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Background
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Future planned webinars
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Webinar Outline
Ron Fionte
Branch Chief, Bureau of Labor and Statistics
(BLS)
Bill Meehan
Principal Economist, Division of Research
and Statistics, New York State
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History of Earnings Outcomes
TEGL 7-99
Average Earnings Change (Adult, Older Youth)
Earnings Replacement Rate (DW, TAA, NEG)
Effective 7/1/2000. Rescinded by TEGL 17-05
TEGL 15-03
Earnings Increase 1 & 2 (Adult, Older Youth, DW, TAA,
VETS)
Never fully implemented. Rescinded by TEGL 28-04
TEGL 28-04
Six Months Earnings Increase (Adult, DW, TAA, Wagner-
Peyser, VETS)
Effective 7/1/2005. Rescinded by TEGL 17-05
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TEGL 17-05
Earnings Change:
Older Youth
Of those who are employed in the 1st quarter after the exit quarter and
who are either not enrolled in post-secondary education or advanced
training / advanced training-occupational skills training in the 3rd
quarter after the exit quarter or are employed in the 3rd quarter after the
exit quarter:
[Total post-program earnings [earnings in quarter 2 + quarter 3 after exit]
minus pre-program earnings [earnings in quarter 2 + quarter 3 prior to
participation] divided by the number of older youth participants who exit
during the quarter.
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Data Sources
Wage Records
UI Wage Records
Additional Wage Record Data Sources:
Automated Record Matching / Data Sharing
Systems (WRIS and FEDES)
OPM, USPS, US DoD, Railroad Retirement
System, State New Hires Registry and State
Department of Revenue or Tax
Supplemental Sources (only for grantees
that do not have access to wage records,
e.g. NFJP, SCSEP, INAP)
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UI Wage Records
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Additional Wage Record Data Source:
WRIS & FEDES
WRIS (Wage Record Interchange System)
Created to facilitate the interstate exchange of
UI wage data
50 states participating
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Lower Living Standard Income Level
(LLSIL)
NOTE: This data should not be used for statistical purposes due to the nature of
the base calculation which has not been updated since 1981.
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Lower Living Standard Income Level
(LLSIL)
Program uses:
70% LLSIL used by WIA to define:
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National Results
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
2002 2003 2004
Program Year
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National Results
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
2002 2003 2004
Program Year
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National Results
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
2002 2003 2004
Program Year
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Quarterly Census of Employment
and Wages (QCEW)
Ron Fionte
Branch Chief
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
(617) 565-2335
fionte.ronald@bls.gov
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The Quarterly Census of Employment
and Wages Program: What is it?
not a sample
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QCEW Output:
Macrodata & Microdata
Macrodata Output:
Published data summed by location,
industry and ownership
Number of establishments, monthly
employment, and quarterly wages
Summed by geographical area, industry
(NAICS) code and ownership
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QCEW Output:
Macrodata & Microdata
Microdata Output:
Confidential establishment level data;
generally for internal use only
Sample frame for establishment surveys
Geocode-able, providing a detailed
mapping reference
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Macrodata Output: Employment
Bill Meehan
Principal Economist
Division of Research and Statistics,
New York State Department of Labor
(518) 457-1300
us0bpm@labor.state.ny.us
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How Pre-Program Earnings
Relate to Post-Program Earnings
Pre-program earnings can be a predictor
of post-program earnings. In general:
The higher the pre-program earnings of a
group of participants, the higher the post-
program earnings
The lower the pre-program earnings of a
group of participants, the lower the post-
program earnings
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How Much Higher; How Much
Lower?
In the Adult program in PY 2005 in New
York State:
A 1 dollar change in pre-program earnings
resulted in:
a 50 cent change in post-program earnings
In the Dislocated Worker program in PY
2005 in New York State:
A 1 dollar change in pre-program earnings
resulted in:
a 30 cent change in post-program earnings
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How Was the Relationship
Determined?
Simple observation of an apparent
relationship between pre- and post-
program earnings
Relationship was recognized under JTPA
The 30 cent and 50 cent relationships
were determined using a regression
analysis with pre-program earnings as the
independent variable and post-program
earnings as the dependent variable
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How strong is the relationship between
pre- and post-program earnings?
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Pre- and Post-program Earnings in
Recent Years in New York State --
Adults
AVERAGE PRE AND POST PROGRAM EARNINGS
TOTAL 18,028 $ 6,905 $ 11,462 19,812 $ 7,125 $ 11,493 27,087 $ 6,367 $ 10,812
$1-$2,500 2,710 $ 1,140 $ 8,343 2,786 $ 1,152 $ 7,975 4,128 $ 1,135 $ 7,766
$2,501-$5,000 2,151 $ 3,707 $ 8,594 2,261 $ 3,739 $ 8,713 3,361 $ 3,708 $ 8,294
$5,001-$7,500 1,761 $ 6,231 $ 9,891 2,087 $ 6,214 $ 9,658 2,747 $ 6,191 $ 9,343
$7,500-$10,000 1,561 $ 8,720 $ 10,975 1,856 $ 8,726 $ 10,912 2,327 $ 8,711 $ 10,626
$10,001-$15,000 2,296 $ 12,326 $ 13,320 2,615 $ 12,348 $ 12,969 3,238 $ 12,306 $ 13,023
> $15,000 2,708 $ 22,352 $ 20,226 3,024 $ 22,505 $ 19,919 3,548 $ 22,036 $ 19,810
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Source: PY 2005 Qtr 3 WIASRD. Includes exiters from 4/1/2004 to 3/31/2005
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General Performance Issues
QUESTIONS?
ETAPerforms@dol.gov
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