuation

Official Figures: value the inventories at average price


Firms: value the inventories at the book value Difference: is adjusted as inventory valuation adjustment

Helps in avoiding the overstating or understating the corporate profits and proprietors income and, therefore, national income
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Inter-temporal and Inter-Spatial Comparison of National Income

Change in Prices

Changes in Taste
Changes in Consumption Basket Changes in the Quality Emergence of New Goods and Services
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Uses of National Income Estimates Measure of Economic Growth Indicator of Success or Failure of Planning

Indicator of Structural Change


Measure of Income Inequalities Indicator of the Pattern of Consumption and Investment Measure of International and Spatial Comparisons Measure of Business Cycles
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Measure of Economic Growth


National Income at Constant Prices

Indicates the economic growth of a country in real terms

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Indicator of Success or Failure of Planning


National Income at Constant Prices

Achievements Vis a Vis the Targets: indicate the success of planning

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Indicator of Structural Changes


Sectors Classification I Primary Secondary Tertiary Classification II Agriculture Industry Agriculture and allied (forestry, logging and fishing) Manufacturing; mining & quarrying; electricity, gas & water supply; construction Agriculture (cultivation of crops, livestock and animal husbandry); forestry, logging & fishing; mining & quarrying Manufacturing; electricity, gas & water supply; construction Trade, transport & communication; Financial, real estate and business services; Community, social and personal services Activities Covered

Services

Trade, transport & communication; Financial, real estate and business services; Community, social and personal services
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Indicator of Structural Changes


Sectors Primary Characteristics Many of the products of this sector are used as inputs in the secondary sector Wealth creating sectors Secondary Most of the products are finished products consumed by the households or other business organizations Wealth creating sectors

Tertiary

Consists of commodities which are intangibles - Consumer services: Tourism, health care and education - Producer services: Transport and Finance Wealth consuming sector

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Indicator of Structural Changes


Dominant Sector/ Stage of Development Primary/ Agriculture Early Stage of Development Secondary/ Industry Second (Middle) Stage of Development Characteristics
Value addition low: low growth rate Low level of income restricts the demand pattern: Major proportion of the income is spent on agriculture products Significant transfer of resources from agriculture to industrial sector Value addition higher than the first stage of development Demand pattern becomes more diversified: Demand for industrial products increases Countries more open to trade & competition Value addition is the highest in services Displaces unskilled labour: More employment opportunities for the skilled labour
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Tertiary/Services Highest level of development

Indicator of Structural Changes


Phenomenon of Leapfrogging in Growth Process Surpassing the middle stage of growth Moving directly from an agrarian economy to a service oriented economy
Underdeveloped physical infrastructure and industrial sector may constraint the sustainable growth
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UEE 3.4: Structural Shift in the Indian Economy


Country Agriculture Industry Services

1980 1990 2000 2009 1980 1990 2000 2009 1980 1990 2000 2009 China India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Pakistan 30.1 27.1 15.1 10.3 48.5 41.3 45.9 46.3 21.4 31.5 39.0 43.4 38.1 29.3 23.4 17.1 25.9 26.9 26.2 28.2 36.0 43.8 50.5 54.6 24.8 19.4 15.6 15.3 43.4 39.1 45.9 47.6 31.8 41.5 38.5 37.1 14.9 8.7 15.0 4.6 8.3 2.6 41.3 39.9 38.1 36.7 43.7 51.5 57.3 60.7 9.3 41.5 46.8 43.4 43.5 44.9 47.3

29.6 26.0 25.9 21.6 25.0 25.2 23.3 24.3 45.5 48.8 50.7 54.2

Phillipines 25.1 21.9 15.8 14.8 38.8 34.5 32.3 30.2 36.1 43.6 52.0 55.0 Thailand 23.2 12.5 9.0 11.6 28.7 37.2 42.0 43.3 48.1 50.3 49.0 45.1
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UEE 3.4: Structural Shift in the Indian Economy The sectoral composition of the GDP is changing in favour of services In line with the development experience of developed countries However, the share of industrial sector is particularly low: Signifies a phenomenon of leapfrogging

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UEE 3.4: Structural Shift in the Indian Economy Leapfrogging made possible by Advances in communication technology A large supply of trained tnglish speaking personnel

Reforms: especially in the financial sector


Deregulation of the services sector Privatization Opening up of the economy to FDI
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UEE 3.4: Structural Shift in the Indian Economy

Mismatch between Income and Employment Agriculture Sector The lowest share in the GDP The highest Share in employment Disguised Unemployment
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Measure of Income Inequalities


Relationship between income inequalities and growth

Non-Linear Higher Inequalities: Growth retarding in poor countries Growth encouraging in advanced developed regions High inequalities and high egalitarianism slows down the growth process
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Measures of Income Inequalities


Lorenz Curve Gini Coefficient Robin Hood Index Quantile Ratio

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Measures of Income Inequalities


Lorenz Curve
Cumulative Percentage of Income 100 80 0

50

Line of absolute equality


A c

20 a 0 20

b 50

B 80 100

Lorenz curve

Cumulative Percentage of Population

Lorenze Curve Gives a broad picture of inequality The closer the curve is to the 45 degree line the more equal the distribution of income is.
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Measures of Income Inequalities


Gini Co-efficient (G)

G = Area Bounded by the 45 degree line and the Lorenz curve Entire area below the 45 degree line
= A / (A +B) Range for G 0G1 G = 0 : Perfect equality in income distribution G = 1 : Complete inequality in income distribution
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Measures of Income Inequalities


Robin Hood Index ( R )

R = The value of the maximum vertical distance between the Lorenz curve and the 45 degree line

Value of the index provides an estimate of the income that needs to be transferred from the population above the mean to those below the mean

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Measures of Income Inequalities


Quantile Ratio ( Q ) Persons are ranked on the basis of income from the lowest to the highest Divided into equally sized groups Distribution of population First Quantile 5 equally sized groups: Quantile = First Two Deciles 10 equally sized groups: Deciles = First 20 Percentiles 100 equally sized groups: percentiles
One quantile is compared with another to estimate the level of inequality, i.e., Q (P2)/ Q(P1) where P1 & P2 are percentile
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Indicator of the Pattern of Consumption and Investment The GDP measured using expenditure approach reveals Consumption Pattern The changes in expenditure pattern reflects the changes in demand pattern Business organizations can use this information to avoid the mismatch between demand and supply
Consumption Expenditure Demand

Investment Expenditure

Productive Capacity
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Supply in the long run


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International and Spatial Comparisons


Problems in Inter Spatial Comparison
NI of different countries expressed in different currencies

Different countries experience different degrees of price levels


Countries vary in terms of population size

Accounting for the Difference


Population Variation: Per Capita Income Currency Variation: Use of Common Currency

Price Level Variation: Purchasing Power Parity


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International and Spatial Comparisons


Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
Process
Construct a common representative basket of goods and services Collect the prices of commodities in the selected basket Estimate un-weighted bilateral price ratios (parities) Aggregate un-weighted parities using the expenditure data

Convert the GDP or per capita income into a common currency and the price level
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International and Spatial Comparisons


Per Capita Income using PPP An Illustration
Price A Food Cloth $ 50 $ 100 B Rs 300 Rs 500 A 80 60 Units B 100 40 Expenditure A $ 4000 $ 6000 $10000 B Rs 30000 Rs 20000 Rs 50000 Price Ratio $/Rs 50/300 100/500 Expenditure in Us $ B Rs30000x($50/300) = $ 5000 Rs20000x($100/500 ) = $ 4000 = $ 9000

Comparing the expenditure in the two countries using US $ indicates that income in country A is 10 times more than income in country B The expenditure in terms of PPP however indicates that the expenditure in country B is 90% of the expenditure in country A
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UEE 3.6: Richest Nations in the World 2010


GDP Per Capita ($) Country Luxembourg Norway Qatar Switzerland United Arab Emirates Denmark Australia Sweden United States 2010 108,831.70 84,443.63 76,167.85 67,246.00 59,716.85 56,147.14 55,589.55 48,874.61 47,283.63 Rank 1 Qatar 2 Luxembourg 3 Singapore 4 Norway 5 Brunei Darussalam 6 United Arab Emirates 7 United States 8 Hong Kong SAR 9 Switzerland GDP Per Capita (PPP) ($) Country 2010 88,558.83 81,383.26 56,521.73 52,012.51 48,891.67 48,820.86 47,283.63 45,736.27 41,663.05 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Netherlands Memo India

47,172.14
1,264.84

10 Netherlands
135 India

40,764.55
3,339.31
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10
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Environment Scanning & National Income


Business Cycles
Level of Economic Activity / Level of National Income Peak D Peak B

E Trough C Trough

A Trough

One Business Cycle


Contraction Expansion No. of Years
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Phases in Growth Cycles

Rate of growth of national income

Expansion
B

Slowdown
D

Recession E Recovery
A

Recovery

Depression No. of Years

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Growth Rate Cycles Vs Business Cycles


Growth Rate of Economic Activities 0
Expansion Growth Rate Downturn

Peak A

E Growth Rate Cycles B Trough C


Recession

D No. of Years
Growth Rate upturn

Business Cycles Level of Economic Activities G Expansion F Contraction Peak H I J Trough

No. of Years

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Measurement of Business Cycles


Need high frequency data Need data on the variables which represent overall picture of an economy In the absence of high frequency data on national income movements in sectoral output data are taken as the representative For the countries dependent on industrial activities the IIP can be taken as the representative

For primarily agrarian economies data on the agriculture GDP can be used for measuring business cycles
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UEE 3.7: Global Economic Scenario: Expansion, Slowdown, Recession and Recovery Sustained global growth of 5% during 2004-07

Outbreak of the US subprime crisis put a break on this high growth phase
Mild Recession in some of the advanced economies in 2008; emerging economies continued to grow at robust rate Failure of the major financial institutions in the USA and other advanced economies resulted in a sharp decline in equity prices and disruption in the flow of trade finance and working capital
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UEE 3.7: Global Economic Scenario: Expansion, Slowdown, Recession and Recovery

World in severe recession in 2009 Emerging markets were also hit hard by a steep drop in equity prices and disruptions in trade and capital flows Unprecedented slowdown of economic activities and trade world over Contraction in some of the advanced economies in 2009
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UEE 3.7: Global Economic Scenario: Expansion, Slowdown, Recession and Recovery
Global recovery in 2010 To overcome the crisis coordinated monetary and credit policies were pursued Conventional measures: lowering interest rate and reserve requirement Unconventional measures: purchases of private sector debt by the central banks Governments interventions: rolling out fiscal stimulus packages Impact of these measures
supported demand Improved financial conditions Lowered uncertainty Bolstered confidence Improved investment World output registered impressive recovery

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