Climate Training Kit.

Module 1a Climate change science and impacts

Basic science and facts of
climate change past, present
and future
SEA Climate
Change
Training,
Thailand 2014
www.ifrc.org
Saving lives, changing minds.
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
More and worse floods
Rains no longer normal
difficult to know when to
plant
Our paddy fields get eaten
away by the sea
... so our children have to
move away
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
IPCC the key reference
on climate change
Main findings
Climate change is already happening
It is mostly caused by man
It will continue
The rate of change is alarming
Extreme weather is getting more frequent
It is urgent to stop further warming
IPCC Fifth
Assessment
Report, 2013
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Three Questions
Q
1
.

WHY IS IT
GETTING
WARMER?
Q
2
.

WHAT
DOES IT
MEAN?
Q
3
.

WHAT DOES
CC MEAN
FOR THE
HUMANITARI
AN SECTOR
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
First Question: Why is it getting warmer?
Answer: The rapid global warming of the past 100 years is caused
mostly by human activity, mainly:
Burning fossil fuels (e.g. coal, oil, natural gas) at
unprecedented rates, sending greenhouse gases into
the atmosphere


Changing agricultural and land-use practices
(agriculture releases other GHGs, CH
4
and NO
2
)
Widespread deforestation (trees contain a lot of
carbon, and when burnt CO
2
is released )
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Greenhouse gases are acting as a blanket around the
earth
First question: Why is it getting warmer?
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Does anyone know how
many ppm of CO
2
we have
in the atmosphere today?
Today CO
2
is higher than its been for
hundreds of thousands of years
http://400.350.org/
400 ppm
Thats 120 ppm higher than
the max for 800,000+ yrs

and the difference
between an ice age and a
warm period is just 100 ppm
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Second Question: Along with the GHG the earth
is getting warmer what does that mean?
Changing rainfall patterns
Sea level rise
Changes in extreme events
Rising temperatures, heat waves
Melting ice
Ocean acidification
Scientists very sure
Less clear, and
regional differences
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
We should avoid more than
a 2Celsius temperature
rise in the coming century
Scientist warnings are clear:
A 2012 World Bank report
summarizes the potential
effects of a 4warmer
world: its urgent to limit
GHG emissions
The more we limit GHG
emissions now, the less
need for adaption to a
future wilder weather
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
In the next few decades,
temperatures will continue to
rise, even if we almost
completely stop emissions of
GHGs today (blue line)

This is because GHGs,
especially CO
2
, stay in the
atmosphere for a long time
Therefore, we have further
climate change in the pipeline
because of the emissions already
in the atmosphere
Warming will continue, but how much is our
choice
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
But if, and only if, we cut the
global amount of GHG
emissions quickly, we may
avoid escalating warming in
the second half of this century
(the red line)

If we act now to reduce global
emissions, it is still possible to
keep changes within a
manageable range for our
children
Warming will continue, but how much is our
choice
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
When the ocean, land and air get warmer,
things change in the climate system
temperature is not all thats
changing
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Climate variability and change
Long term average
New record highs
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Shift in season and intensity
Sumatra & Java - compared to 1961-90:
Onset of the wet season is now 10 - 20 days later
Onset of the dry season is now 10 - 60 days earlier
Based on Naylor et al. 2007
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Huge annual variability is normal
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Climate change projections: general NOT zoom in
Rough regional forecasts will not be much better
Act on that basis
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Increased riverine, coastal and urban
flooding leading to widespread damage
to infrastructure, livelihoods and
settlements (M)

Increased risk of heat-related mortality
(H)

Increased risk of drought-related water
and food shortage causing malnutrition
(H)
Climate change projections: Asia
20
Climate Training Kit. Module 1A Science and Impacts South Africa
S
o
u
r
c
e
:

I
P
C
C
,

2
0
0
7

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
in addition to sea level rise what more?
Some things are certain:
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Photo: NASA
One thing is for sure:
the future will be
different from the past
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
More certainty about climate change
More uncertainty about its manifestations
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Somethings changing - are you prepared?
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Third Question: What does climate change mean
for the humanitarian sector?
Trends we have observed

Weather related disasters doubled over the
past 2 decades

Increase in small- and medium-scale disasters
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Weather related disasters doubled over the past 2 decades
Increase small- and medium-scale disasters
More surprises/uncertainties
Observed Changes in Disaster Patterns
SOCIOECONOMIC
PROCESSES
Socioeconomic
Pathways
Adaptation and
Mitigation
Actions
Governance
CLIMATE
Natural
Variability
Anthropogenic
Climate Change
RISK Hazards
Exposure
Vulnerability
IMPACTS
EMISSIONS
and Land-use Change
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Risks = Hazards x Vulnerability x Exposure
The number of hazards is
increasing

More people are exposed
to extreme events

The vulnerability of people
and assets is increasing

= Risks are increasing
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Changes in frequency and/or intensity of
hazards
Changes in geographical / seasonal extent of
hazards
Climate trends (temperature, rainfall, sea level
rise) impacting livelihoods etc.
Trends becoming shocks lack of knowledge to
cope
IFRC
A range of effects
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
30
Special report on
extreme events and disasters, a
summary for policy makers


Key messages:
Disaster risk increases (regardless of climate change)
Extreme events are more frequent and more intense, due to climate change

Stronger emphasis on anticipation and risk reduction needed

Better information available
IPCC Summary for Policy makers, 2011
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Potential impact: Floods
Photo: IFRC, Pakistan floods 2010,
Difficult to measure the frequency and intensity of floods, but
generally there has been an increasing trend
Changes in rainfall patterns and precipitation intensity could
put more people at risk from flooding
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Potential impact: Coastal erosion, coastal flooding
and salt water intrusion
Photo: IFRC, Viet Nam coastal dike damages
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Potential impact: Drought
Photo: Jacob Dall
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Possible impact: increasing food insecurity
(Photo: Tamara Leigh/IFRC-Climate Centre)
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
(Photo: Nancy Okwengu/IFRC-Climate Centre)
Possible impact: Changing disease patterns
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Potential impact: Melting ice
Source: NASA UNDP
2002
1978
Source: Barnett et al. (2005)
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Potential impacts: Oceanic changes
Sea levels are rising at a
faster rate

Sea level rise
NOW
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts


Ocean acidification damages
coral reefs reducing their
coastal protection effects
... and fish stocks
decline, eroding
livelihoods for millions
of people
Large scale degradation and/or loss of
coastal and marine ecosystems
the oceans are becoming more acidic
sea surface temperatures are increasing
Potential impacts: Oceanic changes
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
IFRC
Potential impact: tropical cyclones impacts
Source: NOAA
Possibly an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclone
activity (hurricanes/typhoons), coupled with higher storm
surges due to sea level rise
economic/human losses are expected to increase

Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Climate change fingerprint in complex crises

increased demand

failed harvests

less land for agriculture (a.o. urbanisation)

biofuels

distorded markets (ban on exports)

price speculations
Climate
change
related
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Will vulnerable people worldwide have a voice in
geoengineering decisions?
Will there be extra funding for humanitarian work in a
geoengineered future?
Humanitarian concern
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
www.ifrc.org
Saving lives, changing minds.
Key Messages
Climate Change is already happening and will continue
to affect us especially the most vulnerable groups
Rate of change is alarming and mostly caused by men
CC brings another layer of risk
R = Hazard x Vulnerability x Exposure
We already see a lot of observed changes in disaster
patterns
Urgent action is a must
We need to make choices under periods of uncertainty


Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
From IFRC President Konoe
issued at the release of the IPCC AR5 WGII
This is the strong confirmation that risks have
been rising in recent decades

The second message emerging from the report is more positive
Immense capacities exist to addressing risks capacities that
can be even more effective when applied with greater
awareness and investment ahead of potential problems

The third message of the report is about our choices for the future
Past greenhouse gas emissions have already committed us to
rising risks for several decades to come. This report shows that
we can largely handle those now-inevitable changes. For the
second half of the century, however, we face a bigger choice
one that needs to be made now.
Climate Training Kit. Module 1a Climate change science and impacts
Further information
ipcc.ch
climatecentre.org
ifrc.org
Thank you!