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The Context
The UPA government is completing its 4th year in the second term. CNN-IBN is interested in conducting an opinion poll in order to understand the pulse of the urban mindset, about the current state of governance as well as Dr. Manmohan Singhs leadership of the coalition-based UPA government. The Opinion Poll was conducted in 12 centers:
Ahmedabad, Chennai, Delhi, Kolkata, Lucknow, Mumbai, Jaipur, Chandigarh, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Bhopal and Patna
The target group for the Opinion Poll was fairly representative and comprised:
Adult Males and Females (18 years and above) Across SEC A/B/C
Interviews were carried out in respondents homes and in street corners Interviews were conducted between 7th and 11th May, 2013
Sample Size
Male Female
Total
Ahmedabad
Bangalore Bhopal Chandigarh Chennai Delhi Hyderabad Jaipur Kolkata
99
102 106 100 122 109 102 108 110
100
99 98 104 102 92 98 97 104
199
201 204 204 224 201 200 205 214 Sample Size Distribution
Age (In Years)
18-25
26-35 36-45 46-60
2466
Lucknow
Mumbai Patna
105
102 108
97
102 100
202
204 208
SEC
511
626 554 451 SEC A SEC B SEC C 757 933 776
* Figures in absolute
60 +
324
UPA-II PERFORMANCE
12
16
16
19
37
Somewhat dissatisfied
Completely dissatisfied
More than half the respondents are dissatisfied with the current governments performance.
The dissatisfaction is highest among Delhi and Chennai respondents Level of dissatisfaction relatively lower in Bangalore probably driven by Congresss recent election win in the state
5
Do you think that the government has lost all credibility to rule the country anymore?
Yes No
4% 28%
DK/CS
67%
68%
The Prime Minister and the UPA government appears to have lost their credibility in the eyes of the public as two-third respondents agree to the statement.
Majority of the Delhi respondents (95%) feel the same; however, some level of support to UPA-II comes from Mumbai since 50% say that Despite all the negative events, they are still better than others to govern India.
1 8
20
Increased
71
Decreased
DK/CS
Corruption Levels
Nearly 3/4th respondents at an overall level say that the corruption levels have increased in the last one year. More than 60% respondents in all the centres (except Chandigarh and Bhopal) say that the corruption levels have increased perception highest in Delhi (94%)
Majority in Chandigarh have mixed opinion i.e. the corruption has either remained the same or increased Close to one-third respondents in Bhopal opine that the corruption levels have decreased
7
43
Remained the same for all commodities
51
Increased for most essential commodities
Price Rise
Majority of respondents across all centres feel that the prices of all commodities, including the essential
State of Economy
Base : All (2466)
1
Improved
Figures in %
64
Declined
22 13 State Of Economy
DK/CS
Close to 2/3rd of respondents feel that the state of economy has worsened. Only exceptions being Chandigarh and Bhopal, where 40% respondents say that the state of the economy has improved
35
23 16 16 10
More than 1/3rd feel that the current government is weak and lacks courage, while close to 25% think that they lack political maturity
While nearly 50% respondents in Mumbai believe the government lacks courage and political maturity (Lacks courage to take decisions, Lacks the political maturity to govern India), about 60% in Lucknow think that the government lacks courage as well as good leaders in coalition (Lacks courage to take decisions, Lack of good and talented leaders in the coalition). While more than 1/3rd respondents in Bangalore state that the UPA-II lacks communication skills required to govern the country
10
24
12 7 7 7 4 1
Failure to control price rise Failure to control corruption Failure to improve economy & business
1
None of these
Inability to Failure to Indecisive Poor quality of Intolerance Poor foreign Failure to manage a address issues approach overall towards policy secure the coalition govt related to law & towards taking governance criticism/dissent management support of its order strong expressed in and failure to own Congress decisions the social control party media Pakistan/China
Price rise and inflation has been stated as the biggest failure of UPA-II by 1/3rd respondents, closely followed by 1/4th respondents suggesting Corruption as the biggest failure Close to 40% respondents in Chandigarh consider the indecisive approach of the government as their biggest failure
11
34
12
12 10 9 9 6 3 3 2
DK/CS
Managed to Managed keep the Indias foreign economy stable policy effectively in difficult times
Managed Successfully Able to control alliance strengthened price rise partners & laws on crimes minority govt against women successfully
Managed to Successfully None of these control Naxal launched threat schemes like effectively Direct Transfer Benefit
Though more than one-third feel that the current UPA government does not have any major success story in its hands, about one-tenth have shown appreciation for its management of foreign policy and stabilization of the economy
Nearly one-third respondents in Bangalore and Bhopal opine that the Foreign policy has been managed effectively While more than one-fourth respondents in Mumbai and Patna think that the economy was kept stable in difficult times
12
Should the Prime Minister be held responsible for the Coal Mines allotment controversy? 7%
28%
50%
Congress
28%
13%
BJP government in States Both, Congress and BJP DK/CS Yes No DK/CS
65%
Half of the respondents say that Congress is primarily responsible for the Coal-mine allotment while about 30% feel that both, Congress and BJP are equally responsible.
More than 40% in Bangalore, Kolkata and Chandigarh consider that Congress and BJP , both have benefited from the Coal-mine allotment.
Majority of respondents across centres say that the PM should be held responsible for the coal mine controversy only exceptions are Bangalore and Kolkata
13
Yes
11%
25% 64%
No
DK/CS
Close to 2/3rd respondents think that the PMO is trying to cover-up the scams.
Respondents in Lucknow almost universally agree with this statement However, Bangalore and Chandigarh respondents think otherwise
14
Yes
12%
No
30% 58%
DK/CS
More than half the respondents think that the UPA government is being pressurized by the coalition partners However, respondents in Bangalore and Ahmedabad feel otherwise
15
20
13
13 12 12 12 11 6 1
Del
201
Ahm
199
Kol
214
Hyd
200
Luck
202
Pat
208
Chan
204
Bho
204
Jaip
205
Experienced, effective and determined Lacks imagination, is slow and has poor communication skills Lacks skills needed in a Prime Minister and is inconsistent Not bold or tough in taking decisions Not as honest as he is claimed to be Honest, but has failed in acting against corrupt people
6 13 13 38 9 13
15 15 15 31 7 3
6 21 13 24 21 4
20
6 11 16 9 10
8 10 11 16 10
12 9
5 15 14 12
22
18 10 15 3 13
21
0 0 20 20 21
29
15 6 7 7 2
2 5 15 25 5 21
29
11 18 12 15
33
21 12 2
22
15
20
There is mixed opinion about Dr. Manmohan Singh among the respondents, though one-fifth have described
17
31 27
14
Ahm
Base: All 199
Del
201
Chen
224
Bang
201
Mum
204
Kol
214
Hyd
200
Luck
202
Pat
208
Bhop
204
Jaip
205
6 40
6 79
6 80
22 26
31 35
14 42
17 68
16 60
6 68
40 39
49 50
19 57
More than half the respondents have rated Dr. Manmohan Singhs performance in the second term as poor.
The PMs performance has been rated poor especially in Delhi and Chennai, while in Chandigarh and Bhopal more than 40% are satisfied with his performance. In Bangalore, half of the respondents have rated PMs performance as average.
18
Recently, many scams were reported and PMO was said to be aware of these scams in different ministries. Do you believe that Dr. Manmohan Singh is an honest man?
Base : All (2466)
3%
24% 40%
Yes
No
33%
My perception about his honesty has reduced in the last year DK/CS
For more than half the respondents, the PM is either not honest or perception about his honesty has declined in the last year.
The change in perception has been observed for about 50% respondents in Bangalore.
However, about 60% respondents in Mumbai and Kolkata still believe that the PM is an honest man.
19
17 15 8 4 4 18
P. Chidambaram
Rahul Gandhi
A.K. Antony
Though one-fourth of the respondents do not find anyone in UPA government suitable to the lead the country, about 1/4th respondents find Rahul Gandhi suitable to be the Prime Minister in the current UPA government About 1/3rd respondents in Ahmedabad , Bangalore and Mumbai support Rahul Gandhi for the post However, in Kolkata and Bhopal Dr. Manmohan Singh being supported by more than 1/3rd respondents
20
Sharad Pawar
Sonia Gandhi
Meira Kumar
DK/CS
Figures in %
Base : Respondents who think that Dr. Manmohan Singh should be replaced (1509)
2% 37% 61%
39
23 13 Yes No DK/CS 7 6 3 2 2 3
Majority of the respondents across centres say that Dr. Manmohan Singh should be replaced as the Prime Minister in India Those who think that Dr. Manmohan Singh should be replaced, consider Rahul Gandhi as the most suitable replacement for him
21
UPCOMING ELECTIONS
3%
49%
48%
DK/CS
At All India level, there is mixed response towards early elections Majority of respondents(66%) from Delhi believe that the government should call for immediate elections whereas majority (72%) in Mumbai believe that the UPA government should complete their full term.
23
4% 40% 56%
Yes
No
DK/CS
At All India level, majority of respondents(56%) believe that UPA government does not deserve another chance to govern India Majority of respondents(78%) from Chennai believe that the government does not deserve another chance whereas nearly 60% respondents in Mumbai believe that the UPA government still deserve another chance.
24
Which candidate would you like leading India as the next Prime Minister?
Base : All (2466)
Figures in %
38
13
14
2 5 2 2 1 2
Among given candidates, Narendra Modi gets maximum support - more than twice that of Rahul Gandhi or Dr. Manmohan Singh. 40% of younger respondents (18-25 yrs) have supported Narendra Modi over Rahul Gandhi - with Rahul Gandhi securing only 13% support from youth. In centers like Bhopal and Kolkata, support for Dr. Manmohan Singh relatively higher In Bangalore 1/3rd respondents prefer Rahul Gandhi
25
60
1 Arun Jaitley
1 Raman Singh
1
Shivraj Singh Chauhan
8 Sushma Swaraj
5 None of above
12 None in BJP
2 DK/CS
More than half of the respondents consider Narendra Modi as the most suitable candidate for Prime Minister from BJP; getting high support from Ahmedabad(84%) and Bhopal(79%) - no other leader in the BJP enjoys as much popularity as Narendra Modi L.K Advani considered as second most suitable however extent of preference significantly lower as compared to that of Narendra Modi.
26
Prime Minister
Base : All (2466)
Figures in %
44
12
4 J Jayalalitha K Karunanidhi
17
1 Prakash Karat Nitish Kumar None of the above 3 DK/CS
Close to half the respondents do not find any Non-BJP/Non-Congress candidate as suitable for being the
27
44
17 13
15 2
8
None of above DK/CS
Sharad Pawar
Mayawati
Omar Abdullah
Close to half the respondents believe that no one among the UPA Allies is a suitable candidate to be the
28
2% 13% 29%
Narendra Modi
Don't Know
Between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi, majority of respondents at an overall level prefer the former
as next Prime Minister. Narendra Modi secures maximum support of 91% from Lucknow
29
41
Figures in %
40
34 29 19 18 17 2
About 40% respondents think that Narendra Modi has clear idea and solutions and is business friendly and can bring development.
30
32
29
28
Honest and a man of personal integrity Can take strong decisions, has vision, clear ideas & solutions to problems
26
25
23
DK/CS
Mixed opinions about Rahul Gandhi can be perceived among the respondents.
Close to 1/3rd respondents believe that Rahul Gandhi is immature and inexperienced to be the Prime
Minister however around 30% also feel that he can take tough decisions and will bring about development Overall, level of endorsements in favour of Narendra Modi higher than that of Rahul Gandhi
31
Are young Congress leaders not able to grow because of Rahul Gandhi?
Base : All (2466)
6% 36%
58%
Yes
No
DK/CS
More than half of the respondents do not consider Rahul Gandhi as hindrance to the growth of young Congress leaders
32
53% 12%
Varun Gandhi
Rahul Gandhi is chosen to be the Most Appealing Gandhi Sibling by more than half of the respondents A quarter of the respondents do not find any of the Gandhi siblings appealing
33
OTHER ISSUES
28 27 21 17 3 2 1
DK/CS
The main decision for voting for a party will be based on people who promise to resolve local level issues
1 1 3 4 4 8 26 53
Figures in %
The main concern for Urban India is Rising Prices and inflation followed by rampant corruption
36
33
Figures in %
Age of leader is not important, it's their ability that makes a difference
21
20
20
Young leaders are more talked about and are not capable enough
DK/CS
Experience and maturity of a leader comes out to be the most critical qualities required for governing India.
37
20 17 10 5 2
Not above 60 yrs Not above 65 yrs Not above 70 yrs Not above 80 yrs Age not important DK/CS
Close to half the respondents believe that the age-limit of ministers in State/Centre should not be above 60yrs.
38
Social Media Does it play a key role in building perceptions about political leaders?
Base : All (2466)
7% 25%
68%
Yes
No
DK/CS
Majority of respondents believe that Social Media will play a key role in building perceptions about political leaders.
39
Social Media Will it play an important role in political campaigns for forthcoming elections?
Base : All (2466)
6%
21%
73%
Yes
No
DK/CS
Majority of respondents believe that Social Media will play an important role in political campaigns for forthcoming elections.
40
Summary
The public appears to be largely dissatisfied with the current term of the UPA Government
Price Rise closely followed by Corruption considered as the biggest failures of the government
Dissatisfaction also high with the performance of the current PM Dr. Manmohan Singh.
Perceived more as a person who is Not bold or tough in taking decisions. Moreover, perceptions about his honesty have taken a beating, in the light of recent scams and controversies
Majority believe that the UPA does not deserve another chance in governing India in the up-coming
elections Among leaders across political parties, Narendra Modi enjoys the highest preference for the post of the next Prime Minister Price rise and inflation considered to be the key concern area by voters
Thank You!