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I hope you will enjoy and profit from this overview of learning curves. As always, I enjoy your feedback
Duncan Williamson April 2001
April 2001
Learning Curves 1
Learning curves are a vital aspect of the work of many business and commercial settings. The more we do a job, the quicker we do it the man who made 6 million boxes!
Learning Curves 2
Learning Curves 3
80% Learning Rate Batches Total Time 1 50.00 2 80.00 4 128.00 8 204.80 128 1,342.18 CAT
Learning Curves 4
80% Learning Rate Batches Total Time 1 50.00 2 80.00 4 128.00 8 204.80 128 1,342.18 CAT 50.00 40.00 32.00 25.60 10.49
Learning Curves 5
Batches 1 2 4 8 128 No Learning Total Time 50.00 100.00 200.00 400.00 6,400.00 CAT 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00
Learning Curves 6
Learning Curves 9
Learning Curves 10
Units 5 10 20 40 640 Average Cost/unit 80% Learning No Learning 10.00 10.00 16.00 20.00 25.60 40.00 40.96 80.00 268.44 1,280.00
Learning Curves 11
Learning curve: 80%
60.000
50.000
40.000
CAT
30.000
20.000
10.000
Batch Number
Learning Curves 12
Learning curve: 90%
60.000
50.000
40.000
CAT
30.000
20.000
10.000
Batch Number
Learning Curves 13
Learning curve: 60%
60.000
50.000
40.000
CAT
30.000
20.000
10.000
Batch Number
Its very difficult to calculate or predict the CAT for anything other than the CAT at the DOUBLING POINT: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 128
Duncan Williamson April 2001
and
= -0.32193
10.48576
This means that at 128 batches, CAT = 10.48576 So total time = 10.48576 * 128 = 1,342.18
26.2141
This means that at 64 batches, CAT = 26.2141 So total time = 26.2141 * 64 = 1,677.71
35.4298
This means that at 32 batches, CAT = 35.4298 So total time = 35.4298 * 32 = 2,125.787
Learning Curves 21
Learning Curves 22
Raw materials
Purchased parts
93 96%
85 88%
Learning Curves 23
For the rest of this session, well look at ways of assessing our own learning rates
Duncan Williamson April 2001
3
4
Duncan Williamson April 2001
5 6 7
8
9 10
Learning Curves 25
Of course, everyone would like to think that they are The smartest person on the planet; but our Experiments can not confirm that we are. Heres why
eg all the sentences in the writing experiment had An average of 33 letters in them The number grids all had the SAME 20 numbers in them
The observer will learn from the first guinea pig: we Found that the second person to carry out an Experiment had a much quicker 1st trial time than The first guinea pig.
CAT
trials
session 1 session 2
Write to me: duncan.williamson@tesco.net at any time to discuss these slides. April 2001