Presented By Shubhendra Singh Ujjwal Kishore Vijay Kumar Sharma Shruti Nair Sujeet Kumar

Risk Assessment
Risk assessment and risk analysis of technical systems
can be defined as a set of systematic methods to:
Identify hazards Quantify risks Determine components, safety measures and/or human

interventions important for plant safety

Risk assessment
Risk analysis is teamwork Ideally risk analysis should be done by bringing together experts with different backgrounds:
chemicals human error process equipment

Risk assessment is a continuous process!

Risk Assessment
System definition

Hazard identification
Analysis of accident scenarios
Estimation of accident frequencies
Consequence analysis and modelling

Scheme for qualitative and quantitative assessments At all steps, risk reducing measures need to be considered

Risk estimation

What is Risk Analysis?

The process of identifying, assessing, and reducing risks to an acceptable level
Defines and controls threats and vulnerabilities Implements risk reduction measures

An analytic discipline with three parts:

Risk assessment: determine what the risks are Risk management: evaluating alternatives for

mitigating the risk Risk communication: presenting this material in an understandable way to decision makers and/or the public

Who should be Involved?

Security Experts
Internal domain experts Knows best how things really work Managers responsible for implementing controls

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Risk analysis steps

Step 1: Identify Scope Bound the problem Step 2: Assemble team Include subject matter experts, management in charge of implementing, users Step 3: Identify Threats Pick from lists of known threats Mixing threats and vulnerabilities .

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Step 4: Threat prioritization

Prioritize threats for each assert Likelihood of occurrence Define a fixed threat rating E.g., Low(1) High(5) Associate a rating with each threat

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Step 5: Loss Impact

With each threat determine loss impact
Define a fixed ranking E.g., Low(1) High(5) Used to prioritize damage to asset from threat

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Step 6: Total impact

Sum of threat priority and impact priority

Threat

Fire
Water Theft

Threat Priority 3 2 2

Impact Priority 5 5 3

Risk Factor 8 7 5
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Step 7: Identify Controls/Safeguards

Set of possible controls
Associate controls with each threat Starting with high priority risks

Step 8: Communicate Results

Most risk analysis projects result in a written report Generally not read Make a good executive summary Beneficial to track decisions. Real communication done in meetings an

presentations

Consequence Analysis
The process of examining the possible effects of a

planned activity. Consequence means Something that logically or naturally follows from an action or condition.

Consequence assessment Need

The consequence assessment is used to estimate: The extent or distance to which casualties or damage may occur as a consequence of an accident; The conditional probability of loss of life or damage as a consequence of an accident;

PROCESS
Step 1:-Identify one critical event the initiating event Step 2 :-Identify the effects of this event, using event tree method Step 3 :-Determine what protective actions should be triggered these form the decision boxes in the chart Step 4 :-Consider the effects of these actions note that actions may fail, or be triggered in the wrong circumstances Step 5 :-Represent the results of steps 2-4 in consequence notation Step 6 :-Identify potential causes of the initiating event, and represent the results in fault tree notation Step 7 :-Identify potential causes of failure of the protective mechanisms; represent these as fault trees resulting in the NO branch of the decision box

Pros and Cons

Advantages very expressive notation with high information density can express interactions of multiple failures and protective mechanisms work-through of consequences relates failures to safety / hazard implications can be used for probabilistic analysis (though this is very complex however, some tools exist) Disadvantages hard to use requires very skilled analyst(s) difficulty of modelling increases very rapidly with system complexity has not been widely adopted perhaps because of difficulty of use but is gaining favour, e.g. with Railtrack

Consequence analysis information for RMP

Physical state of the chemical released
Quantity released Rate of release Duration of release Wind speed/direction Topography Distance to end point Population within distance to end point Public/environmental receptors

Consequence event tree for a flammable pressure-liquefied gas instantaneous rupture

Pressureliquefied Gas

Instantaneous Tank Rupture

Immediate ignition BLEVE

Instantaneous Cloud/ Pool Evaporation

Dispersion

Near miss

Ignition and detonation Explosion

Delayed Ignition Flash fire

BLEVE

Consequence event tree for a flammable pressure-liquefied gas hole below liquid level
Pressureliquefied Gas

Two-phase jet

No ignition Dispersion

Immediate ignition Jet Fire

No ignition Near miss

Delayed Ignition Flash fire

Ignition and detonation Explosion

2-phase jet

Different forms of dispersion in the atmosphere

Jet High speed (high momentum), rapid mixing, single direction Dense (= denser than air) clouds: Dense gas slumps in all directions (even against the wind) Dense clouds are concentrated Density layering (stratification) reduces mixing Buoyant (= lighter than air) plume plume rise

Dense gas cloud

Consequence assessment in practice

Consequence assessment is often an expert-activity

(performed by consultants) Most complete consequence assessment software packages are expensive Some software is available for specific consequences (ARCHIE, ALOHA etc.) Some models are described in detail in handbooks (e.g. Yellow Book, TNO, Netherlands book)