Office of Economic and Social Development Boar

Boa

Thailand Economic
and Social Performance
(2001-2006)

March,
8 August2006
2006 www.nesdb.go.th
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Content
1. Thailand Economy in 2000- 2005: Various
Obstacles
and Constraints

2. Economic and Social Measures

3. Economic and Social during 2001-2005

3.1 Economic Situation

(Agricultural Sector, Industrial Sector, Tourism, International Trade,

Employment, Measures to Increase Household Income, Poverty and

Income
Distribution , Financial sector and Capital Market, Fiscal sector,
Economic
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 Economic Performance during 2000-2005
: Various Obstacles
%
5

2001 : 4

3
US Japan Exports growth (฿)
Terrorist in USA. (911 incidence) 2

1
sharply dropped
and World Economic slowdown 0 from 27.0% in 2000
2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548

to 2.6% in 2001
-1
ที่มา IMF
-2

1,200 150

2002-2003: 1,000 100

Number of tourists

USA-Iraq War (the end

800 50
declined from 10.8 millions
600 0
of 2002) and SARs 400 -50 in 2002 to 10.0 millions in
Epidemic (in March 200
2545 2546 2547 2548 2549
-100 2003 (-7.4%) and tourism
2003) จำำนวนนักท่องเที่ยว ( %) revenues decreased by
ทีม่ า ททท.
15,000 million baht in 2004

In 2004,
2004: Frozen chicken
Bird Flu Epidemic export decreased by
20,000 millions baht

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Economic Performance during 2000-2005
: Various Obstacles
 High Oil Prices
• Dubai oil price has increased from US$26.8/Barrel
$/bbl
85 OMAN
ดู ไบ
at the end of 2004 to $53.5/Barrel at the end of
2005 and $70.5/Barrel in August 2, 2006
75 สิง คโปร์ 95
สิง คโปร์ HSD
65
55
45
• Diesel price has increased sharply from 13.9
35
baht/litter at the end of 2002 to 23.5 baht at the
25
15 end of 2005 and 27.5 in August 2, 2006
2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 2549

• Import bills for fuel and oil products totaled 13,150 million US$ (531,709
million baht) in 2004 and increased to 20,920 million US$ (842,737 million
baht) in 2005

 Drought • Crop production was hit by drought

• The impacts were estimated at 19,365.6 million baht
in 2004 and about 17,950.6 million baht in 2005

• As a consequence of Tsunami, number of tourists

 Tsunami dropped by 130,000 people in 2005 (-1.1%)
• Tourists revenues loss was about 2,900 million baht
in 2005. (losses of property were estimated at 64,000
million baht)

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Dual Track Policy Aimed for Balancing
Government Policy : Generating Income, Reducing
Expenditures, and Extending Opportunities
Creating Income Measure:
• One Tambon One Product Project (OTOP)
• Increase minimum wage rate in Bangkok from 165 baht in
2001 to 184 baht in 2005
• Increase government salary base twice, total raise of 13%, in 2004 and
2005. This includes lifting of minimum salary base to 7,000 baht and
additional 1,000 baht for those whose salary was higher than 7000 but
lower than 10,000 baht
• Seeking/extending new export markets, implementing promotion
measures, and building confidence for foreign investors
• Promoting new tourist’s destinations, Opening new airport
“Suwannaphumi Airport”, and Establishing Natural Warning System to
build tourists’ confidence.
• Intervention of agricultural prices to increase farm income; paddy and
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Dual Track Policy Aimed for Balancing
Reduce Expenditure
• “Debt suspension for farmers” project

• “Nation Wide Health Care System: 30 Baht medical care system”

• “Fix it Center” project
• Promotion of the use of alternative energy sources, natural gas,
bio-diesel, and gasohol

Provide Opportunities
• Village Funds, People Bank, SMEs Bank
• Assets Capitalization
• SML budget and CEO budget

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Social and Natural Resources Policy
Main Policy
• Nation-wide health care system (30 baht health care scheme) and
promote appropriate eating behaviours and life-style to prevent illness
• Educational reforms and encouraging life-long learning such as “One
Dream-school in One Amphur”, Developing internet system for
education, and extending educational opportunity via “One Amphur
One Scholarship”, and “Income Contingency Loan (ICL)”
• Housing Project for the poor
• Suppressing influential peoples and eradicating drugs problem

• Rehabilitation of soil and forest, and resolving water-

shortage problem
• Developing the map size of 1 to 4000 ration to improve
land using/reshaping and promote equity land
ownership distribution
• Public Sector Reform and increasing efficiency of State-
Enterprises management
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 Economic and Social Changing
during 2001-2005

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 Macro Economic and Social
Thailand economic had continued to grow. Gross Domestic Products
ncreased from 4.9 trillion baht in 2000 to 7.1 trill.baht in 2005, a 44.3%
ncrease
•Per capita income increased from 79,100
Baht/year in
2000 to 109,700 baht/year in 2005
• Household income has increased from 145,800
baht/year in 2000 to 179,556 baht/year in 2004
2000 2001 2002 2 2004 2005 Q1/
003 49p
GDP at current price 4.92 5.13 5.45 5.93 6.50 7.10 1.93
(trill.baht)

GDP (%) 4.8 2.2 5.3 7.0 6.2 4.5 6.0

Per capital income 79.1 81.9 86.3 93.1 101.3 109.7 118.4
(thousand baht)
Source: NESDB and NSO
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Agricultural
Sector
Agri. Price Farm Income
Farm income increased from 31,972
baht/person/year
in 2000 to 51,870 baht/person/year in 2005
2000 2005 2006
444,185 706,285 196,352
Agricultural products
Mil.baht Mil.baht Mil.baht (Q1)
( 9.8% per year) ( 23.3% YOY)

Value of main crops 205,104 408,505 207,281

( paddy, rubber, tapioca, Mil.baht Mil.baht Mil.baht (H1
sugarcane, and oil palm) (14.1% per year) (44.7% YOY)

291,956 418,086 230,606

Agricultural Export value Mil.baht Mil.baht (H1
Mil.baht
(9.8% per year) (22.7% YOY)

Source: NESDB, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, Ministry of Commerce

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Industrial sector
2000 2005 2006

1.65 2.47 683,646 (Q1)

Manufacturing Trill.baht Trill.baht Mil.baht
products (8.4 % per year) (13.5 % YOY)

2.38 3.89 2.06 (H1)

Manufacturing Trill.baht Trill.baht Trill.baht
Exports (10.6 % per year) (10.6 % YOY)

Value of high potential 1.18 1.97 1.07 (H1)

manufacturing export Trill.baht Trill.baht Trill.baht
(11.3 % per year) (20.3 % YOY)
goods
(Automobile & parts , Electronics & parts,
Electrical Appliances, and Petrochemical)
Source: NESDB, Ministry of Commerce

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Tourism
2000 2005 2006

9.51 11.52 6.2 (H1)

Number Mil. persons Mil. persons
Mil. persons
of tourists (4.2% per year) (19.1% YoY)

Tourism 299,536 406,535 124,369

Mil.baht Mil.baht Mil.baht (Q1)
receipts (6.7% per year) (25.2% YOY)

Sources : TAT, BOT

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International Trade
2000 2005 2006(H1)

67,889 109,211 59,683

Total Export
Mil. US$ Mil. US$ Mil. US$

Trade Balance *
5,466 deficit 8,578deficit 1,929
(surplus decrease and turn to Mil. US$ Mil. US$ Mil. US$
deficit)

Net Services 3,862 4,864 2,432

Mil. US$ Mil. US$ Mil. US$

Current Account Balance 9,328 deficit 3,714 503

Mil. US$ Mil. US$
(surplus decrease and turn to deficit) Mil. US$
Source: Bank of Thailand

* Due to high oil price in 2005, Thailand paid an extra import bills of oil and fuel
products
approximately 7,700 mil.US$ (from 13.15 bil.US$ in 2004 to 20.92 bil.US$ in 2005)
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 FTA: Thailand – Economic Partnership Agreement
(China, India, Australia, and New Zealand)

Export Import Trade Balance

TOTAL trade with 609.06 618.06 deficit 9.0

Economic Partnership
Agreement (Oct.2003-May
Bil.Baht Bil.Baht Bil.Baht
2006)
Thailand - China 382.9 419.2 deficit 36.2
(Oct.2003 – May.2006) Bil.Baht Bil.Baht Bil.Baht

Thailand-India 20.5 5.9 14.6

(Sep.2004 – May.2006) Bil.Baht Bil.Baht Bil.Baht

Thailand- 187.0 183.5 3.5

Australia Bil.Baht Bil.Baht Bil.Baht
(Jan.2005 –
May.2006)
Thailand-New Zealand 18.7 9.5 9.1
(Jul.2005 – May.2006) Bil.Baht Bil.Baht Bil.Baht
Source: Ministry of Commerce
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Employment
• Employment increased about 800,000 people per year generated by
continuous economic growth, government policy to encourage grass
roots economies such as encouraging new entrepreneurs, OTOP
project, people bank, and village funds protects
• Unemployment rate declined from 3.6% in 2000 to 1.7% in 2005 which
was lower than the Natural Rate of Unemployment of the country

Unit : million 2000 2005 2006 June

persons

Employment 31.3 35.3 35.8

Unemployment 1.19 0.62 0.56

Unemployment
3.6 1.7 1.5
Rate %
Source: Ministry of Labour
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Household Income
Creating income measures
 Increase minimum wage rate in Bangkok from 165 baht in 2001 to
184 baht in 2005
 Increase government salary base twice, a total raise of 13%, in
2004 and 2005. Also lifting minimum salary base to 7,000 baht
and adding 1,000 baht more for those whose salary is lower than
10,000 baht
 Create agricultural price stability and increase income from
agricultural products
 OTOP : Total sales
2002 2005
increased from
16,714 million baht 16,714 54,448
in 2002 to 54,448
million baht in 2005 Mil. ฿ Mil.฿
 SME: Credit approval increased from 81.1 billion baht in 2002 to
194.6
billion baht in 2005
 Village Funds: extended credit to the total of 18.9 million
borrowers with the amount of 255.4 billion baht (accumulated from
July 2001 to June 2006)
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Poverty reduced and income distribution
improved
2000 2004

79,098 101,305
Per capita income
baht baht

Number of poor 12.8 7.1

people declined Million persons Million persons

147,270 216,669
Income share of lowest
level (1st Quintile)
Mil. ฿ ฿
Mil.
(3.9%) (4.5%)

Income share of middle level1,457,598 1,954,834

(middle groups, 60%) Mil. ฿ Mil.฿
(38.6%) (40.6%)
Source: NESDB
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Situation of Financial Institutions
improved
 NPLs declined from 1.22 Trill.baht (25.29% of total credit) by the
end of 2000 to 476,647 mil.baht (8.16% of total credit) by the end
of 2005  TAMC has been transferred NPLs worth of 777.2
billion baht from banks and AMCs during 2001-
2005. Of this amount, resolutions have been
reached for 772.3 billion baht worth of NPLs ;
including debt restructuring and rehabilitation of
560 billion baht (72.5%), and enforcement of
End of End of End of June
collateral of 212.2 billion baht (27.5%)
2000 2005 2006
1.22 476,647 484,265
Total NPLs
Trill.baht Mil.baht Mil.baht
Share to
25.29% 8.16% 8.23%
Total credit (%)
ท่ีมา : ธนาคารแห่งประเทศไทย
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Larger Capital Market

End of 2000 End of 2005

Set Index 269.13 713.73

Market
1.28 5.11
Capitalization trill.baht trill.baht

Source: Stock Exchange of

Thailand
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Better performance of States Owned Enterprises
57 SOEs (Including 2000 2005
PTT.Plc.)
Net Profit 62,016 137,095
increased 75,079 mil.Baht mil.Baht
mill.Baht
Total Asset Value 2.02 2.74
increased 0.7 trill.Baht Trill.Baht Trill.Baht

Government Income 39,131 102,077

avg. increased 12,589 mill.Baht/yearMil.Baht Mil.Baht
PTT Group
12,280 85,521
Net Profit
mil.Baht mil.Baht
Total Asset Value 229,854 649,807
mil.Baht mil.Baht

Government revenue 6,102 35,344

mil.Baht mil.Baht
Stock Price 35.75 Baht
226 Baht
(First Trading on Dec. 6, 01)

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Fiscal Sector

2000 2005

Government revenues increased748,104 1,264,928

12.2% increase mil.Baht mil.Baht
from 2004 - 2005

deficit
In 2006, Government manages to achieve Budget
110,000
budget balance for the first time after
mil.Baht Balance
continued budget deficit since 2001

Source: Fiscal Policy Office

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 Economic Stability
2000 2005 2006 June
International 32,661 52,066 58,057
reserves Mil.USD Mil.USD Mil. USD
(repay IMF loan
= 17.2 Bill-US$)
2,807 3,296 3,228
Public Debt / Bil.baht Bil.baht Bil.baht
GDP (57.0%) (46.4%) (41.7%)
(May 2006)
79,715 52,040 56,813
External debt Mil.USD Mill. USD Mill. USD
(Q1/2006)
Baht gained strength 40.16 40.27 38.71
Baht/USD Baht /USD Baht /USD
(Avg. 2001) (H1 Avg.)
Bank of Thailand, Ministry of Finance,

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Social : quality of life and education
opportunities have improved
Public health : About 96.25% of total population hav
been covered by health care scheme
(30 baht medical care).

Social security : Drug-related cases reduced

2000 2005 Q1/2006

Share of people covered

by Health Care 78.2% 96.25% 95.6%
Scheme/insurance

Drug-related
cases 420.7 160.3 34.8
(to 100,000
heads)

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Social : education opportunities have been
extended
 9 years compulsory education has been extended to all
children and youth. Junior high school students increased from
82.7% in 2000 to 95.9% of population in this cohorts in 2005
 Enrollment rate to high school level increased from 57.4% in
2000 to 64.0% in 2005. However, this rate is still low.
 Share of labour with high school degree or higher increased
from 19.7% in 2000 to 24.9% in 2005
2000 2005
Junior high enrollment
(% of total pop. of junior high 82.7% 95.9%
age group)

Enroll. Rate to
57.4% 64.0%
High school

242,759
Education lending 74,850 212,393 (FY2006 includes
fund (mil. Baht) ICL 5,493 mil.baht)

Labour with high 25.9%

school degree or higher 19.7% 24.9% (Q1/2006)
(% of employment)

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Thank you..
WWW.NESDB.GO.TH

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