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By B. Swartz

SwartzB@cput.ac.za

Probability

Basic probability formula

Probability definitions

Probability theorems

Permutations and Combinations

Binomial Probability Distribution

Hypergeometric Probability Distribution

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 2

Basic Probability Formula

N

N

A P

A

) (

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 3

outcomes possible of no. ttl N

A event of outcomes successful of No. N

occuring event an of Probabilty P(A)

A

2

1

) ( H P

6

1

) 2 ( P

52

13

) lub ( s C P

52

4

) 7 ( P

Coin, probability for heads is

Die, probability for two is 1/6

Cards, probability for clubs is 13/52

Cards, probability for a seven is 4/52

(Refer to Theorem 1, Theorem 2 and Theorem 5)

Some definitions

An Experiment: A situation involving chance or probability that

leads to results (results = outcomes). Outcome also known as an

Event

Event: Each possible outcome of a variable is referred to as an event.

A simple event is described by a single characteristic. Also said to

be one or more outcomes of an experiment.

A Joint event: This is an event that has two or more characteristics.

The Complement of an event: This includes all events that are not

part of that event e.g. If event A is represented by the symbol A,

the complement of event A is represented by the symbol A

Outcome: Result of a single trial of an experiment

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 4

Theorem 1

Probability is ALWAYS expressed as a number

between 0.000 and 1.000

This value reflects the certainty associated to the

likelihood that an event will occur

If probability is 1.000, then there is an absolute

certainty that the event will occur

If the probability is 0.000, then there is no certainty

that the event will occur

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 5

Theorem 2

If P(A) is the probability that event A will occur in

an trial, then the probability that A will not occur:

P(A) = 1 P(A)

In other words: The probability of the event not

occurring = Value of certainty the probability of the

event occurring

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 6

More definitions

Collectively exhaustive: An experiment or trial will have set

of all outcomes. If these outcomes are a finite set, and if

one of the outcomes must occur, then that set is collectively

exhaustive. (e.g. Tossing a coin, it will either return a

heads or a tail. Thus the possible outcomes are H or T.

This set of outcomes are collectively exhaustive)

Mutually exclusive: This term used to describe the

relationship between two events in an experiment or trial.

Two events (A and B) are mutually exclusive if they cannot

occur at the same time. (i.e.) They have no outcomes in

common.

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 7

Theorem 2 cont.

Example:

If the probability of finding an error on an income tax return is 0.04, what is the

probability of finding an error-free or conforming return

P(A) = 1.000 P(A)

= 1.000 0.040

= 0.960

Therefore, the probability of finding a conforming tax return is 0.960

Thus the simple probability of the an event not happening, is 1 the probability that it

happens.

In this case, the set of (the tax returns with errors and tax returns without errors) are

collectively exhaustive

Also, the two events, (the tax returns with errors and tax returns without errors), are

mutually exclusive

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 8

More examples of Mutually

Exclusive

Example of a mutually exclusive event is when a single

card is chosen from a deck of 52 playing cards, the

probability of choosing a 5 or a King

Another: Rolling a dice

Probability that it lands on either an even or an odd

number

(Refer to Theorem 3 the probability that either of the above-

mentioned events will occur is the sum of their respective

probabilities)

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 9

Theorem 3

If A and B are mutually exclusive events (they

have no outcomes in common), then the

probability of either A or B occurring in the same

event, will be the sum of their respective

probabilities

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Whenever the word OR is verbalized, the mathematical

operation is addition

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 10

Reference Table 1

Supplier

Number

conforming

Number

Nonconforming Total

X 50 3 53

Y 125 6 131

Z 75 2 77

Total 250 11 261

Inspection results by supplier

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 11

Theorem 3 cont.

Example:

P(X or Z) = P(X) + P(Z) If the 261 parts described in table 1 are

contained in a box, what is the probability of selecting a random part

produced by supplier X or by supplier Z?

P(X or Z) = P(X) + P(Z)

= P(53/261) + P(77/261)

= 0.498

What is the probability of selecting a nonconforming part from

supplier x or a conforming part from supplier Z?

P(nc. X or co. Z) = P(nc. X) + P(co. Z)

= (3/261) + (75/261)

= 0.299

TAKE NOTE TO READ THE QUESTION CAREFULLY AND

DETERMINE WHAT EXACTLY IS BEING ASKED!

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 12

Theorem 4

If event A and event B are not mutually exclusive

events, (Thus :the events can occur with a common

outcome/feature), then the probability that either

event A or event B or both occurs is given by

P(A or B or both) = P(A) + P(B) P(both)

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 13

More definitions

Not mutually exclusive: When two events have an outcome in

common. That is the possibility exists that the events (A and B)

can occur at the same time in the same trial or experiment.

Example of NOT mutually exclusive is when a single card is

chosen from a deck of 52 playing cards, that is either a club or a

king

Rolling a die, probability of rolling a 5 or an odd number

(Refer to Theorem 4 the probability the either of the above-mentioned events, or both

will occur is given by adding the sum of the individual probabilities of the two events and

subtracting the common feature shared by the two events)

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 14

Theorem 4 cont.

Example:

Refer back to Table 1:

What is the probability that a randomly selected part will be from

supplier X or a nonconforming unit?

P(X or nc. or both) = P(X) + P(nc.) P(X and nc.)

= (53/261) + (11/261) (3/261)

= 0.234

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 15

Theorem 5

The sum of all the probabilities of a particular

event (experiment or trial) is equal to 1.000

P(A) + P(B) + . . . +P(N) = 1.000

Understanding this theorem: One needs to know the

probability of all other events (A, B...etc) to determine an

unknown probability.

Stated differently: Unknown Probability = 1.000 P(the rest)

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 16

Theorem 5 cont.

Example:

A health inspector examines 3 products in a subgroup to determine if they are

acceptable. From past experience it is known (information given to the inspector),

that the probability of finding no nonconforming units in the sample of 3 is 0.990,

the probability of finding 1 nonconforming unit in the sample of 3 is 0.006 and the

probability of finding 2 nonconforming units in the sample of 3 is 0.003. This

probabilities of those events are given = Known Outcomes. He then conducts his

own trial and the results of this will be Experimental outcomes. (However the

results of this his own trial is still unknown)

It is thus known the probability of good products is 99% (or 99 out of 100)

What is the probability of finding 3 nonconforming units in the sample of 3?

There are four events and only four, 0nc.units, 1nc unit, 2nc units and 3nc units

P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3) = 1.000

0.990 + 0.006 + 0.003 + P(3) = 1.000

P(3) = 0.001

Thus , the probability of 3 nc. Units in the sample of 3 is 0.001

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 17

Some more on Known Outcomes

v.s. Experimental Outcomes

Same probability formula

Important to just be able to recognise the difference

Known outcomes based on existing data

Experimental outcomes based on trials or

experiments being conducted

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 18

Known Outcomes vs Experimental

Outcomes

A part is selected at random from a container of 50 parts that are

known to have 10 nonconforming units. The part is returned to the

container, and a record of the number of trials and the number of

nonconforming is maintained. After 90 trails, 16 nonconforming units

were recorded. What is the probability based on known outcomes and

on experimental outcomes?

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 19

Known outcomes:

N

N

A P

A

) (

50

10

) ( A P

200 . 0 ) ( A P

Experimental outcomes:

N

N

A P

A

) (

90

16

) ( A P

178 . 0 ) ( A P

Theorem 6

If A and B are independent events, then the

probability of both A and B occurring is the

product of their respective probabilities

P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)

Whenever the word AND is verbalized, the mathematical

operation is multiplication

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 20

More definitions

Independent event: Two events, A and B are independent if the

event A can occur without affecting the probability of event B

occurring. (Either in the same trial or experiment or in successive

trials or experiments)

For independent events, only if both events must be considered,

then when calculating the probability of both the events

occurring, one must take note that this is a form of conditional

probability i.e. Event B occurs on condition that Event A has

already occurred. Furthermore this above example is also a form

of marginal probability (i.e. Joint outcomes)

The test for independence is: P(AB) = P (A). If this is true, then

the events are considered to be independent.

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 21

Independent Event

Example of an independent event is when tossing a

coin AND rolling a 5 on a single 6 sided die

Or

Rolling a 4 on a single 6 sided die AND then rolling a 1

on a second roll of the same die

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 22

Independent Event

Another example: Choosing a 3 from a deck of 52 (Event

A), then replacing the card AND then choosing an ace as

the second card (Event B).

When two events are independent, (can occur in

sequence), one needs to find the probabilities separately,

then multiply.

The multiplication is represented by the word

AND

(Refer to theorem 6: The probability of two or more independent events

occurring is the product of their respective probabilities)

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 23

Theorem 6 cont.

Example:

From table 1, what is the probability that 2 randomly selected parts will

be from supplier X and supplier Y? Assume that the first part is

returned to the box before the second part is selected (called with

replacement).

P(X and Y) = P(X) * P(Y)

= (53/261) * (131/261)

= 0.102

It is low if you consider other possibilities such as XX, YY, ZZ, YX, XZ,

ZX, YZ,and ZY. This theorem is also applicable to more than 2 events.

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 24

Theorem 7

If event A and event B are dependent events (thus

one event which occurs has an influence on the other

event taking place), the probability of both events

occurring (A and B) is given as the product of the

probability of the event A, and the probability of

B under the given condition that A already

occurred.

P (A and B) = P(A) x P(BIA)

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 25

And even more definitions

Example of dependent event is when a card is which is a queen is

chosen at random from a deck of 52 playing cards (Event A). Without

replacing the first card, a second card, which is a jack is chosen

(Event B).

Take note: To work out the probability that both of these events took

place is a form of Marginal probability (i.e. Set of joint probabilities).

HOWEVER, in order to calculate the probability that just the second

event took place one must consider that the first event has an influence

on the second event.

Thus, Two events are dependent if the outcome, or occurrence of the

first event affects the outcome or occurrence of the second event, (i.e.)

After the first event occurred, the probability of the second event

changes

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 26

Dependent events

Choosing a jack on the second pick (Event B), given that a queen was chosen on

the first pick (Event A) is called conditional probability due to the number of

cards are less in the second pick.

The conditional probability of an event B in relationship to event A, is the

probability that event B occurs, given that event A has already occurred. The

notation for conditional probability is P(BA) means probability of jack being

picked, on condition given that another card is being picked out of the deck before

event B.

The test for dependence is P(BA) P (B). If this is true, then the two events are

not independent.

(Refer to Theorem 7: If first and second events are dependent the probability of first event AND (this means multiply) second

event occurring is the product of the two events. However the second event is conditional, thus the probability of that event

changes after the first event took place.)

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 27

Theorem 7 cont.

Example:

From table 1, considering the preceding example used to explain Theorem

6, consider that the first part was not returned to the box before the second

part was selected. What is the probability then?

P(X and Y) = P(X) * P(YX)

= (53/261) * (131/260)

= 0.102

Since the first part was not returned to the box, there was a total of only 260 parts in

the box. What is the probability of choosing both parts from supplier Z?

P(Z and Z) = P(Z) * P(ZZ)

= (77/261) * (76/260)

0.086

Since the first part was from supplier Z, there are only 76 from supplier Z of

the new total of 260 in the box.

The probability of the second event depends on the result of the first

event. It is also applicable to more than two events

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 28

Combining theorems......

Combination of theorems:

If the 261 parts described in table 1 are contained in a box, what is the

probability that two randomly selected parts (with replacement) will

have one conforming part from supplier X and one nonconforming part

from supplier Y or supplier Z?

P[co.X and (co.Y or co.Z)] = P(co.X) [P(co.Y) + P(co.Z)]

= (50/261) * [(6/261) + (2/261)]

= 0.192 * [0.023+ 0.008]

= 0.00595

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 29

Permutations and Combinations

Combination: A loose arrangement of a set of objects.

Permutation: An ordered arrangement of a set of

objects.

With combinations, the order is not important, with

permutations, the order is important

A Permutation is an ordered Combination. For a

set of objects there will always be more

permutations possible than combinations.

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 30

Permutations

A permutation is an ordered arrangement of a set of

objects. The permutations of the word cup are cup,

cpu, upc, ucp, puc and pcu. In this case there are 3

objects in the set and we arrange them into groups of 3

to obtain six permutations.

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 31

)! (

!

,

n N

N

P

n N

objects of no total N

: where

Permutations cont.

How many permutations would there be for 4 objects

taken 2 at a time. Use the word fork to represent the

four objects, the permutation are fo, of, fr, rf, fk, kf, or,

ro, ok, ko, rk, kr.

Naturally, if you use the formula and your calculator it

is a whole lot easier!

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 32

)! (

!

,

n N

N

P

n N

)! 2 4 (

! 4

,

n N

P

1 . 2

1 . 2 . 3 . 4

2 , 4

P 12

2 , 4

P

Permutations cont.

A witness to a hit and run accident remembered the first 3 digits of the

license plate out of 5 digits and noted the fact that the last 2 were

numerals. How many owners of automobiles would the police have to

investigate?

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 33

AB = (10)(10)

= 100

If the last 2 were letters, how many would need to be investigated

AB = (26)(26)

= 676

Suppose the witness remembers further that the numerals were not

the same.

AB = (10)(9)

= 90

or

)! (

!

,

n N

N

P

n N

)! 2 10 (

! 10

2 , 10

P

1 ... 7 . 8

1 ... 7 . 8 . 9 . 10

90

Combinations

The order is not important:

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 34

Using the word fork again

! )!. (

!

,

n n N

N

C

n N

objects of no total N

! )!. (

!

,

n n N

N

C

n N

! 2 )!. 2 4 (

! 4

2 , 4

C

1 . 2 * 1 . 2

1 . 2 . 3 . 4

2 , 4

C

2 * 2

24

2 , 4

C

6

2 , 4

C

Combinations cont.

An interior designer has 5 different colour chairs and

will use 3 in a living room arrangement. How many

diff. Combinations are possible?

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 35

! )!. (

!

,

n n N

N

C

n N

! 3 )!. 3 5 (

! 5

3 , 5

C

! 3 )!. 2 (

1 . 2 . 3 . 4 . 5

3 , 5

C

1 . 2 . 3 * 1 . 2

1 . 2 . 3 . 4 . 5

3 , 5

C

6 * 2

120

3 , 5

C

10

3 , 5

C

Example Questions

A club consists of 12 members.

1. How many slates of officers could be formed if

the offices of president, vice president, and

secretary are to be filled?

2. How many committees of three could be formed

to plan the Christmas party?

3. If the club consists of nine women and three men,

how many ways could the men and women be

seated in a row of 12 chairs

(for example, M, W, W, W, M, M, W, W,W, W, W,

W).

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 36

Solutions

1. Question 1 is a permutation.

The order of the people is

important

2. Question 1 is a combination.

The order of the people is not

important

3. Question 3 is also a

combination. A two letter

word problem

1320

! 9

! 12

)! 3 12 (

! 12

3 , 12

P

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 37

220

! 3 !. 9

! 12

! 3 )!. 3 12 (

! 12

3 , 12

C

220

! 3 !. 9

! 12

! 3 )!. 3 12 (

! 12

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