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@ KAMLESH JAIN
THE BULLWHIP EFFECT & AN ILLUSTRATION OF THE BULLWHIP EFFECT Stakeholders along the supply chain have different and frequently conflicting objectives. Accordingly, they often operated independently, resulting in a phenomenon called the bullwhip effect on demand and supply.
@ KAMLESH JAIN
Vendor Managed Inventory Eg. Wal-Mart and Procter & Gamble, The VMI Partnership
@ KAMLESH JAIN
MATERIAL FLOW
Source: Johnson & Pike, 1999
Raw materials enter into a manuafacturing organization via a supply system and are transformed into finished goods. Finished goods are then supplied to the consumers through a distribution system. Several companies linked together in the process, each adding value to the product as it moves through the supply chain.
(HENRY C. CO)
Information Flow
Products or services usually flow from supplier to to customer. Design and demand information usually flow from customer to supplier.
(HENRY C. CO)
BIG DOLLARS
U.S. inventory investment: 20% - 25% of GDP
U.S. grocery pipeline $75 - $100 billion
U.S. transportation & warehousing expense: 10% of GDP U.S. companies: 25% of corporate budgets on SCM
Inventory carrying, transportation, warehousing, order management, supply chain financing, related IT expenses Benchmarking Partners, June 1999
(HENRY C. CO)
HIGH LEVERAGE
Impact on profit increase sales by $12 = $1 savings in the supply chain Impact on sales trend towards competing on service surrounding the product (high quality, low cost assumed) High availability Delivery speed Order status (eg, Internet order tracking) Impact on stock price profit + assets ROA
(HENRY C. CO)
INCREASING CHALLENGES
Shrinking product life-cycles Increasing product variety Food product introductions: 1980: 2,000 1991: 18,000 1997: 25,000
(HENRY C. CO)
10
OPPORTUNITIES
Average on-time delivery performance in the United States is probably in the 50 to 60 percent range, at a time when competition & consumer pressure are driving requirements up to the 99 percent range. (Conway, R.W. 1996, Linking MRP II and FCS, APICS The Performance Advantage, June, 40-44) Material idle 80%+ of factory throughput time (Vollmann, Berry, & Whybark 1997)
(HENRY C. CO)
11
Best-in-class (e.g., Dell, Wal-Mart) SCM expense about 12% of corporate budget (versus overall average of 25%) (World Research Advisory Fax Newsletter 1/22/99)
(HENRY C. CO)
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OPPORTUNITIES
Improving supply chains globally judged a major trend by 78% of 2,500 CEOs of companies with revenues > $100 million (Business Week, 12/12/98) Deloitte Consulting survey - SCM ranked as critical to very important to companys success by 91% of senior managers at 240 North American manufacturers (CIO, 7/1/99)
Only 2% ranked their supply chain as world-class
(HENRY C. CO)
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A way to identify, acquire, and retain customers. A way of automating the front office functions of sales, marketing, and customer service. A technology-enabled business strategy whereby companies leverage increased customer knowledge to build profitable relationships, based on optimizing value delivered to and realized from their customers. For some vendors, whatever their current product may be, that is CRM.
(HENRY C. CO)
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CRM ARCHITECTURE
Customer Life Cycle CRM Key Focus
Acquire
(new customers) Differentiation Innovation Convenience
Enhance
(purchase value) Bundling Reduce cost Customer service Repeatable process
Retain
(existing customers) Adaptability Listening New product Loyalty program
Core Process
Direct Marketing
Sales Force Automation
Cross-/Up-Selling
Proactive Service
Telephone, Fax, E-mail, Web, VRU (Voice Response Unit) Legacy Systems + Computer/Internet Telephony Integration (CTI/ITI) + Data Warehousing + Decision Support Technology (data model analysis)
Connectivity Web Application sharing Interactive TV Videoconferencing Interactive chat Mobile Smart phones Wireless modem Handheld devices Network Center Access to legacy data Wireless IP Natural language recognition Speech recognition
Applications Internet and Web Content management Personalization Management Operations Benchmarking Metrics/TCO measurement Customer Intelligence Customer satisfaction survey Data mining Enterprise access
Technologies Future Technology Intelligent agents Smart cards Speech Middleware Corba, COM/DCOM, EAI Application Development C++, Visual C++, HTML, DHTML, XML Industry Verticals Banks, retail, wholesale, private Software, Telecomm, Government
Business Intelligence Advanced BI development tools Query, reporting, OLAP (Source: Maoz, Gartner Symposium ITxpo 2000) viewers