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CHAPTER 6
VS
WAR, Ugh, what is it good for? Absolutely nothing! -Edwin Starr
Summary
International conflict is a central theme of global politics.
World War I World War II Cold War
One crucial step toward forming an educated opinion about the whole versus parts controversy involves understanding theories at different levels of analysis. Levels of analysis concern whether one focuses upon the components or whether one focuses upon the system. Applying levels of analysis to explore the causes of war raises issues of conceptual interpretation.
The most vital point to be made about analyses that focus on different social entities (nation-states on the one hand and the international system on the other) is that these analyses are relatively independent of each other. That is, patterns on one level of analysis will not necessarily be reflected on another level. Also, analyses of issues in global politics can become confused if shifts in levels of analysis are not made clear.
Different arrangements of power distribution and concentration are characterized as polarity. International systems may be unipolar, bipolar, or multipolar. The balance-of-power theory was developed by makers of European foreign policy in the era from roughly 1700 until the First World War. The fundamental premise of this theory was that power should be distributed within the international system in such a way that no single state ever becomes strong enough to dominate the rest. Preserving such a balance was one reason for the exchange of ambassadors (whose function was to keep up with changes in power), which became standard. The most important way of manipulating power distribution involved creating temporary alliances to thwart the ambitions of any state that became too powerful.
The classical balance of power is often credited with preserving the peace in the nineteenth century. Hans Morgenthau asserts that peace was preserved by a balance of power, while A. F. K. Organski says this was because there was actually an imbalance of power. An empirical analysis of the relevant data reveals that the latter argument receives support from data pertaining to the nineteenth century, whereas an analysis of twentieth-century data provides evidence for the former argument.
Nevertheless, it is not clear that the main idea tested here is truly relevant to the system level of analysis. It applies more clearly to relationships between pairs of states. Furthermore, some versions of the balance-ofpower theory predict not that peace will prevail, but rather that war is one mechanism that will be used to maintain a balance.
A related controversy focuses on the relationship between the polarity of the global system and that systems propensity toward war. A majority of scholars who have analyzed this relationship believe that multipolar systems are more flexible and less prone to conflict. However, Kenneth Waltz argues that the bipolar system of the post-Second World War period proved quite stable. The relevance of this debate was revived by the end of the Cold War. The end of the Cold War has also opened up room for another approach to system stability called hegemonic stability theory. This theory argues that unipolar systems are more stable because a very powerful hegemon will counter the anarchy in the international system by playing the role of an overarching authority that can enforce rules.
The key question in hegemonic stability theory is whether the United States is playing the role of the hegemon today. Some argue that despite the relative preponderance of power the United States possesses, the system is not unipolar.
In regards to unipolar systems, realists warn that such systems are inherently unstable and dangerous because hegemons do not last, and their eventual decline will lead to a system better explained by the power transition theory. According to this theory, conflicts are more likely when power transitions are underway, and power transition theorists point to rising Chinese power as the new phenomenon to be observed.
Confusion need not blot out the coherence that does exist in the relationship between system structure and the behavior of nation-states. A step toward clarifying the relationship between system structure and the behavior of states within that structure involves integrating the balance-of-power theory with theories that focus on polarity. Prevailing conventional wisdom suggests that the balance-of-power system died at the end of the Second World War.
But such a belief is based on an exaggeration of the differences between the contemporary system and the historical system. True, the system based on a conscious attempt to adhere to the theory of a classical balance of power, such as did occur in eighteenth- and nineteenth-century Europe, is dead. But a more generic balance-of-power system exists so long as the system is anarchic and the units in it wish to survive. Finally, while realists tend to focus on anarchy and the distribution of power as the most important characteristics of the system, liberalism recognizes the potential for international cooperation through interdependence.
The democratic peace thesis is championed by some scholars as one of the most significant results of international relations scholarship since World War II, but for others the proposition raises questions of definitions, measurement of conflict, and interpretation of dyadic arrangements. The question of why democracies do not tend to fight each other remains a theoretical puzzle that scholars have tried to explore using cultural explanations or through studies of constraints on democratic governments. State level theories of war causation can be applied to understand the origins of World War I, World War II, and even the rise of the Cold War.
Leaders ultimately have significant authority over state behavior, and their beliefs and perceptions may shape discrete decisions in foreign policy. Leaders may have distinct enemy images or they may misperceive developments on the world stage. Decision-making explanations seem to offer compelling perspectives on the events leading to the outbreak of World War I, although some of these explanations have been recently questioned. Decision-making explanations also help us to understand certain causes of World War II and the Cold War.