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The flow system is comprised of two confined aquifers separated by a confining unit. Inflow occurs primarily as areal recharge; there is also a very small amount of inflow across the boundary with the hillside. At steady-state, outflow occurs only as discharge to the river.
Management Issues
Pumping wells for water supply are being completed in aquifers 1 and 2. The effect of pumping on the river is of concern, because there is a minimum required discharge from the ground-water system to the river. A landfill is proposed in one corner of the study area. The landfill developers claim
(a) the landfill is outside the capture zone of the wells and (b) any leaking effluent will reach the river sufficiently diluted.
?
?
First, steady-state model without pumping will be developed and calibrated using available measurements of hydraulic-heads and discharge to the river, and will be used for preliminary evaluation of the issues.
Then, pumping wells will be installed, a long-term aquifer test will be conducted using the wells, and a transient model of the system will be recalibrated using the steady-state measurements as well as the additional drawdown and river discharge data collected during the test.
See flow model setup in Figure 2-1b (page 32) of Hill and Tiedeman. See model parameter definition and starting values in Table 3-1 (page 38). See true simulated conditions in Figures 2-1c and 2-1d (page 22-23).
Basic (BAS) and the Discretization input file Define model grid, including rows, columns, and layers Define types of model layer (confined; convertible) Layer Property Flow (LPF) Define hydraulic properties K, Ss, Sy, Anisotropy Recharge (RCH) Define distribution of areal recharge River (RIV) General-Head Boundary (GHB) Well (WEL) Define pumpage Used here for prediction runs only
Model layer 1 is homogeneous Model layer 2 has K that increases linearly from beneath the river to the hillside
Recharge Package
Can apply recharge to model layer 1 or top active cell at each row, column location Input a flow rate (L/T). The program multiplies by area to get volume per time. Layer data. Parameters are used to define the recharge rate. For this problem, use 2 zones; no multiplication arrays.
EXPLANATION qn Positive qn indicates flow into the subsurface (A) GHB Slope = -Cn = -(KnAn)/Dn qn 3/T) the simulated flow rate at one cell (L (negative for flow out of the ground -water system) the hydraulic conductivity (L/T) of, for example, the riverbed or lakebed the thickness (L) of, for example, the riverbed or lakebed the area of the water body within the finite difference cell (L2) the conductance calculated using K n, Dn, and An. is the simulated hydraulic head in the ground water system adjacent to the head -dependent boundary (L); and is the water level in the water body or the (C) elevation of the drain (L) is the bottom of the streambed qn Positive qn indicates flow into the subsurface (C) RIV Slope = -Cn = -(KnAn)/Dn
Kn Dn
The River (RIV) and General-Head Boundary (GHB) Packages are used
qn = 0
hn
An Cn
hn
qn qn = 0
hn
Hn
En
Hn
Well Package
List data layer, row, column, pumpage rate Input volume of discharge per time. Outflow is NEGATIVE. For this problem, no pumpage parameters need to be defined, but you can use the parameter capability to define them if you like. [Why might you want to do that?]
Flow-system property Horizontal hydraulic conductivity of layer 1, in m/s Vertical hydraulic conductivity of confining bed, in m/s Horizontal hydraulic conductivity of layer 2 in columns 1 and 2, in m/s Hydraulic conductivity of the riverbed, in m/s Recharge in recharge zone 1, in cm/yr Recharge in recharge zone 2, in cm/yr
Starting value 3.0 x 10-4 1.0 x 10-7 4.0 x 10-5 1.2 x 10-3 63.072 31.536
Observations
10 head observations, 5 in each model layer. Observed values shown in Table 3-2 (page 38) of Hill and Tiedeman. 1 steady-state flow observation: ground-water discharge to the river of 4.4 m3/sec.
Head Observations
Well identifier Observation name
Layer Row Col
Variance of water-level measurement error (m2) 0.0025 0.0025 0.0025 0.0025 0.0025 0.0025 0.0025 0.0025 0.0025 0.0025
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1.ss 2.ss 3.ss 4.ss 5.ss 6.ss 7.ss 8.ss 9.ss 10.ss
1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2
3 4 10 13 14 4 10 10 10 18
1 4 9 4 6 4 1 9 18 6
101.804 128.117 156.678 124.893 140.961 126.537 101.112 158.135 176.374 142.020
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
1.0025 1.0025 1.0025 1.0025 1.0025 1.0025 1.0025 1.0025 1.0025 1.0025
Weights on Observations
nq
i ( Pi P'i (b))
i 1
npr
Heads
Flows
Prior
So that residuals for observations with different units (e.g. heads and flows) can be summed in the objective function.
To account for different observations having different degrees of measurement error. Weighting is used to reduce the influence of observations that are less accurate, and to increase the influence of observations that are more accurate.
Weights on Observations
Defining the weights as being proportional to the inverse of the variance of measurement error meets both these needs:
i2
The variance of measurement error is an estimate of the uncertainty of the observation. How do we quantify this? Need to quantify the uncertainty using: 1. A range that is symmetric about the measurement used for the observation. 2. A probability with which the true value is expected to occur within the range.
Quantify this as there is a 95-percent chance the true value falls within 3 meters of the measurement.
Use a normal probability table to determine that a 95-percent confidence interval is a value plus and minus 1.96 times the standard deviation, .
A measurement of stream loss to a ground-water system is derived by subtracting two streamflow measurements, an upstream value of 3.0 m3/s and a downstream value of 2.5 m3/s .
Quantify uncertainty: The first measurement is considered to be slightly worse than the second. For the upstream measurement, the hydrologist believes that there is a 90% chance that the true value falls within 5% of the measured value; for the downstream measurement, there is a 95% chance that the true value falls within 5% of the measured value. Using values from a normal probability table, a 90% confidence interval is a value 1.65 times the standard deviation, . Upstream measurement: 1.65 x = 0.05 x 3.0 m3/, so = 0.091 m3/s. Downstream measurement: 1.96 x = 0.05 x 2.5 m3/, so = 0.064 m3/s. The loss of streamflow in the reach between these two measurements is 0.5 m3/s. How accurately is this loss known? Add variances!! The variance of the loss is 0.0912 + 0.0642 = 0.0124 (m3/)2.
Head Observations:
Elevation of each observation well has a variance of measurement error of 1.00 m2. Each water-level measurement has a variance of measurement error of 0.0025 m2. Thus, total variance measurement error = 1.0025 m2
Flow Observation:
From UCODE-2005 output file. DO EXERCISE 3.3: Evaluate model fit using the starting parameter values.
RESIDUAL 1.579 -11.21 -17.68 -14.44 -16.17 -13.10 -1.756 -15.82 -13.93 -15.02 0.4606
WEIGHT**.5 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 2.27
STATISTICS FOR THESE RESIDUALS: MAXIMUM WEIGHTED RESIDUAL: 0.158E+01 Observation: hd01.ss MINIMUM WEIGHTED RESIDUAL: -0.177E+02 Observation: hd03.ss AVERAGE WEIGHTED RESIDUAL: -0.106E+02 # RESIDUALS >= 0. : 2 # RESIDUALS < 0. : 9 NUMBER OF RUNS: 3 IN 11 OBSERVATIONS SUM OF SQUARED WEIGHTED RESIDUALS : 1752.4 1752.4
SUM OF SQUARED WEIGHTED RESIDUALS WITH PRIOR: SUM OF SQUARED, WEIGHTED RESIDUALS: DEPENDENT VARIABLES: 1752.4
nh
HEADS
FLOWS
npr
i 1
2 ( P P ' ( b )) i i i
PRIOR
Model(s),
Observations
Related to model output. Use to calibrate model
Parameters
Parameter estimation
Alternative models
Predictions
Consider predictions
Societal decisions