AC10410 and EC10910

Lecture 9
Introduction to Probability
March 1st

Chance and probability

We live in an uncertain world making hundreds
of guesses, calculated risks and some
gambles

Important in business

The concept of probability or chance is one

that arises quite naturally we talk of some
things being more common than others, of
rare events, of inevitable happenings, etc.

Very often we are happy to conjure up such

probabilities ourselves thus we are happy to
assert that a fair coin has a 50:50 chance of
landing heads, or a fair six-sided die has a one
in six chance of giving a 6 when thrown, etc.
This is an example of assigning probabilities
by arguments of symmetry.

Ground rules - The Axioms of

Probability

all probabilities must lie between 0 and

1 (or 0% and 100%);
an event that is certain to happen has
probability 1 (or 100%);
in a situation where two events cannot
both occur together, then the
probability that either of them occurs is
the sum of the two individual
probabilities. The two events are called
mutually exclusive
Immediate consequence:

Probability of not occurring

=
1 Probability of occurring

Allocation of probabilities

Probabilities are usually allocated

to events using arguments of:
symmetry, where all possible outcomes are
listed in such a way that we are happy that all
items in the list are equally likely then
the probability that a particular event occurs is:
p =Number of outcomes in which the event occurs
Total number of possible outcomes
geometrical arguments
historical frequency (as in assessment of risk
or weather forecasting)
subjective assessments

1.
First
Coin

Second Probabil
Coin
ity

Head

Head

Head

Tail

Tail

Head

Tail

Tail

There are four possible equally likely

outcomes when tossing two fair coins.

2.

Three balls are chosen at random from

this container:
The probability of:
Firstly pulling a red ball out of the bag is
4 / 9 = 0.444 = 44.4%
Secondly pulling a yellow ball out of the bag is 2 / 8 =
0.25 = 25%
Thirdly pulling a red ball out of the bag is
3 / 7 = 0.4286 = 42.9%

3.
Marketing
(366
students)

B&M

Economics

A+F

Female

28

62

34

53

Male

42

79

29

39

The probability of a student:

Doing a Business and Management degree:
P = 62 + 79 = 141 = 0.3852 / 38.5%
366
366
Being Female:
P = 28 + 62 + 34 + 53 = 177 = 0.4836 / 48.4%
366
366
Being Male and doing a Marketing or Economics
degree:
P = 42 + 29 = 71 = 0.194 / 19.4%
366
366

Venn diagrams
Two or more probabilities can be added
together only when the probabilities being
added refer to events that cannot happen
simultaneously, mutually exclusive events.
Ideas about such situations may be
clarified by representing events
diagrammatically if two events cannot
occur together, then they are represented
by non-overlapping areas; if it is possible
for them to occur together, their
representations should overlap.

Addition rule for

probabilities
Probability of EITHER of two events
=
Probability of the first
+
Probability of the second
Probability of both

ADDITION RULE

This is often written

P ( A or B )
= P (A ) + P ( B ) - P ( A and B )
OR

P( A B) P( A) P( B) P( A B)

Example
A card is drawn from an ordinary
pack of playing cards. Find the probability
that a card is
a) a club b) a diamond c) a King
d) a club or a diamond e) a club or a King

a) 13/52 =
b) 13/52 =
c) 4/52=1/13

d) Mutually exclusive events so a) + b)

13/52 + 13/52 = 26/52 =
e) Not mutually exclusive
13/52 +4/52 - 1/52 = 16/52 = 4/13
Using P ( A or B ) = P (A ) + P ( B ) - P ( A and B)
or just count the number of relevant cards
13 + 3 = 16 then 16/52 = 4/13

A survey
conducted by
18 20
the National
Library found
20 and
the following
over
results about
their members:

English

Irish

28

20

24

35

Scottish Welsh

What is the probability that a randomly chosen

member is aged 20 and over and Welsh?
35 / 123 = 0.2846
If the randomly selected member is 18-20, what is
the probability that they are English?
Number in interval 18-20 = 28+6+4+20 = 58

P (English | 18-20) = 28/58 = 0.4828

(this is called a conditional probability)

Odds
Odds against
=
Probability of not occurring
Probability of occurring
Example
Two heads in two tosses
Probability = = 25%
Odds are 3 to 1 against

Example : Roulette
A standard US roulette wheel is divided into 38
arcs of equal length bearing the numbers
00,0,1,2,,35,36 as shown. The number of
the arc on which the ball stops is the outcome
of one play of the game. The arcs are coloured
as follows:

0 00 1 2 3
3536
4
5
34
33
6
7
32
31
8
9
30
29
10
11
28
27
12
13
26
25
14
15
24
2322
16
21 20 19 1817

What are the probabilities of obtaining

(i) a red score
(ii) an even score
(iii) an odd black score?
What are the odds against a green score?

Example: Consumer complaints 1

A manufacturer of electromechanical kitchen utensils

investigated 100 complaints received from customers
One complaint was chosen at random. What are the
probabilities that:
(1) It was based on an electrical fault
(2) It was for a complaint during the guarantee period
(3) It was within the guarantee period given that it was
electrical

During
guarantee
period

Outside
guarantee
period

Electrical

18

12

Mechanical

13

22

Appearance

32

Sequences of events
When there are sequential events the outcomes
of earlier events are likely to affect the later
results.

The Multiplication Rule is used to find

Probability of event A followed by event B
=
Probability of A x Probability of B (adjusted
for A having occurred if necessary)

The Multiplication Rule

P( A and B ) = P(A) x P( B|A )

or
P ( A B ) = P ( A ) x P ( B|A )
For Independent events
P(AB)=P(A)xP(B)

1.

The probability of getting two

consecutive 3s when throwing a die:

1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36

2. The chance of two consecutive heads
when tossing a fair coin is
=

3. The chance of no sixes in two throws

of a die is

5 5 25
x 0.6944
6 6 36

(these events are called independent )

4. The probability of getting 3 consecutive
Jacks from a pack of playing cards:

4/52 x 3/51 x 2/50 = 1/5525

(these events are not independent )

Consumer Complaints-2

Two complaints
chosen at random.
What are the
probabilities that:
(1) both were based
on an electrical
fault;
(2) both were for
complaints during
the guarantee
period;
(3) both
concerned the
same type of fault.

Electrical Mechanical Appearance

A manufacturer of
electromechanical
kitchen utensils
investigated 100
complaints received
from customers
and classified them
as in the table.

During
Guarantee
period

Outside
Guarante
e
period

18

12

13

22

32

Consumer complaints - answers

(1) both were based on an electrical fault

30 29
x
0.0879
100 99

(2) both were for complaints during the guarantee period

63 62
x
0.3945
100 99

(3) both concerned the same type of fault

P (EE) + P(MM) + P(AA)=
30 29 35 34 35 34
x +
x +
x
100 99 100 99 100 99
65

0.3283
198

The chances of winning the National

Lottery!
Six numbers and a bonus number are
chosen at random in a draw. To win the
jackpot, you need to match six numbers
from the 49 balls put in the draw.

6/49 x 5/48 x 4/47 x 3/46 x 2/45 x

1/44 = 1/13983816 !

The chance of no matches at all is

43 42 41 40 39 38 6,096 ,454

44 %
49 48 47 46 45 44 13,983 ,816

Examples
Situation

Event

Coin

Head

1/2

1/2

1:1

Die

1/6

5/6

5 to 1

Die

Not a 6

5/6

1/6

1 to 5

Chance Chance
of NOT

ODDS

Die

Even
1/2
1/2
Evens
score
2 coins
Two
1/4
3/4
3 to 1
heads
2 dice
No
25/36
11/36 11 to 25
sixes
Cards
Two
1/221 220/221 220 to 1
Aces
13,983,815
Lottery Jackpot 1/13,983, 13,983,815/13,98
3,816
816

Lottery

No
prize

6,096,454 7,887,362
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