Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Using NPV
8-1
Next year (t=1), we will know cash flows CF2 through CF6 with
certainty; they will be either $1000 or $400 per year.
8-3
t=1
t=2
t=3
t=4
t=5
t=6
CF0 = -500
CF1 = -1500
CF2 = 820
CF3 = 820
CF4 = 820
CF5 = 820
CF5 = 820
8-4
1
820
5
0.15
0.15
1
0.15
1500
NPV0 - 500
1 0.15
1 0.15
NPV0 585.884
8-5
1
NPV1 - 1500 1000
5
0
.
15
0.151 0.15
1
NPV1 - 1500 400
5
0
.
15
0.151 0.15
ACCEPT,
NPV1=$1852
conduct
$500 study
failure,
p=30%
REJECT,
NPV1=$0
do nothing
8-10
Second example
CF = $180/year, forever,
PV0 = 180/0.1 = $1800
Investment costs
$1100 today
Failure,
p=50%
CF = $30/year, forever,
PV0 = 30/0.1 = $300
Or abandon at t=1 for $500
8-13
Second example
The first timeline shows the project, if successful and, of course, never
abandoned.
The second timeline shows the project, if an eventual failure and not
abandoned.
The third timeline shows the project, if known to be a failure at t=1 and
abandoned at t=1 for $500 (the projects t=1 cash flow will be earned).
t=0
CF0 = -1100
t=0
CF0 = -1100
t=0
CF0 = -1100
t=1
t=2
CF1 = 180
CF2 = 180
t=1
t=2
CF1 = 30
CF2 = 30
t=1
CF1 = 30
+ 500 salvage
8-14
Second example
Second example
Second example
Second example
Abandonment/shutdown options
Growth/expansion options
Flexibility options