ARGENTINA Oligarchic Democracy (1880-1916)

Landowners rule Argentina had huge potential: but needed capital and labor Capital: provided by British investment Open immigration policy: huge wave of migrants from Europe Economic boom: Argentinas economy top ten in the world Agro-export model: grains, meat.

Deepened democracy and dictatorship (1917-1943)

Radical party created by disaffected middleclass (wanted political voice) Saez Pena law: universal male suffrage, compulsory voting. (but half of adult males left out because foreign-born). UCR becomes electorally invincible Yrigoyen (UCR) main political figure of the time
Focused on middle class; sidelined working class Opposition to Yrigoyen across political spectrum (workers, socialists, landowners, military) Class warfare: labor activism vs. antilabor hysteria!

Cont.
1930 coup detat 1930s: Infamous decade (fraudulent elections) Military sought to create a neofacist system and stop class warfare
They viewed democracy as the problem

Class consciousness growing, workers lacked political representation. Enter Juan Peron!

Rise and Fall of Juan Peron (194355)

Juan Peron: military colonel Uses secretary of labor post to build political support. How?
Pushing for wage increases and benefits Representing workers vis--vis business

1946 elections: Peron against alliance of parties Peron wins. Implements ISI, redistributes income to workers

Cont.
Eva Peron: headed foundation dispensing cash and benefits
Anti-oligarchic rhetoric Developed fanatical, loyal following Evan-Peron: formidable political tandem 1951: Peron reelected
Authoritarian measures, such as closing opposition newspapers Nationalizes foreign industry

Enemies of peronism develop in sections of military

Peron attempts to politicize the military Peronism: anti-Church, alienating army conservatives.

Impossible game (1955-66)

Ultimatum to Peron: resign or face civil war Peronists commanded majority support among population (40-60%) Impossible game: military unwilling to accept democracy led by Peronists; citizens unwilling to accept democracy without Peronists Elections excluded Peronists, when they were included military would stage a coup UCR governments lacked legitimacy Peron in exile. Labor union strikes fostered ungovernability

Military rule and Perons return

Military proclaims an Argentina revolution: heightened restrictions on civil rights, goal is order and stability From exile, Peron inspires leftists youths to rebel: creation of Montoneros and Shirtless Command Political violence rises, labor union, former generals leaders killed Military allows Peronists to contest 1973 elections but without Peron! Perons puppet (Hector Campora) runs and wins

Military rule: El Proceso (1976-83)

1976: the coup to end all coups Goal: establish a Process of National Reconstruction: reeducate populace in morality, uprightness and efficiency Unprecedented repression of dissidents, democrats, leftists 9,000 to 20,000 disappeared (i.e. killed) Growing mismanagement of the economy (debt and inflation) Falklands war: a failed attempt to regain lost legitimacy Argentina loses war, and the military loses credibility.

Interests Groups
Argentine Rural Society: reactionary organization, supported coups Argentine Industrial Union: antiperonist, promarket, protrade General Labor Confederation: most powerful labor union in LA (Peronist) Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo Piqueteros (movement of the unemployed)

Parties
Radical party (UCR) Advocated political and civil rights, Failed presidencies of Alfonsin and De la RUa have doomed the partys prospects Now in disarray (2% of vote ni 2003 elections) Peronist party Economic nationalism, pro-labor Effective political machine due to patronage networks (public employment, public goods) Movement rather than modern party (sought absolute power, did not consider opposition parties legitimate, etc..) Undefined ideology: right-wing and left-wing

Raul Alfonsin (1983-89)

Promotes human rights Cut military spending, civilianized the military Believer in democracy: with democracy one is educated, one eats, one is sheltered Faced the carapintada uprising made concessions to military (Due Obedience law, Full Stop law) Neglected the economy Faced an obstructionist, Peronist-controlled congress Economy out of control (huge budget deficits, etc..), huge socioeconomic crisis but democracy stood firm.

Carlos Menem (1990-99)

Peronist leader of authoritarian tendencies. Campaign slogan: follow me Centralized control in the executive (delegative democracy); Assault on judicial independence; extensive use of decrees Implemented Convertibility Law to stop inflation Boost of popularity: why? Econ stability Radical program of market reforms (privatization, free trade, limited the power of labor unions)

Menem, 94 Seeks Constitutional reform (1994), bullies opposition to allow for reelection and wins Mexico tequila crisis: economic downturn in Argentina Government spending (and deficits) out of control, used for political clientelism Unemployment creeps up, growth falters Menems political capital diminished Rivalry with Eduardo Duhalde (BA governor) Thinks about re-reelection (third term)

De la Rua (1999-2000)
FREPASO-Radical Alliance elected to office. Inherited an economy in deep trouble Unable to reform the economy, dependent on IMF funds Government bribed senators: Unwilling to ditch Convertibility formula: economy went on a freefall, foreign debt skyrocketed. Corralito established: Argentines unable to take out their savings from banks

Causes of the 2001 crisis

Convertibility formula: 1 peso=1 dollar exchange rate
Successful in containing hyperinflation. Unsustainable in long term Not recommended by the IMF!! Required strong fiscal discipline Hurt Argentine exports, and competitiveness Ticking time bomb Political costs of devaluation were high

Fiscal deficits Growing debt

Political causes
Menem sought reelection (a second time!) No support from his own party, peronist governors President-without-a-party condition Economic reforms by the wayside Spending race between governors and the president Fiscal discipline out the window! Increase in the national debt Politicians didnt seem to care: politics trumped economics Some of the reforms of the previous 8 years undone! Economy now highly vulnerable to economic shocks

 De La Ruas Radical party government 199-2001

Unprepared for the job Lack of expertise, few economists Unwilling to adjust to new economic situation Party advocated more govt spending! Party isolated president

2000-2001
Argentina declares largest debt default in history 2001: economy contracts by 14%!! De la Rua resigns amid social turmoil: cacerolazos (pot-banging); piqueteros (unemployed movement) Massive social upheaval: que se vayan todos throw all politicians out New transitional president chosen: Duhalde 2002: poverty rises to 53% of population, Argentina becomes a typical Latin American country

2003 elections
Peronist Nestor Kirschner chosen president Radical party evaporates with 3% of vote Reopens human rights issue Adopts a confrontational stance versus foreign companies, IMF Good economic growth 2003-2005 but Argentina has not started to pay back its foreign debt

Nestor Kirschner: 2003 Left wing Peronist

Repudiates neoliberal econ. Policies

Benefited from high economic growth Reopened human rights cases Foreign policy
Closer relations with Venezuela, Cuba Distancing from United States

First lady is the presidential candidate for 2007.

Cristina Kirschner
President from 2007 on. Confrontational stance vis--vis United States Links with Chavez: suitcase scandal. Increasing inflation, slower growth Confrontation with farmers: controversial export tax Popularity down from 70% to 30% End of the Kirschner political dynasty?

Explaining Argentinas political instability

Social mobilization running ahead of political institutionalization Collective action problem: defense of narrow interest, inability to reach agreements (factionalism within labor, business, and parties) The negative influence of Peronism: movement with hegemonic ambitions / nondemocratic Absence of a conservative party (thus the rich oligarchy resorts to the military)