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For SQT300S

By B. Swartz
SwartzB@cput.ac.za
Probability

Basic probability formula
Probability definitions
Probability theorems
Permutations and Combinations
Binomial Probability Distribution
Hypergeometric Probability Distribution
2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 2
Basic Probability Formula
N
N
A P
A
) (
2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 3
outcomes possible of no. ttl N
A event of outcomes successful of No. N
occuring event an of Probabilty P(A)
A

2
1
) ( H P
6
1
) 2 ( P
52
13
) lub ( s C P
52
4
) 7 ( P


Coin, probability for heads is

Die, probability for two is 1/6

Cards, probability for clubs is 13/52

Cards, probability for a seven is 4/52

(Refer to Theorem 1, Theorem 2 and Theorem 5)
Some definitions

An Experiment: A situation involving chance or probability that
leads to results (results = outcomes). Outcome also known as an
Event
Event: Each possible outcome of a variable is referred to as an event.
A simple event is described by a single characteristic. Also said to
be one or more outcomes of an experiment.
A Joint event: This is an event that has two or more characteristics.
The Complement of an event: This includes all events that are not
part of that event e.g. If event A is represented by the symbol A,
the complement of event A is represented by the symbol A
Outcome: Result of a single trial of an experiment
2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 4
Theorem 1

Probability is ALWAYS expressed as a number
between 0.000 and 1.000
This value reflects the certainty associated to the
likelihood that an event will occur
If probability is 1.000, then there is an absolute
certainty that the event will occur
If the probability is 0.000, then there is no certainty
that the event will occur
2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 5
Theorem 2

If P(A) is the probability that event A will occur in
an trial, then the probability that A will not occur:
P(A) = 1 P(A)

In other words: The probability of the event not
occurring = Value of certainty the probability of the
event occurring
2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 6
More definitions
Collectively exhaustive: An experiment or trial will have set
of all outcomes. If these outcomes are a finite set, and if
one of the outcomes must occur, then that set is collectively
exhaustive. (e.g. Tossing a coin, it will either return a
heads or a tail. Thus the possible outcomes are H or T.
This set of outcomes are collectively exhaustive)

Mutually exclusive: This term used to describe the
relationship between two events in an experiment or trial.
Two events (A and B) are mutually exclusive if they cannot
occur at the same time. (i.e.) They have no outcomes in
common.

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 7
Theorem 2 cont.
Example:
If the probability of finding an error on an income tax return is 0.04, what is the
probability of finding an error-free or conforming return

P(A) = 1.000 P(A)
= 1.000 0.040
= 0.960

Therefore, the probability of finding a conforming tax return is 0.960
Thus the simple probability of the an event not happening, is 1 the probability that it
happens.

In this case, the set of (the tax returns with errors and tax returns without errors) are
collectively exhaustive
Also, the two events, (the tax returns with errors and tax returns without errors), are
mutually exclusive
2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 8
More examples of Mutually
Exclusive
Example of a mutually exclusive event is when a single
card is chosen from a deck of 52 playing cards, the
probability of choosing a 5 or a King

Another: Rolling a dice
Probability that it lands on either an even or an odd
number
(Refer to Theorem 3 the probability that either of the above-
mentioned events will occur is the sum of their respective
probabilities)

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 9
Theorem 3
If A and B are mutually exclusive events (they
have no outcomes in common), then the
probability of either A or B occurring in the same
event, will be the sum of their respective
probabilities

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Whenever the word OR is verbalized, the mathematical
operation is addition

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 10
Reference Table 1
Supplier
Number
conforming
Number
Nonconforming Total
X 50 3 53
Y 125 6 131
Z 75 2 77
Total 250 11 261
Inspection results by supplier
2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 11
Theorem 3 cont.
Example:
P(X or Z) = P(X) + P(Z) If the 261 parts described in table 1 are
contained in a box, what is the probability of selecting a random part
produced by supplier X or by supplier Z?
P(X or Z) = P(X) + P(Z)
= P(53/261) + P(77/261)
= 0.498
What is the probability of selecting a nonconforming part from
supplier x or a conforming part from supplier Z?
P(nc. X or co. Z) = P(nc. X) + P(co. Z)
= (3/261) + (75/261)
= 0.299
TAKE NOTE TO READ THE QUESTION CAREFULLY AND
DETERMINE WHAT EXACTLY IS BEING ASKED!
2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 12
Theorem 4

If event A and event B are not mutually exclusive
events, (Thus :the events can occur with a common
outcome/feature), then the probability that either
event A or event B or both occurs is given by

P(A or B or both) = P(A) + P(B) P(both)
2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 13
More definitions
Not mutually exclusive: When two events have an outcome in
common. That is the possibility exists that the events (A and B)
can occur at the same time in the same trial or experiment.

Example of NOT mutually exclusive is when a single card is
chosen from a deck of 52 playing cards, that is either a club or a
king



Rolling a die, probability of rolling a 5 or an odd number

(Refer to Theorem 4 the probability the either of the above-mentioned events, or both
will occur is given by adding the sum of the individual probabilities of the two events and
subtracting the common feature shared by the two events)

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 14
Theorem 4 cont.
Example:

Refer back to Table 1:

What is the probability that a randomly selected part will be from
supplier X or a nonconforming unit?

P(X or nc. or both) = P(X) + P(nc.) P(X and nc.)
= (53/261) + (11/261) (3/261)
= 0.234
2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 15
Theorem 5
The sum of all the probabilities of a particular
event (experiment or trial) is equal to 1.000
P(A) + P(B) + . . . +P(N) = 1.000

Understanding this theorem: One needs to know the
probability of all other events (A, B...etc) to determine an
unknown probability.

Stated differently: Unknown Probability = 1.000 P(the rest)

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 16
Theorem 5 cont.
Example:
A health inspector examines 3 products in a subgroup to determine if they are
acceptable. From past experience it is known (information given to the inspector),
that the probability of finding no nonconforming units in the sample of 3 is 0.990,
the probability of finding 1 nonconforming unit in the sample of 3 is 0.006 and the
probability of finding 2 nonconforming units in the sample of 3 is 0.003. This
probabilities of those events are given = Known Outcomes. He then conducts his
own trial and the results of this will be Experimental outcomes. (However the
results of this his own trial is still unknown)
It is thus known the probability of good products is 99% (or 99 out of 100)

What is the probability of finding 3 nonconforming units in the sample of 3?

There are four events and only four, 0nc.units, 1nc unit, 2nc units and 3nc units
P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3) = 1.000
0.990 + 0.006 + 0.003 + P(3) = 1.000
P(3) = 0.001
Thus , the probability of 3 nc. Units in the sample of 3 is 0.001
2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 17
Some more on Known Outcomes
v.s. Experimental Outcomes

Same probability formula
Important to just be able to recognise the difference
Known outcomes based on existing data
Experimental outcomes based on trials or
experiments being conducted
2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 18
Known Outcomes vs Experimental
Outcomes
A part is selected at random from a container of 50 parts that are
known to have 10 nonconforming units. The part is returned to the
container, and a record of the number of trials and the number of
nonconforming is maintained. After 90 trails, 16 nonconforming units
were recorded. What is the probability based on known outcomes and
on experimental outcomes?

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 19
Known outcomes:




N
N
A P
A
) (
50
10
) ( A P
200 . 0 ) ( A P
Experimental outcomes:




N
N
A P
A
) (
90
16
) ( A P
178 . 0 ) ( A P
Theorem 6

If A and B are independent events, then the
probability of both A and B occurring is the
product of their respective probabilities

P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)

Whenever the word AND is verbalized, the mathematical
operation is multiplication
2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 20
More definitions
Independent event: Two events, A and B are independent if the
event A can occur without affecting the probability of event B
occurring. (Either in the same trial or experiment or in successive
trials or experiments)

For independent events, only if both events must be considered,
then when calculating the probability of both the events
occurring, one must take note that this is a form of conditional
probability i.e. Event B occurs on condition that Event A has
already occurred. Furthermore this above example is also a form
of marginal probability (i.e. Joint outcomes)

The test for independence is: P(AB) = P (A). If this is true, then
the events are considered to be independent.
2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 21
Independent Event
Example of an independent event is when tossing a
coin AND rolling a 5 on a single 6 sided die
Or
Rolling a 4 on a single 6 sided die AND then rolling a 1
on a second roll of the same die

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 22
Independent Event
Another example: Choosing a 3 from a deck of 52 (Event
A), then replacing the card AND then choosing an ace as
the second card (Event B).

When two events are independent, (can occur in
sequence), one needs to find the probabilities separately,
then multiply.

The multiplication is represented by the word
AND

(Refer to theorem 6: The probability of two or more independent events
occurring is the product of their respective probabilities)
2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 23
Theorem 6 cont.
Example:

From table 1, what is the probability that 2 randomly selected parts will
be from supplier X and supplier Y? Assume that the first part is
returned to the box before the second part is selected (called with
replacement).

P(X and Y) = P(X) * P(Y)
= (53/261) * (131/261)
= 0.102

It is low if you consider other possibilities such as XX, YY, ZZ, YX, XZ,
ZX, YZ,and ZY. This theorem is also applicable to more than 2 events.
2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 24
Theorem 7

If event A and event B are dependent events (thus
one event which occurs has an influence on the other
event taking place), the probability of both events
occurring (A and B) is given as the product of the
probability of the event A, and the probability of
B under the given condition that A already
occurred.
P (A and B) = P(A) x P(BIA)
2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 25
And even more definitions
Example of dependent event is when a card is which is a queen is
chosen at random from a deck of 52 playing cards (Event A). Without
replacing the first card, a second card, which is a jack is chosen
(Event B).

Take note: To work out the probability that both of these events took
place is a form of Marginal probability (i.e. Set of joint probabilities).

HOWEVER, in order to calculate the probability that just the second
event took place one must consider that the first event has an influence
on the second event.

Thus, Two events are dependent if the outcome, or occurrence of the
first event affects the outcome or occurrence of the second event, (i.e.)
After the first event occurred, the probability of the second event
changes

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 26
Dependent events
Choosing a jack on the second pick (Event B), given that a queen was chosen on
the first pick (Event A) is called conditional probability due to the number of
cards are less in the second pick.

The conditional probability of an event B in relationship to event A, is the
probability that event B occurs, given that event A has already occurred. The
notation for conditional probability is P(BA) means probability of jack being
picked, on condition given that another card is being picked out of the deck before
event B.

The test for dependence is P(BA) P (B). If this is true, then the two events are
not independent.


(Refer to Theorem 7: If first and second events are dependent the probability of first event AND (this means multiply) second
event occurring is the product of the two events. However the second event is conditional, thus the probability of that event
changes after the first event took place.)
2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 27
Theorem 7 cont.
Example:
From table 1, considering the preceding example used to explain Theorem
6, consider that the first part was not returned to the box before the second
part was selected. What is the probability then?
P(X and Y) = P(X) * P(YX)
= (53/261) * (131/260)
= 0.102
Since the first part was not returned to the box, there was a total of only 260 parts in
the box. What is the probability of choosing both parts from supplier Z?
P(Z and Z) = P(Z) * P(ZZ)
= (77/261) * (76/260)
0.086
Since the first part was from supplier Z, there are only 76 from supplier Z of
the new total of 260 in the box.
The probability of the second event depends on the result of the first
event. It is also applicable to more than two events
2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 28
Combining theorems......
Combination of theorems:

If the 261 parts described in table 1 are contained in a box, what is the
probability that two randomly selected parts (with replacement) will
have one conforming part from supplier X and one nonconforming part
from supplier Y or supplier Z?


P[co.X and (co.Y or co.Z)] = P(co.X) [P(co.Y) + P(co.Z)]
= (50/261) * [(6/261) + (2/261)]
= 0.192 * [0.023+ 0.008]
= 0.00595
2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 29
Permutations and Combinations

Combination: A loose arrangement of a set of objects.
Permutation: An ordered arrangement of a set of
objects.
With combinations, the order is not important, with
permutations, the order is important
A Permutation is an ordered Combination. For a
set of objects there will always be more
permutations possible than combinations.
2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 30
Permutations
A permutation is an ordered arrangement of a set of
objects. The permutations of the word cup are cup,
cpu, upc, ucp, puc and pcu. In this case there are 3
objects in the set and we arrange them into groups of 3
to obtain six permutations.



2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 31



)! (
!
,
n N
N
P
n N

number total the of out selected objects of number n


objects of no total N
: where

Permutations cont.
How many permutations would there be for 4 objects
taken 2 at a time. Use the word fork to represent the
four objects, the permutation are fo, of, fr, rf, fk, kf, or,
ro, ok, ko, rk, kr.
Naturally, if you use the formula and your calculator it
is a whole lot easier!

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 32
)! (
!
,
n N
N
P
n N

)! 2 4 (
! 4
,

n N
P
1 . 2
1 . 2 . 3 . 4
2 , 4
P 12
2 , 4
P
Permutations cont.
A witness to a hit and run accident remembered the first 3 digits of the
license plate out of 5 digits and noted the fact that the last 2 were
numerals. How many owners of automobiles would the police have to
investigate?
2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 33
AB = (10)(10)
= 100
If the last 2 were letters, how many would need to be investigated
AB = (26)(26)
= 676
Suppose the witness remembers further that the numerals were not
the same.
AB = (10)(9)
= 90
or




)! (
!
,
n N
N
P
n N

)! 2 10 (
! 10
2 , 10

P
1 ... 7 . 8
1 ... 7 . 8 . 9 . 10

90
Combinations
The order is not important:
2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 34
Using the word fork again





! )!. (
!
,
n n N
N
C
n N

number total the of out selected objects of number n


objects of no total N

! )!. (
!
,
n n N
N
C
n N

! 2 )!. 2 4 (
! 4
2 , 4

C
1 . 2 * 1 . 2
1 . 2 . 3 . 4
2 , 4
C
2 * 2
24
2 , 4
C
6
2 , 4
C
Combinations cont.
An interior designer has 5 different colour chairs and
will use 3 in a living room arrangement. How many
diff. Combinations are possible?

2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 35
! )!. (
!
,
n n N
N
C
n N

! 3 )!. 3 5 (
! 5
3 , 5

C
! 3 )!. 2 (
1 . 2 . 3 . 4 . 5
3 , 5
C
1 . 2 . 3 * 1 . 2
1 . 2 . 3 . 4 . 5
3 , 5
C
6 * 2
120
3 , 5
C
10
3 , 5
C
Example Questions
A club consists of 12 members.
1. How many slates of officers could be formed if
the offices of president, vice president, and
secretary are to be filled?
2. How many committees of three could be formed
to plan the Christmas party?
3. If the club consists of nine women and three men,
how many ways could the men and women be
seated in a row of 12 chairs
(for example, M, W, W, W, M, M, W, W,W, W, W,
W).
2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 36
Solutions

1. Question 1 is a permutation.
The order of the people is
important





2. Question 1 is a combination.
The order of the people is not
important




3. Question 3 is also a
combination. A two letter
word problem
1320
! 9
! 12
)! 3 12 (
! 12
3 , 12

P
2014 B. C. Swartz, DISE, CPUT 37
220
! 3 !. 9
! 12
! 3 )!. 3 12 (
! 12
3 , 12

C
220
! 3 !. 9
! 12
! 3 )!. 3 12 (
! 12