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WHAT IS A HYPOTHESIS?
A proposition, tentative assumption, or educated conjecture about some aspect of the world around us that is testable.
Usually derived from theoretical framework in quantitative approach
HYPOTHESIS TESTING
Hypothesis Testing. An inferential procedure that uses sample data to evaluate the validity of a hypothesis about a population. That is: hypotheses relate to populations but we usually test them with samples.
The null hypothesis is assumed to be true unless we find evidence to the contrary which then allows us to assume the alternate hypothesis is more likely correct.
SIGNIFICANCE LEVELS
The words no statistically significant difference/relationship in the Ho statement gives us a baseline to determine whether there has been any further effect beyond the chance level. We can thus set precise limits - our significance levels - for the rejection of a null hypothesis. This is the basic principle on which most statistical tests are based.
Strongly significant results may reach the 1% level (p < .01 or 1 in 100 by chance ) or even the .01% level (p < .001 or 1 in 1000 by chance). Any significance less than .001 is quoted in SPSS results as .000
Test statistic in here, reject null hypothesis. Only 2.5% or less values here
Test statistic in here, reject null hypothesis. Only 2.5% or less values here
-3
-1.96
-1
+1
+1.96
+3
Sampling Distribution
REFERRING TO STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE Reports refer to the significance level of a finding in many ways. All of the following are equivalent: The finding is significant at the .05 level The confidence level is 95 percent The type I error rate is .05 The alpha level is .05 = .05 There is a 95 percent certainty that the result is not due to chance There is a 1 in 20 chance of obtaining this result by chance The area of the region of rejection is .05 The pvalue is .05
p = .05
Thus the regions of rejection lie in both tails of the normal distribution Assuming an alpha level (significance level) of .05:
the rejection region to the right is marked by the critical value of +1.96 and contains .025 of the cases that to the left is at -1.96 and also contains .025 of cases
The probability remains the same (.05), but because it lies only in one tail of the distribution, the cut-off is a smaller critical value: 1.65 < 1.96. one-tailed tests offer a better chance to reject your null hypothesis
+1.81Z here
-1.96Z
0 Sampling Distribution
+1.96Z
-2Z
-1Z
0Z
+ 1Z
Sampling Distribution
Directional Tests
Directional tests should be used with caution because 1. they may allow the rejection of H0 when the experimental evidence is weak, or 2. they may predict in the wrong tail! This has consequences, of not only nonsignificant findings, but acute embarrassment!
Type I error:
You might say things are significantly different when they are not, i.e. rejecting the null when it is true. The probability of this is equal to the alpha or significance level. Type II error: You may say that things are not significantly different when they are and miss a significant relationship that really exists, i.e. accepting the null when it is false
Confidence Level. The probability that the population parameter falls within the confidence interval
EXAMPLE OF CI
If we want a 95% confidence interval, then we want 95% (.95) around the mean which leaves 2.5% (.025) at each tail.
CI Critical area
Critical area