Economic evaluation

Created By : Okky Pratama M | (124.10.025)

Outline

Objectives
Development Scenarios
Economic Evaluation
Sensitivity Analysis
Conclusion

Objectives

The economic analysis conducted to evaluate

the economic feasibility of development and
commercial exploitation

Development Scenarios
250000

Performance Prediction
200000

Production

150000

100000

50000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Oil Production 41467 18800 20202 19171 17732 17024 16455 15841 15204 14479 13894 13348 12911 12500 11263 10456 96438 87260 78867 71622

Economic Evaluation

Indicator

Rate of Return (ROR)

Net Present Value (NPV)

Pay Out Time (POT)

Profitability Index Ratio (PIR)

Economic Evaluation
FISCAL TERM
Fiscal Terms
Price Assumption
Discount Rate
Tax
DMOi
DMO Fee
Start of DMO
Contractor Share (After tax)
FTPi
FTP Share
Cost recovery
Depreaciation Method : Double Decline Balanced

Oil
85/Bbl
10,00%
44,00%
25,00%
15,00%
6
15,00%
10,00%
0,00%
100,00%

Unit
US$
Percent
Percent
Percent
Percent
th Year
Percent
Percent
Percent
Percent

Economic Evaluation

Economic Evaluation
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033

Production
(Bbl/Year)
0
41467
188001
202026
191710
177326
170243
164552
158418
152049
144792
138941
133487
129113
125000
112633
104564
96438
87260
78867
71622
1472699

Price
(US$/Bbl)
0
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85

Gross Revenue (M US$)

FTPi (M US$)

0
3524,721432
15980,07199
17172,17791
16295,34858
15072,74693
14470,68724
13986,91402
13465,56021
12924,18394
12307,33844
11810,01157
11346,41482
10974,61331
10624,99052
9573,811852
8887,965903
8197,191351
7417,085865
6703,670541
6087,90317
226823,4096

0
352,4721432
1598,007199
1717,217791
1629,534858
1507,274693
1447,068724
1398,691402
1346,556021
1292,418394
1230,733844
1181,001157
1134,641482
1097,461331
1062,499052
957,3811852
888,7965903
819,7191351
741,7085865
670,3670541
608,790317
22682,34096

Rev-FTP (M
Capital (M US$)
US$)
0
0
750
3172,249289
3934
14382,06479
0
15454,96012
0
14665,81372
0
13565,47224
0
13023,61851
0
12588,22262
0
12119,00419
0
11631,76555
0
11076,6046
0
10629,01041
0
10211,77334
0
9877,151981
0
9562,491466
0
8616,430667
0
7999,169313
0
7377,472216
0
6675,377278
0
6033,303487
0
5479,112853
4684
204141,0686

Economic Evaluation
Economic Indicators

Oil

Unit

Total Minimum Investment

16300

M US$

Total Expenditure

24959

M US$

Net Present Value @ 10%

10.240,07

Net Present Value Indonesia @ 10%

18.074,09

Payout Time

2,117463879

Internal Rate of Return

Profitability Index

Revenue Distribution
Total Net Recovery

Contractor

Total Net Share

Total Revenue

Percent

3,405

Fraction

13025,61773

22613,86191

Total Tax
Total Take

72,16%

Indonesia

Total FTP Share

47572,86191
226823,4096

Year

Unit
M US$

22682,34096

M US$

138800,1724

M US$

17768,03436

M US$

179250,5477

M US$
M US$

Economic Evaluation
Cash Flow, Cumulative Cash Flow vs. Time
25,000

Cash Flow, Cum. Cash Flow (1000 US$)

Cash Flow, 1000 US$

Cumulatif Cash Flow, 1000 US$

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

-5,000

Time (Year)

Economic Evaluation
Revenue Distribution
GOI
179250,5477
71%

Cost Recovery
24959
10%

Contractor Share
47572,86191
19%

Cost Recovery

Contractor Share
GOI

Economic sensitivity analysis

Spider Diagram for IRR
105

95

IRR, %

85

75

65

55

45
Capital
Non Capital
Operating Cost
Production
Oil Price

0.8
94.04
79.29
73.18
51.12
51.12

0.9
81.47
75.59
72.67
61
61

1
72.16
72.16
72.16
72.16
72.16

1.1
64.96
68.99
71.66
84.97
84.97

Economic sensitivity analysis

Spider Diagram for NPV
14,045

12,045

NPV, %

10,045

8,045

6,045

4,045

2,045

45
Capital
Non Capital
Operating Cost
Production
Oil Price

0.8
10540.76
10534.36
10357.15
7480
7480

0.9
10390.41
10387.22
10298.61
8860.44
8860.44

1
10240.07118
10240.07118
10240.07118
10240.07118
10240.07118

1.1
10089.73
10092.93
10181.53
11620.11
11620.11

Economic sensitivity analysis

Spider Diagram for GOI
250,045

200,045

GOI, %

150,045

100,045

50,045

45
Capital
Non Capital
Operating Cost
Production
Oil Price

0.8
180058.808
181232.9496
180761.2166
139099.1071
139099.1071

0.9
179654.6778
180241.7486
180005.8821
159174.8274
159174.8274

1
179250.5477
179250.5477
179250.5477
179250.5477
179250.5477

1.1
178846.4175
178259.3467
178495.2132
199326.268
199326.268

Economic sensitivity analysis

Berdasarkan indikator keekonomian menunjukkan

bahwa skenario pengembangan lapangan pada Block ini
dikatakan layak untuk dikembangkan.
Berdasarkan analisis sensitivitas keekonomian pada
hasil perhitungan di atas menunjukkan bahwa
pengembangan lapangan Block ini sangat sensitif
terhadap perubahan harga, sensitif terhadap perubahan
kapital dan produksi, serta kurang sensitif terhadap
perubahan operating cost dan non kapital.

Terima Kasih

Created By : Okky Pratama M | (124.10.025)