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Topics to Be Discussed
Slide 2
Topics to Be Discussed
Understanding and Predicting the Effects of Changing Market Conditions Effects of Government Intervention--Price Controls
Slide 3
Introduction
Understanding and predicting how world economic conditions affect market price and production Analyzing the impact of government price controls, minimum wages, price supports, and production incentives
Slide 4
Introduction
Analyzing how taxes, subsidies, and import restrictions affect consumers and producers
Slide 5
The supply curve shows how much of a good producers are willing to sell at a given price, holding constant other factors that might affect quantity supplied
Slide 6
Qs QS ( P )
Slide 7
Horizontal axis measures quantity (Q) supplied in number of units per time period Quantity Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 8
P2 P1
The supply curve slopes upward demonstrating that at higher prices firms will increase output
Q1
Q2
Quantity Slide 9
Costs of Production
Labor
Capital
Raw Materials
Slide 10
P2
Q0
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand
Q1
Q2
Slide 11
Supply - A Review
Supply is determined by non-price supplydetermining variables as such as the cost of labor, capital, and raw materials. Changes in supply are shown by shifting the entire supply curve.
Slide 12
Supply - A Review
Changes in quantity supplied are shown by movements along the supply curve and are caused by a change in the price of the product.
Slide 13
The demand curve shows how much of a good consumers are willing to buy as the price per unit changes holding non-price factors constant.
This price-quantity relationship can be shown by the equation:
QD QD(P)
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 14
Horizontal axis measures quantity (Q) demanded in number of units per time period
Quantity
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 15
D Quantity
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 16
Substitutes Complements
Slide 17
Income Increases
P P2
Q0
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand
Q1
Q2
Slide 18
Demand - A Review
Demand is determined by non-price demand-determining variables, such as, income, price of related goods, and tastes. Changes in demand are shown by shifting the entire demand curve.
Changes in quantity demanded are shown by movements along the demand curve.
Slide 19
S
The curves intersect at equilibrium, or marketclearing, price. At P0 the quantity supplied is equal to the quantity demanded at Q0 .
P0
Q0
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand
Quantity
Slide 20
= QS shortage
No
No
excess supply
pressure on the price to change
Slide 21
Surplus
P1 P0
If price is above equilibrium:
1) Price is above the market clearing price 2) Qs > Qd 3) Price falls to the market-clearing price
Q0
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand
Quantity
Slide 22
There is excess supply Producers lower prices Quantity demanded increases and quantity supplied decreases The market continues to adjust until the equilibrium price is reached.
Slide 23
Surplus
P1 P2
Assume the price is P1 , then: 1) Qs : Q1 > Qd : Q2 2) Excess supply is Q1:Q2. 3) Producers lower price. 4) Quantity supplied decreases and quantity demanded increases. 5) Equilibrium at P2Q3
D Q1 Q3 Q2 Quantity
Slide 24
P3
P2
Assume the price is P2 , then: 1) Qd : Q2 > Qs : Q1 2) Shortage is Q1:Q2. 3) Producers raise price. 4) Quantity supplied increases and quantity demanded decreases. 5) Equilibrium at P3, Q3
Shortage
Q1 Q3
D
Q2 Quantity
Slide 26
There is a shortage Producers raise prices Quantity demanded decreases and quantity supplied increases The market continues to adjust until the new equilibrium price is reached.
Slide 27
Equilibrium prices are determined by the relative level of supply and demand. Supply and demand are determined by particular values of supply and demand determining variables. Changes in any one or combination of these variables can cause a change in the equilibrium price and/or quantity.
Slide 29
S shifts to S
Surplus @ P1 of Q 1, Q 2 Equilibrium @ P3, Q3
P1 P3
Q1 Q3 Q2
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 30
Income Increases
Demand shifts to D1
Shortage @ P1 of Q1, Q2 P3 Equilibrium @ P3, Q3
P1
Q2 Q1 Q3
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 31
The increase in D is greater than the increase in S Equilibrium price and quantity increase to P2, Q2
P2 P1
Q1
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand
Q2
Slide 32
When supply and demand change simultaneously, the impact on the equilibrium price and quantity is determined by:
1) The relative size and direction of the change
2) The shape of the supply and demand models
Slide 33
The real price of eggs fell 59% from 1970 to 1998. Supply increased due to the increased mechanization of poultry farming and the reduced cost of production. Demand decreased due to the increasing consumer concern over the health and cholesterol consequences of eating eggs.
Slide 34
S1970
Prices fell until a new equilibrium was reached at $0.26 and a quantity of 5,300 million dozen
S1998
$0.61
$0.26
D1970
5,300 5,500 Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand
The real price of a college education rose 68 percent from 1970 to 1995. Supply decreased due to higher costs of equipping and maintaining modern classrooms, laboratories and libraries, and higher faculty salaries. Demand increased due a larger percentage of a larger number of high school graduates attending college.
Slide 36
S1995
Prices rose until a new equilibrium was reached at $4,573 and a quantity of 12.3 million students
$4,248
S1970
$2,530
D1970
8.6 14.9
D1995
Rose 40+% for the top 20% of the income distribution Fell 10+% for the bottom 20%
Slide 38
Question
Why
did the income distribution become more unequal for 1977 to 1999?
Slide 39
Slide 40
Observations
Consumption of copper has increased about a hundred fold from 1880 through 1998 indicating a large increase in demand. The real price for copper has remained relatively constant.
Slide 41
S1900
S1950
S1998
D1900
D1950
D1998
Slide 42
Quantity
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand
Conclusion
Decreases in the costs of production have increased the supply by more than enough to offset the increase in demand.
Slide 43
Observation
To accurately predict the future price of a product or service, it is necessary to consider the potential change in supply and demand. 1970 predictions for oil and other minerals proved incorrect because they only considered the demand side of the market.
Slide 44
Generally, elasticity is a measure of the sensitivity of one variable to another. It tells us the percentage change in one variable in response to a one percent change in another variable.
Slide 45
It measures the percentage change in the quantity demanded for a good or service that results from a one percent change in the price.
Slide 46
EP (%Q)/(%P)
Slide 47
The percentage change in a variable is the absolute change in the variable divided by the original level of the variable.
Slide 48
Q/Q P Q EP P/P Q P
Slide 49
Slide 50
Interpreting Price Elasticity of Demand Values 3) If EP < 1, the percent change in quantity is less than the percent change in price. We say the demand is price inelastic.
Slide 51
Slide 52
EP -
The lower portion of a downward sloping demand curve is less elastic than the upper portion.
Q
Slide 53
P*
EP -
Quantity
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 54
EP 0
Q*
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand
Quantity
Slide 55
Income elasticity of demand measures the percentage change in quantity demanded resulting from a one percent change in income.
Slide 56
Q/Q I Q EI I/I Q I
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 57
Cross elasticity of demand measures the percentage change in the quantity demanded of one good that results from a one percent change in the price of another good. For example consider the substitute goods, butter and margarine.
Slide 58
The cross elasticity for substitutes is positive, while that for complements is negative.
Slide 59
Price elasticity of supply measures the percentage change in quantity supplied resulting from a 1 percent change in price. The elasticity is usually positive because price and quantity supplied are directly related.
Slide 60
We can refer to elasticity of supply with respect to interest rates, wage rates, and the cost of raw materials.
Slide 61
= 1,800 + 240P
= 3,550 - 266P
Slide 62
Equilibrium: Q S = Q D
P 3.46 / bushel
Q 1,800 (240)(3.46) 2,630 million bushels
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 63
Slide 65
1998
1,944 + 207P
3,244 - 283P
Slide 66
Price elasticity of demand varies with the amount of time consumers have to respond to a price.
Slide 67
Slide 68
DSR
People tend to drive smaller and more fuel efficient cars in the long-run
Gasoline
DLR
Quantity
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 69
DLR
People may put off immediate consumption, but eventually older cars must be replaced.
Automobiles
DSR
Quantity
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 70
Income elasticity also varies with the amount of time consumers have to respond to an income change.
Slide 71
incomes may be converted into bigger cars so the income elasticity of demand for gasoline increases with time.
Slide 72
more cars.
Later,
Slide 73
Slide 74
Gasoline
The long-run price and income elasticities are larger than the short-run elasticities.
Automobiles
The long-run price and income elasticities are smaller than the short-run elasticities.
Slide 75
Price
Income
Slide 76
-1.20 -0.93 -0.75 -0.55 -0.42 -0.40 3.00 2.33 1.88 1.38 1.02 1.00
Slide 77
Data Explains:
1) Why the price of oil did not continue to rise above $30/barrel even though it rose very rapidly in the early 1970s. 2) Why automobile sales are so sensitive to the business cycle.
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 78
Long-run price elasticity of supply is greater than short-run price elasticity of supply.
Long-run price elasticity of supply is less than short-run price elasticity of supply
Slide 79
SSR SLR
Due to limited capacity, firms are limited by output constraints in the short-run. In the long-run, they can expand.
Quantity
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 80
SLR
SSR
Price increases provide an incentive to convert scrap copper into new supply. In the long-run, this stock of scrap copper begins to fall.
Quantity
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 81
Short-run
Long-run
Primary supply
Secondary supply Total supply
0.20
0.43 0.25
1.60
0.31 1.50
Slide 82
Due to the differences in supply elasticity in the long-run and short run.
Slide 83
Slide 84
S
P1
S
A freeze or drought decreases the supply of coffee
P0
Short-Run 1) Supply is completely inelastic 2) Demand is relatively inelastic 3) Very large change in price
Q1
Q0
Quantity
Slide 85
P2 P0
Intermediate-Run 1) Supply and demand are more elastic 2) Price falls back to P2. 3) Quantity falls to Q2
D Q2 Q0
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand
Quantity
Slide 86
P0
D
Q0
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand
Quantity
Slide 87
First, we must learn how to fit linear demand and supply curves to market data. Then we can determine numerically how a change in a variable will cause supply or demand to shift and thereby affect the market price and quantity.
Slide 88
Available Data
Equilibrium Price, P*
Equilibrium Quantity, Q* Price elasticity of supply, ES, and demand, ED.
Slide 89
Supply: Q = c + dP
P*
ED = -bP*/Q* ES = dP*/Q*
-c/d
Demand: Q = a - bP Q*
Quantity
Slide 90
Lets begin with the equations for supply and demand: Demand: QD = a - bP Supply: QS = c + dP
Step 1:
Recall:
E (P/Q)( Q/ P)
Slide 92
For linear demand curves, the change in quantity divided by the change in price is constant (equal to the slope of the curve).
Slide 93
Substituting the slopes for each into the formula for elasticity, we get:
ED - b(P * /Q*)
ES d(P * /Q*)
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 94
Since we will have values for ED, ES, P*, and Q*, we can solve for b & d, and a & c.
QD a bP
*
QS c dP
*
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand
Slide 95
Q* = 7.5 mmt/yr.
P* = 75 cents/pound
ES = 1.6 ED = -0.8
Slide 96
Slide 97
c = -4.5
Q = -4.5 + 16P
a =13.5
Q = 13.5 - 8P
Slide 98
p = 18/24 = .75
Slide 99
.75
-c/d
We have written supply and demand so that they only depend upon price. Demand could also depend upon income. Demand would then be written as:
Q a bP fI
Slide 101
I = 1.0 P* = 0.75
Q* = 7.5
b=8
Slide 102
f can be found by substituting known values into the income elasticity formula:
E (I / Q)(Q / I )
and
f Q / I
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 103
1.3 = (1.0/7.5)f
f = (1.3)(7.5)/1.0 = 9.75
Slide 104
Q a bP fI
* *
a = 3.75
Slide 105
The relevant factors leading to a decrease in the demand for copper are: 1) A decrease in the growth rate of power generation 2) The development of substitutes: fiber optics and aluminum
Slide 106
Slide 107
We will try to estimate the impact of a 20 percent decrease in the demand for copper. Recall the equation for the demand curve: Q = 13.5 - 8P
Slide 108
Multiply this equation by 0.80 to get the new equation. This gives: Q = (0.80)(13.5 - 8P) Q = 10.8 - 6.4P
Q = -4.5 + 16P
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 109
P = 15.3/22.4
P = 68.3 cents/pound
Slide 110
The twenty percent decrease in demand resulted in a reduction in the equilibrium price to 68.3 cents from 75 cents, or 10 percent.
Slide 111
Slide 112
We can predict numerically the impact of a decrease in the supply of OPEC oil. In 1995:
P* = $18/barrel World demand and total supply = 23 bb/yr. OPEC supply = 10 bb/yr.
World Demand:
Competitive Supply (non-OPEC)
-0.05
0.10
-0.40
0.40
Slide 114
Short-run Demand
D = 24.08 - 0.06P
SC = 11.74 + 0.07P
Slide 115
ST = 21.74 + 0.07P
ST = 18.74 + 0.07P
Slide 116
Demand = Supply
24.08 - 0.06P = 18.74 + 0.07P
P = 41.08
Slide 117
D ST ST
Short-Run Effect
Long-run Demand
D
= 32.18 - 0.51P
= 17.78 + 0.29P
Slide 119
New Price is found setting long-run supply equal to long-run demand: 32.18 - 0.51P = 14.78 + 0.29P P = 21.75
Slide 120
SC
D
ST ST
Long-run Effect
Due to the elasticity of the long-run supply and demand curves, the long-run effect of a cut in production is much less.
If the government decides that the equilibrium price is too high, they may establish a maximum allowable ceiling price.
Slide 122
P0
Pmax
D
Excess demand
Q0
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand
Quantity
Slide 123
In 1954, the federal government began regulating the wellhead price of natural gas. In 1962, the ceiling prices that were imposed became binding and shortages resulted.
Slide 124
Price controls created an excess demand of 7 trillion cubic feet. Price regulation was a major component of U.S. energy policy in the 1960s and 1970s, and it continued to influence the natural gas markets in the 1980s.
Slide 125
0.5
Cross elasticity of demand for oil 1.5 Supply: Q 14 2 PG .25 PO Demand : Q 5 PG 3.75 PO Supply Demand @ $2/TcF
Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 126
Slide 127
Summary
Supply-demand analysis is a basic tool of microeconomics. The market mechanism is the tendency for supply and demand to equilibrate, so that there is neither excess demand nor excess supply
Slide 128
Summary
Elasticities describe the responsiveness of supply and demand to changes in price, income, and other variables. Elasticities pertain to a time frame. If we can estimate the supply and demand curves for a particular market, we can calculate the market clearing price.
Slide 129
Summary
Simple numerical analysis can often be done by fitting linear supply and demand curves to data on price and quantity and to estimates of elasticities.
Slide 130
End of Chapter 2