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8
Stock Price Behavior and Market Efficiency
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Dont try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It cant be done except by liars. -Bernard Baruch
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Technical Analysis
Technical analysis differs significantly from fundamental analysis. Technical analysis is a controversial set of techniques for predicting market direction based on
Historical price and volume behavior Investor sentiment
Technical analysts essentially search for bullish (positive) and bearish (negative) signals about stock prices or market direction.
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Dow Theory, I.
The Dow theory is a method that attempts to interpret and signal changes in the stock market direction. Historically, quite popular. The Dow theory identifies three forces:
a primary direction or trend, a secondary reaction or trend, and daily fluctuations
The primary direction is either bullish or bearish, and reflects the long-run direction of the market.
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10,000
Level
9,000
8,000
7,000
01/01
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07/02 Date
10/02
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10/03
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If ONE index departs from the primary direction, this is not a signal. However, if a departure in one is followed by a departure in the other, this is viewed is confirmation that the trend has changed.
The trend is your friend
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A breakout occurs when a stock (or the market) passes through either a support or a resistance level.
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Month 1 2 3 4 5 6
Stock B (2 Shares)
$100 96 90 80 78 76
Relative Strength
1.00 1.00 0.98 1.10 1.03 1.00
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Index Level
9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 1/2/02 3/6/02 5/7/02 7/9/02 9/9/02 11/7/02 1/10/03 Date 3/14/03 5/15/03 7/17/03 9/17/03
Note the "whipsaw" actioni.e., plenty of buying and selling signals. This happens because 15 and 50 may be too "close" together in time.
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Candlestick Formations
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Chart Formations
Once a chart is drawn, technical analysts examine it for various formations or pattern types in an attempt to predict stock price or market direction. One example is the head-and-shoulders formation.
When the stock price pierces the neckline after the right shoulder is finished, it is time to sell.
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The Super Bowl indicator forecasts the direction of the market based on who wins the game.
Two Conference representatives play in the Super Bowl: one from the National Football Conference and one from the American Football Conference. A win by the National Football Conference (or one of the original members of the National Football League) is bullish.
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Market Efficiency
The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is a theory that asserts: As a practical matter, the major financial markets reflect all relevant information at a given time. Market efficiency research examines the relationship between stock prices and available information.
The important research question: Is it possible for investors to beat the market? Prediction of the EMH theory: If a market is efficient, it is not possible to beat the market (except by luck).
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A Semistrong-form Efficient Market is one in which publicly available information is of no use in beating the market.
If so, then fundamental analysis is of little use.
A Strong-form Efficient Market is one in which information of any kind, public or private, is of no use in beating the market.
If so, then inside information is of little use.
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The driving force toward market efficiency is simply competition and the profit motive. Even a relatively small performance enhancement can be worth a tremendous amount of money (when multiplied by the dollar amount involved). This creates incentives to unearth relevant information and use it.
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Chart patterns:
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Chapter Review, I.
Technical Analysis
Dow Theory Support and Resistance Levels Technical Indicators Charting
Relative Strength Moving Average Hi-Lo-Close and Candlestick Point-and-Figure
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