Forecasting

Rohit Kapoor

Motivating Example: A Reality

When Big Bazaar launched this scheme, Sabse Sasta Teen
Din, in 2006, they sold goods worth of Rs. 260 million.
Encouraged by the response, they ran the scheme for 3 days in
2007. During this 3-day period, approximately 6 million people
visited their stores. The 43 outlets of Big Bazaar sold goods
worth Rs. 1.25 billion. A total of 108 thousands bed-sheets,
30,000 cell-phones and 11,000 pieces of apparel were sold.
There were reports that the company had to shutdown many of
the outlets as they had not anticipated the customer response and
the stocks of several popular items had been exhausted.
Learning: predicting the demand for such schemes is always
tricky

Characteristics of Forecasts
During the economic downturn in 2001, CISCO found that its sales
plunged by 30 percent and it was stuck with huge inventory. CISCO
decided to write - off an inventory of $2.2 billion, and CISCOs stock
price dropped to a record low at $13.36 (stock price was quoted at $83
in 2000). Though all networking companies are affected by the
downturn, the losses suffered by CISCO surprised everyone. CSICO
relied very heavily on its state of the art virtual close software and
expected that demand will rise when other companies in the industry
expected the demand to decline. CISCOs software had built-in
growth bias and was not designed to capture the impact of change in
economy. Experts believe that this over reliance on the forecasting
technology led people to undervalue human judgment and intuition,
and inhibited frank conversations among supply chain partners. The
CEO John Chambers admitted in the interview that We never built
models to anticipate something of this magnitude
www.cio.com/article/viewArticle/30413/What_Went_Wrong_at_Cisco_in.

Characteristics of Forecasts
Contd.
Longer the forecast horizon, the worse the forecast
7-Eleven Japan has exploited this key property to improve
its performance. The company has instituted a replenishment
process that enables it to respond to an order within hours.
For example, if a store manager places an order by 10:00
AM, the order is delivered by 7:00 PM the same day.
Therefore, the manager only has to forecast what will sell
that night less than 12 hours before the actual sale.

Aggregate forecasts are more accurate

Farther up the supply chain, more will be the error
in forecasting

An Interesting Forecasting by
Asian Paints
Asian Paints found that in certain districts of Maharashtra
there is a spike in demand for a 50-100 ml packs of
deep orange shade during a specific period of the year.
Further investigations revealed that a few districts of
Maharashtra observe a local festival called Pola, and
during that festival, farmers paint the horns of bullocks
with deep orange shade. Asian Paints is aware of the
fact that the paint-buying decision is linked to festivals,
and India being a diverse country with different regions
celebrating various festivals at different times of the
year, it is important for Asian Paints to capture the
same in their forecasting models.
www.cio.in/article/view/viewArticle?ARTICLEID=1237

Analytical Methods for

Forecasting
Static Methods
Adaptive Methods
Casual Methods

Static Methods
Case 1: Forecasting the trend form
Case 2: Forecasting seasonality
Case 3: Forecasting combination of
seasonality and trend

Case 1: Forecasting the Trend

Form
A constant increase or decrease in demand
denotes
Linear trend
Model
Forecast (t) = a + b * t

Case 1: Forecasting the Trend

Form
D(t)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

328
310
355
362
375
380
408
415
417
412
429
434
449
471
475
489

D(t)
600
500

Demand

400
300

D(t)

200
100
0
1

Period

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

Case 1: Forecasting the Trend

Form Calculations

Mean
Sum

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
8.5

D(t)
328
310
355
362
375
380
408
415
417
412
429
434
449
471
475
489
406.8125

b
a

10.72206
315.675

t-Tavg
-7.5
-6.5
-5.5
-4.5
-3.5
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5

D(t) - Davg (t-Tavg) * (D(t)-Davg) (t-tavg)^2 Forecast Abs error

-78.81
591.09
56.25
326.40
1.60
-96.81
629.28
42.25
337.12
27.12
-51.81
284.97
30.25
347.84
7.16
-44.81
201.66
20.25
358.56
3.44
-31.81
111.34
12.25
369.29
5.71
-26.81
67.03
6.25
380.01
0.01
1.19
-1.78
2.25
390.73
17.27
8.19
-4.09
0.25
401.45
13.55
10.19
5.09
0.25
412.17
4.83
5.19
7.78
2.25
422.90
10.90
22.19
55.47
6.25
433.62
4.62
27.19
95.16
12.25
444.34
10.34
42.19
189.84
20.25
455.06
6.06
64.19
353.03
30.25
465.78
5.22
68.19
443.22
42.25
476.51
1.51
82.19
616.41
56.25
487.23
1.77
7.57
3645.5
340

Forecast vs. Actual Demand

Actual Demand vs. Forecasted Demand
600

Demand

500
400
D(t)

300

Forecast

200
100
0
1

Period

10 11

12

13 14

15 16

Estimating Forecasting Error

Four ways:
Mean error (ME)
Value close to 0
Magnitude of the error?

Mean absolute deviation (MAD)

Mean square error (MSE)
Higher value of error should attract higher penalties!

Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)

Different Estimates of Forecast

Error
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Mean

Sales
328
310
355
362
375
380
408
415
417
412
429
434
449
471
475
489

Forecast
326
337
348
359
369
380
391
401
412
423
434
444
455
466
476
487

Error
2
-27
7
3
6
0
17
14
5
-11
-5
-10
-6
5
-1
2
0.0625
ME

Absolute Square Absolute

Deviation
Error
% Error
2
4
0.61%
27
729
8.71%
7
49
1.97%
3
9
0.83%
6
36
1.60%
0
0
0.00%
17
289
4.17%
14
196
3.37%
5
25
1.20%
11
121
2.67%
5
25
1.17%
10
100
2.30%
6
36
1.34%
5
25
1.06%
1
1
0.21%
2
4
0.41%
7.5625 103.0625 1.98%
MAD
MSE
MAPE

Case 2: Forecasting Seasonality

Block
1

Demand Data

Demand
6
55
249
646
24
73
140
569
12
28
136
631

700
600
500
Demand

Time
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Period
within
block
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

400

300

Demand

200
100
0
1

Period

10

11

12

Case 2: Forecasting Seasonality

Periodicity
p=4
Peak demand at 4, 8, 12
Lowest demand at 1, 5, 9
Data is divided into blocks
m blocks having p demand periods
Seasonality index
Block j and period i
Seasonality index for ith period
Average seasonality index for period i across the blocks

Case 2: Forecasting Seasonality

Some Equations
Seasonality index of period i for block j
S(i, j) = (di)/[(d1 + d2 + + dp)/p]
For each period i within block j

Average seasonality index for period i

within a block
S(i)

Case 2: Forecasting Seasonality

Analysis
Time
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Block
1

Period
within
block
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

Demand
6
55
249
646
24
73
140
569
12
28
136
631

Seasonal
Index of
Average Period
0.03
0.23
239
1.04
2.70
0.12
0.36
201.5
0.69
2.82
0.06
0.14
201.75
0.67
3.13

Case 2: Forecasting Seasonality

Seasonality Index Calculation
Period/Block S(i, 1)
1
0.03
2
0.23
3
1.04
4
2.70

S(i, 2)
0.12
0.36
0.69
2.82

Average
Seasonality
S(i, 3)
Index
0.06
0.07
0.14
0.24
0.67
0.80
3.13
2.88

Case 2: Forecasting Seasonality

De-seasonalizing Demand
De-seasonalized demand data (t)
Demand(t)/S(t)

Forecast (t)
[Level (t)] * Seasonal index (t)

Case 2: Forecasting Seasonality

Calculations
Time
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Mean

Block
1

Period
within
block
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

Demand
6
55
249
646
24
73
140
569
12
28
136
631

Seasonal
DeIndex of Seasonlized
Average Period
Demand Forecast Abs Error
0.03
88
14
8
0.23
226
52
3
239
1.04
310
171
78
2.70
224
613
33
0.12
353
14
10
0.36
300
52
21
201.5
0.69
174
171
31
2.82
197
613
44
0.06
177
14
2
0.14
115
52
24
201.75
0.67
169
171
35
3.13
219
613
18
213
26

Case 2: Forecasting Seasonality

Fit
Demand Data Vs. Actual Data

700
600
Demand

500
400

Demand

300

Forecast

200
100
0
1

Period

10

11

12

Case 3: Forecasting Combination

of Seasonality and Trend
Sales
45
335
520
100
70
370
590
170
100
585
830
285
100
725
1160
310

Sales
1400
1200
1000
Demand

Quarter
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

800
Sales

600
400
200
0
1

Quarter

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Case 3: Forecasting Combination

of Seasonality and Trend
Observation
Seasonality with periodicity, p = 4
Demand seems to be increasing every year
Hence, trend component is also present

Case 3: Forecasting Combination

of Seasonality and Trend
Methodology
Forecasting model
Demand (t) = (Level (t) + Trend parameter * t) * Seasonality
parameter (t) + random error

Step 1: Determine the seasonality index for each time

period within a block (similar to Case 2)
Step 2: De-seasonalize the demand data (similar to
Case 2)
Step 3: Determine the trend and level components for
the de-seasonalized data series (similar to Case 1)
Step 4: Finalize the forecasting model

Case 3: Forecasting Combination

of Seasonality and Trend
Analysis
Time
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Block
1

Period
within
Block
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

Demand
45
335
520
100
70
370
590
170
100
585
830
285
100
725
1160
310

Average Seasonality
Demand
Index
0.18
1.34
250
2.08
0.40
0.23
1.23
300
1.97
0.57
0.22
1.30
450
1.84
0.63
0.17
1.26
573.75
2.02
0.54

Case 3: Forecasting Combination

of Seasonality and Trend
Analysis
Period/Block
1
2
3
4

1
0.18
1.34
2.08
0.40

2
0.23
1.23
1.97
0.57

3
0.22
1.30
1.84
0.63

4
0.17
1.26
2.02
0.54

Average
Seasonality
Index
0.20
1.28
1.98
0.54

Case 3: Forecasting Combination

of Seasonality and Trend
Analysis

Mean
Sum

Time
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
8.5

Deseasonlized
Demand
222
261
263
187
346
288
298
318
494
456
420
533
494
565
586
579
394.28

t-Tavg
-7.5
-6.5
-5.5
-4.5
-3.5
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
b
a

D(t) - Davg (t-Tavg) * (D(t) - Davg)

-172
1290.14
-133
867.28
-131
722.82
-207
933.27
-49
169.89
-106
265.44
-96
144.05
-77
38.29
100
49.82
61
91.86
25
63.21
138
484.23
100
448.37
170
936.40
192
1248.66
185
1388.05
27
165.74

9141.77

(t-tavg)^2
56.25
42.25
30.25
20.25
12.25
6.25
2.25
0.25
0.25
2.25
6.25
12.25
20.25
30.25
42.25
56.25
340

Case 3: Forecasting Combination

of Seasonality and Trend
Analysis
Step 1, 2 and 3 are complete
Step 4:
Forecast(t) = (165.74 + 27 * t) * Seasonality Index(t)

Case 3: Forecasting Combination

of Seasonality and Trend
Analysis
Time
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Block
1

Period
within
Block
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

Demand
45
335
520
100
70
370
590
170
100
585
830
285
100
725
1160
310

Average Demand
250

300

450

573.75

DeSeasonality seasonlized
Index
Demand Forecast Abs Error
0.18
222
39
6
1.34
261
282
53
2.08
263
487
33
0.40
187
146
46
0.23
346
61
9
1.23
288
420
50
1.97
298
700
110
0.57
318
204
34
0.22
494
83
17
1.30
456
558
27
1.84
420
913
83
0.63
533
261
24
0.17
494
104
4
1.26
565
696
29
2.02
586
1126
34
0.54
579
319
9

Case 3: Forecasting Combination

of Seasonality and Trend Fit
Forecasted Demand Vs. Actual Demand
1400
1200
Demand

1000
800

Demand

600

Forecast

400
200
0
1

Period

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Adaptive Methods

Moving Average
Simple Exponential Smoothening
Holts Method
Winters Method

Basic Data
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

TV Sales
30
32
30
39
33
34
34
38
36
39
30
36
38
30
35
30
34
40
36
32
40
36
40
34

CD Sales
40
47
50
49
56
53
55
63
68
65
72
69
79
82
80
85
94
89
96
100
100
105
108
110

AC Sales
13
7
23
32
58
60
90
93
63
39
37
29
36
21
47
81
112
139
230
201
122
84
74
62

TV Sales
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Month

23

21

19

17

15

13

11

TV Sales

T V Sales

TV Sales

CD Sales
CD Sales
120

80
60

CD Sales

40
20

Month

22

19

16

13

10

CD Sales

100

AC Sales
AC Sales

250

AC Sales

200
150
AC Sales

100
50
0
1

11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Month

Moving Average Method

Time series that fluctuates about a constant
base level
Ft,1
Forecast for period t + 1made after observing xt
Ft,1= Average of last N observations
= average of xt, xt-1, xt-2, , xt-N+1

Moving Average Method

Calculations
Month TV Sales MAF (N = 2) Error MAF (N = 3) Error MAF (N = 4) Error MAF (N = 5)
1
30
2
32
3
30
31
1
4
39
31
8
30.67
8.33
5
33
34.5
1.5
33.67
0.67
32.75
0.25
6
34
36
2
34.00
0.00
33.50
0.50
32.80
7
34
33.5
0.5
35.33
1.33
34.00
0.00
33.60
8
38
34
4
33.67
4.33
35.00
3.00
34.00
9
36
36
0
35.33
0.67
34.75
1.25
35.60
10
39
37
2
36.00
3.00
35.50
3.50
35.00
11
30
37.5
7.5
37.67
7.67
36.75
6.75
36.20
12
36
34.5
1.5
35.00
1.00
35.75
0.25
35.40
13
38
33
5
35.00
3.00
35.25
2.75
35.80
14
30
37
7
34.67
4.67
35.75
5.75
35.80
15
35
34
1
34.67
0.33
33.50
1.50
34.60
16
30
32.5
2.5
34.33
4.33
34.75
4.75
33.80
17
34
32.5
1.5
31.67
2.33
33.25
0.75
33.80
18
40
32
8
33.00
7.00
32.25
7.75
33.40
19
36
37
1
34.67
1.33
34.75
1.25
33.80
20
32
38
6
36.67
4.67
35.00
3.00
35.00
21
40
34
6
36.00
4.00
35.50
4.50
34.40
22
36
36
0
36.00
0.00
37.00
1.00
36.40
23
40
38
2
36.00
4.00
36.00
4.00
36.80
24
34
38
4
38.67
4.67
37.00
3.00
36.80

Error MAF (N = 6) Error

1.20
0.40
4.00
0.40
4.00
6.20
0.60
2.20
5.80
0.40
3.80
0.20
6.60
2.20
3.00
5.60
0.40
3.20
2.80

33.00
33.67
34.67
35.67
35.67
35.17
35.50
36.17
34.83
34.67
33.17
33.83
34.50
34.17
34.50
35.33
36.33
37.33

1.00
4.33
1.33
3.33
5.67
0.83
2.50
6.17
0.17
4.67
0.83
6.17
1.50
2.17
5.50
0.67
3.67
3.33

Moving Average Method

N
2
3
4
5
6

MAD
3.27
3.21
2.78
2.79
3.08

Simple Exponential Smoothing

A time series that fluctuates about a base
level
At = xt + (1 ) At-1
A0 = 32
= 0.1

Simple Exponential Smoothing

Calculations
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

TV Sa le s
30
32
30
39
33
34
34
38
36
39
30
36
38
30
35
30
34
40
36
32
40
36
40
34

Fore ca st
32
31.8
31.82
31.64
32.37
32.44
32.59
32.73
33.26
33.53
34.08
33.67
33.91
34.32
33.88
34.00
33.60
33.64
34.27
34.45
34.20
34.78
34.90
35.41

At
31.8
31.82
31.64
32.37
32.44
32.59
32.73
33.26
33.53
34.08
33.67
33.91
34.32
33.88
34.00
33.60
33.64
34.27
34.45
34.20
34.78
34.90
35.41
35.27

et
2.00
0.20
1.82
7.36
0.63
1.56
1.41
5.27
2.74
5.47
4.08
2.33
4.09
4.32
1.12
4.00
0.40
6.36
1.73
2.45
5.80
1.22
5.10
1.41

Simple Exponential Smoothing

Alpha
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5

MAD
3.20
3.04
2.94
2.89
2.88
2.90
2.94
2.98
3.05
3.14

Simple Exponential Smoothing

some concepts
If = 2/(N + 1)
Equivalent to N-period moving average

Larger the value of

More weight is given to the most recent
observations
= 0.2?
= 0.5?

Holts Method: Exponential

Smoothing with Trend
Base Level at the end of tth period = Lt
The per-period trend at the end of tth period = Tt
For e.g., if L20 = 20 and T20 = 2. Implication?

Lt = xt + (1 ) (Lt-1 + Tt-1)
Tt = (Lt - Lt-1 ) + (1 ) Tt-1
Ft,k = Lt + k * Tt
T0 = average monthly increase in the time series
during the previous year
L0 = Last months observation

Holts Method Calculations

Let, the CD sales during each of the last 12
months are given by 4, 6, 8, 10, 14, 18, 20,
22, 24, 28, 31, 34.
T0 = [(6 - 4) + (8 6) + (10 8) + + (34 31)]/11 = 2.73
L0 = 34
= 0.3
= 0.1

Holts Method Calculations

Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

CD Sales
40
47
50
49
56
53
55
63
68
65
72
69
79
82
80
85
94
89
96
100
100
105
108
110

Lt
37.71
42.47
46.85
49.70
53.78
55.80
57.73
61.40
65.51
67.57
71.03
72.59
76.57
80.32
82.40
85.29
90.00
91.92
95.27
98.84
101.38
104.61
107.78
110.61

Tt
2.83
3.02
3.15
3.12
3.22
3.10
2.98
3.05
3.16
3.05
3.09
2.94
3.04
3.11
3.01
3.00
3.17
3.04
3.07
3.12
3.06
3.08
3.09
3.06

ft-1,1
36.73
40.53
45.49
50.00
52.82
57.00
58.90
60.71
64.45
68.67
70.62
74.12
75.52
79.61
83.44
85.41
88.29
93.17
94.96
98.35
101.97
104.44
107.69
110.87

et
3.27
6.47
4.51
1.00
3.18
4.00
3.90
2.29
3.55
3.67
1.38
5.12
3.48
2.39
3.44
0.41
5.71
4.17
1.04
1.65
1.97
0.56
0.31
0.87

Choice of &

Alpha

0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9

0.1
2.86
2.77
2.85
2.96
3.07
3.19
3.32
3.43
3.54

0.2
2.80
2.73
2.87
3.00
3.13
3.26
3.39
3.53
3.69

0.3
2.74
2.76
2.91
3.05
3.19
3.33
3.47
3.67
3.85

Beta
0.4
2.70
2.79
2.95
3.11
3.25
3.40
3.60
3.81
4.02

0.5
2.75
2.84
2.99
3.17
3.31
3.48
3.72
3.94
4.23

0.6
2.80
2.92
3.04
3.23
3.36
3.59
3.84
4.07
4.46

0.7
2.83
2.97
3.13
3.30
3.43
3.69
3.95
4.27
4.69

0.8
2.86
2.98
3.22
3.35
3.50
3.78
4.07
4.47
4.95

0.9
2.92
2.99
3.29
3.39
3.58
3.88
4.21
4.68
5.25

Winters Method
c = number of periods in the length of the seasonal
pattern
c = 4 for quarterly data; c = 12 for monthly data.

st = seasonal multiplicative factor for month t,

obtained after observing xt.
Month 7 is July and s7 = 2 (lets say!)
After observing months 7 air conditioner sales, we
believe that Julys air conditioner sales will (all other
things being equal)
Equal twice the sales expected during an average month.

If month 24 is December and s24 = 0.4, what will be the

implication?

Winters Method

Lt = (xt/st-c) + (1 ) (Lt-1 + Tt-1)

Tt = (Lt - Lt-1 ) + (1 ) Tt-1
st = (xt/Lt) + (1 ) st-c
ft,k = (Lt + k * Tt) * St+k-c

Initialization of Winters Method

L0 = estimate of base at beginning of month 1
T0 = estimate of trend at beginning of month 1
S-11 = estimate of January seasonal factor at the
beginning of month 1
S-10 = estimate of February seasonal factor at the
beginning of month 1
.
S0 = estimate of December seasonal factor at the
beginning of month 1.

Initialization of Winters Method

Variety of methods are available to estimate
above parameters
A simple approach:
Suppose we have two years of data

Year 2: 4, 3, 10, 14, 25, 26, 38, 40, 28, 17, 16, 13
Year 1: 9, 6, 18, 27, 48, 50, 75, 77, 52, 33, 31, 24
Total sales during year 2 = 234
Total sales during year 1 = 450

Initialization of Winters Method

T0 = [(Avg. monthly sales during year 1) (Avg.
monthly sales during year 2)]/12
T0 = 1.5

L0 = Avg. monthly demand during year 1.

Further correction
This estimates the base at the middle of the year 1
Month 6.5 of year 1
Hence, to bring this estimate to the end of the year
Add, (12 6.5)T0 = 5.5T0
L0 = 37.5 + 5.5(1.5) = 45.75

Initialization of Winters Method

To estimate the seasonality factor for a
given month (say, January = s-11)
we take an estimate of January seasonality of
year 2 and year 1 and average them.
In year 2, average monthly demand = 19.5
In January of year 2, number of ACs sold = 4
Therefore, s-11 = [(4/19.5) + (9/37.5)]/2 = 0.22

Initialization of Winters Method

s-10 = 0.16, .., s0 = 0.65
Observation
Sum of initial seasonal factor estimates should
average to 1

At the beginning of month 1, our forecast

for month 1 AC sales is
f0,1 = (L0 + T0)s0+1-12 = (45.75 + 1.5)0.22 = 10.40

Initialization of Winters Method

At the beginning of month 1, our forecast
for month 7 AC sales is
f0,7 = (L0 + 7T0)s0+7-12 = (45.75 + 7 *1.5) 1.97 = 110.81

For
= 0.5
= 0.4
= 0.6

Winters Method for AirConditioners

Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Sales
13
7
23
32
58
60
90
93
63
39
37
29

Lt
52.83
50.58
49.13
46.93
45.73
44.90
44.80
44.77
44.53
44.37
44.52
44.41

Tt
3.73
1.34
0.22
-0.75
-0.93
-0.89
-0.57
-0.36
-0.31
-0.25
-0.09
-0.10

st
0.24
0.15
0.48
0.70
1.27
1.34
2.00
2.07
1.41
0.88
0.83
0.65

ft-1,1
10.52
8.88
25.78
35.48
59.16
59.74
86.90
90.76
62.68
38.73
36.34
29.03

Error
2.48
1.88
2.78
3.48
1.16
0.26
3.10
2.24
0.32
0.27
0.66
0.03

Some Final Thoughts

Indian Contexts
Businesses uses Gregorian calendar
Most of the festivals uses lunar calendar
festivals (Diwali, Eid, Chinese festival ) occur in
different weeks or months

Inauspicious periods