M I D - T E R M P R E S E N TAT I O N

S T U DY O N R E N E WA B L E E N E R G Y - I N T E G R AT E D G E N E R AT I O N E X PA N S I O N P L A N N I N G

AKIF ZIA KHAN STUDENT ID:1114201007 SUPERVISOR : DR. SUN YING YUN NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIVERSITY BEIJING, CHINA

BRIEF OVERVIEW

MODELLING AND CASE STUDY SIMULATION AND RESULTS

TIME LINE

A lot of work has been done to integrate larger amount of RES in grid but if only from the economical aspects, renewable generation technology cannot compete with traditional generating technology. If other factors are considered in the planning process, such as the impacts on the environment or social benefits, the results would be different

Approach of merging production (or generation) cost with external cost into a total specific cost increases competitiveness of non-fossil generation sources. To see the economic, environmental and structural impacts of a full internalisation of external costs in the electricity generation sector.

(External
Costs)

(Social
Costs) (Private Costs or Internal Costs)

External cost values used in this study have been taken from the outcomes of the European Commission (EC) Extern-E Project. The methodology used for this project applies the impact pathway approach The consecutive negative impacts (damage) are quantified using a damage function. Economic valuation of the damage is obtained by the willingness-to-pay of the affected individual to avoid a negative impact resulting

External cost per unit is taken from the Extern-E project and it is calculated as a function of Power Generation from a power plant
Further the external cost is scaled based on the population density in the region and carbon, sulphur content in coal. Finally,

MATHEMATICAL MODELLING

Chance Constrained Model

Genetic Algorithm

Linear Programming

 r it Cfi t

Set consisting of all the available technologies Discount Rate Number OF Units required of type i in year Capacity factor of unit i Average annual utilization hours

PDt

= the largest load in year t;

= the availability rate of the generation unit at peak load S.R = the spinning reserves ratio requirement of system. 1, 2 = the pre-defined confidential level of power constraints

SIMUULATION,CODING AND RESULTS

Opti Toolbox

GA
LP

VS

UNIT TYPE
WIND PV COAL

2012
400 0 350

2013
500 100 700

2014
500 150 700

2015
600 150 700

2016
700 250 1000

UNIT TYPE WIND PV COAL

2012 100 0 1000

2013 100 0 1000

2014 200 50 1000

2015 200 100 1000

2016 300 100 1000

CASE NAME
CASE 1(External Cost Considered) Power Generation of Wind Power Power Generation of Solar Power Power Generation of Coal Power Capital investment cost Operation cost External Costs of Energy Total Annual Costs Total Cummulative Cost CASE 2(External Cost Neglected) Power Generation of Wind Power Power Generation of Solar Power Power Generation of Coal Power Capital investment cost Operation cost Total Annual Costs Total Cummulative Cost

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year5

400 0 350 70,000 48,748 13,375 132,123 145,498

500 100 700 73,530 52,780 26,750 153,060 285,183

500 150 700 74,680 53,890 26,750 155,320 440,503

600 150 700 79,890 54,963 26,750 161,603 602106

700 250 1000 80,685 56,742 40,125 177,552 779658

100 0 1000 72,000 45,500 117,500 117,500

100 0 1000 72,000 45,500 117,500 235000

200 50 1000 74,450 47,000 121,450 356450

200 100 1000 75,000 47,500 122,500 478950

300 100 1000 76,500 48,000 124,500 603450

Progress Chart:

Task Completed

Impending Task

75%: Literature Review Data Gathering Mathematical Modeling Coding and Simulation 25%: Paper Publication Final Thesis Write up

July13-Sep13 Oct13-Dec13

Paper Submission Thesis Submission

RECOMMENDATIONS AND SUGGESTIONS