2.

115 A large number industrial firm uses 3 local

motels to……
Plumbing faulty
20 % - Ramada Inn ~ 5%
30 % - Lakeview Motor Lodge ~ 8%
50 % - Sheraton ~ 4%

Let R ~ Ramada Inn L ~ Lakeview Motor Lodge

S ~ Sheraton P ~ Plumbing faulty

P(R) = 0.2 P(P | R) = 0.05

P(L) = 0.3 P(P | L) = 0.08
P(S) = 0.5 P(P | S) = 0.04
a) P(P) = P(P ∩ R) + P(P ∩ L) + P(P ∩ S)
= P(P | R)P(R) + P(P | L)P(L) + P(P | S)P(S)
= 0.05(0.2) + 0.08(0.3) + 0.04(0.5)
= 0.054

P(P ∩ L)
b) P(L | P) =
P(P)
P(P | L)P(L)
=
P(P)
0.08(0.3)
=
0.054
4
=
9
2.116 4 men, 5 women, choose 3 committees

a ) No. of way if no restriction = 9C3 = 84 ways

b) No. of way with 1 man and 2 women = 4C1×5 C2 = 40 ways

c) No. of way with 2 men and 1 woman if a certain man must in

( )
= 1C1 ×3 C1 ×5 C1 = 15 ways
2.117 Let Rn ~ n patient recover from a delicate
heart operation

Given P(R1) = 0.8

a) Exactly 2 of next 3 patients P1 P2 P3

P(R 2 ) = (0.8)2 (0.2)1 × 3 = 0.384

b) All the 3 next patients

P(R 3 ) = (0.8)3 = 0.512
 2 3
2.118 P(< 25 ) = P(Male) =
3 5
5
P( > 25 ∪ Female ) =
8
3 2 2 1
P(Female ) = 1 − = P( > 25) = 1 − =
5 5 3 3

P( > 25 ∩ Female) = P( > 25) + P(Female) − P( > 25 ∪ Female)

2 1 5
= + −
5 3 8
13
=
120
2.119 4 Red 5 Green 6 Yellow
Choose 9 apples if 3 of each color are to be selected

Number of ways = C3 × C3 × C3 = 800 ways

4 5 6
2.120 6 black balls 4 green balls
3 balls are drawn with replacement
Let B ~ black balls G ~ green balls

a) All 3 are the same color

3 3
   
6 4
P(3B) + P(3G) =   +   = 0.28
 10   10 

b) Each color is represented

P(each color is represente d)
= 1 - [ P(3B) + P(3G) ]
= 1 - 0.28
= 0.72
2.121 12 TV 3 defective
Let D ~ defective TV set
Hotel receive at least 2 defective sets from 5 sets

at least 2 defective = zero defective + 1 defective

= 3C0 ×9 C5 + 3C1×9 C4
= 126 + 378 = 504 ways
2.122
a) (A ∩ B)' b) (A ∪ B)'

A A

B C B C
c) (A ∩ C ) ∪ B

B C
2.123
Let A ~ consulting firm A
B ~ consulting firm B
C ~ consulting firm C
O ~ cost overrun

P(A) = 0.40 P(O|A) = 0.05

P(B) = 0.35 P(O|B) = 0.03
P(C) = 0.25 P(O|C) = 0.15
 P(O | A) = 0.05

0 .4 P(O’ | A) = 0.95
=
( A)
P
P(O | B) = 0.03

= 0. 35
P( B )
P(O’ | B) = 0.97
P(C
) =0 P(O | C) = 0.15
.25

P(O’ | C) = 0.85
P(O) = P(O | A) • P(A) + P(O | B) • P(B) + P(O | C) • P(C)
= 0.05 (0.40) + 0.03 (0.35) + 0.15 (0.25)
= 0.068

P(C ∩ O) P(A ∩ O)
a) P(C | O) = b) P(A | O) =
P(O) P(O)
P(O | C) P(C) P(O | A) P(A)
= =
P(O) P(O)
0.15 (0.25) 0.05 (0.40)
= =
0.068 0.068
= 0.5515 = 0.2941
2.124 3 temperatures 4 cooking times 3 oils

a) 3C1×4 C1×3 C1 = 36 combinatio ns to be studied

b) 1C1×4 C1×3 C1 = 12 combinatio ns will be used

for each type of oil

c) Because the arrangement among temperature,

cooking time and oil are not important here
2.125 Suppose that the manufacturer can try only two
combinations in a day

a) P(try only two combinatio ns in a day)

2 1
= =
36 18

b) Let H ~ Highest temperature is used in either of these

two combinations
Total number of way, n(H) = 1C1×4 C1×3 C1 = 12
12 1
P(H) = =
36 3
2.126 Let C ~ a woman over 60 has the disease
P ~ positive result after the test
N ~ negative result after the test

P(C) = 0.07 P(C’) = 0.93

Given that 10% incorrectly gives a negative result

P( N | C ) = 0.10

5% incorrectly gives a positive result

P( P | C’) = 0.05
 .1 0
0
) = P(N ∩ C) = P(N | A) P(C) = 0.1× 0.07 = 0.007
|C
P (N
.0 7
0
C)= P(P ∩ C) = P(P | C) P(C) = 0.9 × 0.07 = 0.063
P( P(P | C) = 0.9
0
0.95
P(N | C’) = P(N ∩ C' ) = P(N | C' ) P(C' ) = 0.95 × 0.93 = 0.8835
P(C
’) =
0.9
3
P(P P(P ∩ C' ) = P(P | C' ) P(C' ) = 0.05 × 0.93 = 0.0465
|C’)
= 0. 0
5
 P(C ∩ N) 0.007
P(C | N) = = = 0.00786
P(N) 0.8905

P(N) = P(N ∩ C) + P(N ∩ C' )

= 0.007 + 0.8835
= 0.8905
2.128 Let A ~ affected
P ~ positive result
N ~ negative result

P(A) = 0.002 P(A’) = 0.998

P( P | A ) = 0.95 P( P | A’ ) = 0.01
P( N | A ) = 0.05 P( N | A’ ) = 0.99
 0 .95
) = P(P ∩ A) = P(P | A) P(A) = 0.95 × 0.002 = 0.0019
|A
P (P
0 2
0.0
)= P(N ∩ A) = P(N | A) P(A) = 0.05 × 0.002 = 0.0001
P (A P(N | A) = 0.0
5
0.01
P(P | A’) =
P(C
’) =
P(P ∩ A' ) = P(P | A' ) P(A' ) = 0.01× 0.998 = 0.00998
0. 9
98
P(N
| A’ P(N ∩ A' ) = P(N | A' ) P(A' ) = 0.99 × 0.998 = 0.98802
)=
0.9
9
 P(P ∩ A) 0.0019
P(A | P) = = = 0.1599
P(P) 0.0118

P(P) = P(P ∩ A) + P(P ∩ A' )

= 0.0019 + 0.00998
= 0.01188
 2.129 Let 1 ~ Engineer 1
2 ~ Engineer 2
E ~ error

.0 2
= 0 P(E ∩ 1) = P(E | 1) P(1) = 0.02 × 0.7 = 0.014
)
|1
P (E
0 .7
) =
P ( 1 P(E’ | 1) = 0.9
8
.04
P(E | 2) = 0 P(E ∩ 2) = P(E | 2) P(2) = 0.04 × 0.3 = 0.012
P(2
)=
0. 3
P(E
’|2
)=
0.9
6
 P(E) = P(E ∩ 1) + P(E ∩ 2)
= 0.014 + 0.012
= 0.026

P(E ∩ 1) 0.014
P(1 | E) = = = 0.5385
P(E) 0.026

P(E ∩ 2) 0.012
P(2 | E) = = = 0.4615
P(E) 0.026

Engineer 1 has the higher probability because if there

is an error occur, probability for Engineer 1 did the
work is 0.5385 which is higher than Engineer 2
(0.4615).
2.130 Let D ~ defective
P(D) = 0.20

a) If three items arrive off the process line in succession

P(all 3 are defective) = (0.20)3 = 0.008

b) If four items arrive off the process line in succession

P(3 are defective) = 4 (0.20)3 (0.80 ) = 0.0256

2.131 Let A ~ admitted to hospital
B ~ back on the job the next day

P(A) = 0.10
P(B) = 0.15
P(A ∩ B) = 0.02

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)

= 0.10 + 0.15 - 0.02
= 0.23
2.132 Let T ~ attend the training course
M ~ able to meet their production quotas

Given P(M | T) = 0.90

P(M | T’) = 0.65
P(T) = 0.5

P(T ∩ M)
P(T | M) =
P(M)
P(M | T)P(T)
=
P(M | T)P(T) + P(M | T' )P(T' )
0.90(0.5)
=
0.90(0.5) + 0.65(0.5)
0.45
= = 0.5806
0.775
2.133 Let D ~ dissatisfied
A ~ purchase from vendor A

Given P(D) = 0.10

P(A | D) = 0.50
P(A) = 0.20

P(A | D) P(D)
P(D | A) =
P(A)
0.50 (0.10 )
=
0.20
= 0.25
2.134
Union Nonunion TOTAL

Same Company 40 15 55

New Company 13 10 23
(same field)

New field 4 11 15

Unemployed 2 5 7

TOTAL 59 41 100
Let U ~ union member
NS ~ new company (same field)
UE ~ unemployed

P(U ∩ NS) P(UE ∩ U)

a) P(U | NS) = b) P(UE | U) =
P(NS) P(U)
13 2

= 100 = 100
23 59
100 100
13 2
= =
23 59
2.135 Let C ~ the queen is a carrier
H ~ the prince has hemophilia

P( H | C) = 0.5 P( H’ | C ) = 0.5
P( H | C’) = 0 P( H’ | C’) = 1

P(C ∩ H' H' H' )

We want to find for P(C | H' H' H' ) =
P(H' H' H' )
 H 0.5

H H’ 0.5
0.5
H 0.5

H 0.5 H’ H’ 0.5
0.5 H 0.5
0.5
H H’ 0.5
C H 0.5
0.5 0.5 H’ 0.5 H’ H’ 0.5
H 0
0 H
0.5 H H’ 1
C’ 0
H 0
1 H’
1 H’ 1
H’ 0 H H 0

H’ 1
1
H’
H 0

H’ 1
 4
1 1
P(C ∩ H' H' H' ) =   =
 2  16
1 3 1
P(C'∩H' H' H' ) =  (1) =
2 2
P(H' H' H' ) = P(C ∩ H' H' H' ) + P(C'∩H' H' H' )
1 1 9
= + =
16 2 16

1
P(C ∩ H' H' H' ) 16 1
P(C | H' H' H' ) = = =
P(H' H' H' ) 9 9
16
2.136

P( no two students will have the same birth date in a size

of 60 class )
 1  364  363   306 
=     
 365  365  365   365 
364 !
=
305 ! (365) 60