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Statistical Process
Control (SPC)
Stephen R. Lawrence
Assoc. Prof. of Operations Mgmt
Stephen.Lawrence@colorado.edu
Leeds.colorado.edu/faculty/lawrence
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Process Control Tools
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Process Control Tools
Process tools assess conditions in existing
processes to detect problems that require
intervention in order to regain lost control.
Check sheets Pareto analysis
Scatter Plots Histograms
Run Charts Control charts
Cause & effect diagrams
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Check Sheets
Check sheets explore what and where
an event of interest is occurring.
Attribute Check Sheet
27 15 19 20 28
Order Types 7am-9am 9am-11am 11am-1pm 1pm-3pm 3pm-5-pm
Emergency
Nonemergency
Rework
Safety Stock
Prototype Order
Other
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Run Charts
time
m
e
a
s
u
r
e
m
e
n
t

Look for patterns and trends
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SCATTERPLOTS
Variable B
x x x
x x x xx
x x x
x xx x x x
x x xx x
xx x x x
x xx x x x
x x xx x x
x xx xxx x x x
x xx xx x x
x x xx x x
x xxx xx x x
x x xxx x x xx
x x xx xx x x
x x x xx x
x xxx xx xx xxx x
x xx xxx x x x
x x x xx x x x
x x x xx
x x xx x x
xx x x x
Larger values of
variable A appear to
be associated with
larger values of
variable B.
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HISTOGRAMS
A statistical tool used to show the extent
and type of variance within the system.
Outcome
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PARETO ANALYSIS
A method for identifying and separating
the vital few from the trivial many.
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

o
f

O
c
c
u
r
r
e
n
c
e
s

Factor
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
I
H
J
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CAUSE & EFFECT DIAGRAMS
Employees
Procedures
and Methods
Training
Speed
Maintenance
Equipment
Condition
Classification
Error
Inspection
BAD
CPU
Pins not
Assigned
Defective
Pins
Received
Defective
Damaged
in storage
CPU Chip
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Example:

Rogue River
Adventures
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Process Variation
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Demings Theory of Variance
Variation causes many problems for most processes
Causes of variation are either common or special
Variation can be either controlled or uncontrolled
Management is responsible for most variation
Management
Management
Management
Employee Controlled Variation
Uncontrolled Variation
Common Cause Special Cause
Categories of Variation
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Causes of Variation
Natural Causes Assignable Causes
What prevents perfection?
Exogenous to process
Not random
Controllable
Preventable
Examples
tool wear
Monday effect
poor maintenance
- Inherent to process
- Random
- Cannot be controlled
- Cannot be prevented
- Examples
weather
accuracy of measurements
capability of machine
Process variation...
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Specification vs. Variation
Product specification
desired range of product attribute
part of product design
length, weight, thickness, color, ...
nominal specification
upper and lower specification limits
Process variability
inherent variation in processes
limits what can actually be achieved
defines and limits process capability
Process may not be capable of meeting
specification!
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Process Capability
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Process Capability
LSL USL Spec
Process variation
Capable process
(Very) capable process
Process not capable
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Process Capability
Measure of capability of process to meet (fall within)
specification limits
Take width of process variation as 6o
If 6o < (USL - LSL), then at least 99.7% of output of
process will fall within specification limits
LSL
USL
Spec
6o
3o
99.7%
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Variation -- RazorBlade
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Process Capability Ratio
Define Process Capability Ratio Cp as
Cp
USL LSL
=

6o
If Cp > 1.0, process is... capable
If Cp < 1.0, process is... not capable
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Process Capability -- Example
A manufacturer of granola bars has a weight specification
2 ounces plus or minus 0.05 ounces. If the standard deviation
of the bar-making machine is 0.02 ounces, is the process capable?
USL = 2 + 0.05 = 2.05 ounces

LSL = 2 - 0.05 = 1.95 ounces

Cp = (USL - LSL) / 6o
= (2.05 - 1.95) / 6(0.02)
= 0.1 / 0.12
= 0.85
Therefore, the process is not capable!
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Process Centering
LSL USL Spec
Capable and centered
Capable, but not centered
Not capable, and
not centered
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Process Centering -- Example
For the granola bar manufacturer, if the process is
incorrectly centered at 2.05 instead of 2.00 ounces, what
fraction of bars will be out of specification?
2.0 LSL=1.95 USL=2.05
50% of production will be out of specification!
Out of spec!
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Process Capability Index Cpk
(

=
o

3
,
3
min
USL LSL
C
pk
If C
pk
> 1.0, process is... Centered & capable
If C
pk
< 1.0, process is... Not centered &/or not capable
Mean
Std dev o
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Cpk Example 1
A manufacturer of granola bars has a weight specification
2 ounces plus or minus 0.05 ounces. If the standard deviation
of the bar-making machine is o = 0.02 ounces and the process
mean is = 2.01, what is the process capability index?
USL = 2.05 oz LSL = 1.95 ounces

Cpk = min[( -LSL) / 3o , (USL- ) / 3o |
= min[(2.011.95) / 0.06 , (2.05 2.01) / 0.06 |
= min[1.0 , 0.67 |
= 0.67
Therefore, the process is not capable and/or not centered !
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Cpk Example 2
Venture Electronics manufactures a line of MP3 audio players.
One of the components manufactured by Venture and used in
its players has a nominal output voltage of 8.0 volts.
Specifications allow for a variation of plus or minus 0.6 volts.
An analysis of current production shows that mean output
voltage for the component is 8.054 volts with a standard
deviation of 0.192 volts. Is the process "capable: of producing
components that meet specification? What fraction of
components will fall outside of specification? What can
management do to improve this fraction?
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Process
Control Charts
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Process Control Charts
Establish capability of process under normal
conditions
Use normal process as benchmark to statistically
identify abnormal process behavior
Correct process when signs of abnormal
performance first begin to appear
Control the process rather than inspect the product!
Statistical technique for tracking a process and
determining if it is going out to control
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Upper Control Limit
Lower Control Limit
6o
3o
Target Spec
Process Control Charts
Upper Spec Limit
Lower Spec Limit
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UCL
Target
LCL
Samples
Time
In control Out of control !
Natural variation
Look for
special
cause !
Back in
control!
Process Control Charts
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When to Take Action
A single point goes beyond control limits
(above or below)
Two consecutive points are near the same limit
(above or below)
A run of 5 points above or below the process mean
Five or more points trending toward either limit
A sharp change in level
Other erratic behavior
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Samples vs. Population
Population
Distribution
Sample
Distribution
Mean
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Types of Control Charts
Attribute control charts
Monitors frequency (proportion) of defectives
p - charts
Defects control charts
Monitors number (count) of defects per unit
c charts
Variable control charts
Monitors continuous variables
x-bar and R charts
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1. Attribute Control Charts
p - charts
Estimate and control the frequency of defects
in a population
Examples
Invoices with error s (accounting)
Incorrect account numbers (banking)
Mal-shaped pretzels (food processing)
Defective components (electronics)
Any product with good/not good distinctions
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Using p-charts
Find long-run proportion defective (p-bar)
when the process is in control.
Select a standard sample size n
Determine control limits
p
p
z p LCL
z p UCL
o
o
+ =
+ =
n
p p
p
) 1 (
= o
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p-chart Example
Chic Clothing is an upscale mail order clothing
company selling merchandise to successful
business women. The company sends out
thousands of orders five days a week. In order to
monitor the accuracy of its order fulfillment
process, 200 orders are carefully checked every
day for errors. Initial data were collected for 24
days when the order fulfillment process was
thought to be "in control." The average percent
defective was found to be 5.94%.
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2. Defect Control Charts
c-charts
Estimate & control the number of defects per unit
Examples
Defects per square yard of fabric
Crimes in a neighborhood
Potholes per mile of road
Bad bytes per packet
Most often used with continuous process (vs. batch)
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Using c-charts
Find long-run proportion defective (c-bar)
when the process is in control.
Determine control limits
c
c
z c LCL
z c UCL
o
o
+ =
+ =
c
c
= o
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2. c-chart Example
Dave's is a restaurant chain that employs independent
evaluators to visit its restaurants as secret shoppers to
the asses the quality of service. The company evaluates
restaurants in two categories, food quality, and service
(promptness, order accuracy, courtesy, friendliness,
etc.) The evaluator considers not only his/her order
experiences, but also evaluations throughout the
restaurant. Initial surveys find that the total number of
service defects per survey is 7.3 when a restaurant is
operating normally.
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3. Control Charts for Variables
x-bar and R charts
Monitor the condition or state of continuously
variable processes
Use to control continuous variables
Length, weight, hardness, acidity, electrical resistance
Examples
Weight of a box of corn flakes (food processing)
Departmental budget variances (accounting
Length of wait for service (retailing)
Thickness of paper leaving a paper-making machine
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x-bar and R charts
Two things can go wrong
process mean goes out of control
process variability goes out of control
Two control solutions
X-bar charts for mean
R charts for variability
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Problems with Continuous Variables
Target
Natural
Process
Distribution
Mean not
Centered
Increased
Variability
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Range (R) Chart
Choose sample size n
Determine average in-control sample ranges
R-bar where R=max-min
Construct R-chart with limits:
n R R /

=
R D LCL R D UCL
3 4
= =
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Mean (x-bar) Chart
Choose sample size n (same as for R-charts)
Determine average of in-control sample
means (x-double-bar)
x-bar = sample mean
k = number of observations of n samples
Construct x-bar-chart with limits:
k x x /

=
R A x LCL R A x UCL
2 2
= + =
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x & R Chart Parameters
n d(2) d(3) A(2) D(3) D(4)
2 1.128 0.853 1.881 0.000 3.269
3 1.693 0.888 1.023 0.000 2.574
4 2.059 0.880 0.729 0.000 2.282
5 2.326 0.864 0.577 0.000 2.114
6 2.534 0.848 0.483 0.000 2.004
7 2.704 0.833 0.419 0.076 1.924
8 2.847 0.820 0.373 0.136 1.864
9 2.970 0.808 0.337 0.184 1.816
10 3.078 0.797 0.308 0.223 1.777
11 3.173 0.787 0.285 0.256 1.744
12 3.258 0.778 0.266 0.284 1.716
16 3.532 0.750 0.212 0.363 1.637
17 3.588 0.744 0.203 0.378 1.622
18 3.640 0.739 0.194 0.391 1.609
19 3.689 0.734 0.187 0.403 1.597
20 3.735 0.729 0.180 0.414 1.586
21 3.778 0.724 0.173 0.425 1.575
22 3.819 0.720 0.167 0.434 1.566
23 3.858 0.716 0.162 0.443 1.557
24 3.895 0.712 0.157 0.452 1.548
25 3.931 0.708 0.153 0.460 1.540
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R and x-bar Chart Example
Resistors for electronic circuits are being
manufactured on a high-speed automated
machine. The machine is set up to produce
resistors of 1,000 ohms each. Fifteen samples of
4 resistors each were taken over a period of time
when the machine was operating normally. The
average range of the samples was found to be R-
bar=21.7 and the average mean of the samples
was x-double-bar=999.1.
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When to Take Action
A single point goes beyond control limits (above or
below)
Two consecutive points are near the same limit
(above or below)
A run of 5 points above or below the process mean
Five or more points trending toward either limit
A sharp change in level
Other statistically erratic behavior
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Control Chart Error Trade-offs
Setting control limits too tight (e.g., 2 ) means
that normal variation will often be mistaken as an
out-of-control condition (Type I error).
Setting control limits too loose (e.g., 4 )
means that an out-of-control condition will be
mistaken as normal variation (Type II error).
Using control limits works well to balance Type I
and Type II errors in many circumstances.
3o is not sacred -- use judgement.
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Video:

SPC at
Frito Lay
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Statistical Process
Control