Module 1 PowerPoint Presentation

Module 1
Introduction to Climate Change Science
One UN Training Service Platform

on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn
Learning Objectives
2
1. Explain the basic

concepts of climate change
science
2. Identify the
anthropogenic drivers of
climate change
By the end of the

module
participants will be
able to:
4. Analyze different climate

change scenarios and their
implications

3. Explain observed and

projected trends in the
climate
Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
Overview
3
OVERVIEW
Section 1
Section 2
Section 3
Section 4
Section 5
Introduction to
Climate
Change
Science
Anthropogenic
Drivers of
Climate Change
Observed
Trends and
Impacts of
Climate Change
Projected
Trends and
Impacts of
Climate Change
Sources of
Scientific Data

Section 1

Introduction to Climate
Change Science
What Is Climate?
5
Weather
Climate
What is
happening in the
atmosphere at any
given time
Average weather
over longer time
frames
Source: World Meteorological Organization

Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
Complexity of the Global

Climate System
6
Source: IPCC 2007, p96. Further information: WMO

Website
What Is the Greenhouse Effect?

7
Source: IPCC 2007. Further info: WMO Website

NASA Video on the

Greenhouse Effect
8
Video: Understand how water vapor, carbon

dioxide, and other gases cause the Earths
greenhouse effect
URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzCA60WnoMk
Factors Shaping the Climate

Climate Forcings
9
Source: NOAAA National Climatic Data Center

Natural Climate Fluctuations

Example of El Nio and La Nia
10
Source: NOAA. Further information: WMO Website

Climate Change and Global

Warming
11
Global Warming
Refers to the overall

warming of the planet,
based on average
temperature over the
entire surface of the Earth
Climate Change
Refers to changes in
climate characteristics,
including temperature,
humidity, rainfall, wind,
and severe weather
events over long term
periods
Further information: WMO Website

Observed Change in Surface

Temperature (19012012)
12
Source:
Source: IPCC 2013, p4
Tools to Predict and Project

Changes in the Climate
13
Climate Prediction
A climate prediction or climate forecast is an attempt to produce an estimate of
the actual evolution of the climate in the future.
Emissions Scenario
Emissions scenarios describe future releases to the atmosphere of greenhouse
gases, aerosols, and other pollutants and, along with information on land use and
land cover, provide inputs to climate models.
Climate Model
A numerical representation of the climate system based on the physical, chemical
and biological properties of its components, their interactions and feedback
processes, and accounting for some of its known properties.
Climate Projection
A climate projection is the simulated response of the climate system to a scenario
of future emission or concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols, generally
derived using climate models.
Source: IPCC 2013 and IPCC Website. Further info: WMO Website
Projected Change in Average

Surface Temperature
14
Time Period: 1986-2005 to 2081-2100

Scenario RCP 2.6
Scenario RCP 8.5

Climate Change Has an Impact on:

15
Ecosystems
Biodiversity, carbon storage,

habitats,
fresh water, health,

Human systems Agriculture,
Urban systems
Transport, buildings, lifestyle,
manufacturing, natural
Economic systems Energy,
capital industries,
Social systems
Equity, migration, peace and

conflict,
Climate Change Science Allows

Us to:
16
Understand how and

why the climate is
changing
Assess how humans
are influencing the
climate
Project how the
climate may change
in the future
Support
policy/decisionmaking and changes
in behaviors

Source: National Science Foundation

Photo Credit: Niwot Ridge lter site/John W. Marr
Why is Climate Change Science

Important?
17
Sound weather data and forecasts

important for:
Short-term planning
Emergency response
Climate models help to forecast long

term climate scenarios
Important input for vulnerability assessments and

adaptation planning
Fosters climate resilient development and avoids maladaption

History of Climate Change Science

18
1824
Argument raised that the temperature of the Earth can be

augmented by the interposition of the atmosphere
1861
Indication that CO2 and H2O can cause changes in the

climate
1895
1938
First proposal of the idea of a man-made greenhouse

effect
Proof that doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration
resulted in an increase in the mean global temperature of
2C
1950s
Start of interdisciplinary field of carbon cycle science
1958
The high-accuracy measurements of atmospheric CO2

concentration
1970s
Other greenhouse gases widely recognised
1979
The first World Climate Conference in Geneva
1988
Establishment of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC)
1990
The first IPCC report

Further information: BBC
Website

19
Section 2

Anthropogenic Drivers of
Climate Change
20
IPCC Video on the Human

Influence on the Climate
System
Video: The video summarizes the main findings

of the 2013 IPCC Report on the physical science
basis of climate change.
URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yiTZm0y1YA&feature=youtu.be
Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change
21
Overview of Greenhouse Gases

Regulated under the Kyoto
Protocol
Greenhouse Gas
Global Warming
Potential (GWP) (over
100 years)
% of Total Anthropogenic
GHG Emissions (2010)
Carbon dioxide (CO2)
76%
Methane (CH4)
25
16%
Nitrous oxide (N2O)
298
6%
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
124-14,800
< 2%
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
7,390-12,200
< 2%
Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)
22,800
< 2%
Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3)
17,200
< 2%
Source: Reproduced from IPCC 2007 and UNEP 2012

Important Greenhouse Gases:

Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
22
Most important greenhouse gas

(contributes ~64% to total radiative
forcing by long-lived GHGs)
Half of CO2 emitted by human activities

is being absorbed in the biosphere and
in the oceans
Rest remains in the atmosphere for

hundreds to thousands of years
Source: WMO 2013

23
CO2 Concentration in the

Atmosphere and Annual Growth
Rates
Since 1750
CO2 concentration in
the atmosphere has
increased by 40%.
Source: WMO 2013


Methane (CH4)
24
Second most significant greenhouse

gas (contributes ~18% to total
radiative forcing by long-lived
GHGs)
Approximately 40% of methane is

emitted into the atmosphere by
natural sources
About 60% comes from human

activities
Stays in the atmosphere for

approximately 12 years

Source: IPCC 2007 and WMO 2013
25
CH4 Concentration in the

Rates
Since 1750
CH4 concentration in
the atmosphere has
increased by 150%.
Source: WMO 2013

In Focus: The Carbon Cycle

26
Source: UNEP

Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
27
The third most significant

greenhouse gas (contributes ~6% to
total radiative forcing by long-lived
GHGs)
Stays in the atmosphere for

approximately 114 years
Nitrous oxide is emitted into the

atmosphere from both natural (about
60%) and anthropogenic sources
(approximately 40%)
Source: IPCC 2007 and WMO 2013

28
N2O Concentration in the

Rates
Since 1750
N2O concentration in
the atmosphere has
increased by 20%.
Source: WMO 2013


Fluorinated Gases
29
Global warming effect up to 23,000

times greater than carbon dioxide
Stay in the atmosphere up to 50,000

years
Three main groups:

hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),
perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur
hexafluoride (SF6)
Mainly developed as substitutes for

ozone-depleting substances
Source: IPCC 2007. Further info
EPA, EC

Greenhouse Gases Controlled by

the Montreal Protocol
30
Montreal Protocol aimed to

phase out substances that
deplete the ozone layer
Substances regulated under the

Montreal Protocol are also
powerful greenhouse gases
For example,
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
contribute ~12% to radiative
forcing by long-lived GHGs
Source: EPA
Source: IPCC 2007 and WMO 2013. Further info: NOAA

Website
Concentration of SF6 and

Halocarbons in the Atmosphere
31
Source: WMO 2013

Human Influence on the Climate

System
32
It is extremely likely
that more than 50%
of the warming
since 1951 is due to
the increase in
greenhouse gases
and other
anthropogenic
forcings together.
Source: IPCC 2013. Further info: WMO website

33
Section 3

Observed Trends and

Impacts of Climate Change
Observed Surface Temperature

Anomaly (1850-2012)
34
Globally averaged land and ocean

surface temperature
Each of the last

three decades has
been successively
warmer at the
Earths surface than
any preceding
decade since 1850.

Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
Observed Change in Annual

Precipitation Over Land
35

Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate

Change
Observed Ocean Warming

(1950-2010)
36
More than 60% of

the net energy
increase in the
climate system is
stored in the
upper ocean
(period 19712010).


Change
Observed Ocean Acidification

37


Change
Observed Sea Level Rise

(1900 to 2010)
38
Over the period

1901 to 2010,
global mean sea
level rose by
0.19m.


Change
Observed Decrease in Arctic Sea

Ice Extent (1900-2010)
39


Change
Observed Changes in Physical and

Biological Systems
40
Source: UNEP 2009, p13


Change
Number of Events
41
In Focus: Is Climate Change to

Blame for Extreme Weather
Events?
Year
Source: UNEP
2009, p12.
Further info:
WMO Website
Change
42
Section 4

Projected Trends and

Impacts of Climate Change
In Focus: Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
43
Set of four new scenarios defined by the scientific

community for the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report.
Four RCPs include:

one mitigation scenario leading to a very low forcing
level (RCP2.6),
two stabilization scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6), and
one scenario with very high greenhouse gas
emissions (RCP8.5).
RCPs represent a range of 21st century climate

policies.

Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate

Change

Surface Temperature
44
Global surface temperature change for the end of

the 21st century is likely to reach 4C if no action is
taken.

Change

Precipitation
45
Time Period: 1986-2005 to 2081-2100

Scenario RCP 2.6
Scenario RCP 8.5


Change
Temperature and Precipitation

Projections for the 21st Century
46
Video: This NASA video shows how

temperature and precipitation patterns could
change throughout the 21st century.
URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFqO3_2dYxA
Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
Projected Change in Ocean

Surface pH
47
Time Period: 1986-2005 to 2081-2100

Scenario RCP 2.6
Scenario RCP 8.5


Change
Projected Sea Level Rise

48
Global mean
sea level will
continue to
rise during the
21st century.


Change
Projected Northern Hemisphere

September Sea Ice Extent
49
Average 2081-2100
Scenario RCP 2.6
Scenario RCP 8.5


Change
Projected Impacts of Climate Change

in Africa
50

51
Projected Impacts of Climate

Change
in Asia
Source: UNEP
2009, p34

Change

Change in Latin America
52
Source: UNEP
2009, p37

Change on Small Islands
53
Sea level rise exacerbating
inundation, storm surge,

erosion and other coastal
hazards
Reduced freshwater
resources
Invasion by non-native
species
Effects on food and income
security

Carbon Crossroads
54
Source: Cambridge
University 2013, p 14

Change
55
Global Warming by 2100 and

Beyond: A Function of Cumulative
CO2 Emissions
Limiting
climate
change will
require
substantial
and sustained
reductions of
greenhouse
gas
emissions.

Change
56
Section 5

Sources of Scientific Data
The Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC)
57
Leading body for the

assessment of
climate change
Established in 1988
by UNEP and WMO
Does not conduct

any research itself
Thousands of
scientists from all
over the world
contribute to its work

Assesses relevant
scientific, technical
and socio-economic
information
Section 5: Sources of Scientific Data
Important Reports Published by the

IPCC
Guidance
for national
greenhous
e gas
inventories
Guidance
for
assessing
impacts of
climate
change
Land use,
land-use
change and
forestry
Technical Papers
Renewable
energy
sources
Extreme
events and
disasters
Emission
scenarios
Aviation
Carbon
capture
and
storage
Methodology Reports
Assessment Reports
First
assessmen
t report
(FAR)
Second
assessmen
t report
(SAR)
Third
assessmen
t report
(TAR)
Fourth
assessmen
t report
(AR4)
Fifth
One UN assessmen
Training Service Platform
on Climate
Change: UN CC:Learn
t report
Special Reports on:
58
Climate
change and
water
Implication
s of
proposed
CO2
emissions
limitations
Technologi
es, policies
and
measures
for
mitigating
climate
change
59
World Meteorological Organization

(WMO) Global Climate
Programmes
World Climate Programme (WCP)

World Climate Research Programme
Global Climate Observing System
World Climate Services Programme
Programme of Research on Climate Change
Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation
Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme
(AREP)
Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)
Advisory Body: Commission for Climatology (CCI)

In Focus: Global Framework for

Climate Services (GFCS)
60
URL: http://www.gfcs-climate.org/content/about-gfcs
WMO Global Atmosphere Watch:

Measurement Stations Worldwide
61

WMO Regional Climate Centers

and Outlook Forums
62
WMO Regional
Climate Centres
(RCCs)
WMO Regional
Climate Outlook
Forums (RCOFs)

National Climate Data

63
National
Meteorological and
Hydrological Services
(NMHS)
Collect and manage
national climate data
to help with
forecasting and
predictions

Norfolk Island Meterological Office,

Source: Australian Government: Bureau of
Meteorology
64
Annex

Additional Resources
Module Summary
65
Weather and climate are the results of complex interactions

between anthropogenic and natural factors.
Evidence of global climate change include higher average

temperatures, changes in precipitation, ocean warming, ocean
acidification, sea level rise, decreasing sea ice, and changes in
physical and biological systems.
Observed climate change can be linked with the increase of

greenhouse gase concentrations in the atmosphere since the
industrial revolution.
Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century
is likely to reach 4C if no drastic mitigation actions are taken.
Various sources of climate data exist that can support planning for
One UNclimate
Training Servicechange.
Platform
Useful Links
66
IPCC Website
WMO Climate
Pages
Global Framework
For Climate
Services (GFCs)
World Climate
Programme (WCP)
World Bank
Climate Change
Knowledge Portal
NASA Global
Climate Change
ESA Climate
Change Initiative
NCAR Community
Data Portal
Max Planck: The

Atmosphere in the
Earth System
The Guardian
Climate Change
Pages
The National
Geographic Global Warming
UN CC:Learn

Recommended Readings
67
Cambridge University (2013). Climate Change: Action, Trends and

Implications for Business
IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013, The Physcial Science Basis Summary for Policymakers
UNEP (2009). Climate Change Science Compendium
UNEP (2009). Climate in Peril, A Popular Guide to the Latest IPCC

Reports
WMO (2013). The Global Climate 20012010, A Decade of Climate

Extremes

Main References
68
IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007 - Synthesis Report
IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013, The Physcial Science Basis Summary for Policymakers
UNEP (2009). Climate in Peril, A Popular Guide to the Latest IPCC

Reports
UNEP (2012). The Emissions Gap Report 2012
WMO (2012): Greenhouse Gas Bulletin
WMO (2009). A History of Climate Activities
WMO Website: Climate


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Module 1

Introduction to Climate Change Science

One UN Training Service Platform

1. Explain the basic

By the end of the

4. Analyze different climate

One UN Training Service Platform

3. Explain observed and

Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

One UN Training Service Platform

Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

One UN Training Service Platform

Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Source: World Meteorological Organization

Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Complexity of the Global

Source: IPCC 2007, p96. Further information: WMO

Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

What Is the Greenhouse Effect?

Source: IPCC 2007. Further info: WMO Website

Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

NASA Video on the

Video: Understand how water vapor, carbon

Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Factors Shaping the Climate

Source: NOAAA National Climatic Data Center

One UN Training Service Platform

Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Natural Climate Fluctuations

Source: NOAA. Further information: WMO Website

Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Climate Change and Global

Refers to the overall

One UN Training Service Platform

Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Observed Change in Surface

Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Tools to Predict and Project

Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Projected Change in Average

Time Period: 1986-2005 to 2081-2100

Scenario RCP 8.5

Source: IPCC 2013, p20

One UN Training Service Platform

Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Climate Change Has an Impact on:

Biodiversity, carbon storage,

fresh water, health,

Transport, buildings, lifestyle,

Equity, migration, peace and

Climate Change Science Allows

Understand how and

One UN Training Service Platform

Source: National Science Foundation

Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Why is Climate Change Science

Sound weather data and forecasts

Climate models help to forecast long

Important input for vulnerability assessments and

Fosters climate resilient development and avoids maladaption

One UN Training Service Platform

Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

History of Climate Change Science

Argument raised that the temperature of the Earth can be