KEY OBSERVATIONS

The city consultations and literature review about the city reveal three
major components to hazards in the city:

• Unplanned, unregulated urbanization and its consequences
• Past climate variability and associated impacts
• Disasters including floods, earthquakes and land slides
1. Unplanned /unregulated urbanization
Urban growth in the city of Guwahati has been rapid, unplanned
and organic. Rapid population growth, high migration rates and
change in land use pattern of the city due to uncontrolled
development activities is said to have done a lot of harm to the
ecology and environment of the city. Illegal construction on hills
has been one of the major causes for landslides. Uncontrolled urban
development, particularly construction activities in and around the
city is a major threat to this city on high seismic activity zone.

Population growth

Guwahati city has experienced considerable population growth in the
past few decades although the decadal growth rate seems to have a
declining trend over the years. The population of Guwahati city
including the urban agglomeration has seen a decadal growth of
18.29% from 8, 18,809 in 2001 to 9, 68, 549 in 2011. 10% of the
population in 2011 falls in the age group of 0 to 6 as compared to the
national average of 13.12% and the state
average of 14.47%.

Also, there is large floating population ranging to about 1.5-2 lacs in
a week which also leads to load on
infrastructure (Consultation with JICA). Besides the main population
residing in the city, 10% is floating population
which comes for daytime activities (Master Plan).

Migration
• Migration has been a continuous phenomenon for Guwahati
city in the past few decades. Economic opportunities along
with many social and political reasons govern migration of
people to the city. Better urban services as compared to other
rural areas such as education and medical facilities also are
factors affecting immigration.
• In the past few years, with a rapid increase in employment
opportunities due to growth of industries and other secondary
& tertiary sectors, migration has taken place from different
cities and villages. As in most cases these people are poor or
from economically backward background and thus they tend to
settle in illegal settlements and encroachments on hills or
fragile lands. The recent increase in slum areas is an indication
of increased migration in Guwahati (CDP, Guwahati).

Extent of Floods and Landslide Locations
Slopes and Landslide Locations


STRUCTURE

•Project Background
•Guwahati – Case Study
•Framework
•Preliminary findings
•Approach for designing Resilience Strategy
•Institutional & Regulatory Analysis
•The way forward…
ABOUT THE PROJECT

•Project: Preparation of Climate Resilience Strategy for
Guwahati

•Part of the Rockefeller Foundation’s Asian Cities Climate
Change Resilience Network (ACCCRN) activities

•Duration: Till March 2013

•Goals:
•Assess risk of the city to climate change impacts
•Review the regulatory environment and
•Suggest resilience measures and ways to integrate them into city
planning in order to climate proof Guwahati
HOW TO CLIMATE PROOF CITIES

•Strengthening the adaptive capacity
•Reducing the vulnerability of the urban system against climate
change
•Developing strategies and policy instruments for building
resilience of our cities - Mainstreaming in policy and
regulatory framework

–Sensitized planning and management practices – climate
resilience on agenda
–Long term resilience building – integrated approach to sector
wise climate change adaptation
–Ensuring flow of planned investments for climate resilience



CLIMATE RESILIENCE STRATEGY FOR GUWAHATI:
SCOPE

•Risk Assessment: To assess risk of climate change impacts on
the city and associated vulnerabilities
•Institutional Analysis: Making an analytical assessment of the
extent to which the existing legislations and guidelines applicable to
urban planning process in India promote resilience building within
urban centers
•Resilience Strategy: To prepare resilience strategy for the city
•Mainstreaming: Propose channels through which resilience
options could be inbuilt in the existing legislative/policy framework
GUWAHATI

•Capital city of the State of Assam
•Population – 11.9 lacs (UA area, 2011)
•Location- 26010' N and 920 49' E
•Undulating topography
•Located on the banks of the
Brahmaputra River, in Kamrup
Metropolitan District
•JnNURM city
•Gateway to North-eastern India
FRAMEWORK FOR RISK ASSESSMENT

RISKS FACED BY GUWAHATI CITY
URBANIZATION IN GUWAHATI:
1999-2010

CHANGES IN LAND USE LAND COVER,
1999-2010
•Conversion of sparse built-up into dense built-up
•Emergence of pockets of sparse built-up
•Northern part of the river has emerged as a new built-up in year 2010.
•Decrease in extent of dense forest and conversion of dense to sparse forest
IMPLICATIONS ON THE URBAN ECOSYSTEM
•Encroachment of significant natural features like natural wetlands, watershed
areas and hills.
•Hill cutting in fragile hilly areas which are not fit for development.
•Unplanned and unregulated expansion of the city, especially on hills has added to
the vulnerability of the city. 90% of the landslides occur in these areas
IMPLICATIONS ON VEGETATION HEALTH:
1999-2010

•Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI): indicator of
vegetation health and captures the variation in vegetation
•Vigor (vegetation health) has degraded over the study period.
•Remnants of healthy vegetation have remained in the southern part
of the Guwahati
township.
MEANWHILE…
•Increasing trend for both maximum and
minimum temperature for Guwahati city
•Decreasing trend seen in seasonal mean
rainfall for monsoon months over
Guwahati
•Increase in extreme rainfall events
especially in the last decade
Source: Regional Meteorological
Centre, Guwahati
INCREASED INCIDENCE OF URBAN
FLOODS…
KEY ELEMENTS - VULNERABILITY
Inadequate an inefficient Urban
Infrastructure and Services add
on to the vulnerability of the
city:
- Water Supply
- Drainage and Sewerage
- Solid waste management
- Transport
- Health
- Energy
Gaps and issues in the solid waste management sector
STORM WATER DRAINAGE –
A CRITICAL ISSUE
Reasons for drainage problems and subsequent flooding and water
logging
•Uncontrolled development, deforestation and cutting of hills
•Topographical pattern
•Built up on the natural drainage pattern
•Bils have been gradually encroached and are degrading due to
unplanned,
uncontrolled urban development;
•Inadequate capacity of existing drainage system – siltation, solid waste
Gaps and issues in the drainage sector
VULNERABILITY OF COMMUNITIES:
URBAN POOR
VULNERABILITY OF ASSETS:
URBAN SERVICES INFRASTRUCTURE
EMERGENCY RESPONSE
Extreme events:
•Urban Flooding
•Land slides
•District Disaster management Plan prepared by the KMD Emergency
Operation Centre
•DDMA has initiated the Integrated Urban Flood management Project in the
city with support from ASDMA but it is in a very preliminary stage
•Landslide risk mitigation project for Guwahati A multidisciplinary task
force for proper implementation of action plan was also formulated.

•Pressure on health delivery system
•City is prone to water/vector-borne diseases (Reported for Guwahati city
under IDSP)
•Inadequate health set-up
•Influx of patients from hinterland
•Medical response has been identified as one of the Emergency Support
Functions (ESF-4) under the Kamrup Metropolitan District Disaster
Management Plan and defines the functions of the ESF
FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIO FOR
2030S (A1B SCENARIO)



Regional model simulations at 25kmX25km resolution carried over the Kamrup district
using PRECIS
•Projections of temperatures for the whole district
shows an increasing trend for the future in 2030s
as compared to the baseline period of 1970-2000.
•The city of Guwahati shows an increase of about
1.2° in maximum and about 1.3° in minimum
temperature.
•Slight insignificant decreasing trend seen in
percentage precipitation change

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