Chapter 4: Discrete Random Variables

Statistics
McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4: Discrete
Random Variables
2
Where Weve Been
Using probability to make inferences
about populations
Measuring the reliability of the
inferences
McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4: Discrete
Random Variables
3
Where Were Going
Develop the notion of a random
variable
Numerical data and discrete random
variables
Discrete random variables and their
probabilities
4.1: Two Types of Random
Variables
A random variable is a variable hat
assumes numerical values associated
with the random outcome of an
experiment, where one (and only one)
numerical value is assigned to each
sample point.
4 McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4:
Discrete Random Variables
4.1: Two Types of Random
Variables
A discrete random variable can assume a
countable number of values.
Number of steps to the top of the Eiffel Tower*
A continuous random variable can
assume any value along a given interval of
a number line.
The time a tourist stays at the top
once s/he gets there
*Believe it or not, the answer ranges from 1,652 to 1,789. See Great Buildings
5 McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4:
Discrete Random Variables
4.1: Two Types of Random
Variables
Discrete random variables
Number of sales
Number of calls
Shares of stock
People in line
Mistakes per page

Continuous random
variables
Length
Depth
Volume
Time
Weight
6 McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4:
Discrete Random Variables
4.2: Probability Distributions
for Discrete Random Variables
The probability distribution of a
discrete random variable is a graph,
table or formula that specifies the
probability associated with each
possible outcome the random variable
can assume.
p(x) 0 for all values of x
Ep(x) = 1
7 McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4:
Discrete Random Variables
4.2: Probability Distributions
for Discrete Random Variables
Say a random variable
x follows this pattern:
p(x) = (.3)(.7)
x-1

for x > 0.
This table gives the
probabilities (rounded
to two digits) for x
between 1 and 10.
x P(x)
1 .30
2 .21
3 .15
4 .11
5 .07
6 .05
7 .04
8 .02
9 .02
10 .01
8 McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4:
Discrete Random Variables
4.3: Expected Values of
Discrete Random Variables
The mean, or expected value, of a
discrete random variable is
( ) ( ). E x xp x = =

9 McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4:

Discrete Random Variables
4.3: Expected Values of
Discrete Random Variables
The variance of a discrete random
variable x is


The standard deviation of a discrete
random variable x is
2 2 2
[( ) ] ( ) ( ). E x x p x o = =

2 2 2
[( ) ] ( ) ( ). E x x p x o = =

10 McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4:

Discrete Random Variables
) 3 3 (
) 2 2 (
) (
o o
o o
o o
+ < <
+ < <
+ < <
x P
x P
x P
Chebyshevs Rule Empirical Rule
0 ~ .68
.75 ~ .95
.89 ~ 1.00
11 McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4:
Discrete Random Variables
4.3: Expected Values of
Discrete Random Variables
4.3: Expected Values of
Discrete Random Variables
12 McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4:
Discrete Random Variables
In a roulette wheel in a U.S. casino, a $1 bet on
even wins $1 if the ball falls on an even number
(same for odd, or red, or black).
The odds of winning this bet are 47.37%
9986 .
0526 . 5263 . 1 $ 4737 . 1 $
5263 . ) 1 $ (
4737 . ) 1 $ (
=
= + =
=
=
o

lose P
win P
On average, bettors lose about a nickel for each dollar they put down on a bet like this.
(These are the best bets for patrons.)
4.4: The Binomial Distribution
A Binomial Random Variable
n identical trials
Two outcomes: Success or Failure
P(S) = p; P(F) = q = 1 p
Trials are independent
x is the number of Successes in n trials
13 McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4:
Discrete Random Variables
4.4: The Binomial Distribution
A Binomial Random
Variable
n identical trials
Two outcomes: Success
or Failure
P(S) = p; P(F) = q = 1 p
Trials are independent
x is the number of Ss in n
trials


Flip a coin 3 times
Outcomes are Heads or Tails

P(H) = .5; P(F) = 1-.5 = .5
A head on flip i doesnt
change P(H) of flip i + 1


14 McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4:
Discrete Random Variables
4.4: The Binomial Distribution
Results of 3 flips Probability Combined Summary
HHH (p)(p)(p) p
3
(1)p
3
q
0

HHT (p)(p)(q) p
2
q
HTH (p)(q)(p) p
2
q (3)p
2
q
1

THH (q)(p)(p) p
2
q
HTT (p)(q)(q) pq
2
THT (q)(p)(q) pq
2
(3)p
1
q
2
TTH (q)(q)(p) pq
2
TTT (q)(q)(q) q
3
(1)p
0
q
3

15 McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4:
Discrete Random Variables
4.4: The Binomial Distribution
The Binomial Probability Distribution
p = P(S) on a single trial
q = 1 p
n = number of trials
x = number of successes
x n x
q p
x
n
x P

|
|
.
|

\
|
= ) (
16 McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4:
Discrete Random Variables
4.4: The Binomial Distribution
The Binomial Probability Distribution
x n x
q p
x
n
x P

|
|
.
|

\
|
= ) (
17 McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4:
Discrete Random Variables
Say 40% of the
class is female.
What is the
probability that 6
of the first 10
students walking
in will be female?
4.4: The Binomial Distribution
1115 .
) 1296 )(. 004096 (. 210
) 6 )(. 4 (.
6
10
) (
6 10 6
=
=
|
|
.
|

\
|
=
|
|
.
|

\
|
=

x n x
q p
x
n
x P
18 McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4:
Discrete Random Variables
4.4: The Binomial Distribution
Mean
Variance
Standard Deviation
A Binomial Random Variable has

McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4:
Discrete Random Variables
19
2
np
npq
npq

o
o
=
=
=
4.4: The Binomial Distribution
16 250
250 5 . 5 . 1000
500 5 . 1000
2
~ = =
= = =
= = =
npq
npq
np
o
o

For 1,000 coin flips,

The actual probability of getting exactly 500 heads out of 1000 flips is
just over 2.5%, but the probability of getting between 484 and 516 heads
(that is, within one standard deviation of the mean) is about 68%.
20 McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4:
Discrete Random Variables
4.5: The Poisson Distribution
Evaluates the probability of a (usually
small) number of occurrences out of many
opportunities in a
Period of time
Area
Volume
Weight
Distance
Other units of measurement

21 McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4:
Discrete Random Variables
4.5: The Poisson Distribution
!
) (
x
e
x P
x

=
= mean number of occurrences in the
given unit of time, area, volume, etc.
e = 2.71828.
=
o
2
=





22 McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4:
Discrete Random Variables
4.5: The Poisson Distribution
1008 .
! 5
3
!
) 5 (
3 5
= = = =

e
x
e
x P
x

Say in a given stream there are an average

of 3 striped trout per 100 yards. What is the
probability of seeing 5 striped trout in the
next 100 yards, assuming a Poisson
distribution?
23 McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4:
Discrete Random Variables
4.5: The Poisson Distribution
0141 .
! 5
5 . 1
!
) 5 (
5 . 1 5
= = = =

e
x
e
x P
x

How about in the next 50 yards, assuming a

Poisson distribution?
Since the distance is only half as long, is only
half as large.

24 McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4:
Discrete Random Variables
4.6: The Hypergeometric
Distribution
In the binomial situation, each trial was
independent.
Drawing cards from a deck and replacing
the drawn card each time
If the card is not replaced, each trial
depends on the previous trial(s).
The hypergeometric distribution can be
used in this case.

McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4:
Discrete Random Variables
25
4.6: The Hypergeometric
Distribution
McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4:
Discrete Random Variables
26
Randomly draw n elements from a set
of N elements, without replacement.
Assume there are r successes and N-r
failures in the N elements.
The hypergeometric random variable
is the number of successes, x, drawn
from the r available in the n selections.
4.6: The Hypergeometric
Distribution
McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4:
Discrete Random Variables
27
|
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.
|

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.
|

\
|

|
|
.
|

\
|
=
n
N
x n
r N
x
r
x P ) (
where
N = the total number of elements
r = number of successes in the N elements
n = number of elements drawn
X = the number of successes in the n elements
4.6: The Hypergeometric
Distribution
McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4:
Discrete Random Variables
28
|
|
.
|

\
|
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.
|

\
|

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|

\
|
=
n
N
x n
r N
x
r
x P ) (
) 1 (
) ( ) (
2
2

=
=
N N
n N n r N r
N
nr
o

4.6: The Hypergeometric

Distribution
44 . 22 . 2 ) 2 ( ) 2 ( ) 2 or 2 (
22 .
45
) 1 )( 10 (
2
10
2 2
5 10
2
5
) 2 ( ) 2 (
= = = + = = = =
= =
|
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= = = =
F P M P F M P
F P M P
Suppose a customer at a pet store wants to buy two hamsters
for his daughter, but he wants two males or two females (i.e.,
he wants only two hamsters in a few months)
If there are ten hamsters, five male and five female, what is the
probability of drawing two of the same sex? (With hamsters,
its virtually a random selection.)
McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 4:
Discrete Random Variables
29