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Chapter 2

The Basics of Supply and Demand

Topics to Be Discussed

Supply and Demand

The Market Mechanism


Changes in Market Equilibrium

Elasticities of Supply and Demand


Short-Run Versus Long-Run Elasticities

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 2

Topics to Be Discussed

Understanding and Predicting the Effects of Changing Market Conditions Effects of Government Intervention--Price Controls

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 3

Introduction

Applications of Supply and Demand Analysis

Understanding and predicting how world economic conditions affect market price and production Analyzing the impact of government price controls, minimum wages, price supports, and production incentives

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 4

Introduction

Applications of Supply and Demand Analysis

Analyzing how taxes, subsidies, and import restrictions affect consumers and producers

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 5

Supply and Demand

The Supply Curve

The supply curve shows how much of a good producers are willing to sell at a given price, holding constant other factors that might affect quantity supplied

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 6

Supply and Demand

The Supply Curve

This price-quantity relationship can be shown by the equation:

Qs QS ( P )

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 7

Supply and Demand


Price ($ per unit) Vertical axis measures price (P) received per unit in dollars

The Supply Curve Graphically

Horizontal axis measures quantity (Q) supplied in number of units per time period Quantity Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 8

Supply and Demand


Price ($ per unit)

The Supply Curve Graphically

P2 P1
The supply curve slopes upward demonstrating that at higher prices firms will increase output

Q1

Q2

Quantity Slide 9

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Supply and Demand

Non-price Determining Variables of Supply

Costs of Production

Labor

Capital
Raw Materials

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 10

Supply and Demand


Change in Supply

The cost of raw materials falls


At P1, produce Q2 At P2, produce Q1 P1

Supply curve shifts right to S


More produced at any price on S than on S

P2

Q0
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Q1

Q2
Slide 11

Supply and Demand

Supply - A Review

Supply is determined by non-price supplydetermining variables as such as the cost of labor, capital, and raw materials. Changes in supply are shown by shifting the entire supply curve.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 12

Supply and Demand

Supply - A Review

Changes in quantity supplied are shown by movements along the supply curve and are caused by a change in the price of the product.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 13

Supply and Demand

The Demand Curve

The demand curve shows how much of a good consumers are willing to buy as the price per unit changes holding non-price factors constant.
This price-quantity relationship can be shown by the equation:

QD QD(P)
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 14

Supply and Demand


Price ($ per unit)
Vertical axis measures price (P) paid per unit in dollars

Horizontal axis measures quantity (Q) demanded in number of units per time period

Quantity
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 15

Supply and Demand


Price ($ per unit) The demand curve slopes downward demonstrating that consumers are willing to buy more at a lower price as the product becomes relatively cheaper and the consumers real income increases.

D Quantity
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 16

Supply and Demand

Non-price Determining Variables of Demand


Income Consumer Tastes

Price of Related Goods


Substitutes Complements

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 17

Supply and Demand


Change in Demand

Income Increases

P P2

At P1, produce Q2 At P2, produce Q1

Demand Curve shifts right P1 More purchased at any price on D than on D

Q0
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Q1

Q2
Slide 18

Shifts in Supply and Demand

Demand - A Review

Demand is determined by non-price demand-determining variables, such as, income, price of related goods, and tastes. Changes in demand are shown by shifting the entire demand curve.
Changes in quantity demanded are shown by movements along the demand curve.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 19

The Market Mechanism


Price ($ per unit)

S
The curves intersect at equilibrium, or marketclearing, price. At P0 the quantity supplied is equal to the quantity demanded at Q0 .

P0

Q0
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Quantity
Slide 20

The Market Mechanism

Characteristics of the equilibrium or market clearing price:


QD No

= QS shortage

No
No

excess supply
pressure on the price to change

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 21

The Market Mechanism


Price ($ per unit)

Surplus
P1 P0
If price is above equilibrium:

1) Price is above the market clearing price 2) Qs > Qd 3) Price falls to the market-clearing price

Q0
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Quantity
Slide 22

The Market Mechanism


A Surplus

The market price is above equilibrium


There is excess supply Producers lower prices Quantity demanded increases and quantity supplied decreases The market continues to adjust until the equilibrium price is reached.
Slide 23

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

The Market Mechanism


Price ($ per unit)

Surplus
P1 P2
Assume the price is P1 , then: 1) Qs : Q1 > Qd : Q2 2) Excess supply is Q1:Q2. 3) Producers lower price. 4) Quantity supplied decreases and quantity demanded increases. 5) Equilibrium at P2Q3

D Q1 Q3 Q2 Quantity
Slide 24

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

The Market Mechanism


Surplus - Review:

The market price is above equilibrium:

There is excess supply


Producers lower prices Quantity demanded increases and quantity supplied decreases The market continues to adjust until the equilibrium price is reached
Slide 25

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

The Market Mechanism


Price ($ per unit)

P3

P2

Assume the price is P2 , then: 1) Qd : Q2 > Qs : Q1 2) Shortage is Q1:Q2. 3) Producers raise price. 4) Quantity supplied increases and quantity demanded decreases. 5) Equilibrium at P3, Q3

Shortage
Q1 Q3

D
Q2 Quantity
Slide 26

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

The Market Mechanism


Shortage

The market price is below equilibrium:


There is a shortage Producers raise prices Quantity demanded decreases and quantity supplied increases The market continues to adjust until the new equilibrium price is reached.
Slide 27

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

The Market Mechanism

Market Mechanism Summary

1) Supply and demand interact to determine the market-clearing price.


2) When not in equilibrium, the market will adjust to alleviate a shortage or surplus and return the market to equilibrium.

3) Markets must be competitive for the mechanism to be efficient.


Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 28

Changes In Market Equilibrium

Equilibrium prices are determined by the relative level of supply and demand. Supply and demand are determined by particular values of supply and demand determining variables. Changes in any one or combination of these variables can cause a change in the equilibrium price and/or quantity.
Slide 29

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Changes In Market Equilibrium

Raw material prices fall

S shifts to S
Surplus @ P1 of Q 1, Q 2 Equilibrium @ P3, Q3
P1 P3

Q1 Q3 Q2
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 30

Changes In Market Equilibrium

Income Increases

Demand shifts to D1
Shortage @ P1 of Q1, Q2 P3 Equilibrium @ P3, Q3
P1

Q2 Q1 Q3
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 31

Changes In Market Equilibrium

Income Increases & raw material prices fall

The increase in D is greater than the increase in S Equilibrium price and quantity increase to P2, Q2

P2 P1

Q1
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Q2
Slide 32

Shifts in Supply and Demand

When supply and demand change simultaneously, the impact on the equilibrium price and quantity is determined by:
1) The relative size and direction of the change
2) The shape of the supply and demand models

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 33

The Price of Eggs and the Price of a College Education Revisited

The real price of eggs fell 59% from 1970 to 1998. Supply increased due to the increased mechanization of poultry farming and the reduced cost of production. Demand decreased due to the increasing consumer concern over the health and cholesterol consequences of eating eggs.
Slide 34

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Market for Eggs


P
(1970
dollars per dozen)

S1970

Prices fell until a new equilibrium was reached at $0.26 and a quantity of 5,300 million dozen

S1998
$0.61

$0.26

D1970
5,300 5,500 Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

D1998 Q (million dozens)


Slide 35

The Price of a College Education

The real price of a college education rose 68 percent from 1970 to 1995. Supply decreased due to higher costs of equipping and maintaining modern classrooms, laboratories and libraries, and higher faculty salaries. Demand increased due a larger percentage of a larger number of high school graduates attending college.
Slide 36

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Market for a College Education


P
(annual cost
in 1970 dollars)

S1995

Prices rose until a new equilibrium was reached at $4,573 and a quantity of 12.3 million students

$4,248

S1970

$2,530

D1970
8.6 14.9

D1995

Q (millions of students enrolled))


Slide 37

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Changes In Market Equilibrium

Wage Inequality in the United States


Real

after-tax income from 1977 to 1999:

Rose 40+% for the top 20% of the income distribution Fell 10+% for the bottom 20%

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 38

Changes In Market Equilibrium

Question
Why

did the income distribution become more unequal for 1977 to 1999?

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 39

Consumption & Price of Copper 1880-1998

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 40

The Long-Run Behavior of Natural Resource Prices

Observations

Consumption of copper has increased about a hundred fold from 1880 through 1998 indicating a large increase in demand. The real price for copper has remained relatively constant.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 41

Changes In Market Equilibrium


Price

S1900

S1950

S1998

Long-Run Path of Price and Consumption

D1900

D1950

D1998
Slide 42

Quantity
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Changes In Market Equilibrium

Conclusion

Decreases in the costs of production have increased the supply by more than enough to offset the increase in demand.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 43

Changes In Market Equilibrium

Observation

To accurately predict the future price of a product or service, it is necessary to consider the potential change in supply and demand. 1970 predictions for oil and other minerals proved incorrect because they only considered the demand side of the market.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 44

Elasticities of Supply and Demand

Generally, elasticity is a measure of the sensitivity of one variable to another. It tells us the percentage change in one variable in response to a one percent change in another variable.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 45

Elasticities of Supply and Demand


Price Elasticity of Demand

Measures the sensitivity of quantity demanded to price changes.

It measures the percentage change in the quantity demanded for a good or service that results from a one percent change in the price.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 46

Elasticities of Supply and Demand

The price elasticity of demand is:

EP (%Q)/(%P)

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 47

Elasticities of Supply and Demand


Price Elasticity of Demand

The percentage change in a variable is the absolute change in the variable divided by the original level of the variable.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 48

Elasticities of Supply and Demand


Price Elasticity of Demand

So the price elasticity of demand is also:

Q/Q P Q EP P/P Q P

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 49

Elasticities of Supply and Demand

Interpreting Price Elasticity of Demand Values


1) Because of the inverse relationship between P and Q; EP is negative. 2) If EP > 1, the percent change in quantity is greater than the percent change in price. We say the demand is price elastic.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 50

Elasticities of Supply and Demand

Interpreting Price Elasticity of Demand Values 3) If EP < 1, the percent change in quantity is less than the percent change in price. We say the demand is price inelastic.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 51

Elasticities of Supply and Demand


Price Elasticity of Demand

The primary determinant of price elasticity of demand is the availability of substitutes.

Many substitutes demand is price elastic


Few substitutes demand is price inelastic

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 52

Price Elasticities of Demand


Price 4 Q = 8 - 2P

EP -

The lower portion of a downward sloping demand curve is less elastic than the upper portion.

Ep = -1 2 Linear Demand Curve Q = a - bP Q = 8 - 2P Ep = 0 4


Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Q
Slide 53

Price Elasticities of Demand


Price

Infinitely Elastic Demand

P*

EP -
Quantity
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 54

Price Elasticities of Demand


Completely Inelastic Demand
Price

EP 0
Q*
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Quantity
Slide 55

Elasticities of Supply and Demand


Other Demand Elasticities

Income elasticity of demand measures the percentage change in quantity demanded resulting from a one percent change in income.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 56

Elasticities of Supply and Demand


Other Demand Elasticities

The income elasticity of demand is:

Q/Q I Q EI I/I Q I
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 57

Elasticities of Supply and Demand


Other Demand Elasticities

Cross elasticity of demand measures the percentage change in the quantity demanded of one good that results from a one percent change in the price of another good. For example consider the substitute goods, butter and margarine.
Slide 58

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Elasticities of Supply and Demand

The cross elasticity of demand is:

Qb/Qb Pm Qb EQbPm Pm/Pm Qb Pm

The cross elasticity for substitutes is positive, while that for complements is negative.
Slide 59

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Elasticities of Supply and Demand


Elasticities of Supply

Price elasticity of supply measures the percentage change in quantity supplied resulting from a 1 percent change in price. The elasticity is usually positive because price and quantity supplied are directly related.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 60

Elasticities of Supply and Demand


Elasticities of Supply

We can refer to elasticity of supply with respect to interest rates, wage rates, and the cost of raw materials.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 61

Elasticities of Supply and Demand


The Market for Wheat

1981 Supply Curve for Wheat


QS

= 1,800 + 240P

1981 Demand Curve for Wheat


QD

= 3,550 - 266P

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 62

Elasticities of Supply and Demand


The Market for Wheat

Equilibrium: Q S = Q D

1,800 240P 3,550 266P 506P 1,750

P 3.46 / bushel
Q 1,800 (240)(3.46) 2,630 million bushels
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 63

Elasticities of Supply and Demand


The Market for Wheat

P QD 3.46 E (2.66 ) .035 Inelastic Q P 2,630


D P

P QS 3.46 E (2.40 ) .032 Inelastic Q P 2,630


S P
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 64

Elasticities of Supply and Demand


The Market for Wheat

Assume the price of wheat is $4.00/bushel


QD 3,550 (266 )( 4.00 ) 2,486

4.00 Q (266 ) 0.43 2,486


D P

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 65

Changes in the Market: 1981-1998


The Market for Wheat

Supply (Qs) Demand (QD)


1981 1800 + 240P 3550 - 266P

Equilibrium Price (Qs = QD)


1800+240P = 3550-266P 506P = 1750 P1981 = $3.46/bushel 1,944+207P = 3,244-283P P1998 = $2.65/bushel

1998

1,944 + 207P

3,244 - 283P

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 66

Short-Run Versus Long-Run Elasticities


Demand

Price elasticity of demand varies with the amount of time consumers have to respond to a price.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 67

Short-Run Versus Long-Run Elasticities


Demand

Most goods and services:

Short-run elasticity is less than long-run elasticity. (e.g. gasoline, Drs.)

Other Goods (durables):

Short-run elasticity is greater than long-run elasticity (e.g. automobiles)

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 68

Gasoline: Short-Run and Long-Run Demand Curves


Price

DSR

People tend to drive smaller and more fuel efficient cars in the long-run

Gasoline

DLR

Quantity
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 69

Automobiles: Short-Run and Long-Run Demand Curves


Price

DLR
People may put off immediate consumption, but eventually older cars must be replaced.

Automobiles

DSR

Quantity
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 70

Short-Run Versus Long-Run Elasticities


Income Elasticities

Income elasticity also varies with the amount of time consumers have to respond to an income change.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 71

Short-Run Versus Long-Run Elasticities


Income Elasticities

Most goods and services:

Income elasticity is greater in the long-run than in the short run.


Higher

incomes may be converted into bigger cars so the income elasticity of demand for gasoline increases with time.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 72

Short-Run Versus Long-Run Elasticities


Income Elasticities

Other Goods (durables):

Income elasticity is less in the long-run than in the short-run.


Originally,

consumers will want to hold

more cars.
Later,

purchases will only to be to replace old cars.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 73

Short-Run Versus Long-Run Elasticities


The Demand for Gasoline and Automobiles

Gasoline and automobiles are complementary goods.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 74

Short-Run Versus Long-Run Elasticities


The Demand for Gasoline and Automobiles

Gasoline

The long-run price and income elasticities are larger than the short-run elasticities.

Automobiles

The long-run price and income elasticities are smaller than the short-run elasticities.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 75

Short-Run Versus Long-Run Elasticities


The Demand for Gasoline

Years Following Price or Income Change Elasticity 1 2 3 4 5 6

Price
Income

-0.11 -0.22 -0.32 -0.49 -0.82 -1.17


0.07 0.13 0.20 0.32 0.54 0.78

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 76

Short-Run Versus Long-Run Elasticities


The Demand for Automobiles

Years Following Price or Income Change


Elasticity Price Income 1 2 3 4 5 6

-1.20 -0.93 -0.75 -0.55 -0.42 -0.40 3.00 2.33 1.88 1.38 1.02 1.00

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 77

Short-Run Versus Long-Run Elasticities


The Demand for Gasoline and Automobiles

Data Explains:

1) Why the price of oil did not continue to rise above $30/barrel even though it rose very rapidly in the early 1970s. 2) Why automobile sales are so sensitive to the business cycle.
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 78

Short-Run Versus Long-Run Elasticities


Supply

Most goods and services:

Long-run price elasticity of supply is greater than short-run price elasticity of supply.

Other Goods (durables, recyclables):

Long-run price elasticity of supply is less than short-run price elasticity of supply

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 79

Short-Run Versus Long-Run Elasticities


Primary Copper: Short-Run and Long-Run Supply Curves Price

SSR SLR
Due to limited capacity, firms are limited by output constraints in the short-run. In the long-run, they can expand.

Quantity
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 80

Short-Run Versus Long-Run Elasticities


Secondary Copper: Short-Run and Long-Run Supply Curves Price

SLR

SSR

Price increases provide an incentive to convert scrap copper into new supply. In the long-run, this stock of scrap copper begins to fall.

Quantity
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 81

Short-Run Versus Long-Run Elasticities


Supply of Copper

Price Elasticity of:

Short-run

Long-run

Primary supply
Secondary supply Total supply

0.20
0.43 0.25

1.60
0.31 1.50

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 82

Short-Run Versus Long-Run Elasticities


Weather in Brazil and the price of Coffee in New York

Elasticity explains why coffee prices are very volatile.

Due to the differences in supply elasticity in the long-run and short run.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 83

Price of Brazilian Coffee

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 84

Short-Run Versus Long-Run Elasticities


Coffee
Price

S
P1

S
A freeze or drought decreases the supply of coffee

P0
Short-Run 1) Supply is completely inelastic 2) Demand is relatively inelastic 3) Very large change in price

Q1

Q0

Quantity
Slide 85

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Short-Run Versus Long-Run Elasticities


Coffee
Price

P2 P0
Intermediate-Run 1) Supply and demand are more elastic 2) Price falls back to P2. 3) Quantity falls to Q2

D Q2 Q0
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Quantity
Slide 86

Short-Run Versus Long-Run Elasticities


Coffee
Price
Long-Run 1) Supply is extremely elastic. 2) Price falls back to P0. 3) Quantity increase to Q0.

P0

D
Q0
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Quantity
Slide 87

Understanding and Predicting the Effects of Changing Market Conditions

First, we must learn how to fit linear demand and supply curves to market data. Then we can determine numerically how a change in a variable will cause supply or demand to shift and thereby affect the market price and quantity.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 88

Understanding and Predicting the Effects of Changing Market Conditions

Available Data

Equilibrium Price, P*
Equilibrium Quantity, Q* Price elasticity of supply, ES, and demand, ED.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 89

Understanding and Predicting the Effects of Changing Market Conditions


Price
a/b

Supply: Q = c + dP

P*

ED = -bP*/Q* ES = dP*/Q*

-c/d

Demand: Q = a - bP Q*
Quantity
Slide 90

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Understanding and Predicting the Effects of Changing Market Conditions

Lets begin with the equations for supply and demand: Demand: QD = a - bP Supply: QS = c + dP

We must choose numbers for a, b, c, and d.


Slide 91

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Understanding and Predicting the Effects of Changing Market Conditions

Step 1:

Recall:

E (P/Q)( Q/ P)

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 92

Understanding and Predicting the Effects of Changing Market Conditions

For linear demand curves, the change in quantity divided by the change in price is constant (equal to the slope of the curve).

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 93

Understanding and Predicting the Effects of Changing Market Conditions

Substituting the slopes for each into the formula for elasticity, we get:

ED - b(P * /Q*)

ES d(P * /Q*)
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 94

Understanding and Predicting the Effects of Changing Market Conditions

Since we will have values for ED, ES, P*, and Q*, we can solve for b & d, and a & c.

QD a bP
*

QS c dP
*
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 95

Understanding and Predicting the Effects of Changing Market Conditions

Deriving the long-run supply and demand for copper:

The relevant data are:

Q* = 7.5 mmt/yr.

P* = 75 cents/pound
ES = 1.6 ED = -0.8

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 96

Understanding and Predicting the Effects of Changing Market Conditions


Es = d(P*/Q*) 1.6 = d(75/7.5) = 0.1d d = 1.6/0.1 = 16

Ed = -b(P*/Q*) -0.8 = -b(.75/7.5) = -0.1b b = 0.8/0.1 = 8

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 97

Understanding and Predicting the Effects of Changing Market Conditions


Supply = QS* = c + dP* 7.5 = c + 16(0.75) 7.5 = c + 12 c = 7.5 - 12

Demand = QD* = a -bP* 7.5 = a -(8)(.75) 7.5 = a - 6 a = 7.5 + 6

c = -4.5
Q = -4.5 + 16P

a =13.5
Q = 13.5 - 8P

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 98

Understanding and Predicting the Effects of Changing Market Conditions

Setting supply equal to demand gives:

Supply = -4.5 + 16p = 13.5 - 8p = Demand


16p + 8p = 13.5 + 4.5

p = 18/24 = .75

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 99

Understanding and Predicting the Effects of Changing Market Conditions


Price
a/b

Supply: QS = -4.5 + 16P

.75

-c/d

Demand: QD = 13.5 - 8P 7.5


Mmt/yr
Slide 100

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Understanding and Predicting the Effects of Changing Market Conditions

We have written supply and demand so that they only depend upon price. Demand could also depend upon income. Demand would then be written as:

Q a bP fI

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 101

Understanding and Predicting the Effects of Changing Market Conditions

We know the following information regarding the copper industry:


I = 1.0 P* = 0.75

Q* = 7.5
b=8

Income elasticity: E = 1.3

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 102

Understanding and Predicting the Effects of Changing Market Conditions

f can be found by substituting known values into the income elasticity formula:

E (I / Q)(Q / I )
and

f Q / I
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 103

Understanding and Predicting the Effects of Changing Market Conditions

Solving for f gives:

1.3 = (1.0/7.5)f
f = (1.3)(7.5)/1.0 = 9.75

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 104

Understanding and Predicting the Effects of Changing Market Conditions

Solving for a gives:

Q a bP fI
* *

7.5 = a - 8(0.75) + 9.75(1.0)

a = 3.75

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 105

Declining Demand and the Behavior of Copper Prices

The relevant factors leading to a decrease in the demand for copper are: 1) A decrease in the growth rate of power generation 2) The development of substitutes: fiber optics and aluminum

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 106

Real versus Nominal Prices of Copper 1965 - 1999

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 107

Real versus Nominal Prices of Copper 1965 - 1999

We will try to estimate the impact of a 20 percent decrease in the demand for copper. Recall the equation for the demand curve: Q = 13.5 - 8P

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 108

Real versus Nominal Prices of Copper 1965 - 1999

Multiply this equation by 0.80 to get the new equation. This gives: Q = (0.80)(13.5 - 8P) Q = 10.8 - 6.4P

Recall the equation for supply:

Q = -4.5 + 16P
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 109

Real versus Nominal Prices of Copper 1965 - 1999

The new equilibrium price is:

-4.5 + 16P = 10.8 - 6.4P


-16P + 6.4P = 10.8 + 4.5

P = 15.3/22.4
P = 68.3 cents/pound

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 110

Real versus Nominal Prices of Copper 1965 - 1999

The twenty percent decrease in demand resulted in a reduction in the equilibrium price to 68.3 cents from 75 cents, or 10 percent.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 111

Price of Crude Oil

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 112

Upheaval in the World Oil Market

We can predict numerically the impact of a decrease in the supply of OPEC oil. In 1995:

P* = $18/barrel World demand and total supply = 23 bb/yr. OPEC supply = 10 bb/yr.

Non-OPEC supply = 13 bb/yr


Slide 113

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Price Elasticity Estimates


Short-Run Long-Run

World Demand:
Competitive Supply (non-OPEC)

-0.05
0.10

-0.40
0.40

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 114

Upheaval in the World Oil Market

Short-Run Impact of a stoppage of Saudi Production equal to 3 bb/yr.

Short-run Demand

D = 24.08 - 0.06P

Short-run Competitive Supply

SC = 11.74 + 0.07P

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 115

Upheaval in the World Oil Market

Short-Run Impact of a stoppage of Saudi Production equal to 3 bb/yr.

Short-run Total Supply--before supply reduction (includes OPEC, 10bb/yr)

ST = 21.74 + 0.07P

Short-run Total Supply--after supply reduction

ST = 18.74 + 0.07P
Slide 116

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Upheaval in the World Oil Market

New Price After Reduction

Demand = Supply
24.08 - 0.06P = 18.74 + 0.07P

P = 41.08

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 117

Impact of Saudi Production Cut


SC Price 45
($ per barrel) 40 35 30 25 20 18 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 23 25 30
Quantity 35 (billions barrels/yr) Slide 118

D ST ST

Short-Run Effect

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Upheaval in the World Oil Market

Long-Run Impact of a stoppage Saudi Production equal to 3 bb/yr..

Long-run Demand
D

= 32.18 - 0.51P

Long-run Total Supply


S

= 17.78 + 0.29P

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 119

Upheaval in the World Oil Market

New Price is found setting long-run supply equal to long-run demand: 32.18 - 0.51P = 14.78 + 0.29P P = 21.75

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 120

Impact of Saudi Production Cut


Price 45
($ per barrel) 40 35 30 25 20 18 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 23 25 30 35
Quantity (billions barrels/yr) Slide 121

SC
D

ST ST

Long-run Effect
Due to the elasticity of the long-run supply and demand curves, the long-run effect of a cut in production is much less.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Effects of Government Intervention -Price Controls

If the government decides that the equilibrium price is too high, they may establish a maximum allowable ceiling price.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 122

Effects of Price Controls


Price S
If price is regulated to be no higher than Pmax, quantity supplied falls to Q1 and quantity demanded increases to Q2. A shortage results

P0

Pmax
D
Excess demand

Q0
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Quantity
Slide 123

Price Controls and Natural Gas Shortages

In 1954, the federal government began regulating the wellhead price of natural gas. In 1962, the ceiling prices that were imposed became binding and shortages resulted.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 124

Price Controls and Natural Gas Shortages

Price controls created an excess demand of 7 trillion cubic feet. Price regulation was a major component of U.S. energy policy in the 1960s and 1970s, and it continued to influence the natural gas markets in the 1980s.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 125

Price Controls and Natural Gas Shortages


The Data: Natural Gas
S PE 0.2

Cross elasticity of supply for oil 0.1


D PE

0.5

Cross elasticity of demand for oil 1.5 Supply: Q 14 2 PG .25 PO Demand : Q 5 PG 3.75 PO Supply Demand @ $2/TcF
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 126

Price Controls and Natural Gas Shortages


The Data: Natural Gas

1975 regulatedprice $1.00 At $1.00/TcF QS 18 TcF and Q 25 TcF Shortage 7 TcF/yr

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 127

Summary

Supply-demand analysis is a basic tool of microeconomics. The market mechanism is the tendency for supply and demand to equilibrate, so that there is neither excess demand nor excess supply

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 128

Summary

Elasticities describe the responsiveness of supply and demand to changes in price, income, and other variables. Elasticities pertain to a time frame. If we can estimate the supply and demand curves for a particular market, we can calculate the market clearing price.
Slide 129

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Summary

Simple numerical analysis can often be done by fitting linear supply and demand curves to data on price and quantity and to estimates of elasticities.

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand

Slide 130

End of Chapter 2

The Basics of Supply and Demand

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